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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/22/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25285.50 - PR Low: 25257.75 - NZ Spread: 62.25 No key scheduled economic events Quick dip and rotation back towards ATH Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Session Open ATR: 385.15 - Volume: 24K - Open Int: 290K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/21/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25330.00 - PR Low: 25308.00 - NZ Spread: 49.0 Re-approaching ATH No key scheduled economic events Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM) - Session Open ATR: 398.28 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 292K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by mv3trader5
Gold – Price Correction, or Price Reversal?Gold volatility picked up dramatically last week as concerns regarding the ability of regional US banks to absorb losses from bad loans jostled for position as the new reason for owning Gold as a safe haven hedge with escalating trade tensions between the US and China. These drivers joined a growing list of problems supporting why traders and investors could be so focused on adding Gold, and other precious metals, to their portfolios including geo-political risks in Ukraine and the Middle East, unsustainable government debt levels in countries like the US, Japan, France and the UK, as well as the potential for more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. To showcase how volatility has increased, last week Gold traded from its Monday open at 4012 to a new record high on Friday of 4379, before reversing direction to close the week at 4247. Despite a 1.8% fall on Friday, it still posted a weekly gain of 5.8% and on the way registered its biggest ever weekly price gain in dollar terms (+$235). This type of movement could reflect the increased involvement of speculators in Gold, which can exaggerate price moves as they are quicker to enter and exit positions. When considering trading Gold in this type of environment it could be worthwhile looking to reduce position sizes to account for bigger price swings and accommodate the need for wider stop loss and take profit parameters. Keeping apprised of scheduled event risk can also be useful, for example, the release on Friday (1330 BST) of the delayed US CPI reading, which could influence whether Federal Reserve policymakers feel they are able to cut interest rates by 25bps (0.25%) at their meeting on October 29th. Identifying and monitoring key technical levels and trends can also be important. Technical Update: Price Correction, or Price Reversal? From the August 20th low into Friday’s new all-time high, Gold has risen an impressive 32.25%, reflecting a sustained uptrend. As illustrated in the chart below, corrections during this phase of strength have been brief, typically lasting just one session, with only a single instance of a two-day pullback (marked by the red candles). Each dip has consistently attracted fresh support, helping prices post successive highs and reinforcing the strength of the underlying upside momentum. This recent activity underscores the positive sentiment behind Gold, despite traditional indicators having signalled stretched upside conditions for some time. Notably, Bollinger bands continue to reflect a positive technical backdrop, with the mid-average rising, price action touching the upper band, and the bands widening, a sign of increasing price volatility and upward momentum. Friday’s pullback following the new all-time high at 4379 may be sparking fresh debate among traders, whether this is just another brief correction, as seen during the current uptrend, or the start of a more extended phase of weakness. Historically, similar dips have quickly attracted support, but upcoming sessions may prove pivotal in determining whether upside momentum can resume or if a period of deeper consolidation is on the horizon. In this type of environment it may be prudent to establish potentially relevant support and resistance levels to monitor that could have an impact on the direction of Gold prices. Potential Support Levels: Price corrections following strong advances are a typical market response to short-term upside overextension, and Gold may well be entering such a phase. Traders could now focus on 4165 as the first key support, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October strength. This level holding if price weakness is seen, could stabilise sentiment, while a closing break lower may lead to a deeper pullback. A closing break below 4165 wouldn’t necessarily signal a shift in downside sentiment, but it could open tests of 4099, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, even towards 4033, a level equal to the deeper 61.8% level. Potential Resistance Levels: Having stalled on Friday at the 4379 level it is possible this now marks initial resistance for the coming week. If the uptrend pattern from the August 20th low is to persist, a close above 4379 may lead to a more extended phase of price strength. While not a guarantee of higher price levels, successful closes above 4379 may open scope toward 4416, the 238.2% Fibonacci extension, and if this gives way on towards 4506, which is equal to the 261.8% extension. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
