US DOLLAR ANALYSISOn the weekly chart, the US Dollar Index is clearly trading in a long-term bearish structure. Price has been moving under a strong descending trendline that has capped every major rally since the 2022 high, showing that sellers remain active at higher levels. After the sharp rejection near the 110 area earlier in 2025, the dollar dropped aggressively and broke below the important 100–101 support zone, which had previously acted as a strong demand area. Although price attempted to stabilize and briefly retested this zone, it failed to reclaim it, confirming that former support has now turned into resistance. The recent candles show weak upside momentum and consolidation below this key level, which signals continuation weakness rather than strength. As long as the index remains below the descending trendline and the 100–101 resistance zone on a weekly closing basis, the broader bias stays bearish, with downside pressure still dominant and no clear sign of a long-term reversal yet.
US
Can a Currency Rise While Science Dies?Argentina's peso stands at a historic crossroads in 2026, stabilized by unprecedented fiscal discipline yet undermined by the systematic dismantling of its scientific infrastructure. President Javier Milei's administration has achieved what seemed impossible: a fiscal surplus of 1.8% of GDP and inflation falling from 211% to manageable monthly rates around 2%. The peso's transformation from distressed asset to commodity-backed currency relies on the massive Vaca Muerta energy formation and lithium reserves, supported by a US-aligned trade framework that reduces political risk premiums. The launch of new inflation-linked currency bands in January 2026 signals normalization, while energy exports are projected to generate a cumulative total of $300 billion through 2050.
However, this financial renaissance masks a profound intellectual crisis. CONICET, Argentina's premier research council, suffered a 40% real budget cut, resulting in the loss of 1,000 staff members and triggering a brain drain that saw 10% of researchers abandon the system. Salaries collapsed 30% in real terms, forcing scientists into Uber driving and manual labor. Patent filings plummeted to a multi-decade low of 406 annually, while the country ranks a dismal 92nd globally in innovation inputs despite 64th in outputs. The administration views public science as fiscal waste, creating what critics call "scienticide," the systematic destruction of research capacity that took decades to build.
The peso's future hinges on whether geological wealth can compensate for cognitive atrophy. Energy and mining investments under the RIGI regime (offering 30-year fiscal stability) total billions, fundamentally altering the balance of payments. Yet import tariff eliminations on technology threaten 6,000 jobs in Tierra del Fuego's assembly sector, while the gutting of research labs compromises long-term capacity in biotechnology, nuclear energy, and software development. The geopolitical bet on US alignment provides bridge financing through IMF support, but tensions with China, a vital trade partner for soy and beef exports, create vulnerability. Argentina is transforming into a commodity superpower with a deliberately hollowed-out knowledge economy, raising the question: Can a nation prosper long-term by trading brainpower for barrels?
Starbucks at Support - Time to Brew a Bullish Move?📈SBUX has been moving inside a clean rising channel for years, respecting both the upper and lower bounds with precision.
⚔️Right now, Starbucks is retesting the lower bound of this long-term channel, a zone that has historically acted as a strong support (blue arrows).
As long as this area holds, we will be looking for trend-following longs, aiming for a continuation toward the mid and upper boundaries of the channel.📈
Nothing is confirmed yet, but this is exactly where buyers have stepped in many times before.
If the structure holds, the next bullish swing could already be brewing. ☕️
Do you think SBUX is ready for its next leg up? Share your thoughts below! 👇
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Is Intel’s Apple Deal the Ultimate Pivot?Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) stock soared over 116% this year. Reports suggest Apple may use Intel’s foundry by 2027. We analyze the drivers behind this potential resurrection.
Geopolitics & Geostrategy: The Stability Premium
In a volatile world, Intel offers a "stability premium." TSMC’s concentration in Taiwan risks Western supply chains. The US government now holds a ~10% stake in Intel. This actively incentivizes domestic production to secure the grid. Apple chooses Intel to hedge against geopolitical friction. This move aligns with US strategic interests, treating Intel as a sovereign asset.
Management & Leadership: The Tan Effect
CEO Lip-Bu Tan drives a massive cultural shift. He replaced Pat Gelsinger’s engineering vision with operational discipline. Tan prioritizes customer listening, an area where Intel historically struggled. This pivot is paying off. Securing Apple proves Intel is shedding its "arrogant" legacy. It is becoming a true service-oriented foundry.
Technology & Innovation: The 18A-P Advantage
The deal relies on Intel’s **18A-P process technology**. Apple aims to use this for entry-level M-series chips. This validates Intel's aggressive manufacturing roadmap. Additionally, the Trump administration invested $150 million in xLight. This startup develops next-gen lithography lasers to aid chipmaking. It reinforces the ecosystem surrounding Intel’s manufacturing capabilities.
Business Models: The Foundry Pivot
Intel is transforming from a product company to a hybrid foundry. Analysts estimate the Apple deal could generate ~$1 billion annually. However, the "Apple Seal of Approval" is worth far more. It signals to giants like Qualcomm that Intel is ready. It also creates leverage against TSMC’s pricing power.
Final Verdict: The Apple rumors convert Intel into a legitimate turnaround play. US geopolitical interests align with the new leadership. Validated technology suggests Intel’s worst days are likely over.
Is Boeing's Defense Bet America's New Arsenal?Boeing's recent stock appreciation stems from a fundamental strategic pivot toward defense contracts, driven by intensifying global security tensions. The company has secured major wins, including the F-47 Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter contract worth over $20 billion and a $4.7 billion deal to supply AH-64E Apache helicopters to Poland, Egypt, and Kuwait. These contracts position Boeing as central to U.S. military modernization efforts aimed at countering China's rapid expansion of stealth fighters like the J-20, which now rivals American fifth-generation aircraft production rates.
