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Trend Analysis

Falling towards key support?Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a multi-swing high resistance. Pivot: 0.5854 1st Support: 0.5710 1st Resistance: 0.6098 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Long
by IC Markets
NATGATE - 8 RECORD SESSION LOWS ?NATGATE : CURRENT PRICE : RM1.00 - RM1.02 NATGATE has been in a corrective phase and recently printed an 8-session low, which often signals selling exhaustion and opens the door for a technical rebound. (The record session topic is discussed by STEVE NISON in his book - BEYOND CANDLESTICK , PAGE 121 - 127) A bullish piercing line appeared in Friday’s session, where buyers pushed price well into the prior bearish candle’s body. Stochastic oscillator is currently in the oversold zone, signalling a potential technical rebound. ENTRY PRICE : RM1.00 - RM1.02 FIRST TARGET : RM1.10 SECOND TARGET : RM1.22 (near EMA 200) - The EMA 200 has capped price twice, acting as strong dynamic resistance, look at the green highlighted area. SUPPORT : RM0.935 Notes : For reference, I’ve attached the link to my previous write-up related to this setup.
MYX:NATGATELong
by IMRAN_96
GOLD 09/02 – H4 ROUTE MAP | SMC STRUCTURE CONTEXTGold prices are recovering from a low balance zone after a strong sell-off at the beginning of the month. However, this is not yet a confirmation of a return to an uptrend, but rather a revaluation process in a broken structure. The current H4 is in a decisive zone: recovering to continue the decline or having enough strength to reclaim the old structure. MACRO CONTEXT – WHAT IS THE CASH FLOW THINKING? The USD maintains its strength thanks to stable US economic data and expectations that the Fed will not rush to ease. US bond yields remain high → continue to pressure gold in the medium term. Geopolitical risks still exist, but cash flow has not returned to safe havens, indicating that the market prioritizes cash flow and yields over defense. ➡️ Result: Gold has a technical rebound, but there is no strong enough catalyst to reverse the H4 trend. H4 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – WHAT THE MARKET IS DOING The previous uptrend has been broken (CHoCH down). The current recovery is just a pullback in the down structure. Prices are operating between Fibonacci + FVG, where the market often "reveals its hand." ROUTE MAP – KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH 🔴 UPPER ZONE – SELL REACTION / RESISTANCE 5050 – 5100 Fib 0.618 Technical recovery zone in the down structure → If prices reach this zone but are not accepted, the recovery is likely to end. 5220 – 5300 FVG H4 + Fib 0.786 → Only when holding above this zone will the bearish H4 scenario be invalidated. 🟢 LOWER ZONE – BUY REACTION / SUPPORT 4920 – 4950 Fib 0.5 + FVG → Balance zone, likely to see two-way reactions – prioritize observing price reactions. 4800 – 4850 Fib 0.382 + demand H4 → Important support zone if selling pressure returns. 4600 – 4400 Liquidity low → Only activated if the down structure expands. HOW LUCASGRAY VIEWS THE CURRENT MARKET News creates short-term volatility, But the H4 structure is what determines the direction. We do not chase prices. We wait for the market to react at high confluence zones to distinguish: technical recovery rhythm (intraday scalp) or acceptance of the structure for the next swing. The most beautiful upward rhythms are often where the market "traps emotions." The truth always lies in the price zone that the market dares to hold or not. Upcoming updates will focus on actual price reactions at marked zones. Follow to not miss scalp zones and important structure pivot points this week. — LucasGrayTrading
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
2