October 20 - 24 2025 1. Macro Due to the government shutdown inflation-indexed bond data is delayed, however what we are seeing based on data from Thursday (as shown on the white vertical line) suggests that forward inflation expectations $(US10Y+US03MY)/2-DFII10 may be reverting back to the mean, which is supported by TVC:US10Y rising slightly. The long term vs short term yield spread TVC:US10Y -US03MY has tightened and is very close to inverting, which was driven by long term yields plunging last week - a rush to safety. Another long-term bond rally could invert the yield curve, often a risk-off signal if it remains inverted and widens. The dollar is finding support near its average and gold is sitting at all time highs (more on gold later). On the commodity side, Oil NYMEX:CL1! continues to slide, aided by fragile stability in the middle east. My ag/industrial gauge $(COPPER1!+ZC1!)/2/DXY is still elevated but lacks momentum. Nothing interesting to glean here other than the fact that higher commodity prices are not significantly affecting forward inflation expectations (for now). Oil’s continued downtrend is certainly playing a factor, however the pause in Fed data could also make any potential inflationary impact more delayed than usual. When it comes to bonds, watch closely and proceed with caution. 2. FX The dollar index is still well below other currency indices for the year but I have all of the charts on this layout indexed to 100 to show recent relative activity. The dollar TVC:DXY has recently seen stronger performance compared to other currencies, though the others have been on the uptick in recent days . The important takeaway here can be seen on the 10Y yield comparison chart. Since the beginning of October, aside from Japan, buyers have pushed 10Y yields in the US, Eurozone and Britain down. This may suggest a rush to safety due to economic fears beyond just the US. 3. Risk On the top left chart, you can see that the corporate bond option-adjusted spread average (high-yield & investment-grade) could have either peaked or is on the uptick. Since this data is only available at the end of the day, it’s best to proceed with caution. Next, I want to highlight something I recently noticed when comparing the TVC:GOLD chart to its volatility index CBOE:GVZ . Last week while Gold was reaching all time highs, there was heavy buying of AMEX:GLD puts (GVZ was up over +20% on Thursday), which has pushed Gold down on the $GOLD/GVZ spread recently. I have included Gold on the bottom chart and marked the points where the ratio fell far below the standard deviation of (1) as shown via the Keltner Channel indicator on all of the charts. Looking at the previous three points where this extremity occurred, there seems to be some alignment with severe underperformance of S&P 500 Futures vs gold and stock market bottoms. Since asset prices are currently seen as elevated and Gold is close to crossing above the CME_MINI:ES1! return since January 2020, the message this sends to me is that the gold rally is fear-driven rather than fundamentally-driven. Investors are aware that gold may be overstretched and are buying insurance. Fear without fundamentals can quickly become a buying opportunity for equities, especially when continued rate cuts (which in theory should help both Gold and Equities) are taken into consideration. If nothing fundamentally changes, and investors decide to start dumping gold, it would be expected to see equities catch a bid. I’m also continuing to watch $SPY/RSP (SPY vs equal-weight ETF) and $NQ1!/YM1! to assess risk-on vs defensive bias. Right now the momentum towards risk is flat but the Russell TVC:RUT has slid more compared to the other indices recently, suggesting a rotation out of small caps, which supports the bias that both spreads could continue higher in favor of Risk, however that is just an assumption. When looking at specific sectors, despite Consumer Staples ( AMEX:XLP ) finding support, I’m not yet seeing signs that the market is abandoning tech. All of this shows that recent volatility has not changed the market’s sector positioning in a significant way, however keeping an eye on XLP for now will be very important, as it could signal a risk-off day if $XLP/XLK rises strongly. 4. Bias ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) I have changed my approach to trading to be more short-term, so I will not try to draw any weekly conclusions via this chart, however from Friday’s volatility action (lefthand side), it appears we may have seen a peak in near-term volatility last week. I would expect to se some volatility mean reversion on Monday ( TVC:VIX and CBOE:VVIX -VIX may open higher). If the volatility is absorbed by buyers (price is relatively flat or volatility is quickly absorbed by buyers), I think dealers will sell volatility (puts) and buy futures to raise the price of AMEX:SPY . On the other hand, when more bearish factors (as described above) are considered, I can’t help but wonder when looking at the CME_MINI:ES1! chart if futures