The F-47 program represents Boeing's redemption after losing the Joint Strike Fighter competition two decades ago. Through its Phantom Works division, Boeing developed and flight-tested full-scale prototypes in secret, validating designs through digital engineering methods that dramatically accelerated development timelines. The aircraft features advanced broadband stealth technology and will serve as a command node controlling autonomous drones in combat, fundamentally changing air warfare doctrine. Meanwhile, the modernized Apache helicopter has found renewed relevance in NATO's Eastern flank defense strategy and counter-drone operations, securing production lines through 2032.
However, risks remain in execution. The KC-46 tanker program continues facing technical challenges with its Remote Vision System, now delayed until 2027. The F-47's advanced variable-cycle engines are two years behind schedule due to supply chain constraints. Industrial espionage, including cases where secrets were sold to China, threatens technological advantages. Despite these challenges, Boeing's defense portfolio provides counter-cyclical revenue streams that hedge against commercial aviation volatility, creating long-term financial stability as global rearmament enters what analysts describe as a sustained "super-cycle" driven by great power competition.
HLU - Trio Retest: Where Structure Meets Opportunity!Homeland Uranium TSXV:HLU just secured a long-forgotten 35-million-pound uranium deposit in Colorado, originally discovered in 1979 and abandoned when the nuclear industry collapsed.
With uranium prices up 141% in four years , and global demand expected to jump another 28% by 2030 , Homeland is positioning itself inside a powerful multi-year commodity cycle few investors are watching.
Add AI-driven power demand, national security concerns, and new U.S. policies fast-tracking domestic uranium, and HLU becomes a high-conviction asymmetric energy play.
📊 Technical Analysis
After surging by over 160% , HLU has been in a healthy correction phase, trading within the falling channel marked in red.
However, from a long-term perspective, HLU remains overall bullish, trading within the rising broadening wedge pattern.
The orange circle represents a massive rejection point, the intersection of three confluences, what I call a TRIO RETEST :
- The lower bound of the rising wedge pattern
- The lower bound of the falling channel, acting as an oversold zone
- The structure marked in blue
As HLU approaches the orange zone, we will be looking for trend-following longs.
For the bulls to confirm long-term control and kickstart the next big impulse upward, a break above the falling red channel is needed.
💡 Bigger Picture
Here’s why the fundamentals add fuel to the technical setup:
- A $2.7B uranium prize reclaimed for pennies: Homeland acquired a 35-million-pound U.S. uranium deposit for just $0.15/lb, material now worth nearly $80/lb.
- Trump’s Day-One energy orders: New executive actions prioritize U.S. nuclear power and domestic uranium production. Homeland controls a rare U.S.-based asset right as the policy tide shifts.
- AI is outgrowing the grid: Microsoft, Google, and Oracle are moving toward nuclear due to soaring power needs. Homeland owns the fuel they’ll need.
- National security tailwind: The U.S. imports 98% of its uranium. Russia banned exports. China is hoarding supply. Homeland’s American deposit is uniquely strategic.
📘 Bottom line
HLU is sitting at a key technical zone while the macro, political, and energy narratives align in its favor. If the TRIO retest holds, the next bullish impulse could unfold from a position of both structural and fundamental strength.
📌 Always do your own research and consult your financial advisor before investing.
📚 Stick to your trading plan, entry, risk management, and execution.
All strategies are good, if managed properly.
~ Richard Nasr
US500 - Oversold at Triple Confluence… Bounce Incoming?US500 is approaching a major oversold zone, where three powerful elements intersect at the same point:
• The lower bound of the falling red channel
• The blue long-term trendline
• The orange structure zone acting as demand
⚔️This alignment creates a strong confluence area, a spot where buyers usually step in to absorb selling pressure and trigger corrective moves.
As long as the index holds above this zone, we can expect the possibility of a bullish correction toward the upper trendlines. But if this area fails, the structure would weaken and open the door for deeper downside.
Right now, all eyes are on this confluence… will the US500 bounce from the oversold zone, or break through it? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr.
SPX500 ShortHello traders,
I am expecting the SPX500 to see a potential 20% correction. Current sentiment appears mixed while valuations remain elevated, which increases downside risk. This view also aligns with the technical setup:
On the weekly timeframe, price is respecting a well-defined channel.
On the daily timeframe, a double-top pattern has just formed, suggesting possible trend exhaustion.
Not financial advice, just sharing my market perspective.
EURUSD - The Bears Are Waiting at the Gate!EURUSD remains overall bearish, trading within a falling red channel and respecting the sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
📈Currently, the pair is approaching a massive structure zone highlighted in blue, an area that has acted as both support and resistance multiple times in the past. This zone also aligns perfectly with the upper trendline of the channel, adding even more confluence.
As long as this resistance holds, I’ll be looking for potential short setups, expecting a rejection that could drive price back toward the lower boundary of the channel.
The bears are watching this level closely, will they step in again? 👀
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📊All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
AUDUSD Intraday Technical Analysis - 10 Nov 2025AUDUSD Intraday Technical Analysis - 10 Nov 2025
Australian Dollar/US Dollar at 0.65320 (3:40 PM UTC+4) — consolidation breakout imminent.
📌 Market Context: Wyckoff Phase D accumulation post-August correction; Dow Theory secondary uptrend forming; Gann Square-of-9 targets 0.6580/0.6480.
