#045: USD/JPY Long Investment Opportunity
The USD/JPY is in a structured uptrend on the higher timeframe, with the price recently completing a liquidity clearing at the lows before showing signs of a reaction.
After a period of orderly bearish pressure, the market absorbed supply in dynamic support areas, without producing any significant structural breakout. This behavior is typical of stop-hunting maneuvers in a bullish environment, where the decline does not represent distribution but rather a replenishment of institutional long positions.
The subsequent rebound highlights:
Maintained structure of higher highs and higher lows over the medium term
Absence of abnormal downward accelerations
Price return above equilibrium and value areas
From a price action perspective, the recent decline shows characteristics of a corrective pullback, not a reversal. Volumes are consistently accompanying the movement, suggesting an accumulation phase rather than a market exit.
The environment remains favorable for a continuation of the main movement, with the price tending to re-engage with the dominant direction after eliminating the weakest positions. The current setup therefore favors trend-aligned trades, executed after, not during, manipulation.
In summary, the market is exhibiting a classic scenario:
primary bullish trend
controlled technical retracement
reabsorption of liquidity below the lows
resumption of main directional pressure
As long as the underlying structure remains intact, the trading bias remains oriented toward the continuation of the movement, with expectations of extension toward higher liquidity areas.
USD
Potential bearish reversal?USD/CHF is rising towards the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 505 Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.7996
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level, which is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8027
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.7953
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bulliah reversal off multi swing low support?USD/CAD has bounced off the support level, which is a multi-swing low support, and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3724
Why we like it:
There is a multi-swing low support level.
Stop loss: 1.3678
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.3878
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop off?GBP/USD is rising towards the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance level, and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3398
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance
Stop loss: 1.3456
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
Take profit: 1.3341
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1755
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.1803
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance level.
Take profit: 1,1676
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop?ETH/USD may face short-term resistance and could pull back toward the first support level.
Pivot: 3,163.01
1st Support: 2,757.37
1st Resistance: 3,397.46
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
EURUSD Approaching the yearly Resistance.The EURUSD pair is currently on the 3rd Leg of a very aggressive rally that started on he 1.14700 Low (Support), with the most recent Higher Low being last week on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
This chart shows a potential Double Sell Signal as the price is approaching the Resistance Zone that started after the July 01 2025 High, while the 1D RSI is approaching its own Resistance level since March 11 2025.
As a result, once the price enters the Resistance Zone or if the RSI hits its own sooner, we will have the most optimal quarterly sell opportunity. If that takes place in the middle of the Resistance Zone, the resulting drop will test the exact 1.14700 Support. As a result, that is our Target on a medium-term basis or if the RSI hits its own Support (32.50) first.
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What's ahead for the NEW YEAR 26'?TVC:DXY
Becoming Profitable in the Auction, is a choice only chosen by the 'PROFITABLE'...
As of today the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen significantly around -9.5% to -10% year-to-date, marking its worst performance in decades due to expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a strengthening global economy. Now the question is, What's ahead for the DOLLAR? Will it continue to weaken for the year of 2026 or gain back strength? What are your thoughts, lmk in the comments...
Continued Success,
TreyHighPwr
NAS100 Preparing for Wave 3 Rally After Healthy PullbackThe NAS100 chart shows that a larger corrective move has likely finished at the (Y) / C low, after which price started a new upward impulsive structure. The recent decline looks like a normal Wave 2 pullback, which has already reacted from the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci support zone, a common area for corrections to end. This suggests buyers are stepping back in and the market is preparing for Wave 3, which is usually the strongest upward move. As long as price stays above the invalidation level near 23,836, the bullish Elliott Wave setup remains valid. Overall, the structure favors further upside toward new highs once Wave 3 gains momentum.
Stay tuned!
@Money_Dictators
Thank you :)
USDJPY - Correction or Reload Before the Next Push?📈USDJPY remains structurally bullish on the higher time frame . The market respected the rising blue trendline, broke above the previous support zone, and shifted that zone into new demand.
