S&P 500: TACO Trump or Something More Serious?After a summer of plain sailing for the S&P 500, Friday’s sell-off was the first market wobble we’ve witnessed in some time. Let’s take a look at what this means moving forward…
Tariff Turbulence Returns
Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats against China sent shockwaves through markets on Friday, triggering the S&P 500’s biggest one-day drop since April. His comments, accusing Beijing of becoming “very hostile” and vowing “massive” tariffs, reignited fears of a full-blown trade war. Investors rushed into safe havens, pushing Treasury yields lower and sending gold back toward record highs. The sell-off saw more than four in five stocks in the index finish in the red, bringing an abrupt pause to the market’s recent record-breaking run.
But as Wall Street traders know, Trump’s tariff threats don’t always end the way they start. The “Trump Always Chickens Out” or TACO trade has become a familiar playbook for traders who buy the dip after a tariff announcement, then sell the rebound when the president softens his tone. Sure enough, over the weekend Trump hinted at reconciliation, praising President Xi and calling for cooperation. That shift helped US futures rebound early Monday, as investors once again bet that the sell-off might be more bark than bite. The question now is whether this episode follows the usual TACO script or signals something deeper brewing beneath the surface.
Bearish Engulfing Shock Sets the Parameters
Friday’s daily candle tells the story best. The huge bearish engulfing candle didn’t just erase the prior week’s gains, it wrapped around several days of price action and signalled a sharp shift in sentiment. Its sheer size is significant because range expansion after a calm period often marks a turning point in market psychology. The candle’s lower wick, finding support near the 50-day moving average, shows that buyers did emerge at key trend support, but how price behaves within this range will now define the path forward.
US500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The hourly chart shows how that panic played out and how quickly traders have tried to repair the damage. The market found support before gapping higher at Monday’s open, showing a tentative attempt to stabilise. This kind of response often reveals whether a sell-off was a genuine trend reversal or a momentary flush of emotion. If price can keep grinding higher from here and close back above the midpoint of Friday’s engulfing candle, it would confirm that the uptrend remains intact and that buyers still have control.
However, if the S&P 500 stalls or consolidates in the lower half of that candle’s range, it would be a clear warning that the market’s tone has changed. Sideways price action here would imply that traders are waiting for confirmation rather than chasing rebounds, and that shift in behaviour can often lead to a second leg lower. The size of Friday’s engulfing candle now marks a battleground between short-term buyers and cautious longer-term investors. Whether we see a swift recovery or a slow grind will reveal if this was just another TACO moment or the start of something more meaningful.
US500 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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Trend Analysis
RCAT - STILL LONG AFTER FUZZY PANDAFuzzy Panda’s recent report makes several serious allegations about Red Cat Holdings, its contracts, and its products. However, much of the report is based on unverified or incomplete information, and several claims are contradicted or unsupported by public records and official statements.
1. U.S. Army Contract Size and Status
Fuzzy Panda claims that Red Cat’s U.S. Army Low-Rate Initial Production (LRIP) contract is worth only $12.9 million, far less than the company indicated.
No FOIA documentation has been publicly released to confirm this figure.
The U.S. Army’s official SRR (Short Range Reconnaissance) program announcements describe the effort as a multi-phase, multi-year initiative involving multiple tranches of funding.
Red Cat’s Teal Drones division was explicitly identified as an SRR program awardee by reputable defense publications, including Defense News and The Wall Street Journal.
It’s therefore inaccurate to suggest that Red Cat “misrepresented” the program size — the initial tranche may represent just the first phase of a much larger, ongoing procurement.
2. SRR Competition Mischaracterization
While it is true that multiple vendors are competing within the SRR program, Red Cat remains an approved SRR supplier.
Winning SRR approval is a significant technical milestone and positions Teal Drones within the Army’s trusted vendor ecosystem.
Fuzzy Panda’s framing that Red Cat has “no guaranteed work” ignores the reality that SRR vendors continue to receive orders as the program scales.
3. “FANG” Drone Allegations
The report claims that Red Cat’s FANG FPV drone is merely a rebranded consumer drone using Chinese parts.
On October 8, 2025, Red Cat officially launched FANG as an NDAA-compliant, U.S.-made tactical FPV system.