EURCAD Coiling at Resistance Breakout Brewing or Quick FakeoutEURCAD is tightening up right under a well-defined resistance band after a messy pullback from the highs. What I like here is the structure: we’ve got compression, higher reaction lows, and repeated tests into the same ceiling. That usually means pressure is building. But with CAD tied closely to oil and EUR tied to rate expectations and growth worries, this pair rarely moves on technicals alone. For me, this is a decision zone — either we get a clean break and continuation higher, or a final sweep into support before the real move. Current Bias Neutral to mildly bullish Price is compressing below resistance with short term higher lows. While still inside a broader range, the structure slightly favors an upside break attempt — provided support holds and CAD doesn’t strengthen sharply through oil. Key Fundamental Drivers EUR side: Eurozone inflation path is cooling but still watched closely by the ECB. ECB tone remains cautious, not aggressively dovish, which gives EUR some baseline support. CAD side: CAD is heavily linked to oil prices and energy exports. Recent crude inventory draws and stable oil structure lend conditional support to CAD. Rate spread dynamics: ECB vs Bank of Canada expectations are relatively close, so marginal data surprises drive this cross more than policy gaps. Macro Context Interest rate expectations: ECB is in a hold-and-watch mode on inflation. Bank of Canada is also cautious, with markets pricing gradual easing later rather than fast cuts. That keeps EURCAD more range-driven than trend-driven unless expectations shift. Economic growth trends: Eurozone growth is sluggish but stabilizing in pockets. Canada’s growth is steady but sensitive to external demand and commodities. Commodity flows: Oil is the key macro lever here. Firmer oil generally supports CAD and pressures EURCAD. Softer oil tends to lift EURCAD. Geopolitical themes: Energy route risk and sanctions policy still matter for both European energy pricing and global crude — indirectly feeding into this cross. Primary Risk to the Trend The main risk to the mildly bullish view is a sharp oil rally combined with strong Canadian data. That would strengthen CAD and likely reject EURCAD from resistance back toward range lows. On the flip side, weak Eurozone inflation or growth data could also undercut EUR quickly. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada employment and inflation data Eurozone CPI and ECB speakers Weekly oil inventory reports Any OPEC or energy market headlines These are the catalysts most likely to break the range. Leader/Lagger Dynamics EURCAD is mostly a lagger cross. It tends to follow: Oil price direction through CAD legs Broad EURUSD movement for EUR strength or weakness It can influence: Other CAD crosses like GBPCAD and AUDCAD after a move is established. Oil and EURUSD usually move first — EURCAD reacts second. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.6060–1.6080 major range support zone 1.6100–1.6120 near-term structure support Resistance Levels: 1.6200–1.6220 resistance band 1.6390 area higher breakout target Stop Loss (SL): Below 1.6060 for bullish breakout setups Take Profit (TP): TP1: 1.6200–1.6220 TP2: 1.6390 zone Summary: Bias and Watchpoints EURCAD is compressing under resistance with a neutral to mildly bullish bias as long as price holds above the 1.6060 support base. The pair is being driven by relative ECB vs BoC expectations and, more importantly, oil’s effect on CAD. A break above the 1.62 zone opens room toward 1.6390, while a loss of 1.6060 invalidates the bullish structure. The biggest watchpoints are Canadian data and oil moves — if crude strengthens hard, CAD likely leads and this setup flips from breakout candidate to rejection play.