🏹After the impulsive move higher , price is now going through a controlled correction, drifting back toward a key area of confluence:
the rising trendline + former support zone.
❗️This is exactly where trend traders pay attention . As long as price holds above this intersection, the plan is simple: look for trend-following long setups, aiming for continuation in the direction of the dominant trend.
A clean bullish reaction here keeps the structure intact. Only a decisive break below would put this bullish scenario into question.
Is this just a pause… or the fuel for the next leg higher? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
DXY — Daily Structure at a Decision PointThe dollar has completed a prior volume imbalance fill at 97.853 and is now trading against the lower boundary of the daily range.
Participation is low, consistent with late-December conditions. In this environment, daily closes matter more than intraday movement.
Key level: 98.030
This is the prior daily range low.
A daily close below 98.030 shifts the daily bias bearish
Without that close, downside pressure remains internal to the range
The move into imbalance without expansion suggests position resolution, not trend initiation. This is typical of year-end exposure reduction, rather than new macro positioning.
Cross-market context:
Gold is pressing into a double-high area without expansion.
Bonds are showing loss of momentum at the front end.
Risk assets remain supported but lack acceleration.
If structure breaks, the next natural downside references sit at 97.469 and 97.179.
Until a close confirms, this remains a confirmation environment, not a forecasting one.
AUDUSD Breakout Retest as Dollar Weakens!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are monitoring AUDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.66000 zone. The pair previously traded within a downtrend but has successfully broken out, signaling a shift in market structure.
Price is now in a healthy corrective phase, retracing toward the 0.66000 support zone, which aligns with prior resistance turned support — a classic breakout–retest setup.
Fundamental backdrop:
The US Dollar remains under pressure following softer macro conditions and fading expectations of sustained Fed hawkishness. Recent data continues to point toward a cooling US labor market, reinforcing a weaker USD environment and improving the risk-reward profile for AUDUSD on pullbacks.
Focus: Watching price behavior around 0.66000 for confirmation of bullish continuation.
Trade safe,
Joe
USDCAD at Critical Trend ResistanceHey Traders,
In tomorrow’s trading session, we are monitoring USDCAD for a potential selling opportunity around the 1.38000 zone.
Technical structure:
USDCAD remains in a clear downtrend and is currently in a corrective phase, with price retracing toward the 1.38000 area — a key zone of trend resistance and prior supply. This level represents a technically significant area where sellers may look to reassert control in line with the broader bearish structure.
What to watch:
Price behavior around 1.38000 will be critical. A clear rejection or loss of bullish momentum here could signal trend continuation to the downside.
Trade safe,
Joe
AUDUSD at Decision Point — Trend or Trap?Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are monitoring AUDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.66200 zone.
Structure:
AUDUSD remains in a well-defined uptrend, and price is currently undergoing a healthy pullback toward the rising trend structure. The 0.66200 area stands out as a key zone of confluence, acting as both dynamic trend support and a prior reaction level.
Context:
As long as price holds above this level, the broader bullish structure remains intact, keeping the path open for a continuation toward recent highs.
Plan:
Watching for bullish reaction and confirmation around 0.66200 before considering continuation setups.
Trade safe,
Joe
USDJPY → Trade Analysis | SELL SetupYou can expect a reaction in the direction of selling from the specified resistance zone
USDJPY moving higher as it tests the strong resistance level..
We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
EURUSD: A long Trade is possible here!Hello Traders,
The Trend is bullish however not so strong!
We had previously broken a level up!
The POC of Volume Profile is around strong levels!
There is a FVG and OB+ around the POC.
We see some weaknesses in candles recently. Though, they are not yet critical weakness of buyers!
So, we are ready to long it!
The TP I've gained through equal levels and historical strong bears around!
You can use this analysis for your intraday orders too!
EURUSD – 1-Hour Timeframe Tradertilki AnalysisMy friends, good morning,
I have prepared an EURUSD analysis for you on the 1-hour timeframe.
