Trend Analysis
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Reversal Entry Detected )⚡Base : Hanzo Trading Alpha Algorithm
The algorithm calculates volatility displacement vs liquidity recovery, identifying where probability meets imbalance.
It trades only where precision, volume, and manipulation intersect —only logic.
Technical Reasons
/ Direction — LONG / Reversal 4917 Area
/ Direction — LONG / Reversal 4863 Area
☄️Bullish momentum confirmed through strong candle body.
☄️Structure shifted with higher-low near key demand base.
☄️Volume expanding confirms order-flow alignment upward.
☄️Buyers reclaimed imbalance with sustained clean break.
☄️Algorithm detects rising momentum under low liquidity.
⚙️ Hanzo Alpha Trading Protocol
The Alpha Candle defines the day’s real control zone — the first battle of momentum.
From this origin, the Volume Window reveals where the next precision strike begins.
⚙️ Hanzo Volume Window / Map
Window tracked from 10:30 — mapping true market behavior.
POC alignment exposes institutional bias and breakout potential zones.
⚙️ Hanzo Delta Window / Pulse
Delta window monitors real buying vs. selling power behind each move.
Tracks volume aggression to expose who controls the candle — buyers or sellers.
When Delta aligns with Volume Map, momentum becomes undeniable.
Bitcoin Cash: Signs Of A Potential Bottom FormingBitcoin Cash (BCH) appears to be in the final stages of a higher-degree A-B-C irregular flat correction, labeled as wave (2) on the daily chart. Price recently tested a strong support zone and responded with a sharp rebound, suggesting that corrective pressure may be fading and that wave (2) could already be complete.
On the 4-hour chart, BCH seems to have completed a five-wave bearish impulse within wave C of the correction. This type of structure often signals downside exhaustion, increasing the probability that a meaningful support level is now in place. A recovery and hold above the 563 level would further strengthen this bullish case.
For now, however, the recovery is best viewed as a minimum three-wave move, as bullish momentum has not yet been fully confirmed. From a technical perspective, a clear break and acceptance above the 670 area would be required to confirm a broader trend reversal rather than a temporary corrective bounce.
Key Levels to Watch
Support: Recent wave C lows
Initial confirmation: Above 563
Bullish confirmation: Above 670
Until price reclaims the upper resistance zone, BCH may continue to consolidate or recover in a corrective manner. Still, the completed wave structure and sharp rebound from support suggest that downside risk is increasingly limited, making this area technically important for upcoming price action.
BTCUSDT Long: Descending Channel Breakout - Demand HoldingHello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of BTCUSDT (2H) based on the current chart structure. Bitcoin previously traded within a well-defined consolidation range, where price moved sideways for an extended period. This ranging phase reflected a temporary balance between buyers and sellers and allowed liquidity to build above and below the range boundaries. Eventually, this equilibrium resolved to the downside, triggering a strong bearish impulse. After the range breakdown, BTC entered a clean descending channel, characterized by consistent lower highs and lower lows. Price respected both the upper and lower channel boundaries well, confirming controlled bearish pressure rather than emotional selling. This structured decline indicates that sellers remained in control while buyers were only able to generate short-lived pullbacks. The bearish move culminated at a clear pivot low, where selling momentum exhausted and aggressive buyers stepped in. From this pivot point, Bitcoin produced a sharp bullish reaction, breaking decisively above the descending channel, which marked a meaningful structural shift from bearish continuation to recovery. Following the breakout, price impulsively rallied and reclaimed key levels before reaching the Supply Zone around 71,700, where bullish momentum temporarily stalled. This level acted as a logical resistance, leading to a pullback.
Currently, BTC is consolidating above the Demand Zone and along the rising demand line, suggesting that the retracement is corrective rather than the start of a new bearish trend. Multiple reactions from this demand area indicate active buyer interest and defense of the level, reinforcing the idea of a developing higher-low structure. As long as price holds above the Demand Zone and respects the rising demand line, the broader bias remains cautiously bullish.
My primary scenario favors upside continuation after consolidation. A sustained hold from demand opens the door for a renewed push toward the 71,700 supply level (TP1), which represents the first major upside target and a logical area for partial profit-taking. A clean breakout and acceptance above this supply zone would confirm bullish continuation and signal potential expansion toward higher highs. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below the Demand Zone and loss of the rising demand line would invalidate the bullish recovery scenario and suggest a deeper corrective move. Until such confirmation appears, the current market structure points to balance with a bullish continuation bias from demand. Manage your risk!