are forming a top. I would not have a problem playing the bull side if volatility activity suggests dealers are short puts, however if it shows indecision or short call positioning it may be best to sit out or wait for confirmation. -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- Conclusion: Put simply - I am cautiously bullish on stocks. I think the gold volatility is still mostly implied, so it will take a few more sessions before we find out if it will be realized or provide liquidity for more Gold buying. The extreme put buying has me fairly confident that the gold rally will stall out or pull back from around the 4,200 level. Aside from news-related volatility, the only major threat I’m seeing to stocks is that institutions may start to rotate out of tech mega caps AMEX:XLK , communications AMEX:XLC , and consumer discretionary AMEX:XLY into safer sectors like consumer staples AMEX:XLP and healthcare AMEX:XLV . This can be tracked intraday so I will be watching it this week for early clues. $XLK/XLP will be an important gauge to watch, as well as $NQ1!/YM1! and $SPY/RSP for confirmation. I’m not too worried about treasuries either. The lack of data will likely keep yields close to the average, and as I’ve said before, if the TVC:US10Y -US03MY curve inverts because 10Y declines while 3M is flat, it’s the less concerning way it could occur. Corporate bond spreads will be important to watch for a potential risk-off continuation, however that data will only be available once per day. Most importantly, if volatility seems to have peaked (at least in the short term) it will solidify the bullish case. As I hope I’ve explained, I think the market is in a confused and defensive state, even if the situation doesn’t necessarily call for it. US economic data is still on hold so dealers are firmly in control of the narrative. Since dealers prefer to be short gamma on puts, that is the only reason why my bias is slightly bullish. On the contrary, if there is a sudden rush into puts that creates a significant Implied/Historical volatility imbalance, I will not hesitate to take the short side.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ap769
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/20/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25099.25 - PR Low: 25039.75 - NZ Spread: 133.0 No key scheduled economic events Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM) - Session Open ATR: 391.21 - Volume: 43K - Open Int: 283K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -1.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Short
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/17/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 24858.50 - PR Low: 24740.25 - NZ Spread: 263.5 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls - Average Hourly Earnings - Unemployment Rate Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM) - Session Open ATR: 391.21 - Volume: 43K - Open Int: 283K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Short
by mv3trader5
GBPUSD – Experiencing a Painful Short Tem SqueezeIt has been a difficult past 7 days for GBPUSD traders. First, prices broke below 1.3320 last Thursday, a level that had held on previous sell offs since the start of September and it looked as though sentiment had turned down, backed up by concerns surrounding the sustainability of UK government debt, flatlining growth to start Q3 and uncertainty regarding the tough decisions the UK Chancellor may have to make regarding spending cuts and/or tax increases in her much anticipated Autumn budget (November 26th). This was all at a time when the US dollar (USD) faced a resurgence after stale underperforming short positions were cut back. The GBPUSD sell off looked to be further cemented on Tuesday by UK employment data which showed private sector wage growth to be slowing faster than expected, leading markets to price in a greater probability of Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts in early 2026, a move which sent GBPUSD prices down to a 3-month low at 1.3248 on Tuesday. All good for the shorts so far! At this stage all looked set for the drop to accelerate to even lower levels but then suddenly in stepped Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who in a speech on Tuesday evening indicated increased policymaker concerns regarding a slowdown in the US labour market, which reinvigorated investor hopes that the US central bank could be ready to cut interest rates again 25bps (0.25%) at their next meeting on October 29th. This sent the dollar lower, which in turn saw GBPUSD move all the way back up to a potential short-term resistance at 1.3420 (more on this in technical update below) this morning as traders were forced to cut weak short positions, or face the possibility of an extended squeeze. Looking forward, the environment into the weekend may remain challenging, with traders awaiting the outcome of important inflation data in the UK next Wednesday (CPI, 0700 BST Oct 22nd) and the US on Friday (CPI, 1330 BST Oct 24th), and this could mean the technical outlook may take on more significance. Technical Update: Focus on Long Term Support Range Since mid-April 2025, GBPUSD has