🗺️ Multi-Timeframe Pulse:
1D: Inverted head-and-shoulders pattern neckline at 0.6500; RSI 55 (neutral); Ichimoku cloud support 0.6420; bullish reversal signal forming.
4H: Rising channel 0.6480-0.6580; EMA21>EMA50 (golden cross); VWAP from Sept 20 = 0.6510 (support level).
1H: Cup-and-handle breakout attempt from 0.6480 base; BB midline 0.6520; VWAP slope neutral-bullish.
30M: Symmetrical triangle 0.6500-0.6560; hidden bull divergence on RSI; volume contracting.
15M: Bull flag over 0.6510; Tenkan>Kijun bullish alignment; stochastic RSI ready for extension.
5M: Falling wedge retest 0.6500; hammer candlestick signals intraday demand; false breakout risk above 0.6560.
🎯 PRIMARY LONG SETUP
Entry: 0.6510-0.6525 (triangle support + VWAP) — confirm on 15M bullish close >0.6535.
Stop Loss: 0.6485 (below triangle base).
Target 1: 0.6555 (+35 pips).
Target 2: 0.6580 (+60 pips — channel top).
Target 3: 0.6620 (+100 pips — harmonic extension).
Confirmation: RSI>55, volume +20%, VWAP support holding.
⚡ MOMENTUM ADD: Scale above 0.6580 ONLY if RSI>65 + volume surge; trail stop to 0.6560.
🔻 REVERSAL SHORT SETUP
Entry: 0.6600-0.6625 (supply zone) — trigger on bearish engulfing + RSI divergence.
Stop Loss: 0.6650 (above channel resistance).
Targets: 0.6560 → 0.6520 → 0.6480 (Gann support).
Confirmation: 5M/15M RSI bearish divergence; BB upper band rejection.
🚨 BREAKOUT PROTOCOL:
BULL: 1H close >0.6580 confirms H&S breakout; target 0.6700; move stop to BE+15.
BEAR: 1H close <0.6500 with volume expansion triggers retest of 0.6420 cloud support.
📊 INDICATOR SNAPSHOT: BB squeeze (30M) tightening; MACD histogram positive; VWAP slope neutral-up; EMA21 acting as trigger line on 1H.
⚠️ PATTERN ALERTS: Harmonic bat PRZ at 0.6600; H&S neckline breakout >0.6500 = trend confirmation; channel failure <0.6510 = Wyckoff spring risk.
📈 TIMING & RISK: RBA decision watch; Gann 90° cycle 20:00 UTC; expect 0.80% intraday range. Risk ≤1% per setup; avoid chasing; lock gains at TP1.
Educational analysis only. Trade with your plan, manage risk, adapt to live price action.
EURUSD TIMEFRAME-BY-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS# 💱 EURUSD (EUR/USD) COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🎯
## Week of November 10-14, 2025 | Intraday & Swing Trade Mastery
Close Price: 1.15640 | Entry Point: November 8, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4 📊
## 🔍 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - MULTI-TIMEFRAME PERSPECTIVE
EUR/USD is trading at a critical technical inflection point with strong multi-timeframe alignment signaling imminent directional breakout. Elliott Wave analysis reveals completion of corrective cycles, positioning for next impulse leg targeting 1.1650-1.1750 extension zone with substantial momentum. Bollinger Bands display classic compression squeeze pattern —volatility condensation preceding directional explosion. RSI across all timeframes maintains neutral-bullish bias (52-65 range)—optimal momentum positioning without extreme overbought conditions. Volume clustering at 1.1550-1.1630 represents significant institutional accumulation foundation. Wyckoff spring tests near 1.1500-1.1520 provide aggressive entry triggers. Harmonic pattern convergence at 1.1680-1.1750 resistance signals breakout confirmation with measured move targets extending to 1.1850+. ECB/Fed policy divergence supports directional clarity emerging this week.
## 📊 TIMEFRAME-BY-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
### 5-MINUTE (Scalping Precision) ⚡
Candlestick Formation: Japanese candles reveal micro-consolidation with breakout attempts at support zones. Evening Star rejection formations detected at 1.1680-1.1710 intraday resistance creating short opportunities.
Elliott Wave 5M: Sub-wave completion indicates Wave 4 micro-consolidation finalizing. Wave 5 breakout anticipated above 1.1650-1.1680 with targets 1.1720-1.1780 (measured move).
Bollinger Bands: Upper compression mode—middle band at 1.1630 acts as pivot point. Lower band rejection (1.1550-1.1580) creates scalp-long setups with excellent risk/reward ratios.
RSI (14) Analysis: RSI oscillating 48-62 range—neutral territory with minor divergences forming. Bullish divergence at 1.1550 support signals buyer engagement; caution on 68+ resistance approach.
Micro Support/Resistance: 1.1550 (micro-support) | 1.1600 (POC cluster) | 1.1640 (pivot) | 1.1690 (intraday resistance) | 1.1740 (scalp target)
Volume Signature: Volume concentrated 1.1600-1.1660 zone—institutional marker established. Breakout volume >50% above average required above 1.1690 for sustained move above 1.1750.
VWAP Alignment: Price oscillating around session VWAP at 1.1625—each touch generates scalp opportunity. Upper VWAP band at 1.1710; lower support at 1.1550.
### 15-MINUTE (Quick Swing Gateway) 🎢
Candlestick Patterns: Engulfing bars forming at support zones—bullish engulfing at 1.1570 zone confirms reversal attempts. Three-candle patterns (flag continuation) with 50-80 pips breakout potential.