Silver (XAGUSD) — H4 Formation of a Potential 3rd Wave + TrendliSilver (XAGUSD) — H4 Formation of a Potential 3rd Wave + Trendline Break (Bearish Continuation)
🔎 Market Structure (H4)
On the H4 timeframe, Silver has formed the technical conditions for a bearish continuation through a potential 3rd wave, confirmed by:
• a breakout of the ascending trendline
• completion of the corrective phase (Wave 2) near local resistance
• rejection from the upper structure zone
• loss of short-term bullish control inside the channel
• transition into an impulsive bearish scenario after the breakdown
The current price action matches a classic Elliott Wave impulse model, where the 3rd wave often accelerates after the market exits a corrective structure and breaks trend support.
📐 Elliott Wave Context
• Wave 1: initial impulsive decline
• Wave 2: corrective retracement back into resistance
• Wave 3: potential impulsive expansion to the downside (current scenario)
📌 Key principle:
The bearish scenario remains valid as long as price stays below the high of Wave 1.
📍 Entry
Entry: 81.37325
The entry is positioned:
• below the broken trendline
• within the impulse activation zone
• after rejection from the local resistance area
• aligned with continuation pressure after the breakdown
🎯 Target Levels (Wave 3 Projections)
Targets are derived from projected impulse expansion zones and key support reaction levels:
TP1: 75.06756
TP2: 68.75298
TP3: 60.17762
TP4: 50.82269
Each target represents a potential reaction zone and a logical level for partial profit-taking during the development of the 3rd wave.
🛑 Invalidation / Stop Loss
Stop Loss: 86.97515
📍 The stop is placed above the high of Wave 1, which:
• invalidates the 3rd wave scenario if breached
• protects against a reversal into an alternative bullish structure
• follows Elliott Wave risk logic (Wave 3 cannot start if Wave 1 high is broken)
🧠 Risk & Trade Management
Trend-following setup
Wave 3 is typically the strongest phase, but also the most volatile and fast-moving.
Recommended approach:
• partial profits at TP1 / TP2
• move stop to breakeven after momentum confirmation
• avoid increasing risk during choppy pullbacks
• consider scaling only after clean continuation candles and structure confirmation
📌 Summary
XAGUSD on H4 shows a trendline break and technical signals of a potential 3rd wave to the downside.
The bearish scenario remains valid below 86.97515, with downside targets aligned to projected impulse expansion levels.
ETH PERPETUAL TRADE SELL SETUP Short from $1985 ETH PERPETUAL TRADE
SELL SETUP
Short from $1985
Currently $1985
Targeting $1944 or Down
(Trading plan IF ETH
go up to $2040 will add more shorts)
Follow the notes for updates
In the event of an early exit,
this analysis will be updated.
Not a Financial advice
DAX40will dax40 claim 25443 supply roof ?? or will it continue uptrend into upper supply roof ??
what is dax40???
The DAX 40 is Germany's primary stock market index. It tracks the performance of the 40 largest and most liquid blue-chip companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
Formerly the DAX 30, it expanded to 40 constituents in September 2021 to better represent the German economy across sectors like industrials, tech, pharma, and finance. The index is a total return benchmark, meaning it includes reinvested dividend. It's managed by Deutsche Börse and reviewed periodically based on market cap, liquidity, and profitability criteria.
Key Constituents
Major companies include Siemens, SAP, Allianz, Deutsche Telekom, Airbus, and Bayer, spanning automotive, insurance, chemicals, and telecom sectors.
dax40 serves as key European market barometer for forex traders .
DAX40 VS ECB rate
ECB interest rate decisions significantly influence the DAX 40 by altering borrowing costs, investor sentiment, and economic growth prospects for its export-heavy companies. Rate cuts typically boost the index, while hikes or pauses can pressure it.
Rate Cuts Boost DAX
Lower ECB rates reduce corporate borrowing costs, enhancing profitability for DAX firms in sectors like industrials, autos, and finance. They make stocks more attractive versus bonds, driving inflows and often pushing the index to records—as seen after 2025's 25 bps cuts to 2.65%. A weaker euro from cuts also aids exporters like Siemens and Volkswagen.
Rate Hikes or Pauses Pressure DAX
Higher rates raise financing expenses, slowing investment and curbing growth-sensitive stocks in the index. Prolonged hawkish policy fuels recession fears, leading to sell-offs in cyclicals; for example, ECB pauses in 2025 amid 2.1% inflation kept volatility high despite stimulus. Export competitiveness suffers if the euro strengthens.
