EUR/USD – H1 Wedge Breakout |Bullish Momentum Targeting 1.1600📌 Setup Overview FX:EURUSD
EUR/USD has broken out of a falling wedge on H1, signalling a potential bullish trend reversal.
Price has reclaimed the Ichimoku cloud — now acting as support, showing fresh buyer strength.
• Pattern: Wedge Breakout Pattern
• Timeframe: H1 Chart
• Bias: Bullish
• Reason for setup: Breakout & Retested
🎯 Trading Plan
• Entry idea: Retest of breakout zone for confirmation before continuation
• TP1: 1.15886 (1st Resistance)
• TP2: 1.16148 (2nd Resistance / liquidity sweep zone)
🧠 Fundamental Drivers
1️⃣ 80% probability the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December → weaker USD supports bullish EUR/USD
2️⃣ Upcoming high-impact data to watch:
• EUR – German GDP
• USD – Core PPI
• USD – Retail Sales
Fundamentals currently favour bullish EUR side, with USD losing momentum.
#EURUSD #forex #forexanalysis #priceaction #chartanalysis #technicalanalysis #fundamentalanalysis #tradingview #supportandresistance #smartmoney #breakout #wedgebreakout #ichimokucloud #marketstructure
📌 What to expect
Break/retest continuation structure suggests 1.1588 is the first magnet.
If momentum remains strong, price could extend to 1.1614 liquidity zone.
🔖 SAVE this post so you don’t miss the update when levels hit.
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⚠ Disclaimer:
Trade for education/study only. Manage risk according to your own system.
DJ FXCM Index
USD/JPY – Bearish Flag Breakdown (25.11.2025)📝 Description 📌 Setup Overview FX:USDJPY
USD/JPY has completed a Bearish Flag on the M30 timeframe and price has now broken below the flag support with momentum.
The Ichimoku Cloud is acting as resistance, showing sellers stepping in again after a short pullback.
📉 Bias: Bearish continuation📍 Pattern: Bear Flag (Breakout confirmed)
🎯 Trading Plan
• Entry idea: After a clean breakout & retest confirmation below the flag base zone
• TP1: 156.055 (1st Support)
• TP2: 155.622 (2nd Support)
• SL suggestion: Above 157.000 (invalidates breakdown)
• RR potential: 1:2 — 1:3 depending on entry
🧠 Why this move makes sense
1️⃣ Price rejected Ichimoku cloud + structure resistance
2️⃣ USD weakness continues after recent pullback
3️⃣ JPY demand increases as risk sentiment cools ahead of key macro events
📌 What to expect
If price retests the flag support from below and rejects again, bearish momentum could accelerate toward 156.05 → 155.62.
💬 Your turn
Which target will hit first in your view — TP1 or TP2?
👇 Comment below — I reply to all comments.
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⚠ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade based on your plan & risk management.
#USDJPY #forex #bearflag #priceaction #tradingview #technicalanalysis #chartanalysis #forexanalysis #ickycloud #supportandresistance #forextrading #marketstructure #smartmoney
USDCAD starting a massive 2-year rally.The USDCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the May 31 2021 market bottom. In recent weeks it broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) following a June 16 2025 Higher Low, just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been holding as the natural Support since September 2022.
Given the potential peak on the 1W CCI and the similarities with the previous Higher Low bottom formations, we expect the pair to start the new long-term Bullish Leg. With the previous two Bullish Legs rising by at least +13.00%, we anticipate the price to reach 1.53000 within 2 years time.
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EURUSD Last bounce before a Lower Low.The EURUSD pair continues to trade within its 2-month Channel Down and following the start of the latest Bearish Leg since the November 13 Lower High rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we are now experiencing the first consolidation phase.
Based on the previous Bearish Legs of this pattern, this consolidation could end up in a short-term rebound limited by the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, only for it to be rejected and resume the bearish trend.
Both previous rejections eventually made a Lower Low for the Channel Down, hitting the -0.618 Fibonacci extension (minimum), declining in total Bearish Leg terms by at least -2.03%.
As a result, our 1.14200 medium-term Target (still above both conditions) remains valid, but we will close it earlier if we see the price hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and fail to close the 1D candle below it.
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USOIL : Full analysisHello friends
Well, you see that we have a descending channel in which the price is moving, and considering that the price reached the ceiling of the channel, we had a Sharpe decline, and now it seems that the sellers want to break the channel, and the first support identified could be the buyers' stronghold, where we need to see if they support the price or not.