Harmonic Pattern Recognition: Gartley Pattern potential completion near 1.1560-1.1620 PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). Exceptional risk-reward at 1:3.5 for harmonic traders. Butterfly variant also forming.
Wyckoff Accumulation Phase: Classic accumulation evident—small barometer move (SBM) nearing completion. Spring test anticipated 1.1480-1.1510 zone; markup phase targets 1.1750-1.1850.
Bollinger Bands (15M): Band squeeze intensifying—historical volatility expansion suggests 70-120 pips moves follow. Upper band resistance at 1.1740; lower band support at 1.1520.
Volume Profile (15M): Point of Control (POC) at 1.1630—prime concentration zone. Volume surge >55% required confirming breakout above 1.1710. Imbalances favor upside significantly.
Ichimoku Cloud (15M): Price consolidating below cloud edge—Tenkan-sen at 1.1700 = resistance pivot. Kijun-sen (1.1660) = critical secondary support. Cloud support 1.1540-1.1610.
EMA Structure: EMA 9 (1.1650) above EMA 21 (1.1610)—bullish alignment confirmed. Price above both = intraday strength maintained.
### 30-MINUTE (Intraday Swing Axis) 🔄
Pattern Formation: Symmetrical Triangle pattern consolidating with apex near 1.1700. Ascending triangle variant shows bullish bias—breakout above 1.1680 targets 1.1780-1.1850 extension.
Dow Theory Application: Confirming higher highs/higher lows structure. Secondary trend bullish; pullbacks to EMA 20 (1.1640) = optimal swing entry zones identified.
RSI Divergence Setup: Positive RSI divergence confirmed—price making lower lows (1.1540) while RSI forms higher lows (42 level). Classic reversal setup targeting 1.1720 minimum.
Exponential Moving Average: EMA 9 (1.1665) = core support pivot. EMA 21 (1.1610) = secondary support. EMA 50 (1.1500) = structural hold level. Bullish ribbon alignment intact.
Support Architecture: 1.1500 (EMA 50/structural) | 1.1560 (demand zone) | 1.1610 (volume cluster) | 1.1650 (EMA 9 dynamic)
Resistance Architecture: 1.1680 (triangle formation) | 1.1750 (measured move target) | 1.1800 (weekly resistance) | 1.1850 (extension)
Volume Analysis (30M): Increasing volume on recent bars—accumulation signature strong. Buy volume exceeding sell volume confirms institutional interest significantly.
### 1-HOUR (Core Swing Trade Engine) 🎯
Elliott Wave Structure: Major wave analysis suggests Wave 3 completion near 1.1750. Current Wave 4 correction targets 1.1650-1.1700 support zone. Wave 5 impulse anticipated—target: 1.1850-1.1950.
Pennant Formation: Classic Bullish Pennant pattern forming—breakout confirmation above 1.1710 validates pattern. Pole height measured move = 1.1850+ realistic target.
Bollinger Bands (1H): Upper band at 1.1800 = squeeze breakout target. Middle band (1.1700) = bullish support zone. Lower band rejection (1.1500) creates swing longs with excellent R/R.
VWAP Daily: EUR/USD trading above daily VWAP at 1.1600—bullish gradient confirmed. Each hourly candle close above VWAP strengthens continuation probability.
Volume Profile Hotspot: Heavily traded at 1.1600-1.1660 (accumulation zone) and 1.1710-1.1780 (resistance cluster). Imbalances above 1.1800 suggest vacuum-fill potential.
Ichimoku Cloud Alignment: Price above Senkou Span A (1.1700) & Span B (1.1660)—cloud thickness indicates strong support. Chikou Span above candles = bullish confirmation. Cloud color: BULLISH GREEN.
Gann Theory Application: 45-degree angle from swing low (1.1450) establishes rally trajectory. Resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci extension (1.1750) precedes aggressive breakout phase.
Support Tiers 1H: 1.1500 (structural hold) | 1.1570 (EMA support) | 1.1620 (Kijun-sen) | 1.1660 (accumulation zone)
Resistance Tiers 1H: 1.1710 (breakout trigger) | 1.1760 (extension) | 1.1800 (major level) | 1.1850 (impulse target)
### 4-HOUR (Swing Trade Thesis Foundation) 💼
Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern: Potential IH&S formation completing—left shoulder (1.1450), head (1.1400), right shoulder completing (1.1500-1.1560). Neckline breakout at 1.1710 targets 1.1900-1.2000 extension.
Wyckoff Accumulation Deep Dive: Institutional buying signature evident—SBM (small barometer move) completion imminent. Spring test to 1.1480-1.1510 anticipated; subsequent markup phase targets 1.1850-1.2000.
RSI 4H Analysis: RSI at 56-68 range—bullish bias maintained. Room for upside extension without extreme overbought. RSI above 74 targets 1.1900+; below 34 = defensive posture required.
Cup & Handle Formation: Potential bullish Cup pattern visible on 4H—handle stabilization near 1.1650-1.1700. Breakout above handle (1.1760) targets cup depth extension = 1.1850-1.1950.
EMA Ribbon Structure: EMA 8 (1.1680), EMA 13 (1.1660), EMA 21 (1.1610), EMA 50 (1.1500), EMA 200 (1.1350)—BULLISH ALIGNMENT PERFECT. Compression/expansion cycles identify momentum phases.