The DAX 40 and EU10Y
The EU10Y (Eurozone 10-year government bond yield, often proxied by German Bunds) share an inverse relationship driven by investor risk appetite, discount rates, and monetary policy signals.
Inverse Correlation
Rising EU10Y yields typically pressure the DAX 40 downward, as higher yields signal tighter policy or inflation fears, making bonds more competitive with stocks and increasing corporate discount rates. Historical data shows a modest negative correlation: around -0.25 monthly and -0.30 weekly between DAX prices and German 10Y yields, reflecting competition for capital. On February 10, 2026, EU10Y eased to 2.83%, supporting DAX stability amid ECB holds.
Key Drivers
Yield spikes hurt growth stocks (e.g., SAP, Siemens) by raising borrowing costs and valuation multiples.
Falling yields boost equities, as seen in ECB cut cycles, by favoring risk assets and weakening the euro for exporters.
Volatility rises during ECB events, with Bond yields as a real-time policy gauge influencing DAX flows.
#DAX40 #GER40
PREPARING TO BUY INTO G/UGBP/USD 30M - As you can see price is looking good for potential long positions, I want to see price just pullback now that we have had a fractal break to the upside.
The pullback is price setting a higher low before it goes on to set a new higher high, this is where we would look to buy into this market from. Giving us the ability to get involved with a refined entry.
Once price trades in and clears this area its then just a case of waiting on price to reject this area of interest, once we have that we have means to enter in on this market.
I will be setting my SL just below the zone I get involved from, my TP will be set just below the last high that was created, this guarantees that our TP can be achieved, I will keep you all posted.
GOLD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 5063.1
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 5080.3
My Stop Loss - 5053.9
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 1H Technical AnalysisU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 1H Technical Analysis
Timeframe: 1-Hour Chart
1. Market Structure Overview
The DXY is currently trading around 96.83, following a clear rejection from major higher-timeframe resistance near 97.80–98.00. Price has transitioned from a bullish structure into a short-term bearish phase after:
A double rejection at the main resistance zone
A confirmed breakout failure above prior resistance (~97.20)
A subsequent Change of Character (CHoCH) signaling momentum shift
The broader structure shows distribution at highs and a controlled decline toward key support.
2. Key Technical Zones
🔵 Main Resistance: 97.75 – 98.00
Strong supply zone
Multiple rejections (circled areas)
Likely institutional distribution
Remains valid until clean breakout and sustained acceptance above
🔵 Intermediate Resistance: ~97.20
Prior breakout level turned resistance
Clean rejection after retest
Now acting as short-term upside target
🟢 Main Support: 96.30 – 96.50
Higher-timeframe demand zone
Recent bullish reaction (long lower wick + impulse bounce)
Currently defending downside
3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Perspective
FVG (Fair Value Gap) formed during previous bullish leg — later mitigated.
Break of Structure (BOS) occurred to the downside after resistance rejection.
CHoCH confirms short-term bullish attempt after support reaction.
Liquidity likely rests:
Below 96.30 (sell-side liquidity)
Above 97.20 (buy-side liquidity)
Market appears to be in a range compression phase between 96.40 and 97.20 before expansion.
4. Current Price Behavior
Price is consolidating above main support after a sharp rebound. The structure suggests:
Short-term accumulation near support
Potential liquidity sweep toward 96.40 before expansion
Compression pattern often precedes impulsive move
Momentum is neutral-to-slightly bullish on lower timeframe after support defense.
5. Trading Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Preferred While Above 96.30)
Potential dip into 96.40–96.50 (liquidity grab)
Bullish confirmation on lower timeframe
Target 1: 97.00
Target 2: 97.20 (range high / resistance)
Extended target: 97.75 (main resistance)
Invalidation: Sustained break and close below 96.30.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If 96.30 breaks decisively:
Liquidity flush toward 96.00–95.80
Continuation of short-term bearish structure
Broader correction within higher timeframe distribution
6. Conclusion
The DXY is trading inside a defined range between 96.30 (support) and 97.20 (resistance) after rejecting major higher-timeframe supply at 98.00.
Current structure favors a short-term bullish retracement toward 97.20, provided support continues to hold. However, the broader context still reflects distribution near major resistance, meaning upside may remain corrective unless 97.75–98.00 is reclaimed.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information presented is based on technical analysis and market structure interpretation at the time of writing. Financial markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
Bitcoin in Bottom Range with Ability to move but just waiting
This really is just a waiting game right now.