If they support, there is a significant resistance in their way. This area is full of sell orders and can naturally correct the price. In this regard, breaking this resistance is very important and vital for price growth.
Now what if the buyers cannot support the price in the support area and the price falls further?
Well, we need to find areas again for a sell trade because if the descending channel is broken, the fall will be heavier and it is better to move with the trend.
This analysis is purely technical and is not a buy or sell recommendation.
*Trade safely with us*
Bullish continuation setup?US Dollar Index (DXY) could fall to the pivot which acts as a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a multi-swing high resitance.
Pivot: 99.80
1st Support: 99.53
1st Resistance: 100.35
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
USD Cup and Handle x2The 100-100.22 zone in DXY is a familiar one...
The latter price set the low in Q3 last year, just before the USD reversal took over, and it was back in-play as the high in August 1st of this year.
More recently, that price has held the highs earlier in November and then for the past few trading days and as yet, sellers haven't been able to take over.
The door is open for bullish breakouts in DXY and the big component of that is the 1.1500 handle in EUR/USD. If the Euro can finally get below that psychological level, the door is open for USD breaks.
The challenge then becomes the Yen, as a push up to or at least close to the 160.00 level in USD/JPY will probably elicit another intervention threat from the MoF.
Shorter-term, there's another cup and handle that's built from those recurrent resistance tests at 100.22. - js
GBP/USD — Bearish Outlook Toward 1.26867GBP/USD remains under sustained bearish pressure after failing to hold above the key structural levels at 1.34825 and 1.33906. These two resistance zones now define the upper boundary of the broader downtrend, confirming that sellers remain in control.
Price is currently moving within a corrective phase, and any recovery attempt below these key levels is expected to face renewed selling interest. The bearish continuation scenario remains valid as long as the pair stays capped below 1.33906.
The next major objective for bears is the downside target at 1.26867, corresponding to the 1.0 Fibonacci extension and the final completion zone of the current corrective wave.
A break below intermediate supports—1.31642, 1.30846, and 1.29907—will accelerate momentum toward the target.
Key Levels
Major Resistance: 1.34825
Secondary Resistance: 1.33906
Intermediate Supports: 1.31642 • 1.30846 (50%) • 1.29907 (0.618)
Final Downside Target: 1.26867
GBP USD long: 'risk on' tradeWhisper it quietly but I'm very quietly enthused by this week's 'price action'. Following on from the WILLIAMS speech on Friday, US data and the overall narrative (FED cuts are coming) continues the 'risk on' theme.
The market appears to like the UK budget, therefore I've entered GBP USD long.
Any concoction of 'risk on' trade is arguably viable, particularly long AUD (hot CPI) or NZD (hawkish cut).
Plus the JPY is showing itself as a short option.
GBP USD has made a new (recent) daily high and for better or worse I've made my choice.
The risks to the trade are 'thanksgiving lull', no considerable 1hr swing for a stop loss. Or 'out of the blue' negative market sentiment.
Once again, it is a trade I will hold through market close if necessary.
Wishing our North American friends a fantastic Thanksgiving.
DXY 7mo rounding bottom -- more gains likelyEarly 2025 saw a nasty TVC:DXY drawdown; one of the worst starts for the Dollar against foreign currencies in decades.
Despite bearish calls for the Dollar to drop significantly further it's been consolidating at the bottom of a long standing 19 year upward trend channel.
On the daily chart featured above, there's now a clear rounding bottom on TVC:DXY over the past 7+ months, with a clear, sharp uptrend in momentum right along the way.
The risk is to the upside imo.
EUR USD longSoft' US data accross the board continues the 'post WILLIAMS narrative'. Maybe the FED do need to be more dovish than the market has anticipated?
It's a short USD trade, I've chosen the EUR to long as it is the currency with the current momentum.
The risk to the trade is the world we live in and the narrative couple flip back at any moment. Plus, as is becoming increasingly common, there is no 'solid swing' to place a stop loss behind.
This is a trade I will hold overnight if necessary.
DXY Market NoteThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating within a narrow range of 100.00–100.40, a level worth monitoring for directional clarity.
At the same time, price is sitting just below a previous daily order block (OB), which acts as a supply zone. This area could cap further upside in the short term unless buyers show strong momentum to break through.
Key scenarios to watch:
Bullish breakout above 100.40 → signals continuation higher, but must overcome supply from the daily OB.
Failure to hold 100.00 → opens risk of deeper retracement toward lower support zones.
Rejection at the daily OB → could reinforce range-bound behaviour or trigger a pullback.
