AVAX 1D Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing AVAX on the 1-Day timeframe timeframe.
👀 In the daily timeframe of AVAX, after the drop it experienced, AVAX entered a box with a long-term range. The ceiling and floor of this box are in the area of $16 and $26. The time range of this box or its length is almost 170 days. At the ceiling of this box, there are strong seller tickers that get their sell orders activated every time the price reaches this area. To break this zone and for a good rise of AVAX, we need a very strong and high-volume momentum that causes a price jump and fills the sell orders.
💰 In the daily timeframe of AVAXBTC we can see a relatively good compression formed in this area, and with the breakout of the Bitcoin ceiling, more Bitcoin will be converted into AVAX and it can be a good confirmation for a long position and some spot buying. The area considered for the alarm zone is 0.0002286.
⚙️ Two key areas for RSI have been considered. Passing the swing limits of 61 and 40 can bring good volatility to AVAX and help it break out of this RSI compression that is seen as a box.
🕯 The area considered as the seller ticker is a strong one, and every time the price reached this area, we faced selling pressure. The size of the green candles is also larger compared to the red candles, and each time the compression area became smaller and the price is ready for a breakout and reaction (not today but next week).
🔔 The area we considered as the alarm zone for AVAX is $26, and with the breakout of this area, AVAX can move towards higher price levels. Price behavior at $26 can give us complete awareness for trading.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
VOL
HBAR 4H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing HBAR on the 4-hour timeframe timeframe .
👀 On the 4H timeframe for HBAR , we can observe that this coin is ranging inside a box with very strong support and resistance levels. The last time, it reacted to the midline of this box (50% zone) and has built a trading structure for a potential breakout.
⚙️ The key RSI levels are at 57 and 35. Once the oscillation surpasses these levels, the price of this coin can shift and bring momentum into the market. Keep in mind that these zones often indicate increased volatility in the direction of price movement.
🕯 The volume of this coin has been decreasing over the past few days, and the number of trades has significantly dropped. Many buy and sell orders have been filled, and the coin is currently ranging in this box, deciding its next direction. Notice that with declining volume, we can often identify a new trend forming, since the current trend may be coming to an end.
📊 On the OTHERS.D index 4H timeframe , we can see that it is also moving inside a box, with the top of the box at the 7.9% zone . Breaking this level along with the RSI surpassing 63 could bring strong volume into the market. At the same time,
📊 a breakout on the TOTAL3 index would also inject solid volume into the market. This index is likewise inside a box, and the last time it reacted to its midline, it rebounded upward and is now moving toward the 1.08 resistance.
💰 Looking at the HBAR/BTC pair , we can observe that it has formed a box-like structure, similar to its USDT pair. With a breakout above the midline, more Bitcoin could be liquidated and converted into this coin. HBAR is considered one of the whales’ favorite coins.
🔔 The alert zones for HBAR carry some risk, and the possibility of failure should also be considered. The long alert zone is around 0.25846, which is the midline of this 4H box. The short alert zone is around 0.22784. Breaking this zone could provide a short position, coinciding with a deeper correction for this coin.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
ETH 1H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 5💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing ETH on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe .
🔭 On the 1H timeframe for Ethereum, we can observe that ETH is moving inside a 1-hour range box, which has also formed with a V-pattern structure. A breakout and consolidation above or below this box can provide us with either a long or short trade setup.
⛏ The key RSI level is around 62, where Ethereum has been ranging for almost 2 days below this level with support around the 50 zone. Once the oscillation surpasses these levels, Ethereum can start its next move.
💰 The volume and number of green and red candles are almost equal. However, with larger green candles and rising volume, we can say that Ethereum is holding a good amount of accumulation volume.
📊 On the 1H timeframe of ETHBTC , we can observe that the alert zone for confirming a long position in Ethereum has slightly shifted lower, now sitting around 0.0415. Breaking this zone could allow Ethereum to move toward higher resistance levels and potentially even register a new all-time high.
💡 Looking at Ethereum’s alert zones, the level for a long position is around $4556, while the level for a short position is around $4329. With a breakout and consolidation above or below these areas, Ethereum gives us trade opportunities. Monitoring price behavior in these zones can be of great help in decision-making.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTC 1H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 24💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe .
👀 On the 1-hour Bitcoin chart, BTC is in a box and has formed a V-pattern. Breaking the box's ceiling would trigger the V-pattern breakout. The breakout trigger for Bitcoin is at $112,200.
⚙️ Key RSI levels are 64 and 46. When oscillation crosses 64, Bitcoin’s momentum heads toward overbought.
🕯 Volume, size, and number of green candles have increased, with buyer makers present. There was an attempt to break resistance with higher volume, but seller takers pushed the price back. Buyer makers then guided the price up from a higher low. Breaking resistance needs more volume.
💵 On the 1-hour USDT.D chart, Tether dominance is at 4.35%. Breaking this could bring significant trading volume to Bitcoin.
🔔 Bitcoin’s trading alarm zone is at $112,200, where price action could be highly reliable. No specific short position idea, but if $110,000 breaks with heavy selling, I might open a position.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTC 4H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 23💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe .
👀 On the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, after hitting a new high, BTC faced a quick rug pull/sell-off with strong momentum toward the $112,000 support. It then bounced with a solid 4-hour candle toward the $117,000 resistance but got heavily rejected again with selling pressure. BTC is now around $110,000, supported once by buyer makers. Today, check Forex Factory for key US economic news that could impact the market.
⚙️ Key RSI level is near 30; crossing this with high volatility could intensify selling pressure, offering a small risk opportunity. Another key level at 64; breaking this could form a higher low compared to the previous one.
🕯 Red candles are increasing in size and volume, with fewer but larger candles moving downward, indicating sustained selling pressure.
💵 On the 1-hour USDT.D chart, after breaking 4.44%, it’s moving upward but showing trend weakness. This level is key for BTC’s highs and lows. A rejection and drop in dominance could boost BTC and BTC pairs, while a hold above 4.44% could deepen BTC’s correction.
🔔 Trading alarm zones are at $112,240 and $109,800. A break and hold above/below these could offer trade setups. Always check oscillator conditions and Tether dominance. Also, focus on BTC pairs — they provide more momentum with less capital.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTC 1H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 22💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe .
👀 On the 1-hour Bitcoin chart, after the last attempt to push toward resistance, it faced a strong rejection at $115,000 and moved toward the box's lower boundary. Currently in the alarm zone for a short position, but personally, I wouldn’t open a short here.
⚙️ Key RSI levels are 45 and 20. The 20 level is a support in the heart of oversold territory, where Bitcoin’s volatility spikes and often sees a reversal. The 45 level acts as resistance, with volatility triggering reversals upon hitting it.
🕯 Volume shows larger and more frequent red candles, with price heading toward its support levels.
💵 USDT.D broke and held above 4.27% but got rejected at 4.4%. A break and hold above 4.4% could increase selling pressure on Bitcoin.
🔔 Bitcoin’s alarm zones today aren’t very logical, so we can focus on altcoins instead. I’ll post a few altcoin picks on TradingView and the channel today.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTC 4H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 20💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 4-hour timeframe timeframe .
👀 On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is moving inside a 4H range box. The top of this box is at the $122,300 level and the bottom is at the $112,000 level. The midline of the box is around $117,000, and after touching this level the price got rejected downwards .
⚙️ On the RSI, we have two key zones: 30 and 64. When the oscillator crosses these zones, long or short trading volatility increases and the probability of entering overbought or oversold conditions rises .
🕯 On the 4H chart, the size of the buying candles has become noticeably large. After yesterday’s news, the market faced holidays and volume decreased, but with the opening of the new weekly candle, we may see an increase in trading volume. This could bring more volume into long positions .
💵 USDT.D on the 4-hour timeframe has a support at 4.19% and a resistance at 4.35%. Breaking either of these levels could inject significant volume into Bitcoin. Tether selling volume has been relatively strong and faced selling pressure, which could push this drop further .https://www.tradingview.com/x/4bTsKokC
🔔 Our trading alarm zones are placed at $117,000 and $112,000. Price action around these levels, with the start of the new week, can be strong. Selling pressure on Tether and a potential interest rate cut may shift the market sentiment toward long positions .
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTC 4H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 19💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 4-hour timeframe timeframe .
👀 On the 4H timeframe of Bitcoin we observe that, after being rejected from the 115,000$ area, it is moving towards its support in the 112,000$ zone .
⚙️ We have two key areas on RSI: the support area around 30, where RSI is currently located, and the key zone for a trend change around 73, where volatility usually increases .