Long
by ultreosforex
USDCHF Relief Bounce or Just a Pause Before the Next Leg Lower?USDCHF has just delivered a clean structural break on the daily chart, slicing through trend support and accelerating into a fresh low zone. What stands out to me is not just the drop, but the character of the move — sharp, impulsive, and driven by safe-haven CHF demand rather than slow drift. The current bounce looks more like a technical reaction than a confirmed reversal. Unless price can reclaim broken structure, I’m treating rallies as corrective and downside as the path of least resistance for now. Current Bias Bearish The daily structure is broken, trend support gave way, and price is now trading below the prior range base. Momentum favors continuation lower after pullbacks rather than sustained upside recovery. Key Fundamental Drivers CHF safe-haven demand: Swiss franc continues to attract flows when geopolitical and macro uncertainty rises. USD rate path: The Fed is restrictive but increasingly data-dependent. Any cooling in US inflation and jobs data reduces USD yield support at the margin. SNB stance: Swiss policy is less restrictive than the Fed, but CHF strength is often driven more by capital preservation flows than rate spreads alone. Risk tone: When equity and credit risk wobbles, CHF tends to outperform against USD. Macro Context Interest rate expectations: Fed policy remains tight, but markets are watching for the timing of eventual easing. That caps aggressive USD upside unless data re-accelerates. Economic growth trends: US growth is slowing but still holding up in services. Europe and Switzerland are softer, but CHF benefits from defensive positioning rather than growth strength. Commodity and capital flows: In periods of uncertainty, capital rotates toward defensive currencies like CHF rather than commodity FX. Geopolitical themes: Ongoing geopolitical tension and sanction/trade friction themes support intermittent safe-haven demand, which favors CHF on dips. Primary Risk to the Trend The main risk to the bearish view is a hot US inflation or labor report that reprices Fed cuts later and pushes US yields higher again. That would support USD broadly and could trigger a sharp USDCHF short squeeze. A strong global risk rally is another upside risk for USDCHF if CHF safe-haven demand fades. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US CPI and core inflation data US labor market releases Fed speaker guidance on rate timing Any major geopolitical escalation headlines These directly affect USD yield expectations and safe-haven flows. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCHF is typically a lagger pair. It often follows: Broader USD direction led by EURUSD and DXY Risk sentiment shifts seen in equities Safe-haven flows also visible in gold It can influence: CHF crosses like EURCHF and GBPCHF after the move is established. When CHF is in demand, you will often see confirmation from gold strength and softer equity tone. Key Levels Support Levels: 0.7600–0.7620 zone — current reaction low area 0.7430–0.7450 zone — next major downside target band Resistance Levels: 0.7850 area — broken structure support turned resistance 0.8000–0.8050 — upper range and descending trendline zone Stop Loss (SL): Above 0.7850 for bearish continuation setups Take Profit (TP): TP1: 0.7600 zone TP2: 0.7440 zone Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCHF has shifted into a bearish structural phase after a decisive daily breakdown, and I’m treating the current bounce as corrective unless price can reclaim the 0.7850 region. The move is supported by CHF safe-haven demand and softer forward USD rate expectations. Downside targets sit near 0.7600 first, then the 0.7440 zone if momentum continues. Invalidation for the bearish view sits above the broken structure resistance. The key watchpoint is US inflation and labor data — that’s the catalyst most likely to either extend the drop or force a sharp USD-driven reversal.
Short
by ultreosforex
$SPY & $SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Week of Feb 9–13, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Week of Feb 9–13, 2026 🌍 Market-Moving Themes 🧠 AI Capex Anxiety Returns Meta spending leak revives fears that AI margins will lag spending, reopening the hardware vs platform divide ⚙️ Pick-and-Shovel AI Trade Rising AI budgets continue to funnel into chipmakers and infrastructure suppliers rather than end platforms 📉 Crypto Trust Shock Weekend Bitcoin exchange glitch damages confidence and raises volatility risk across crypto-linked equities 📊 Data Delay Volatility Delayed labor data creates a compressed macro week with multiple releases colliding midweek 🛍️ Consumer Stress Test Retail sales, confidence, and CPI converge to define whether spending is holding up or cracking 📊 Key U.S. Economic Data & Events Feb 9–13 ET Monday Feb 9 10:50 AM Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks 1:30 PM Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks 2:30 PM Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks 5:00 PM Fed Governor Stephen Miran podcast interview Tuesday Feb 10 6:00 AM NFIB optimism index Jan: 99.5 8:30 AM Employment cost index Q4: 0.8% 8:30 AM Import price index Dec delayed: -0.1% 8:30 AM U.S. retail sales Dec delayed: 0.5% 8:30 AM Retail sales ex autos Dec: 0.3% 10:00 AM Business inventories Nov delayed: 0.2% 12:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks 1:00 PM Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks Wednesday Feb 11 8:30 AM U.S. employment report Jan: 55,000 8:30 AM U.S. unemployment rate Jan: 4.4% 8:30 AM U.S. hourly wages Jan: 0.3% 8:30 AM Hourly wages YoY: 3.7% 10:10 AM Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks 2:00 PM Monthly U.S. federal budget: -50.0B Thursday Feb 12 8:30 AM Initial jobless claims Feb 7: 222,000 10:00 AM Existing home sales Jan: 4.15M 7:05 PM Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks Friday Feb 13 — CPI DAY 8:30 AM Consumer price index Jan: 0.3% 8:30 AM CPI YoY: 2.5% 8:30 AM Core CPI Jan: 0.3% 8:30 AM Core CPI YoY: 2.5% ⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #CPI #Jobs #RetailSales #AI #Fed #Macro #Markets #Stocks #Options
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
RECAP - MSTR bounce from support perfectlyNo Reasonable Scenario' Forces Strategy To Sell Bitcoin As $440 Target Stands: TD Cowen Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR) shares surged 22% Friday as TD Cowen maintained its $440 price target, arguing there is “no reasonable scenario” forcing the company to sell Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) despite trading underwater on its holdings. The Bull Case Amid Carnage TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete said Strategy is “better positioned than ever” to participate in a potential recovery, even as the premise looks strained amid steep declines. The company’s shares are down 13.4% so far in 2026, adding to a 47.5% slump last year. The volatility looks intentional ― analysts noted Strategy’s common stock is designed to be about 1.5 times more volatile than Bitcoin. “It should come as no surprise that Strategy’s shares outperform Bitcoin when the price rises, and underperform when falling. This is, in fact, by design,” they said. On solvency concerns, TD Cowen argued Strategy has the “wherewithal to ride out a hypothetically much steeper Bitcoin rout.” They pointed to the company’s $2.25 billion cash reserve that could fund $900 million in fixed charges for nearly 17 months while covering $1 billion of convertible notes putable in 2027. The earliest trouble point appears in March 2028, when additional convertibles mature or become putable. Moreover, TD Cowen maintained Bitcoin price targets at $177,000 by December 2026 and $226,000 by December 2027. The $8K Threshold TD Cowen’s view aligns with recent Strategy executive comments. On the Q4 earnings call revealing $126 billion in losses, CEO Phong Le said Bitcoin would need to fall to around $8,000 and remain there for five to six years before Strategy faces difficulty servicing convertible debt. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor reiterated the capital structure is designed to withstand extended volatility, dismissing quantum computing threats as “horrible FUD.” The Digital Credit Engine TD Cowen highlighted Strategy’s emerging “digital credit engine” as a key thesis component. The company raised over $7 billion of preferred equity in fiscal 2025, representing 33% of all preferred equity sold in the U.S. The firm’s STRC preferred stock pays an 11.25% annualized dividend rate with daily liquidity above $118 million, providing an alternative funding mechanism beyond convertible debt. MSTR Technical Reality Strategy’s shares are up 22% Friday, bouncing after testing the critical $100-$110 support. However, the stock remains trapped in a descending channel with overhead resistance. The SAR indicator at $155.29 positions above current prices, indicating the bearish trend remains intact. Immediate resistance sits at $155, followed by $165-$175, then $200+. Additionally, the RSI at 36.45 shows bouncing from oversold but remains below 50, confirming momentum stays bearish. Support sits at $100-$110—if this fails, next support appears at $75-$85.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by KalaGhazi
USDJPY 1h | Cyclical Compression Within Rising StructurePrice continues to advance within a rising channel while exhibiting a recurring intraday cycle of approximately 44 bars. Prior cycle troughs have aligned with local pullbacks, followed by resumed expansion toward the upper boundary of structure. Recent price action shows compression near the upper channel region, with momentum oscillating rather than accelerating. This reflects phase deceleration rather than trend failure. The projected path illustrates potential structural oscillation if cycle rhythm persists, not a directional forecast. This chart documents observed recurrence, phase interaction, and structural containment. Time governs opportunity. Price responds conditionally.