traded within a broad, choppy sideways price range. Upside attempts have stalled at 1.3789, the July 1st failure high, while the downside has been contained by a support range marked by 1.3118, the 61.8% retracement of the April 7th to July 1st rally and 1.3140, the low from both May 12th and August 1st. In this type of environment it can be helpful to identify and monitor potential important support and resistance levels that may influence where GBPUSD price activity could move next. Possible Resistance Levels: While a closing break above 1.3789, the July 1st high may be needed to suggest a breakout from the current broader range, breaks of shorter-term resistance levels if seen, could still trigger a phase of price strength. These interim levels may warrant attention in the sessions ahead. Attempts to push higher in late September and early October were capped by the falling Bollinger mid-average, which stands at 1.3420, and is currently being tested at the time of writing (0700 BST). With the average still declining, this level may now act as an initial resistance again. Following the price recovery so far this week, closing breaks above 1.3420, while not an outright positive, could lead to renewed attempts at price strength and see tests of potential resistance at 1.3527, the October extreme, even 1.3726, the September 17th failure high. That said, if as suspected, GBPUSD remains within a broad sideways range, it might well take a closing break above the 1.3789 high to suggest more sustained upside attempts. Potential Support Levels: With a rally emerging from Tuesday’s 1.3248 low, this level may now act as an initial support in the near term. If closing breaks below 1.3248 were to emerge in upcoming sessions, this could renew pressure on the 1.3118/40 support band, the key zone that has repeatedly contained prior declines within the broader sideways range. Monitoring the closing defence of 1.3118/40 might prove to be important moving into next week. Should 1.3118/40 give way on a closing basis, it may lead to increasing downside momentum, with some traders then viewing the 1.2708 April 7th low as the next potential main support level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/16/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 24992.25 - PR Low: 24936.50 - NZ Spread: 124.75 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims - Retail Sales (Core|MoM) - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - PPI AMP margins temp raised for pre-RTH expected economic volatility Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM) - Session Open ATR: 379.49 - Volume: 30K - Open Int: 281K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -1.8% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Short
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/15/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 24816.25 - PR Low: 24750.50 - NZ Spread: 147.0 CPI rescheduled to Friday per AMP Futures update Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Session Open ATR: 375.60 - Volume: 30K - Open Int: 279K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by mv3trader5
Silver – Record Highs and Increased Volatility to Contend WithSilver has literally jumped to the forefront of commodity market traders’ screens in October as it has soared to record highs, followed by an increased period of volatility, before then moving to even higher levels again this morning. The main reasons seem to be Silver’s attraction as an alternative to Gold as a safe haven/debasement asset in this current period of uncertainty. Traders are concerned about increased trade tensions, a prolonged US government shutdown, weaker global growth, excessive levels of government debt, inflation, a war in Ukraine and what the Federal Reserve may do next regarding interest rates. It is quite an extensive list! Add to this a historic physical shortage of Silver, soaring borrowing costs and reduced liquidity in a market that is much smaller than its big brother, Gold, and you have a recipe for a volatile asset that is not to be entered without strong risk management, a good understanding of the fundamentals and a serious consideration of important technical levels. Silver started the month at 46.647, dipped to a low of 45.903 on October 2nd and then hasn’t looked back, posting a series of new multi-year and then record highs all the way to a peak this morning at 53.50. However, it hasn’t been plain sailing, with an average 5% trading range over the last three days alone. An important risk factor to consider. Looking forward across this week, Silver prices could be influenced by the next headlines outlining where the direction of trade tensions between the US and China are moving, including updates on whether President’s Trump and Xi will meet later this month as had been originally planned. Their first meeting for 6 years. Progress updates on the stalemate between Democrats and Republicans that has forced the US government into a 2 week shutdown may also be relevant, alongside any easing in the current supply issues in the physical Silver market. Technical Update: The Push Higher Continues: It should always be remembered that traditional overbought