The company’s marketing materials and government-focused distribution channels support that it is a purpose-built defense drone, not a hobbyist product.
The use of certain commercial-grade components does not make a system “noncompliant” or “fake”; most U.S. defense manufacturers integrate off-the-shelf hardware where allowed under NDAA rules.
4. NATO Catalogue Listing
Fuzzy Panda downplays Red Cat’s NATO listing as “meaningless” and outdated.
It is true that Teal Drones was initially added to the NATO Support and Procurement Agency catalogue in 2023, but Red Cat renewed and expanded this listing in 2025, broadening access for member nations.
Catalogue inclusion does not guarantee sales, but it represents pre-qualification and compliance clearance, which is an important barrier for international defense vendors.
5. Accusations of Misleading Guidance
Fuzzy Panda alleges that Red Cat “misled” investors about its revenue outlook.
Red Cat’s financial projections have been clearly presented as forward-looking estimates, accompanied by appropriate risk disclosures.
There is no evidence that the company fabricated contract values or intentionally deceived investors.
As a growth-stage defense technology firm, optimistic guidance is not uncommon and should be interpreted in context.
Conclusion
Fuzzy Panda’s report raises questions but also relies heavily on speculative interpretations, unpublished data, and subjective characterizations.
The verified facts remain:
Red Cat’s Teal Drones is an approved SRR program contractor.
The FANG drone has been officially launched and marketed as NDAA-compliant.
Red Cat maintains a valid NATO procurement listing.
While the company has been ambitious in its public statements, there is no substantiated evidence of fraud or deliberate misrepresentation. Investors should weigh short-seller opinions alongside verifiable public information and the company’s direct disclosures.
IN SHORT:
---
1. Fuzzy Panda claims the Army contract is only **$12.9M** — they never publicly share the full FOIA document, so that number is unverified. While this number is real, it doesn’t automatically prove Red Cat misled investors, because guidance could include expected future tranches, options, or follow-on production — but it does confirm that the currently awarded LRIP tranche is much smaller than the $55M+ figure sometimes cited.
2. Red Cat / Teal **were publicly announced** as SRR program winners by major outlets — it’s not pure hype.
3. The fact that multiple vendors compete isn’t proof Red Cat’s role is meaningless.
4. Red Cat **officially launched FANG** as a product — so it’s not purely “marketing concept.”
5. Using some off-the-shelf components (even ones made in China) is common in aerospace; it doesn’t automatically mean fraud.
6. The NATO catalogue listing may be older (2023), but catalogue inclusion is a real procurement step, not just a press stunt.
7. Fuzzy Panda is short RCAT — their report has an obvious bias.
8. Bottom line: Fuzzy Panda raises questions, but many of their strongest claims depend on interpretations, not solid public proof.
Go for the Gold - I dare you 12 HOUR CHART:
This one of my personal charts... these days I build most of my indicators, however you cannot share them unless they published.
Up top is the RSI, super fancy I know.
The lines are extreme volume highlighted in the RSI.
This is yearly Fibonacci shown, and this is history in the making.
However you might see a problem. RSI set to 18 not 14.
Pumping the market on Columbus Day, just a tad divergent.
If you look at gold and silver as much as I do - you be alarmed how many times when you open your chart you read a news notification "safe-haven".
This is programming - its over and over. Look for yourself through the thunderbolts at the bottom of the chart.
I've highlighted some points of interest below.
The best to all of you.
GOLD – Overview | Bullish Momentum Above $4,093GOLD – Overview | Bullish Momentum Above $4,093
Gold is holding above the $4,100 mark, reaching a fresh record high as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions drive investors toward safe-haven assets.
The rally is supported by rising political and economic uncertainty, expectations of further U.S. rate cuts, and strong central-bank demand alongside continued ETF inflows.
Traders now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Philadelphia later today for clues on the next steps in monetary policy.
🕯 Technical Outlook
The price is expected to consolidate between 4,093 – 4,100 until a clear breakout.
As long as gold trades above this zone, bullish momentum is likely to extend toward 4,125 → 4,162 → 4,180.
If price closes a 1H or 15M candle below 4,093, a bearish correction may occur toward 4,058 → 4,040.