Support Tiers 4H: 1.1450 (structural support) | 1.1500 (accumulation) | 1.1600 (pivot) | 1.1660 (demand cluster)
Resistance Tiers 4H: 1.1710 (key breakout) | 1.1760 (extension) | 1.1800 (major target) | 1.1900 (weekly projection)
Volume Signature 4H: Accumulation volume bars > distribution bars—bullish bias maintained. Volume nodes clustering at 1.1600-1.1660 indicate strong institutional support zone.
### DAILY CHART (Macro Swing Thesis) 📅
Elliott Wave Macro: We're potentially in Wave 3 of larger cycle—aggressive expansion still possible. Wave structure supports break of 1.1800 targeting 1.1950-1.2100 daily close objectives.
Double Bottom Recognition: Historical Double Bottom pattern near 1.1350-1.1450 support—confirmed breakthrough above 1.1710 neckline triggered. Second target near 1.1900-1.2000.
Bollinger Bands Daily: Upper band at 1.1900 = realistic daily target zone. Mean (1.1750) = healthy pullback support. Band slope indicates volatility expansion—expect 100-200 pips daily ranges.
Volume Profile Daily: Strong buying volume bar at 1.1500-1.1650 zone—institutional accumulation marker established. Selling volume decreasing—demand controls trend absolutely.
Ichimoku Cloud Daily: Cloud thickness growing—bullish trend strengthening substantially. Cloud support around 1.1650-1.1750 zone. Kumo breakout anticipated—targets cloud top at 1.1800-1.1900.
Harmonic Analysis Deep: Butterfly Pattern potential completion—PRZ at 1.1710-1.1780 suggests reversal zone OR breakout confirmation. Confluence amplifies probability of extension.
Gann Angles & Fibonacci: 50% retracement (1.1550) + 61.8% extension (1.1850) = key reversal zones. Gann fan angles suggest 1.1800-1.1900 as structural resistance before continuation.
Key Daily Support: 1.1400 (psychological/structural) | 1.1500 (accumulation zone) | 1.1600 (demand level) | 1.1700 (midpoint)
Key Daily Resistance: 1.1710 (breakout trigger) | 1.1780 (extension) | 1.1850 (measured move) | 1.1950 (weekly target)
Trend Confirmation: Higher highs & higher lows maintained—uptrend intact. Daily close above 1.1800 = strong continuation signal targeting 1.2000+ next level.
## 🎪 TRADING SETUP PLAYBOOK - NOV 10-14
### BULLISH SCENARIO (Probability: 80%) ✅
Trigger: 4H candle close above 1.1760 + volume surge (>50% above average) + RSI above 64
Entry Zone: 1.1700-1.1750 (with breakout confirmation signal)
Target 1: 1.1780 (TP1) | Target 2: 1.1820 (TP2) | Target 3: 1.1900 (TP3) | Target 4: 1.1950 (TP4)
Stop Loss: 1.1620 (below EMA/structural support)
Risk/Reward: 1:3.2 (excellent asymmetric setup)
Trade Duration: 18-72 hours (prime swing window)
### BEARISH SCENARIO (Probability: 20%) ⚠️
Trigger: Daily close below 1.1650 + volume increase + RSI divergence failure
Entry Zone: 1.1760-1.1850 (short setup)
Target 1: 1.1710 (TP1) | Target 2: 1.1650 (TP2) | Target 3: 1.1600 (TP3)
Stop Loss: 1.1900 (above resistance)
Risk/Reward: 1:1.6 (acceptable but lower probability)
Trade Duration: Watch for trend reversal confirmation first
## ⚠️ VOLATILITY & OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD CONDITIONS
Current Volatility Status: Moderate compression → Expect significant expansion imminent
5M/15M RSI: 48-62 range (neutral)—room for 25-50 pips movements | Scalp target zones
30M/1H RSI: 52-66 range (bullish bias, optimal zone)—sweet spot for swing entries
4H RSI: 56-70 range—approaching caution zone but room to extend | Safe for core swings
Daily RSI: 60-74 range (approaching extremes)—be defensive if daily RSI>76 | Take profits aggressively
Overbought Recognition Points:
RSI daily >75 combined with upper Bollinger Band rejection = immediate profit-taking
Ichimoku cloud top penetration fails (bearish candle rejection) = trend exhaustion signal
Volume declining on breakout attempt = false breakout warning signal
Harmonic pattern PRZ exact hit without follow-through = reversal likely imminent
Oversold Bounce Setups:
RSI 1H <32 on support touch = high-probability bounce back to 1.1750-1.1800
Price below EMA 50 (1.1500) + RSI <30 = aggressive accumulation zone
Spring test below 1.1490 with volume surge = Wyckoff spring reversal trigger
Harmonic pattern PRZ support bounce = measured move extension targets activated
## 🎯 ENTRY & EXIT OPTIMIZATION STRATEGY
### OPTIMAL ENTRY TIMING
For Scalpers (5M): RSI bounce from 44-50 zone after Band lower touch = 15-25 pips scalp (1-3 min holds)
For Quick Swings (15M-30M): 15M candle close above 1.1690 with 4H alignment = 60-100 pips swing (30 min-2 hour holds)
For Core Swings (1H-4H): 4H pennant breakout above 1.1760 on volume = 150-250+ pips target (hold 12-48 hours)
For Position Swings (Daily): Daily close above 1.1800 = continuation play targeting 1.1950-2.0000 (hold 5-7 days)
Best Entry Windows: Asian session overlap (22:00-8:00 UTC), London open (8:00 UTC), NY close (21:00 UTC)
### EXIT STRATEGIES & PROFIT TAKING
Take Profit Levels: TP1: Fibonacci 38.2% (1.1760) | TP2: Harmonic PRZ (1.1820) | TP3: Daily Band upper (1.1900) | TP4: Weekly target (1.1950)
Stop Loss Placement: Always below most recent swing low + 20 pips (strict risk management priority)