signals are sometimes ignored while trending and sentiment measures remain strong. It’s a reminder that indicators like RSI or stochastics may flash caution, but price can continue to move higher if broader conditions support it. Silver has defied overbought readings of late with a near-uninterrupted rally since the August lows. Despite repeated calls from some for a correction, price action has remained resilient, underscoring how strong trend and sentiment can override traditional ‘overbought’ conditions. So, what are the tools that might be used to gauge the trending and sentiment condition of Silver’s recent moves? From a sentiment standpoint, the chart above shows a bias toward larger, more frequent green positive candles, indicating consistent buying interest. Traders appear willing to pay higher prices despite the extended rally, which reflects positive sentiment. This pattern suggests confidence in the trend, with dips being viewed as opportunities rather than warnings. From a trending perspective, Bollinger Bands have shown price remains above the rising mid-average, frequently touching the upper band, while the bands themselves are widening. This combination reflects upward momentum and positive price volatility, maintaining a constructive backdrop. Silver’s current setup might suggest attempts at further price strength, but it’s no guarantee of continuation. Positive candles and price action above the rising mid-average, alongside widening Bollinger Bands may point to momentum behind the current move, but traders must also stay alert, watching candlestick signals and Bollinger band activity to assess the current trends sustainability. This backdrop can of course shift quickly, so tracking key support and resistance levels is also vital to help spot possible emerging directional themes. Possible Resistance Levels: . The 53.771 level, marking the 438.2% Fibonacci extension, may now act as a key resistance point. So far, Tuesday’s push into new highs has stayed below this level on a closing basis, suggesting it might slow further upside and potentially ease the prevailing bullish trend and sentiment. Monitoring how this 53.771 resistance level is defended on a closing basis may prove important this week. A sustained break above it could result in further attempts at upside toward 54.496, the 461.8% extension, even potentially 55.738, a level equal to the 500% extension. Possible Support Levels: Throughout the August to October advance, pullbacks have been shallow, typically lasting just one or two sessions, before buyers reasserted control. This pattern currently suggests that near-term weakness may continue to prove limited. To suggest potential of a possible shift in trend, closing breaks below support levels would likely be required, marking a possible transition from short-term dips to the potential of a corrective phase in price. The first support may be at 50.522, which is the 38.2% retracement. A close below this level could suggest a deeper correction risk, shifting trader focus toward 48.722, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and potentially even 46.703, which is equal to the rising Bollinger mid-average. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:XAGUSD
by Pepperstone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/14/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 24931.50 - PR Low: 24897.00 - NZ Spread: 77.0 Key scheduled economic events: 12:20 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Session Open ATR: 370.72 - Volume: 45K - Open Int: 277K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Short
by mv3trader5
US 500 Index – Limited Correction Or Sentiment Reversal?With all the talk in the financial press last week of a potential AI bubble, soaring volatility in the precious metals market, and an on-going US government shutdown, perhaps it was understandable that traders were a little on edge going into Friday. So, when President Trump’s new threats of 100% tariffs on China were posted on social media late in the afternoon the reaction was a big downside correction, which saw the US 500 drop around 3.6% from its all-time highs of 6769 seen just a day earlier to a low of 6508. Since then, comments from President Trump and Vice President Vance over the weekend regarding China have seemed to be more conciliatory in tone, signalling an openness to get back to the negotiating table and hammer out a deal in some form. This has seen all markets breath a small sigh of relief and led the US 500 to open higher, currently trading up 2.2% around 6650 (0800 BST). However, whether this positivity continues may depend on multiple factors, including the technical outlook (more on this below). While trader sensitivity to the next round of comments from the US and Chinese administrations regarding the on-going trade tensions could remain high, they may also be keen to receive the latest Q3 earnings from the major US banks, with JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reporting on Tuesday (before the open), then Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reporting on Wednesday (before the open). While the focus may be on assessing actual performance against expectations, it could also be important to hear the outlook for future revenue, the direction of US economic growth and the size of bad debt provisions. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also speaks on Tuesday at 1720 BST and with the US government shutdown delaying the release of the most recent inflation updates (CPI/PPI) which were due this week until later in October, any comments he makes regarding the inflation outlook or the potential for an October Fed rate cut could take on extra significance. Technical Update: Limited Correction or Sentiment Reversal? Headline-driven price sell-offs like the one experienced on Friday (Oct 10th) are unpredictable, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management. If you're long of an asset during such volatility, having well-placed stop-losses is crucial to limit downside exposure, especially when liquidity starts to reduce, as it likely did ahead of today’s US holiday. These events serve as a reminder that protecting your trading capital is just as important as delivering profitable outcomes. After such a sharp sell-off, the question is whether it marks a brief, exaggerated correction within a broader uptrend or signals a deeper negative sentiment shift that could lead to further price weakness. The answer may well depend on how the price of the US 500 reacts in the upcoming sessions. Whether support levels hold, momentum stabilises, and buyers return or whether the price decline deepens and the next support levels give way. The jury may still be out on this, but as the chart above shows, judging the potential key support and resistance levels could help gauge the next directional risks. A closing break of either side may offer signals to the next phase of price activity. If the Sell-Off Reflects a Negative Sentiment Shift: Friday’s sharp decline may have already breached some initial support levels, raising the risk of a more extended phase of price weakness. The daily Bollinger mid-average (currently 6668) is typically viewed by traders as a support level in an uptrend and this level was broken on a closing basis within Friday’s decline. Despite this morning’s rally, 6668 could now act as a resistance, and if it remains intact, could keep upside activity in check for now. While 6668 resistance holds on a closing basis, this morning’s recovery may be viewed by some as a reactionary bounce following Friday’s sharp decline, leaving possibilities of renewed selling pressure later in the week. If this proves to be the case, closing breaks below potential support at 6550, a level which is equal to half the rebound from Friday’s low, might lead to renewed downside pressure. This may open tests of 6490, the 50% retracement of the August 1st to October 9th rally, with a closing break below this level, suggesting scope for moves toward 6224 which is the 61.8% retracement. If the Sell-Off Proves to be a Limited Correction: While Friday’s decline was sharper and larger than any since the June 2025 lows, traders may now be watching whether current price strength can close back above the 6668 Bollinger mid-average. While not a guarantee of renewed price strength, past declines since June 23rd 2025, have seen US 500 prices recover to close back above this line, leading to resumed attempts at upside strength. A closing break back above 6668 may once again open attempts to push to higher levels. If confirmed, a break above resistance at 6668 may lead to further upside back toward 6769, which is the October 9th all-time high. Should this level give way, further strength may extend toward 6866, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension of last week’s sharp decline. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
HOW-TO: Forecast Next-Bar Odds with Markov ProbCast🎯 Goal In 5 minutes, you’ll add Markov ProbCast to a chart, calibrate the “big-move” threshold θ for your instrument/timeframe, and learn how to read the next-bar probabilities and regime signals (🟩 Calm | 🟧 Neutral | 🟥 Volatile). 🧩 Add & basic setup Open any chart and timeframe you trade. Add Markov ProbCast — P(next-bar) Forecast Panel from the Public Library (search “Markov ProbCast”). Inputs (recommended starting point): • Returns: Log • Include Volume (z-score): On (Lookback = 60) • Include Range (HL/PrevClose): On • Rolling window N (transitions): 90 • θ as percent: start at 0.5% (we’ll calibrate next) • Freeze forecast at last close: On (stable readings) • Display: leave plots/partition/samples On 📏 Calibrate θ (2-minute method) Pick θ so the “>+θ” bucket truly flags meaningful bars for your market & timeframe. Try: • If intraday majors / large caps: θ ≈ 0.2%–0.6% on 1–5m; 0.3%–0.8% on 15–60m. • If high-vol crypto / small caps: θ ≈ 0.5%–1.5% on 1–5m; 0.8%–2.0% on 15–60m. Then watch the Partition row for a day: if the “>+θ” bucket is almost never triggered, lower θ a bit; if it’s firing constantly, raise θ. Aim so “>+θ” captures move sizes you actually care about. 📖 Read the panel (what the numbers mean) • P(next r > 0) : Directional tilt for the very next candle. • P(next r > +θ) : Odds of a “big” upside move beyond your θ. • P(next r < −θ) : Odds of a “big” downside move. • Partition (>+θ | 0..