My friends, if EURUSD reaches the positive levels between 1.16418 and 1.16216, I will open a buy position and target the 1.17075 level.
Additionally, buy opportunities may also come from the 1.16604-1.16542 levels, but for me, the most suitable positive buy zone is between 1.16418 and 1.16216.
My friends, I share these analyses thanks to each like I receive from you. Your likes increase my motivation and encourage me to support you in this way.🙏✨
Thank you to all my friends who support me with their likes.❤️
USDJPY – Daily Compression at Key Demand: COT Divergence PointsFrom a COT perspective, the overall picture remains consistent with a phase of potential short-term structural weakening in the JPY, while at the same time showing signs of maturity in the USDJPY move. On JPY futures, Non-Commercial traders are still net long the yen (longs exceeding shorts), but the latest data highlights an increase in short positions alongside a reduction in longs, a typical distribution pattern following months of accumulation. At the same time, Non-Commercials on the Dollar Index remain heavily net short, suggesting that USD strength is increasingly fragile and driven more by tactical flows than by strong long-term conviction. This COT divergence historically tends to favor corrective moves on USDJPY rather than impulsive upside extensions.
On the daily chart, the technical structure is well defined: after the strong bullish impulse in November, price is developing a consolidation flag / descending channel, characterized by lower highs and compression toward a clearly defined daily demand zone between 154.00 and 154.50. This area has already been defended multiple times and aligns with a volume equilibrium zone. A clean break below this demand would open room toward the lower demand area around 152.00–152.50, while as long as price holds above the base of the channel, the bias remains corrective rather than structurally bearish. From a technical standpoint, the higher-probability scenario is a reaction from the demand zone with an attempt to break the upper trendline, rather than an immediate downside acceleration.
USDJPY seasonality in December has been historically positive to neutral-bullish over the past 10–20 years, with a tendency for recoveries in the second half of the month following early weakness. This supports the case for a technical rebound rather than a direct bearish continuation. Retail sentiment is almost perfectly balanced (51% long / 49% short), providing no extreme contrarian signal and reinforcing the idea of a market in a waiting and building phase, consistent with the current daily range and compression.
Overall, the operational bias remains neutral-to-bullish on weakness. The 154.00–154.50 area is a key reaction zone where a change in structure could justify tactical long exposure, with invalidation below daily demand. Only a decisive break and acceptance below 154 would shift the outlook toward a bearish continuation targeting 152, while a break of the descending trendline would confirm the resumption of the medium-term bullish trend toward 157.50–158.00.
ETHUSD H4 | Potential Bearish DropMomentum: Bearish
Price may retrace toward the sell entry, which has been identified as an overlap resistance level. This confluence adds significant strength to the zone.
Sell Entry: 3,079.09
Overlap resistance
Stop Loss: 3,293.66
Pullback resistance
Take Profit: 2,668.23
Swing-low support
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
LTCUSD H4 | Bearish ContinuationMomentum: Bearish
Price may retrace to the sell entry, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, adding significant strength to this level.
Sell Entry: 79.61
Pullback resistance
38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 86.49
Pullback resistance
Take Profit: 71.03
Pullback support
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
AUDUSD - Future OutlookHistorical Retrospective:
Feb 2012 - mid-Mar 2020: clear technical five-wave impulsive move down.
Mid-Mar 2020 - Feb 2021: wave A , a corrective impulsive move.
Feb 2021 - present: wave B , a three-wave correction.
Expectation:
Wave C - a five-wave corrective impulse upward.
Targets:
From the current level (wave C underway): 0.84
From the end of the impulsive move: 0.80
Summary:
We are close to a reversal or have already completed it, with a strong upward move expected next.
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Falling towards key support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot, which is an overlap support, and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 154.43
1st Support: 153.51
1st Resistance: 156.06
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party






