Pivot: 4,098
Support: 4,075 – 4,058 – 4,040
Resistance: 4,124 – 4,147 – 4,180
USOIL Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 58.309.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 54.034 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BTCHonestly sometimes i get blury picture, but most of it i do not fail as it comes the analysis of Bitcoin.
What i see it is how it is marked on the chart and it is pretty simple, this thing is going there pretty soon...
Probably November it will be target hit.
Lets see....
Please analyze and tell me on comments what to you think....
good luck
NFA
The last upward wave of GOLDInitially, our expectation was that wave-(i) of (E) would be a diametric, which in the analyses we said its wave-g could move up to $4200, and gold touched $4180. But a corrective wave formed from around 4058 to 3942, and given the high price similarity between the waves, the scenario of forming a symmetrical has been strengthened.
If the gold price can powerfully break above 4200, we can expect gold to continue its growth to the range of 4330-4401 dollars.
Given that we are in the final upward waves of gold, I should add one point to the above:
- Until a strong, fast, and large downward movement bigger than waves b-d-f-h occurs in the market, we cannot confirm the completion of wave-(i) of (E). In the higher degree pattern, wave-(E) in my opinion can grow at most to 4401 dollars. If this level is broken, it will not be very stable.
Long-term Analysis 👇👇
Good luck
NEoWave Chart
XMRUSD Can this Channel Up hold and push it higher?Monero (XMRUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the February 06 2024 Low and last Friday's flash crash almost tested its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
The last time this got hit was on the August 16 2025 Low, which also touched the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the market's natural Support since November 27 2024. As long as this level holds, the Channel Up will remain intact and should technically push for a new Higher High.
Ahead of a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross formation (possibly even today), we can assume that XMR will go for at least a +79.64% rally from the recent Low, which has been the 'weakest' Bullish Leg within this pattern.
That gives us a $420 Target that would match the May 26 2025 High. Technically the Bullish Leg can also complete a +128.49% rise (strongest Bullish Leg of the pattern), even go as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, again as long as the 1W MA50 holds.
If it fails to support though, be ready for a potential 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) test around $190.00.
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EURCHF: Bearish Rally Continues 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF may drop lower following a confirmed breakout
of a major horizontal support cluster.
The closest historic support is 0.9275.
With a high probability, it will be reached soon.
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Stop!Loss|Market View: GOLD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for GOLD ☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: -
💰TP: -
⛔️SL: -
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: Metals continue to demonstrate impressive results. As a result, we are seeing new all-time highs. It's difficult to find any potential buy or sell levels for gold, but we can highlight an area around 4200-4250, where sell trades, especially mid-term, are highly likely to be liquidated. This assumption is based on a 25% price move from the start of the current rally since August, as well as the point of control (POC) of the same rally around 3650. We should likely expect the end of the US shutdown, after which we could see a correction in metals.
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Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd – IPO Base Setup in ProgressAegis Vopak Terminals Ltd – IPO Base Setup in Progress
NSE:AEGISVOPAK
📈 Pattern & Setup:
Aegis Vopak is forming a textbook IPO base setup after months of sideways action. The stock is holding firmly above its base support zone of 255–265, showing multiple shakeouts that flushed out weak hands while strong buyers kept absorbing supply.
The current price action shows a breakout attempt from a descending trendline with healthy volume recovery. A close above 285 could trigger a clean breakout, opening the path toward 340–350 levels.
📝 Trade Plan:
✍Entry: Above 285 (breakout confirmation)
🚩Stop-Loss: 260 (below the base support zone)
🎯Targets:
Target 1 → 320
Target 2 → 350 (23% potential move)
💡 Pyramiding Strategy:
1. Enter with 60% position on breakout above 285
2. Add 40% above 295 once it sustains with strong volume
3. Trail stop-loss to 270 after the price crosses 310
🧠 Logic Behind Selecting this Trade:
IPO bases are often early-stage setups where institutions quietly accumulate before a big expansion. Here, the price has repeatedly tested the upper range, each time with shallower corrections — a sign of strength. The stock now appears ready for a trending phase if it breaks above resistance with conviction.
Keep Learning. Keep Earning.
Let’s grow together 📚🎯
🔴Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Please do your own research or consult your financial advisor before trading.
