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Uncertainty

FINALLY! GOLD COMPLETES THE RISK-OFF *3* - !SHORT EQUITIES!Finally Gold completes the market risk-off 3 for rallying... we not have JPY, BONDS and GOLD all rallying - this completes the set of 3 -riskoff indicators, we are now in full bear mode for stock markets imo.. as you can tell from the US Treasuries and JPY, these riskoff assets have been gaining value for some time, gold has been lagging behind but today following a poor NFP print but STRONG Unemployment print. IMO gold is rallying higher as the probability for a fed hike becomes higher since unemployment is their target measure along with inflation (and not NFP as some will believe). with all 3 riskoff assets rallying this means there CANNOT be enough liquidity in the market to push risk assets (SPX/NAS100/DJ30) to new highs as well - its all but a 0 sum game - the liquidity to push JPY BONDS and GOLD higher MUST have come from risk assets. I believe this will be the end of the modest bull run for equities #downwego probably starting next week. A movement lower in equities at his point is well served - we have many high risk events coming up and i believe people will be getting out of risk and into safety starting next week given 1: fed on the 16th 2. brexit on the 23rd and also BOJ on the 16th (along with a slew of other Central banks also due to declare their monetary policy). Given the above uncertainties/ Risks NOW seems a perfect time for investors to flee to safety and for the SPX to follow suit 5-10% lower in the coming weeks. As per my previous articles this answers all of the questions, we now have enough uncertainty momentum to push gold UP and stocks down IMO.. the paradoxical bonds/jpy AND stocks higher will come to an end in the coming days with STOCKS selling off for at least 4 weeks. PLease see the attached articles for more information.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
MACRO VIEW: XLF AT MACRO UNCERTAINTY, STILL RECOVERING FROM 2008Financial SPDR ETF is still recovering from 2008 losses and did not make it back in terms of prices. On long term basis - XLF has only recently crossed back the 10-year mean upwards (now at 21.50) and have been in 5-year uptrend until the recent August selloff. Currently it is trading within 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean, showing no macro trend. On short term basis - XLF is also showing no trend, as the price is trading within 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means. In summary, the 5-year uptrend will resume only after price will cross back 24 (5-year uptrend border). Until then, trend is lateral.
AMEX:XLF
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VIEW: XLE AT MACRO UNCERTAINTY, ON DOWNTREND RISKEnergy SPDR ETF is at macro uncertainty with a prospect of continued fall (much like the oil market) On long term basis - XLE is trading below its 10-year mean at 68.5, signalling uncertainty - as price close to a long term means indicates an outlier event, with institutional traders unsure of what to do with the stock. The price is also close to a potential macro downtrend, as it trades close to 5-year downtrend border at 66 (lower 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean) On short term basis - XLE confirms the downward risk, as price is trading very close to 1-year downtrend border at 67.5 (lower 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean). Thus if price falls below 67.5 it will have good probability of falling below 66, entering a downtrend on 5-year basis.
AMEX:XLE
by Killy_Mel
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: WMT @ MACRO UNCERTAINTY, AT SHORT TERM RISK For WallMart stocks, 2015 was not a good year so far... Trading between macro means on long term basis, price signalling uncertainty. Price has recently failed 5-year mean at 69 and is now between it and 10-year mean at 60. No trend on macro basis is an outlier, indicating that currently long term institutional investors are unsure regarding this company. On short term basis WMT is on a risk of further decline, as it is trades below 1st st deviation from mean. The short term level is above 5 year mean, so as long as price will be trading below 69, it risks to fall onto the 10-year mean at 60
NYSE:WMTShort
by Killy_Mel
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: VERIZON IN UNCERTAINTY, ON SHORT TERM RISKAt least stock price wise, not all is looking good for Verizon... Trading between macro means on long term basis, price signalling uncertainty. Price has recently failed 5-year mean at 44 and is now between it and 10-year mean at 38. No trend on macro basis is an outlier, indicating that currently long term institutional investors are unsure regarding this company. On short term basis VZ is on a risk of further decline, as it is trades below 1st st deviations from both quarterly and yearly means Both short term levels are above 5 year mean, so as long as price will be trading below 44, it risks to fall onto the 10-year mean at 38
NYSE:VZShort
by Killy_Mel
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: UTX IN MACRO UNCERTAINTY, ON SHORT TERM RISKUnited Technologies in a very risky situation... On long term basis price is trading between 10-year and 5-year means. Price close to macro means is actually an outlier, an indication of uncertainty of major market participants and investors regarding the stock. On short term basis price is currently on downward risk, as it trades below the 1st standard deviation form both 1-year mean and quarterly means - at 98 and 89 respectively - indicating downtrends on yearly and quarterly basis basis.
UShort
by Killy_Mel
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: PG AT MACRO UNCERTAINTY, SHORT TERM RISKProcter & Gamble is in uncertain situation on macro basis. On long term basis price is trading between 10-year and 5-year means. Price close to macro means is actually an outlier, an indication of uncertainty of major market participants and investors regarding the stock. On short term basis price is currently on downward risk, as it trades below the 1st standard deviation form 1-year mean @ 75.3 - indicating a downtrend on yearly basis.
NYSE:PG
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VIEW: SNP LIKELY TO FALL WITHIN WIDER LATERAL RANGEOn technical basis, SPY (The S&P500 ETF) has broken down below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days), while also breaking below 1 year mean (264 days). The price has now entered a downtrend on quarterly basis, and will continue to fall if price stays below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (207.1) Closest target is the lower 1st st deviation from 1 year mean (197.70) After the target is tagged, price will likely stay within 1st standard deviation from 1 year mean for some time (range will be 197.7 - 212.5) SPY is mostly influenced by upcoming September uncertainty, caused by upcoming US policy decision in regard to Iran (to leave it sanctioned or to open it up).
AMEX:SPYShort
by Killy_Mel
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