We may wait for months before a REAL push higher
Initially, we wait for the USA Inflation data tomorrow and it is worth noting there is no FOMC meeting in Feb, so the next Rates decision will be on March 17 - 18.
So, while Bitcoin is rarely directly effected by Rates (See Circle in chart below ), The effect of Rates is more on the Companies in the Bitcoin world, like the ones that collapsed in 2022.
However, Inflation data DOES make an impact
So, where is Bitcoin right now ?
PA has Dropped since ATH and currently in the C wave of an ABC correction, that has the potental to go to around 50K. This followed the 12345 Elliot waves up to ATH.
Perfect PA
On the main chart
we see PA bounced off the Value Area Low of the VRVP ( Red Dash)
The White Dotted line is the Area of the 2021 ATH.. PA Should not Drop Much below this area normaly..
The Point of Control ( POC Red Dotted line ) is an aera of High trading volume. Resistance as we rise.
The Orange Dash line at the top is the Value Area High of Trading Volume and is also the current ATH line.
And the Red Line that has been falling with PA is the 50 Daily SMA - THIS needs to be crossed and Held again to be Truly Bullish, at a currentl price line around 87K
So, We ARE in the final stage of correction but we simply do not know how Deep .
However, we can look at other data and get an idea.
Bitcoin IS Oversold. The Daily MACD is just one that shows us how deeply Over Sold.
MACD looks like this on many Timeframes.....But we should remember that MACD being this Low does NOT guarantee a Rise but it can certainly point towards Ranging. Notice the Histogram bars getting smaller and White, showing increased potential for moves higher.
The RSI is also Down Low
Simply showing Room to move higher under the right circumstances.
This environment is created by Fear..People Selling and Capitulating......
We can see this below....
The SOPR ( Spent Output Profit Loss ) Shows us the Volume of Coins sold at a profit or Loss.....and we see a Lot of people selling at a Loss, for fear of Price continuing to Drop.
Bitcoin is being Sold a Lot...It is Over Sold.
This drops price, creates Fear and uncertainty. PERFECT Buying opportunity
These coins are being Bought back by others ..Cheap Bitcoin....
I'll End on this Chart
The weekly Version
Green SMA - 9
Red SMA - 50
Blue DMS - 100
Yellow SMA - 200
PA fell through the 9, 50 amd 100 in a simialr way to in 2021 but in a quicker time period.
That was most likely due to how PA had "ranged" for a year before a little push to ATH..Cooler Calmer PA.
And I see the same now....
PA is currently above the 200, having bounced off it. PA fell directly throuh it in 2021.
And I can see PA ranging inbetwen that 1.768 Fib Extension and the Green Bar for the remainder of this Bear Run...A similar range to what we saw in 2024....as mentioned previously.
The Daily
And what are we waiting For ?
For PA to break over and Hold that 9 SMA and on Friday, we may see PA do that if the inflation figures are acceptable.
If not, We may hit the 200 Weekly SMA again
As we have seen, we have FEAR in the Market and Clever Money is Buying the Sold Coins.
PA is over Sold and has abi;ity to push higher, even if it is just to remain in Range.
PA is near the Bottom on so many Chart lines and this includes the Ascending channel.
PA has NEVER fallen out of that channel and Currently, the base is around 60K
Enjoy, we Have past most of the painful stages.
We just waiting,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
USDCAD | FRGNT DAILY FORECAST | Q1 | W6 | D12 | Y26📅 Q1 | W6 | D12 | Y26
📊 USDCAD | FRGNT DAILY FORECAST |
🔍 Analysis Approach
I’m applying a developed version of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured focus on:
• Identifying Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
• Using those POIs to define a clear and controlled trading range 📐
• Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
• Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) as confirmation ✅
This process keeps me precise, disciplined, and aligned with market narrative, rather than reacting emotionally or chasing price.
💡 My Motto
“Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge.”
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, combined with a high-probability execution model, is the backbone of any sustainable trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ On Losses
Losses are part of the mathematical reality of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they are necessary, expected, and managed.
We acknowledge them, learn, and move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Further context and supporting material can be found in the Links section.
Stay sharp 🧠
Stay consistent 🎯
Protect your capital 🔐
— FRGNT 🚀📈
FX:USDCAD
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Support Hold & Continuation Toward Premium ResistanceChart Analysis
On the 1H timeframe, Gold is showing a bullish continuation setup after a corrective phase.