In summary, DXY is at a pivotal point: the weekly chart hints at strength, but the nearby daily supply zone demands caution. Waiting for confirmation, either a clean breakout or rejection will provide clearer direction.
⚠️ Disclaimer ⚠️This journal entry is for educational and documentation purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to trade. All trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
DXY at a KEY “Decision Point” on the Supply ZoneAfter an extended bullish duration, the DXY is now challenging a technically critical “Supply Zone” (100.150 – 100.600). Further away from key levels, both pump and dump up and down, momentum oscillators on all time frames give us mixed signals of exhaustion from buyers and that we are near to making a big decision in the direction of our market.
A comprehensive technical look that includes the broader structures and multi-month macroeconomic supply-demand analysis.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Critical Resistance (Purple Zone): We are currently sitting right inside that 100.150 – 100.600 corridor. This is a level we know well—it’s packed with strong selling pressure and smart money order blocks. Think of this zone as a huge mental hurdle for the bulls; trying to go "Long" here without seeing a clean, high-volume breakout is just asking for trouble with a bad risk/reward setup.
Trend Structure: That ascending yellow trendline connecting the lows since September has been holding the price up so far. But look closer—the space between the price and this trend support is squeezing tight (Compression). This usually tells us one thing: volatility is kicking in and a big move is brewing.
Negative Divergence (RSI) : Here’s the warning sign. While the daily chart is trying to make new highs or just hanging on at resistance, the RSI is losing steam and making lower highs. This "Bearish Divergence" is a classic signal that the trend is running on fumes.
Momentum (MACD) : The MACD histogram is fading out, which confirms the bulls are getting tired. It hints that profit-taking—and the sellers taking over—is likely just around the corner.
MACROECONOMIC AND FUNDAMENTAL DYNAMICS
Fed Expectations : The market is scrambling to rethink the Fed's rate path for 2025. We are watching the data like hawks right now; even a small sign of cooling in jobs or PMI data could spark a rejection from this resistance and send the DXY correcting downwards.
Bond Yields : Any pullback in the US 10-Year Treasury Yields (US10Y) is going to add fuel to the fire for sellers on the Dollar Index.
Liquidity Hunt: Watch out for the "fakeout." Market makers might try to push the price just above that 100.600 level to grab liquidity and hunt the stops of early shorters before slamming it back down. Keep your eyes peeled on the Price Action here.
STRATEGY AND OUTLOOK
Since we are banging our heads against resistance, opening new long positions here just isn't juicy enough risk-wise.
Bearish Scenario: If we see a hard crash with volume breaking that ascending yellow trendline, that seals the deal for a reversal. If that happens, we’re looking at intermediate supports first, with the main target being that 96.50 level down low.
Bullish Scenario : Unless we get a solid daily candle close above 100.800, any rallies should be looked at as opportunities to sell. If the price stays above that level, then this idea is dead in the water.
Conclusion: It’s a "sit on your hands" moment. Waiting for that trend support to break is the safest confirmation we can get before jumping in.
Disclaimer : Just sharing my personal notes and educational analysis here, not financial advice.
AUD/USD – Fundamentals Driving Downtrend | 24.11.2025Bearish Channel + Rate-Cut Expectation Pressure = Downside Continuation Setup
🔍 Technical Setup
AUD/USD continues to trade inside a falling channel, respecting the trendline resistance (multiple rejections marked). Price is currently moving toward the resistance zone, offering a potential sell-on-retest opportunity before further downside.
📌 Bias remains bearish as long as price stays below the channel resistance + Ichimoku cloud.
🎯 Trading Plan :
📌 Targets (Support Levels):
1st Support: 0.64130
2nd Support: 0.63912
📌 Invalidation / Risk:
A breakout above 0.6480 would reduce bearish bias.
⚠️ Today’s Fundamental Drivers :
1️⃣ Rate-cut expectations surged:
Markets now price 69% chance of a December rate cut, up from 44% last week → weakens AUD.
2️⃣ New York Fed statement shook sentiment:
Fed official highlighted weak job market as a bigger risk than high inflation, increasing probability of monetary easing → USD firming vs risk currencies like AUD.
➡️ When fundamentals + technical trend align, continuation move is likely.
AUDUSD analysis, AUD/USD forecast, AUDUSD sell setup, Forex signals, Australian dollar outlook, Rate cut impact on forex, AUD technical analysis, price action strategy
⚠️ Disclaimer
This chart is for educational purposes only — not financial advice.
Always manage risk and follow your own trading plan.