by Kenayi
Heading towards Fib levels?GBP/USD is rising towards the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3650 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.3753 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.3534 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by Vantage
Bullish momentum to extend?USDX is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 96.99 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 96.31 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 97.93 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USDXLong
by Vantage
EURUSD – 1H Bullish SetupThe market is showing clear bullish momentum on the 1-hour timeframe. A well-defined bullish divergence is visible, indicating a potential continuation of the upward move. Price action suggests that buyers are gaining control. A breakout above the neckline would further validate the bullish bias and provide a potential long entry opportunity. Trade management levels (TPs and SL) have been marked on the chart in line with a structured risk management approach. Risk Management: Risk per trade should not exceed 0.5%–1% of account equity. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Trade_With_Sherry
GBPJPY - HTF Bullish | Volatility + Continuation FrameworkGBPJPY remains bullish on the higher timeframe. Higher-timeframe volatility has returned, with strong candles and volume stepping back in at key pivot areas. This supports continuation expectations rather than reversal. On the mid-term timeframe: • Internal liquidity has been taken • External liquidity from both the mid-term and higher-timeframe ranges has been cleared This was evident through multiple wicks that engineered liquidity before delivering bullish footprints, ultimately breaking previous weekly highs and reinforcing directional intent. Trendlines are applied strictly as guardrails — used only to visually track whether the higher-timeframe bullish structure and momentum remain healthy during pullbacks. After internal inducement is completed, my expectation is for price to mitigate into the accumulation area. From there, execution will only be considered after lower-timeframe structure confirms alignment. Mitigation alone is not enough. Trendline interaction alone is not enough. A clear structure shift is required so that participation stays aligned with momentum and higher-timeframe intent. For now: • Short-term bearish momentum = corrective • Bias remains bullish • No forced execution This is a phase of observation and tracking as price develops. Patience is the key. Tracking remains the edge.
Long
by Juicemannn
JPY - HTF Bullish | Continuation Framework in PlayThe Japanese Yen remains bullish on the higher timeframe. Price has broken major higher highs, establishing a clear stair-step uptrend. During this process, liquidity was turned and taken, followed by a clean mitigation of the mid-term order block, which had been well-refined over the weekend. Price reacted decisively from that zone, breaking highs and confirming a lower-timeframe market structure shift in favor of continuation. At this stage, I am not chasing price. My expectation is for price to: • distribute • rebalance • fill nearby inefficiencies • and mitigate the order block sitting beneath minor internal liquidity Once that corrective process is complete and alignment is confirmed, I will look for continuation toward the next set of highs. Trendlines are applied strictly as guardrails, not as trade signals — used only to monitor whether the higher-timeframe trend remains healthy and intact during the pullback. As the market opens this week: • No anticipation • No forcing execution • Observation over action Patience is the key. Tracking is the edge.
Long
by Juicemannn
Dense data. Focus on the fluctuation range.On Friday, gold staged a V-shaped reversal, strengthening due to bargain buying and a weaker dollar, ultimately closing up 4%. Next week will be a crucial week this month, with a flurry of data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. After the market experienced a sharp decline, it entered a period of wide-ranging fluctuations this week, and this volatile trend is expected to continue for some time. However, it's important to note that the short-term high of 5600 and low of 4400 are unlikely to be breached; the market will likely fluctuate between the secondary high and low points. However, there will be a lot of data next week, which will likely intensify the market correction. From the 4-hour chart, gold is currently facing short-term resistance around 5020-5030, while the key support level is around 4800. Gold is likely to continue fluctuating within this range next week until a new driving event or data event breaks this equilibrium and establishes a new trend. However, regardless of whether a new market trend begins, the overall bullish pattern for gold remains unchanged. Looking at the daily chart, gold's lows are rising, ultimately forming a converging pattern upwards. In terms of trading strategy, continue to focus on the overall range, prioritizing conservative trading with strict stop-loss orders to prevent sudden market changes from causing account losses.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Gold_Traders_