Market Structure
Price previously made a strong impulsive drop, then mitigated the FVG (fair value gap) around the 4,65x–4,75x area.
After mitigation, price formed higher lows, signaling a shift from bearish correction to bullish intent.
Current structure is range-to-expansion rather than trendless chop.
Key Levels
Support zone (≈ 5,000–5,030)
This area has been:
Previously resistance
Successfully flipped into support
Multiple candle rejections confirm buyers defending the level
Resistance / Target zone (≈ 5,220–5,260)
Clear supply zone
Likely resting liquidity from prior highs
Logical bullish target if support holds
Trade Idea Logic (as drawn)
Entry: Near support after consolidation
Bias: Bullish continuation
Target: Premium resistance zone
Rationale:
Support hold
Higher-low structure
Previous imbalance already mitigated
Price building acceptance before expansion
What Would Invalidate This Setup
A clean H1 close below the support zone
Loss of higher-low structure → opens risk of deeper retrace toward the FVG again
Overall Bias
📈 Bullish while above support
This is a classic buy-the-dip into support → target premium liquidity setup.
US 500 Index – Struggling for Momentum Against Record HighsIt’s been a choppy week for the US 500 index so far, with prices jumping around in a 1.3% range between lows at 6901, seen at the start of the week, and highs of 6992, briefly seen after the release of a much stronger than expected US Non-farm Payrolls report yesterday afternoon.
While the jobs report provided good news for traders in one sense by adding support to the theory that the US economy remains resilient, which may boost corporate earnings in the near term, it also dented market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the first half of 2026 as well. This repricing, alongside the on-going shift out of software stocks that may be negatively impacted by the progress of AI, combined to help to cap the US 500 ahead of its recent record highs at 7015.
In terms of interest rates, the US central had already signaled at their January meeting that there were reasons to pause and evaluate incoming economic data readings before deciding on their next move, meaning yesterday’s jobs report will probably need to be assessed against Friday’s US CPI release (1330 GMT).
This latest inflation update could now take on even more significance for US 500 traders, who may currently be more sensitive to any reading that shows prices accelerating above expectations, an outcome that may keep the Fed from cutting interest rates for even longer than currently anticipated.
The technical outlook could also be important for the direction of the US 500 index moving into the weekend and the start of next week.
Technical Update: Is the Recovery Stalling Against the 7015 All-Time High?
Since the US 500 index posted its all‑time high at 7015 on January 28th, price action has turned choppy. The index fell more than 4% from that peak before staging a recovery, reaching 6992 on Wednesday following the delayed payrolls data release.
Despite the strength of the recent rebound, the US 500 index has so far been unable to break back above the 7015 all‑time high. Selling pressure has re‑emerged at this area, slowing the advance and signalling a possible loss of positive momentum. Some traders may view this as an early sign that the rally is stalling, raising the risk of fresh downside pressure and even a deeper corrective phase.
There is still no clear evidence of sustained strength or weakness, leaving directional bias uncertain. For now, the focus remains on monitoring key support and resistance levels to determine where the next meaningful move may emerge.
Assessing Potential Support Levels:
If, and it remains speculative at this stage, upside momentum continues to fade and fresh declines emerge, a meaningful support break on a closing basis would be needed to increase downside risks. The focus now turns to 6858, which represents a 50% retracement of the latest recovery and may act as a potential pivot level.
If a more extended decline were to unfold and prices close below the 6858 support level, downside pressure could be possible. The next support zone to monitor could then be 6716/30, which captures the December 18th and February 6th lows. A break beneath this area could raise the risk of further declines toward 6508, the November 21st low.
Assessing Potential Resistance Levels:
For now, the 6858 support level remains intact, as it has not been broken on a closing basis. This keeps open the possibility of renewed attempts at price strength. If upside pressure rebuilds, the initial focus might turn to the 6992 February 11th high, followed by the 7015 all-time extreme.
It may well be that only a closing break above this 6992/7015 resistance band could revive discussion of renewed positive momentum and open scope for a push to higher levels. As the chart above highlights, sustained closes above 7015 could shift focus toward 7082, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension, and potentially even 7180, the higher 61.8% level.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Coinranger|BTCUSDT. Uncertainty at 67200🔥News
🔹US unemployment data will be released at 16:30 UTC+3. It will be important if the actual numbers differs significantly from the forecast.
