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The Turkish FUD Hype slowly faded offThe USD is strong against the Pound Euro Yen Yuan, but this is only because they have been devalued so much.
Turkey did not immediately go into a collapse, as usual investors have overreacted, now that I think of BTC it is the opposite where they undereact to every thing and happily let whales dump and they hold until they have nothing left XD.
The Lira went way down way too fast I guess, and things are getting a little better.
Hey, of course not as good as Erdogan was hoping for but he is insane, so it is not bad news that things are not as good as the governement predicted.
Looks like the hype has been slowly fading away, and I am looking at a dump in the next weeks.
Some reversal examples:
etc.
Good news everybody, there is big positive swap short, I think it is around 15% of the Daily ATR every day in our pockets.
If the price enters in the red circle here, it could be interesting to go short and hold that for a few months.
+ High RR
+ Turkey more bullish than scam monetary policies US & EU, I think investors overreacted to TR and undereacted to the US pyramid scheme verge of civil war situation
+ And also didn't realise the USD was only strong because of devaluated EURO etc
+ Price in distribution ABC top
+ Interest is very interesting, not as storng as it was a few months back if I recall, but still pretty good, probably it will get less crazy as the price drops
USD/TRY: Weekly Perfectly Shaping Up To Equilibrium Range!Hello dear Turkish Lira traders, merhaba arkadaslar! ;)
Let's have a look at our previous analysis from August 11th:
=> We perfectly bounced of from the support. I had already posted about the Weekly tightening range on August 3rd:
Conclusion: This tightening will see a break coming in the coming months, and will dictate the bigger timeframe direction of USD/TRY.
Selamlar, Deniz from Edgy
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4 CYCLES IN TRY/USD AND 2020 PREDICTIONTRYUSD (Reverse of USDTRY)
Starting from 2014 :
There have been 3 similar cycles.
All cycles starts with a reverse cup&handle and
ends with a sharp fall from the support line that is the bottom of that reverse cup & handle.
We are in the 4th cycle now and if it continues like that my prediction is :
On January 1st : 1USD = 11 TRY
USD/TRY is going in an uptrend channel to 5,92Due to short of cash in Turkey, USD is gaining power against TRY day by day. We can see some small corrections to support of chnanel like 5,78 - 5,80 but the trend is going upwards since 5,50's.
Uptrending channel will meet with the resistance at the end of August and than we can see some steep movements probably upwards or maybe some corrections. Until than, I expect the value will continue to 5,9x
USD/TRY is forming a second pennant move We can see on the half hour graph that USDTRY is forming a second pennant formation.
We have to wait and see other indicators to support this move such as Parabolic SAR and RSI. Moving average is crossing the bollinger middle band as I'm publishing this. Volume is getting higher in each stick forms. Also bollinger bands narrowed down for a move. Target of this pennant will be around 5,81
This morning price made a false break of pennant support. Just like it did on the first pennant formation. And the steep uptrend started right after this false break. Most probably that false break stopped many people's trade.
USDTRY 4H Long buy opportunity We can take a long buy trade
from recent levels :
5.5730 - 5.6200
TP1 : 5.7700
TP2 : 5.9630
TP3 : 6.1830
Stop Loss : 5.4000
This is not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell
It is just an analysis based on a study of the history of price action
Behavior , that may not be a necessarily reason for the success of
the structure or repetition. So please make your decision based on your vision .
To protect capital and manage your deals and trading successfully
the maximum loss in each transaction for the same currency or
commodity in the same direction should not exceed ( 2% ) of the capital .
Good luck






