🕯 The size of the red candles has each time been larger than the green candles, showing stronger selling pressure .
💵 USDT.D on the 4H timeframe has resistance around the 4.46% area. If this area breaks, Bitcoin selling pressure will increase .Note that Tether dominance is close to its 4H top .
🔜 Today is the Jackson Hole event .
🔔 The alarm zone for a short position is at the 112,000$ level. If this level is lost and price action confirms, we can have a very low-risk trade. For a long position, breaking the 115,000$ area could be the start of a trend reversal .
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTC 1H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 18💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe .
👀 On the 1-hour timeframe of Bitcoin, we can see that after hitting the $115,000 zone, it got rejected with a relatively strong red candle and is now moving toward its support at $112,700 .
⚙️ We have two key zones in the RSI : the support zone at 30 , and the resistance zone for long positions at 59.67. Breaking these levels can push Bitcoin toward its alarm zone and sensitive price area for a breakout .
🕯 The size of the red candles is getting smaller , showing reduced selling pressure , while the green reversal candles from $112,700 are closing larger and stronger than before .
💵 USDT.D on the 1-hour timeframe is moving toward its resistance at 4.46% , but the trend is weakening and the size of the buying candles is shrinking . In previous attempts to reach this zone, it faced rejection . If the 4.36% support level is lost , strong inflows could move into Bitcoin .
🔔 Our trading alarm zones are at $115,000 and $112,700 . These zones usually break with increased volume and volatility , and by watching price behavior there , we can find the best trading opportunities .
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTC 1H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 17💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe .
👀 On the 1-hour timeframe, we can see that Bitcoin, after losing the $115,000 support zone, moved toward its next support at $113,000 .
⚙️ Our key RSI zone is 27.89, and if this level is lost, Bitcoin will face more selling pressure. The next key RSI zone is 49.74, and breaking above this level could push Bitcoin higher .
🕯 The size of the red candles has increased, and with each rise in trading volume, selling pressure grows stronger. Step by step, as supports are lost (big money in whale wallets and unrealized positions being released), Bitcoin faces heavier selling pressure .
💵 USD.D on the 1-hour timeframe is moving upward and is facing a strong resistance around 4.5%. If this resistance is broken, Bitcoin will likely come under even more selling pressure .
🔔 Our Bitcoin alert zone is set at $113,000: if this zone is broken, Bitcoin could fall to lower support levels. Our alert zone for a long trade is $115,000, and by observing price action around these two zones, we can identify the best type of trade .
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTC 1H Analysis – Key Triggers Ahead | Day 4💀 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you !
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-hour timeframe .
👀 After triggering our long entry levels , Bitcoin faced increased buying volume , and the U.S . unemployment claims came in higher than expected, which was interpreted positively for the crypto market .
🔼 With rising buying volume, Bitcoin may continue moving toward higher levels and could even aim for a new local high. Our key support zones are the same trigger levels we've been watching—these are also our ideal long entry points .
⚡️ There is a strong resistance around $117,000, where taker sellers are actively selling their Bitcoin at premium prices. In order to break through this area, we’ll need solid volume inflow from both market makers and retail buyers .
⚙️ There’s no clear RSI support zone at the moment, since on the 1-hour chart RSI is already in the Overbought area and oscillating there .
📈 Long position : Be a bit patient here . Wait for Bitcoin to pull back to key Fibonacci levels , preferably around 0.236 and 0.382, and then bounce back up . Once we break above the pullback, you can consider entering a long trade .
📉 Short position : A short setup could form only if both of our marked trigger levels get stop -hunted, combined with increased selling pressure , support breakouts , and confirmation from bearish candlestick patterns.
That said — we are not looking to short right now, as there are better opportunities to catch strong long entries .
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
what is the most effective indicator?There isn’t a single "most effective" trading indicator that works for everyone, as effectiveness depends on your trading style, strategy, and the market conditions. However, some indicators are considered more versatile or reliable when used correctly. Here's a breakdown to help you choose:
Most Effective for Trends:
Moving Averages (EMA or SMA):
Simple and effective for identifying trends.
Works well in trending markets but less reliable in sideways or choppy markets.
Pro Tip: Combine short-term and long-term moving averages for crossovers.
Ichimoku Cloud:
A comprehensive indicator that provides trend direction, support/resistance, and momentum.