🔥BTC
🔹There are some changes on levels:
1️⃣ The dynamic level above is 68300. There is some possibility of a sharp upward move to 72000, but there is no news background yet.
2️⃣ 65100 and 64000 below are relevant. Downward movement still has a priority.
Selling trades should be making cautionly today, although the priority for a downward move remains, there is a possibility of sharp price surges upward.
---------------
Share your thoughts in the comments!
XAUUSD– Brian liquidity compression before expansionGold (XAUUSD) is currently trading in a controlled consolidation phase on H1, holding above the 4980 buy-side value area while remaining capped below key sell-side liquidity.
From a structural perspective, the market is not trending — it is building liquidity.
🔎 Technical Structure Breakdown
Price is compressing between:
Buy VAL 4980
Sell VAL 5237
Strong liquidity / POC zone 5529
This creates a classic liquidity trap environment where both sides are waiting for expansion.
The higher timeframe recovery from February lows remains valid, but upside continuation requires acceptance above 5237. Until then, gold remains in rotational behavior.
🌍 Macro Context – Fed Expectations Shift
Strong US January employment data has effectively removed expectations for a March Fed rate cut, according to Monex macro research. This strengthens short-term USD positioning and reduces immediate upside momentum for gold.
However, markets still anticipate potential easing around June. This creates a mixed environment:
Short-term: USD supported → gold capped
Medium-term: easing cycle still alive → structural support remains
This explains why gold is consolidating rather than collapsing.
📌 Key Levels To Watch
4980 – Intraday buy value area
5237 – Sell value area
5529 – Major liquidity / expansion target
Holding above 4980 keeps structure stable.
Failure to break 5237 keeps price rotational.
Acceptance above liquidity unlocks expansion.
🎯 Trading Perspective
In this environment, the strategy remains clear:
Trade liquidity reactions
Avoid mid-range entries
Wait for confirmation at extremes
Gold is not weak — it is compressing.
And compression always precedes expansion.
📍 Follow Brian on TradingView for structured XAUUSD liquidity analysis and macro-aligned technical insights.
DJI - Long Term Trend Line Needs To Be Respected I dont think a bull run like this is sustainable, ever since the vertical line the dow has moved way above the dominant trend line. I want to see a retest of this trend line again.
Small dips can be seen in 2000, 08, allowing a small trend line down to be made in white dotted line.
A third move down is coming I believe, just a matter of when.
GBPUSD WEEKLY CHARTGBPUSD close the week at 1.36092
GBPUSD market structure on weekly ,if the buying breaks and close .1.36899,scale to 15min look for long position.
key buy order
buyfloor 1.32081 stoploss 50pips max.
buy floor 1.28700 stoploss 100pips max
key demand floor 1.2105-1.21167
GBPUSD technical trading information's.
GB10Y=4.515%
BOE Current Bank Rate =3.75%
Next due: 19 March 2026 current inflation in uk 3.4% target 2%
Head of bank of england.Andrew Bailey is the current Governor of the Bank of England.
Role and Term
He assumed the position on March 16, 2020, with his eight-year term running until March 15, 2028. Bailey oversees monetary policy, financial stability, and the Monetary Policy Committee, which sets the UK's base rate.
Background
Previously CEO of the Financial Conduct Authority (2016-2020) and Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation at the Bank of England, Bailey brings extensive experience in regulation and crisis management from the 2008 financial crash. Recent statements affirm his commitment to serve out his full term despite political speculation.
USD outlook.
The Federal Reserve's latest FOMC meeting on January 28, 2026, maintained the federal funds target range at 3.5%–3.75%. Monetary policy outlook emphasizes data-dependent decisions amid solid growth, stabilizing unemployment, and somewhat elevated inflation, with potential for future adjustments if risks to employment or 2% inflation emerge
US10y=4.208%
head of federal reserve=Jerome H. Powell remains Chair, leading the January vote, though President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as successor on January 30, 2026—pending confirmation.
interest rate differential=0.25%-0% favour gbp long
bond yield differential=4.515%-4.208%= 0.307%
carry trade advantage= favour gbp long
the technical will be hinging on next mpc outlook in march, considering the current bullish impulse of dollar index on the descending trendline. If dollar continues to see growth than we will be cautious of GBPUSD long.
overall GBPUSD favour long.
Goodluck
#GBPUSD #gb10y #us10y #dxy #dollar






