+θ | −θ..0 | <−θ): Four buckets that ≈ sum to 100%. • Next Regime Probs : Chance the market flips to 🟩 Calm / 🟧 Neutral / 🟥 Volatile next bar. • Samples : How many historical next-bar examples fed each next-state estimate (confidence cue). Note: Heavy calculations update on confirmed bars; with “Freeze” on, values won’t flicker intrabar. 📚 Two practical playbooks Breakout prep • Watch P(next r > +θ) trending up and staying elevated (e.g., > 25–35%). • A rising Next Regime: Volatile probability supports expansion context. • Combine with your trigger (structure break, session open, liquidity sweep). Mean-reversion defense • If already long and P(next r < −θ) lifts while Volatile odds rise, consider trimming size, widening stops, or waiting for a better setup. • Mirror the logic for shorts when P(next r > +θ) lifts. ⚙️ Tuning & tips • N=90 balances adaptivity and stability. For very fast regimes, try 60; for slower instruments, 120. • Keep Freeze at close on for cleaner alerts/decisions. • If Samples are small and values look jumpy, give it time (more bars) or increase N slightly. 🧠 Why this works (the math, briefly) We learn a 3-state regime and its transition matrix A (A = P(Sₜ₊₁=j | Sₜ=i)), estimate next-bar event odds conditioned on the next state (e.g., q_gt(j)=P(rₜ₊₁>+θ | Sₜ₊₁=j)), then forecast by mixing: P(event) = Σⱼ A · q(event | next=j). Laplace/Beta smoothing, per-state sample gating, and unconditional fallbacks keep estimates robust. ❓FAQ • Why do probabilities change across instruments/timeframes? Different volatility structure → different transitions and conditional odds. • Why do I sometimes see “…” or NA? Not enough recent samples for a next-state; the tool falls back until data accumulate. • Can I use it standalone? It’s a context/forecast panel—pair it with your entry/exit rules and risk management. 📣 Want more? If you’d like an edition with alerts , σ-based θ, quantile regime cutoffs, and a compact ribbon—or a full strategy that uses these probabilities for entries, filters, and sizing—please Like this post and comment “Pro” or “Strategy”. Your feedback decides what we release next.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Algorific
October 13 - October 17 2025I decided to go through and consolidate my charts this week to make for easier decision making. Friday’s sell off was a sign of weakness in a market that was already showing strain. While the drop on resumed trade war threats was swift, the rest of the market had a muted response. Heading into this week, we should see another big move and I will try to be open to trading either side depending on how this develops. 1. Macro Gold is still in its uptrend and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. I don’t have it charted here, but Gold’s volatility index CBOE:GVZ spiked during Friday’s session, however buyers seemed to be absorbing the volatility since it still closed up over 1%. Gold has already made a new ATH today and I do not expect to see the trend change this week. The dollar TVC:DXY seems to be near the top of its deviation from the flat EMA. I think we will see the dollar move lower which could boost Gold, Stocks, or both. Next, we saw TVC:US03MY remain relatively flat during Friday’s sell off while TVC:US10Y moved sharply lower during the session, making the TVC:US10Y -US03MY spread very tight once again. Since real yields are still edging up and the 3M bond stayed flat during the panic, that leads me to believe the bond market volatility was contained and may not be indicative of a true risk-off reaction. One reason why US Treasuries will continue to catch a bid is that as forward inflation expectations continue to slide (bottom left chart), the real return is still attractive compared to bonds from other major countries. We’ll see if the renewed trade sparring will change the forward inflation exceptions trend since the data from TIPS is delayed, however for now I’ll continue to base my perception on what I’m currently seeing on the chart. Lastly, Oil is continuing to see an average decline. Hopefully middle eastern peace efforts are successful, which could keep the price subdued. On the bottom chart I have combined the average of MCX:COPPER1! and Corn CBOT:ZC1! into a single line compared to TVC:DXY , which aims to show real demand (and/or inflation) pressure against the Dollar’s relative strength. Here we can see commodities took a hit on Friday but the trend is still very strong to the upside. Since forward inflation expectations are down and the dollar is flat, this may be pointing to the presence of real demand, which should be bullish for equities. 2. Risk Even when looking at the past six months on a line chart, the pullback, Friday’s drop was significant. As I mentioned last week, there are important risk-health items to watch for here. I’m now just charting the High Yield OAS - Investment Grade OAS spread, which was already starting to move up before Friday’s sell off. This data is only reported once per day for the previous session, so the impact on corporate bond yields is not yet known. This will be very important to pay attention to, as it could signal true aversion to risk. Next, the $ES1!