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Weekly FOREX Forecast: USDCAD, USDCHF & USDJPY Are Bullish!Welcome to Part 2 of The Weekly FOREX FORECAST!
Part 1 covered USD, EU, GU, AU, NU in the previous video.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly FOREX Forecast: USD Is Bullish Vs EUR, GBP, AUD NZDWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast!
This is Part 1 of the FOREX futures outlook for the week of Nov 24-28th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Forex: Weekly Review Overall market sentiment was, at best, 'choppy' during the week starting Monday 17 November.
A continuation of recent themes (AI overvaluation concerns / hawkish FED repricing) ensured an underlying tentativiity throughout the week and any positivity was short lived (NVIDEA earnings / GOOGLE positivity). Even the return of NFP, with a headline beat, ultimately proved negative as a December FED rate cut diminished to 30%.
All in all, it's a difficult environment, correlations have broken down, particularly the JPY, which struggled throughout the week thanks to the government stimulus. And It currently appears the BOJ don't have rate hike plans until spring 2026. Which brings intervention chatter to the fore. It's likely the BOJ will synchronise intervention with 'soft' US data. And once the BOJ do intervene, it will ultimately be a 'short JPY opportunity'. In the meantime 'verbal intervention threats' (jawboning) will be a 'risk' to any short JPY trades.
The AUD continues to under perform its fundamentals, weighed down by the tepid environment. And the run of soft UK data continues, the GBP remains remarkably resilient. All eyes are on the upcoming UK budget.
On Friday, we did get a FED twist, against the grain, New York FED president WILLIAMS mooted a near term rate cut. There is a theory this was a coordinated speech, lining up a December cut, appeasing the market and swinging the FED RATE MONITOR back towards a December cut. Whether it will prove to be a short lived 'relief bounce', only time will tell. The sooner we get a run of 'real time' US data, the better.
I begin the new week without a clear bias, I'll be reading headlines and watching the VIX in an attempt to guage how serious the market is one way or the other.
On a personal note, it was a week I found difficult to form a solid conviction, only one trade. And it was a particularly speculative AUD CHF short, when I felt the chart was going to roll over. The trade stopped out quite quickly during one of those brief periods of positivity. I'm currently envisioning a continuation of only one or two trades per week and I'm content to slightly up my risk percentage in an attempt to make up the numbers.
Let's see what the new week brings.
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 99.41
1st Support: 98.61
1st Resistance: 101.92
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
US Dollar: Look For Buys As The Pullback Ends!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Nov. 17 - 21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD was in retracement last week. It looks like that may be ending, and a new bullish leg could potential start early this week.
Wait patiently for the bullish shift in the market at a key poi... like the Weekly +FVG highlighted in the video. The 1H TF should make this obvious, and look to long the USD against its currency counterparts.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
USDJPY long-term bullish within 3-year Channel UpThe USDJPY pair has been trading within a 3-year Channel Up ever since the October 17 2022 High.
Right now it has been unfolding its latest Bullish Leg since the April 21 2025 bottom (Higher Low), turning its 1W RSI this week overbought (>70.00).
This signal along with the similarities with the June 26 2023 local High, point towards a potential short-term pull-back to test the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA100 (red trend-line) Support cluster.
As you can see, those have been the two Support levels on every major rally within this 3-year pattern.
As a result, we will look for an additional opportunity to buy there, maintaining a medium-term Target for this pair at 161.500 (Resistance 1).
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GBP/USD - Fundamental Ahead - UK Tax & Upcoming Budget The GBP/USD Pair, Price has been trading within a wedge Pattern on the H1 chart, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. Price action is now testing the lower boundary of the pattern, signalling a possible breakdown. FPMARKETS:GBPUSD
✅Market Context:
1️⃣Downward structure building inside the pattern.
2️⃣Sellers are showing strength near support levels.
3️⃣Breakdown below the trendline indicates momentum continuation toward lower zones.
✅Trade Plan:
Entry: Sell after confirmed breakdown below the support (Candle close below trendline or retest of the breakout).
💰Take Profit (TP): At the Key Zone – major support area identified ahead.
🛑Stop Loss (SL): Above the pattern structure / recent swing high.
✅Psychological Discipline:
1️⃣Stick to plan – No Revenge Trades.
2️⃣Accept losing trades as part of the strategy.
3️⃣Risk only 1–2% of your account balance per trade.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Forex trading involves high risk. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose and always do your own research.
Bullish bounce off?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance resistance.
Pivot: 99.78
1st Support: 99.34
1st Resistance: 100.71
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.






