Trailing Stops: Activate at TP2—trail with 30-40 pips buffer for 4H+ trades (lock in profits)
Breakeven Exit: Move stops to entry after 1:1 risk/reward achieved—eliminate emotional trading
Partial Profit Strategy: Close 25% at TP1 | 25% at TP2 | 25% at TP3 | Let 25% run to TP4 (maximize winners)
## 🔔 REVERSAL & BREAKOUT RECOGNITION CHECKLIST
### REVERSAL SIGNALS TO MONITOR:
RSI positive divergence (lower price lows, higher RSI lows) = bullish reversal setup high probability
Candlestick engulfing patterns at support/resistance zones = trend reversal confirmation strong signal
Volume profile breakdowns (declining volume on breakout attempts) = false move warning immediate
Ichimoku Cloud rejection (price fails to penetrate cloud layer) = structural resistance confirmed
Harmonic pattern completion at exact PRZ = reversal zone probability increases significantly
Elliott Wave 5th wave failure (truncation) = impulse completion = reversal imminent trigger
Gann angle break through significant angle = trend line break = reversal trigger activated
### BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION RULES:
Close beyond resistance with >50% volume surge above average = confirmed breakout signal strong
RSI crosses above 60 for bullish breakout, below 45 for bearish breakout confirmation
VWAP alignment with directional move = institutional participation confirmation strong
Bollinger Band breakout with band expansion (squeeze release) = volatility expansion confirmed immediate
Multiple timeframe confluence (5M + 15M + 1H + 4H aligned) = highest probability setup attainable
Ichimoku Cloud break (price clears all clouds with bullish candles) = strong continuation signal
Volume imbalance (ask volume > bid volume) = directional sustain likelihood increases significantly
## 💡 WEEK FORECAST SUMMARY - NOV 10-14
Monday (10th): 🌍 Consolidation continuation near 1.1650-1.1700 zone. Range-bound trading anticipated. Early breakout direction watch crucial. Entry setups favor reversal plays at support zones.
Tuesday-Wednesday (11-12th): 📈 Prime breakout window opens —1.1760 represents key decision point. Expect 100-200 pips daily volatility. Breakout confirmation targets 1.1820-1.1900 extension. This is the optimal swing trade window all week. ECB speakers watch critical.
Thursday (13th): ⚠️ Potential profit-taking pullback after breakout (if triggered). Support retest of 1.1780-1.1720. Buying opportunity if pullback holds above 1.1700.
Friday (14th): 📊 Weekly close pattern formation critical. Extension run anticipated if above 1.1800. If above 1.1850 = week target 1.1950-2.0000 achieved. End-of-week positioning for next week.
## 📍 CRITICAL CONFLUENCE ZONES - KEY TARGETS
1.1450-1.1500: Major support zone (accumulation marker, Wyckoff spring area, structural hold)
1.1550-1.1650: Secondary support (EMA 9, demand cluster, psychological level, volume POC)
1.1680-1.1710: Micro-resistance cluster (consolidation squeeze zone, early breakout resistance)
1.1750-1.1800: KEY BREAKOUT ZONE (triangle apex, harmonic confluence, all timeframe resistance)
1.1800-1.1900: Primary upside target (Elliott Wave 5, daily Band upper, measured move extension)
1.1900-1.1950: Secondary extension target (Gann level, macro resistance, wave projection)
1.1950-2.0000: Weekly/monthly target (if wave 5 impulse extends beyond base projections)
## 🏆 RISK MANAGEMENT RULEBOOK
✅ 1) Position Sizing: Never risk >2% of account equity per single trade
✅ 2) Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2.5 R/R on every entry—1:3+ preferred for swing trades
✅ 3) Profit Scaling: Close 25-50% at 1:1 ratio, let remainder run to 1:2+ targets
✅ 4) Stop Loss Discipline: Place stop IMMEDIATELY on entry—no exceptions (20 pips tight)
✅ 5) Breakout Confirmation: Avoid FOMO—wait for candle close confirmation + volume surge always
✅ 6) Daily Support Respect: Psychological holds (round numbers 1.1600 | 1.1800) matter—trade confluence not against
✅ 7) Time Management: Exit losing trades quickly (max 1:0.5 acceptable for educational losses)
✅ 8) Macro Alignment: Always check daily/4H bias before taking 1H or lower trades
## #EURUSD #EUROUSD #FOREXTRADING #EURUSDANALYSIS
#TECHNICALANALYSIS #ELLIOTTWAVE #HARMONICPATTERN #BREAKOUTTRADING
#SWINGTRADER #DAYTRADING #INTRADAY #FOREXANALYSIS #TRADINGVIEW
#BOLLINGER BANDS #RSI #ICHIMOKU #VWAP #TRADINGSTRATEGY
#WYCKOFFMETHOD #GANNTHEORY #DOWTHEORY #TECHNICALS #ANALYSIS
#SUPPORTANDRESISTANCE #VOLUMEANALYSIS #OVERBOUGHT #OVERSOLD #REVERSAL
#FOREXTRADERS #CURRENCYTRADING #BREAKOUTSETUP #TRADERSOFTWITTER
#TECHNICALTRADER #CANDLESTICK #PATTERRECOGNITION #CHARTANALYSIS #DAYTRADER
## 🎁 BONUS: DAILY PRE-MARKET CHECKLIST
Use this every morning before market open:
☑️ Check daily RSI (should be 60-72 for bullish bias continuation)
☑️ Identify support/resistance zones (1.1600 | 1.1700 | 1.1760 | 1.1900)
☑️ Verify 4H chart alignment (pennant/IH&S pattern status update)
☑️ Check Ichimoku cloud position (above/below = trend confirmation signal)
☑️ Review 1H Elliott Wave count (which wave are we trading exactly?)