Effective but requires practice to interpret correctly.
Most Effective for Overbought/Oversold Levels:
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
One of the most popular and effective indicators for spotting overbought or oversold conditions.
Works well in both trending and range-bound markets when combined with other tools.
Stochastic Oscillator:
Similar to RSI but includes %K and %D lines for crossovers.
Effective for momentum confirmation.
Most Effective for Volatility:
Bollinger Bands:
Great for identifying periods of high or low volatility and potential breakout zones.
Useful for sideways (range-bound) markets and trend reversals.
Average True Range (ATR):
Excellent for setting stop-loss levels and identifying market volatility trends.
Works well in conjunction with trend indicators.
Most Effective for Momentum:
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
Ideal for spotting trend reversals and momentum shifts.
Effective when used with a confirmation indicator like RSI.
Parabolic SAR:
Simple for identifying trend direction and potential exit points.
Works best in trending markets.
Combination for Higher Effectiveness:
Trend + Momentum: Combine EMA with MACD to identify trends and entry/exit points.
Overbought/Oversold + Volume: Use RSI with Volume Indicators (e.g., OBV) to confirm breakouts or reversals.
Volatility + Trend: Use Bollinger Bands with Ichimoku Cloud to spot breakout opportunities with clear trend guidance.
VIX back to $20?With economists celebrating the "goldilocks economy" and VIX breaking below the lower bound of the pattern, the big question lingers: "Is this another fakeout before resurgence to $20?"
Illustration 1.01
The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the pattern we have been observing since its early formation.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX is showing signs of awakeningAs the stock market is beginning to manifest weakness, we are paying close attention to the VIX, which is starting to exhibit signs of awakening.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
"Aggressive" VIX Short/ES Long SetupPossible volatility short/equities long shaping up. Still a lot of downside momentum/catching a bit of a falling knife + we'd rather see the NQ fill its gap south of 14400, but it could be time to start thinking about index longs given the levels both stocks and vol are approaching. Given that the Nasdaq still has further to fall before completing its gap fill, the ES could easily continue its decline (watch support/resistance levels ~4200). Something to keep in mind... Personally, we are waiting for confirmation entries before buying (looking for trend reversal signals on small timeframes), but more aggressive traders may find existing conditions more suitable for starter positions. Targeting is loosely based off of the red ES zones, but can also be mechanically derived and should be refined. Good luck!
JHart @ LionHart Trading
VIX - The 72-Handle PreludeI will reiterate again, as I have in my past posts, notably:
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal
That if you are bullish on US equities into the future and want to see a healthy economy into '24 and '25, you DO NOT want to see a new all time high to be set yet.
Instead, you want a correction.
A major correction is just that: a correction. A correction gives a number of elements an opportunity to rebalance and reload so that a new phase of markup, and thus profits for longs, can unfold.
The VIX controls a lot of things, namely the price of options. Really, what this means for most people is it controls the price of "protection," i.e. puts.
And since the VIX is now trading at a low not seen since June of '21 and in an area of accumulation that spanned 3 years between '18 and '20, if you think a new all time high on equities is coming, you're actually saying that VIX is going to trade to 5.
And you may very well be right. It's a very difficult situation.
However, net liquidity is coming out of the system, and the indexes and equities rallied from mid-June to mid-August of last year. The algorithm rarely runs the same pattern at the same time twice.
Moreover, there's a lot of problems brewing in this world with the War in Ukraine connected to Vladimir Putin and the situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping still at the helm of the notorious and unforgivable Chinese Communist Party.
There are handles a major arranged correction in the markets are not going to print on VIX.
1. VIX will not print GFC highs
2. VIX will not print the millennial-titled "Coronavirus Disease 2019" highs
3. VIX will not print 50-handles
Instead, VIX, in my opinion, will print a 72-handle.
One of the truths in the market place is the easiest and most consistent money is not only that the market goes up, but selling volatility after the dust on periodical propaganda has settled is free money.
A free money train always continues and you're never a part of it because you're trying to long MULN and Bed Bloodbath and Beyond for a MOASS.
So, let's take a look at the ETFs. There are some notable pieces of evidence in the price action that show something ought to change, and quickly.
The first is in the SVXY inverse VIX ETF, which has taken out the pre-COVID high, and by a lot.
LT short seller funds: they dead.