EURUSDEURUSD is likely just retesting the 1.13 zone before continuing its bullish move.
This pullback could be a healthy correction within the main uptrend structure.
#EURUSD #ElliottWave #ForexAnalysis #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #WaveTheory #SmartMoney #TradingSetup #ForexTrader #MarketOutlook
Ethereum Wave Analysis – 13 October 2025
- Ethereum reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 4400.00.
Ethereum cryptocurrency recently reversed up from the support zone between the key support level 3400.00 (which also reversed the price in August), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Ethereum cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 4400.00.
$BNB Price Will Hit $1,515 in this Q4 of 2025, See more chart...CRYPTOCAP:BNB Price Will Hit $1,515 in this Q4 of 2025, See more chart...The previous Resistance area is $888 and now it's Strong Support Zone. Chart is Showing the Price order block area is $999 area. The Main Enty is $1,111 this area. The Major Resistance is $1,212 area and last think this and The Dynamic Resistance is $1,313 area.
The 4 Point of Profit area. 1st Target will $1,212 area, 2nd Target will $1,313 and 3rd Target will $1,414 area, 4th Target will $1,515 area.
Stoploss will $999 area oand always use it. Never losing your all assets. just every trade using your strategy but it's will have using Stoploss and setup your Mind. The Losing Trade you will get if you don't use Stoploss on everyone.
Now Price Bounce Back $1,212 but if it's break the Resistance Area than it's will happened Fake Breakout. But price will Downfall again, if its breakout the ATH area than confirmed price goes to the $1,515 will touch Price level area.
#Write2Earn #BinanceSquareFamily #Binance #BNB #SUBROOFFICIAL
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.
$ELBM - Electra Battery Materials - $10.16 RT?NASDAQ:ELBM broke out in this morning's Pre-Market after China's Commerce Ministry announced that all foreign countries are required to gain approval to export certain products, including rare-earth materials, as well as licensing to export specific lithium batteries.
We're watching as volume consolidates going into Mid-Market for the day, to find our next potential entry points, but depending on the length of these new Chinese Export Requirements, NASDAQ:ELBM and others in the sector could benefit.
NASDAQ:ELBM found support on the $5.82 while retesting this $6.08 previous level of resistance, which we expect another level to be around the $6.84 before a potential $10.16 Retest.
#MyMIWallet
Preparing for 3 of 3 on SolanaI believe we have completed a leading diagonal on solana and are preparing to head into a 3 of 3 phase and break the massive cup and handle pyscological formation. Cup and handle target is quite high on log, $7500 range. This may be a longer term consideration, but my target range is 1k initialy, 3500 on the next leg after a consolidation around 1k.
US30 - Futures Rebound as Trump Calms U.S.–China Trade TensionsUS30 – Overview | Futures Rise as Trump Softens Tone on China
U.S. stock index futures advanced Monday, recovering from Friday’s pullback, as investors shifted back to risk assets following President Donald Trump’s softer stance on China.
Trump signaled a more measured approach, easing concerns over trade escalation after previously announcing steep tariffs and export restrictions tied to rare earth controls.
Market sentiment improved modestly, though caution remains as investors await further clarity on policy direction and upcoming U.S. data.
Technical Outlook
The Dow Jones maintains a bearish bias while trading below the pivot zone at 46,000.
As long as the price holds under this level, momentum favors downside toward 45,680 → 45,470, with increased pressure if a 1H candle closes below 45,680.
A 1H close above 46,120 would shift sentiment to bullish, targeting 46,400 → 46,630, potentially confirming a short-term reversal.
Pivot Line: 45,920
Resistance: 46,120 · 46,400 · 46,630
Support: 45,680 · 45,500 · 45,285
Summary:
US30 remains bearish below 46,000, with a possible retest of key supports at 45,680–45,470.
A break above 46,120 would invalidate the bearish view and open the way for a recovery toward 46,400.
EURAUD: Another Gap to Trade Today 🇪🇺🇦🇺
EURAUD formed a gap down opening.
My signal to buy will be a bullish breakout of a minor intraday horizontal resistance.
An hourly candle close above 1.78375 will confirm a violation,
a bullish continuation will be expected at least to 1.79 level then.
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