☑️ Scan volume profile (POC = likely rejection zone area)
☑️ Set entry orders + stop losses BEFORE Asian session closes
☑️ Plan 3 Take Profit levels before entering any position
☑️ Monitor ECB/Fed speakers + economic calendar (interest rate expectations)
## 🌐 FOREX SESSION NOTES
EUR/USD trades 24/5 across all sessions . Highest volatility typically occurs:
Asian Session (22:00-8:00 UTC): Lower volatility—good for breakout setups forming
London Session (8:00-16:30 UTC): Prime trading hours —peak liquidity + volatility combination
NY Session (14:30-21:00 UTC): Secondary volatility surge—often confirms London direction
ECB/Fed Policy Impact: Monitor policy divergence—higher Fed rates support USD weakness = EUR strength
💡 Disclaimer: This technical analysis is educational only. Always conduct your own due diligence and implement appropriate risk management. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly within your risk tolerance. Use stop losses on every position. Not financial advice.
Analysis Created: November 8, 2025 | Valid Through: November 14, 2025 | Updated Daily
Gold facing pressure ahead of US - China meetingChina's purchase of its first US soybean cargo this year, ahead of a meeting with the US, signals expectations for a constructive dialogue and a positive outcome on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
Optimism over a potential trade breakthrough may continue to pressure gold prices.
However, the ongoing data blackout leaves the Fed cautious, heightening volatility in the near term.
XAUUSD failed to breach the EMA, but the higher swing low signaled diminishing bearish momentum. If XAUUSD holds above 3900, the price may retest the resistance at 4020.
Conversely, if XAUUSD closes above 4020, the price may retest the next resistance at 4150 and reverse the trend.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness.
Gold facing pressure but still open for further surgeFollowing a recent rally, the gold price met significant profit-taking pressure. Prices reached a record high of 4381, signaling an easing of US-China trade tensions.
China confirmed trade talks with the US will occur tomorrow in Malaysia alongside the ASEAN summit. However, both sides are escalating tensions pre-talks to gain bargaining power, potentially complicating a final agreement.
Meanwhile, the prolonged US government shutdown, combined with a weakened Labor Market and a lack of data, has obscured the Labor Market's current situation. This uncertainty fueled market concern and drove investors toward safe-haven assets.
Concurrently, expectations place the US CPI at 3.1% YoY, accelerating from 2.9%. This increase raises stagflation concerns in the US economy, further supporting the gold price.
Technically, XAUUSD hovers slightly above the EMA78. Both EMAs are consolidating, signaling continued flattening momentum.
However, the long-term trend remains to the upside, suggesting investors may buy the dips amid the remaining uncertainty.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.71
1st Support: 96.64
1st Resistance: 99.98
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Can One Company Break China's Rare Earth Stranglehold?Lynas Rare Earths Limited (OTCPK: LYSCF / ASX: LYC) has emerged as the Western world's strategic counterweight to Chinese dominance in rare earth minerals, positioning itself as critical infrastructure rather than merely a mining company. As the only significant producer of separated rare earths outside Chinese control, Lynas supplies materials essential for advanced defense systems, electric vehicles, and clean energy technologies. The company's transformation reflects an urgent geopolitical imperative: Western nations can no longer tolerate dependence on China, which controls nearly 90% of global rare earth refining capacity and previously held 99% of heavy rare earth processing. This monopoly has enabled Beijing to weaponize critical minerals as diplomatic leverage, prompting the U.S., Japan, and Australia to intervene with unprecedented financial backing and strategic partnerships.
The confluence of government support validates Lynas's indispensable role in allied supply chain security. The U.S. Department of Defense awarded a $120 million contract for domestic heavy rare earth separation capability in Texas, while Japan's government provided A$200 million in financing to secure priority NdPr supply through 2038. Australia committed A$1.2 billion to a Critical Minerals Reserve, and U.S. officials are exploring equity stakes in strategic projects. This state-backed capital fundamentally alters Lynas's risk profile, stabilizing revenue through defense contracts and sovereign agreements that transcend traditional commodity market volatility. The company's recent A$750 million equity placement demonstrates investor confidence that geopolitical alignment overrides cyclical price concerns.
Lynas's technical achievements cement its strategic moat. The company successfully achieved the first production of separated heavy rare earth oxides—dysprosium and terbium—outside China, eliminating the West's most critical military supply vulnerability. Its proprietary HREE separation circuit can produce up to 1,500 tonnes annually, while the high-grade Mt Weld deposit provides exceptional cost advantages. The October 2025 partnership with U.S.-based Noveon Magnetics creates a complete mine-to-magnet supply chain using verified non-Chinese materials, addressing downstream bottlenecks where China also dominates magnet manufacturing. Geographic diversification across Australia, Malaysia, and Texas provides operational redundancy, though permitting challenges at the Seadrift facility reveal the friction inherent in forcing rapid industrial development onto allied soil.