But a more notable case is that of the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF
It was 5:1 reverse split to start the year, had one bounce during the bank collapse hysteria, and then lost 80% of its value.
UVIX trades under $1 pre-split.
You're looking for a MOASS on shitcoins, but here's a real opportunity.
Notable is also that HUV, the Toronto Stock Exchange VIX (non-levered bull) ETF, is in a similar boat.
It 6:1 reverse split in February, had one bounce, and lost half its value, trading to barely over $3 pre-split.
You can care about Canada because there are arbitrage opportunities with the USDCAD currency pair and because our holidays and your holidays are not the same, like "Juneteenth," and so there is opportunity in manipulation.
What I can say is that there's an argument, if nothing else, to long volatility in extreme situations as a way of defending your long positions.
People are willing to allocate 40 percent of their portfolio to bonds that just don't go up when the market pumps and don't go up when the market goes down.
So why not hedge with volatility?
That being said, if Nasdaq goes to 9,000 points, are you really willing to hold your $400 NVDIA?
Humans never believe in what they don't see. They only believe after they've been shown, and then it's too late.
What I truly hope for everyone who has a kind heart is not only that you can preserve your money through the chaos and manipulation, but walk out of the machinations stronger, better, healthier, and with a bright future.
For this, and only this, is what you have waited for.
VIX is back to the 2021 level that preceeded market meltdownVIX fell below $16 after trying to take hold of $20 last week. The current value of VIX coincides with that, which it contained in November 2021, just before the market meltdown began. Taking into consideration that interest rates are nothing like they were in 2021 and the rally in stocks has been thus far driven mainly by a handful of companies, we are growing increasingly worried about the complacency present in the market.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
$DYP looks veeeery interesting RNLook at vol breakout on 30 min TF underside of triangle is still resistance
Opening gap, and VIX rising more than 9%We want to hint at the opening gap in the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX), potentially foreshadowing big moves in the market.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX - Volatility about to creep back in the marketIn tandem with our bearish assessment of the stock market, we predict the return of increased volatility in the market. As a result, we would like to set a medium-term price target for VIX at 30 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the weekly chart of VIX.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
When is VIX a buy? Is this a good time to buy?The truth is that it is a buy whenever the VIX gets close to 20. Since November, and especially since the war in Ukraine broke out, I've said that the VIX below 20 is a steal. The VIX has just had a mini jump because of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, but if nothing happens between the US and China, it could fall lower.
Personally believe that stocks have another 7% higher to go, which could crush VIX below 20 for a while. However, I think this would be a bear trap and a great opportunity for bulls to go through long volatility. In the short term, stocks could correct a bit more before going higher, which could cause the index to go up a bit, though I don't think a big breakout or anything like it is coming. My long-term goal (6-12 months) remains 45-50 on the index, but it needs some time to get there, and it must inflict even more pain on all those who have been holding puts over the last year.
$NKE Iron Condor IdeaAfter being struck down -7% post ER and general weak market, I like the idea of selling puts on NKE via an Iron Condor (bull put spread and bear call spread).
With a demand zone 95-100 area, I opened 2x position 100/95p bull spread and 1x position 125/130c bear spreads with another 1x to be added on next green week ( assuming we get one) to capture better call premium .
Opex a few months out will give this trade idea time to work and capture more premium.
If you're more bearish than I on this name, an idea would be to adjust the calls closer to the underlying , say 110/115, however after today's purge I favor the probability on the upside hence the 2x put spread
Iron condors are nice because you can adjust the position as the stock moves (adding more legs, etc. ) with the trade making max profit if Nike is between 100 and 125 in the coming months.
Cheers
Volatility is contained, but for how long?Despite the Russia-Ukraine war, despite inflation being at record highs, the DXY making a new high since 2015-2016, the bond market being in its largest bear market and with equities down 20-30%, the VIX hasn't really spiked yet. So far volatility has been contained and every time the VIX would get overbought at 35 or above, it would slowly get back down. However I don't believe that it can get much lower without spiking first. In the short term it could get down to 20, but given the current circumstances, it is very hard for me to imagine that the top for the VIX won't come at around 48 or above. It is also very hard for me to imagine that it would get significantly below 20, therefore going long the VIX at 20 or below is a great strategy until the Fed pivots. However once it gets to 48 or higher it is time to start going long everything as the Fed is probably going to step in and try to save markets.