UPS Trade Update ~ +4.2% Since Entry ~ $134 Target IntactOverview
Our November 26 entry on UPS at $95 is performing as expected. Price is now trading near $99 for a gain of +4.2%. More importantly, the structural road map targeting $134 remains fully valid. The move so far represents the early phase of a multi-month recovery, not the completion of the idea.
Original Setup
• Entry: $95
• Stop: $88
• Target: $134
• Time-frame: 3 to 6 months
• Structure: Deep pullback into major demand with multiple confluences including Fibonacci support, high-volume accumulation, and technical exhaustion
• Thesis: Sentiment-driven decline into value created an asymmetric long opportunity
Current Price Action
Since entry, UPS has:
• Respected the $95 demand zone
• Formed higher lows on the daily chart
• Shown early accumulation
• Transitioned momentum from oversold to neutral and improving
The bounce into $99 confirms early strength and aligns with the expected path toward the $110-115 intermediate region.
Why $134 Still Stands
The $134 objective is anchored by:
• Prior structural resistance
• Fibonacci extension alignment
• A clean volume gap between $105 and $134
• Historical acceptance at higher prices
From current levels, the remaining upside is still substantial. This is where the bulk of the idea plays out.
Technical Structure
Daily:
• Higher lows forming
• Price reclaimed 20-day moving average
• Increasing volume on advances
• Momentum indicators recovering
Weekly:
• Major support at $95 held cleanly
• Downtrend break developing
• Structure suggests the corrective phase is ending
Key zones:
• Support: $95-97
• First resistance: $103-105
• Mid-target: $115-118
• Final target: $134
Position Management
For entries at $95:
• Hold the core position as the structure remains fully intact
• Consider scaling at $115-118, then $125-128, then final exits near $134
• Keep the stop at $88 until price clears $105, then break-even becomes optional
• Use weekly swing lows to guide any trailing approach
The goal is to let the multi-month structure play out rather than taking quick profits early.
Psychology Note
Many traders exit too soon because small gains feel rewarding. The entry at $95 required conviction. The hold toward $134 requires patience. Small early moves are confirmation, not completion.
Timeline Outlook
• Weeks 1-2: Early bounce (completed)
• Months 1-2: Move toward 110-115 zone
• Months 3-4: Consolidation and mid-target testing
• Months 4-6: Attempt toward $134
The current action fits this road-map perfectly.
Risk Factors
• A weekly close below $88 invalidates the long thesis
• Broad market weakness could slow progress
• Company-specific events or earnings surprises may affect trajectory
Key Takeaway
UPS is behaving exactly as the original thesis anticipated. +4.2% is early confirmation with far more potential remaining. As long as structure remains intact, the $134 target continues to be the primary objective.