The company's strategic significance is perhaps most starkly demonstrated by its targeting in the DRAGONBRIDGE influence operation, a Chinese state-aligned disinformation campaign using thousands of fake social media accounts to spread negative narratives about Lynas facilities. The U.S. Department of Defense publicly acknowledged this threat, confirming Lynas's status as a national defense proxy. This adversarial attention, combined with robust intellectual property protections and government commitments to defend operational stability, suggests that Lynas's valuation must account for factors beyond traditional mining metrics—it represents the West's collective bet on achieving mineral independence from an increasingly assertive China.
Berkshire: Pulling BackBerkshire shares have recently surrendered some of their hard-earned gains. Despite this pullback, we continue to place the stock within magenta wave (X), which still offers some upside potential. A more pronounced downward move is likely only once the stock transitions into magenta wave (Y). At that point, we expect a retracement into our green Target Zone ($444.68–$415.61). Alternatively, it’s possible that the correction of wave alt. has already concluded. In this scenario, price would break above resistance at $571.83 directly, without first retesting the green zone—a development we assign a 35% probability.
Silvers reached a fresh record high due to the short squeezeSilver prices reached an all-time high of over 53 USD/ounce, driven by a significant short squeeze in London. This rally was further fueled by safe-haven demand following the resumption of US-China trade tensions.
US President Trump expressed openness to negotiations after announcing an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, but China has not responded. Meanwhile, China's Sep exports surprisingly increased by 8.3% YoY, the fastest pace in six months, driven by demand from countries other than the US. Exports to the US fell 27% YoY due to tariff pressures. This indicates that the additional threat from Trump may not significantly impact China, especially given its crucial role in the AI value chain and its dominance in rare earth production. These elevated tensions could continue to drive markets toward safe-haven assets amid global instability.
On the supply side, the London Bullion Market Association, as reported by Bloomberg, confirmed that it is “aware of tightness in the silver market and is actively monitoring the situation.” Mine production has remained below demand since 2021, primarily due to electrical and electricity demand, especially from photovoltaics, where China is a dominant force. The ongoing supply shortage could continue to support silver prices.
Technically, XAGUSD is showing strong bullish momentum after breaking its previous record high, with both EMAs diverging and extending.
XAGUSD could continue to rise and test the 227.2% Fibonacci extension at 60.
Conversely, price could face take profit pressure after a long rally with the RSI indicates the overbought level (over 88). If the bullish momentum weakens, XAGUSD could test the resistance level at 47.88.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
$XRP – Let’s Do It Again!!XRP is once again retesting its daily support zone around $2.60–$2.80, the same level that triggered multiple bullish impulses in recent months.
As long as this red support zone holds, I’ll keep looking for long setups targeting the $3.10–$3.20 supply area.
A daily close below $2.60 would invalidate the setup and shift focus toward the $2.30 support before any potential rebound.
It’s the same play, same level, and the same structure. Let’s see if XRP delivers again! 💪
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
GBPUSD BTMM Analysis – Bearish OutlookFollowing the BTMM framework, GBPUSD appears to be continuing it's bearish movement. With TMEOW, the pair finishes the week above this week's opening.
Day 1: We saw the initial push up creating the high.
Day 2: Price formed the M-pattern and rejected from the upper levels.
Day 3: Falls on the FMWB which could expect the pair to continue bearish after briefly consolidating.
The intraday trendline has already been tested, and momentum indicators are signalling exhaustion at these highs. Unless price reclaims the previous peak, bias remains bearish, with expectation of further downside continuation towards lower liquidity pools.
Bias: Bearish
Target zones: 1.3400 – 1.3360
$BTC – Flip Zones Driving 4H StructureCRYPTOCAP:BTC flipped bullish after reclaiming the blue demand, then turned bearish at the red supply. We’re now pulling back from resistance, and the next clean setup likely forms on a retest of the blue zone.
🔑 Key zones
Support (blue) ~$111k area — former base of the last impulse.
Resistance (red) ~$114.5k–$115k — where sellers capped the rally.
🔎 Confluence
Prior bearish rejection at red + bullish reaction at blue.
Clear HH/HL structure only resumes if price holds blue and pushes back above red.
📊 Scenarios
Bullish 📈 Pull back into $111k (blue), print higher-low / bullish candle, then continuation toward $115k → $117k.
Bearish 📉 Lose the blue zone with a strong 4H close → open room for a deeper dip before buyers try again.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr.
BTC – Momentum Returns!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈BTC has been overall bullish trading within the rising broadening wedge marked in red.
This week, BTC has been retesting the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, the orange zone is a strong structure and previous ATH.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the lower red trendline and orange structure.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for trend-following bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
AUD/USD - Forecast (To fall further)🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUD/USD – 8H Breakdown
AUD/USD just wrapped up that juicy Wave 3 run and topped near 0.6780. Now we’re cooling off with a corrective pullback — perfect spot to hunt buys 👀
🎯 Buy Zones
Buy Zone 1: 0.6520 – 0.6530 → first bounce area ⚡
Buy Zone 2 (Preferred): 0.6460 – 0.6480 → 71% retrace + wedge support 🏹
📈 Playbook
Let price dip into demand (ideally Buy Zone 2).
Load up → ride it back toward 0.6700.
If bulls flex, we sweep those 0.6780 highs for liquidity. 🚀
🔍 Outlook
Short-term: Expect deeper retrace into demand.
Mid-term: Bulls looking for another leg higher.
Bias : Pullback → Buy continuation 🔥






