/GOLD spread is declining and should continue until Gold enters a re-accumulation phase. Anyone’s guess when that will be so for now I think it’s safe to assume that Stocks will continue to underperform Gold, and if Friday’s drop was any indication of which side is in control, it serves as confirmation that stocks are sensitive to bad news. Buyers seem to be the ones getting absorbed. The third chart on the top shows that although CME_MINI:NQ1! has been outperforming CBOT_MINI:YM1! since the market bottomed, the momentum seems to be stalling out. I’ll be looking at the sectors to find any further signs of sustained rotation. 3. Sector Analysis My notes are best explained in the screenshot but my comment is that most of the decline on Friday came from AMEX:XLK (Tech sector) selling off. Other sectors performed better against SPX, with AMEX:XLP (Consumer Staples) seemingly breaking out of a decline, however as you can see from the chart on the right, it has still been the worst performer against the other indices over the past three months. One session is not enough to change the trend, however it will be important to watch for continued rotation out of tech and into other sectors. This could cause CME_MINI:NQ1! to decline against CBOT_MINI:YM1! as I suggested earlier, and would signal the market is positioning for a more sustained downturn - likely caused by disappointing growth. 4. Bias This is the chart I have tried to condense the most. I have switched to just using Line Break as my main chart for ES, which I found performed better than Renko when combined with my other indicators. On the lefthand side, I am using Session CVD but got rid of my other indicators and made a CVD Momentum indicator, which tracks the momentum of CVD rising or falling over an anchor period (1 week). I’m still using a range chart calculation for this chart, currently set to 20R. On the right, I am using what I’ll call my Volatility Dashboard, however it does not start producing a useful signal until premarket. Based on Volatility, it can be said with certainty that dealers went long on puts right before the sell-off began. From a technical standpoint, the price was in a rising wedge and dumped after it made a higher high that did not reach the upper trend line. Rising channels are generally bullish, however the extent of Friday’s free fall could mean that even if the price quickly recovers, it may be forming a top similar to what we saw last December. This is why risk indicators like corporate bond spreads, sector performance, and changes to the macro structure will be important to monitor over the coming days. — Conclusion For this week, all I can say with certainty is that I think there will be some good opportunities. Here is what I believe can be safely assessed from this analysis: 1. Stocks remain under pressure, however “smart money” will require more time to rotate out of tech, leading to repeated retests of the top of the range. 2. Tailwinds for stocks are potential real demand in agriculture and industrial material that is not impacting the market’s forward inflation expectation. 3. “Smart Money” will sell volatility (puts) into pullbacks if the price is set to be driven higher, or will do the opposite, buying volatility (puts) and selling calls on low volume rips This is why I will be looking for more confirmation before taking a side, as the market’s goal now is to clear out liquidity. When it comes to the larger trend, I tend to think that stocks do not seem to be showing strength over the larger macro structure, however that does not necessarily dictate that the index will come down another 8%. Instead, I think at the very least we will stay in a flat range for the time being. I do not think the market is ready to go on a bull run, nor do I think the environment is showing a risk-off bias that is strong enough to warrant stocks going straight down. If we meet resistance near the top of the range, I’ll look at volatility positioning and CVD for the signal to go short. Conversely, if we make a higher low I will go long on calls to the top of the range. Good luck to all and thanks for reading!
SP:SPX
by ap769
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/13/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 24752.25 - PR Low: 24541.75 - NZ Spread: 470.25 No key scheduled economic events +0.4% weekend gap up retracing 50% of Friday's 892 point range Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Session Open ATR: 370.30 - Volume: 75K - Open Int: 284K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.3% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025
by mv3trader5
BTCUSDT BULLISH -Was shocked when the market crashed; but its a good thing for me because the market completed a move that i thought that it would take a week or weeks. -After the crash i looked for a neqw zone that i can enter as i saw that i missed the opportunity to enter when it touched the zone that i need. -Im looking for a long position as ive seen a confirmation & im waiting for the push. -Im looking for the market to go back to the entry zone & then push up. -Lets see how this goes.
Long
by TheeAnomaliKhai
#BITCOIN ANALYSIS I have been warning you for the last 45 days #BITCOIN ANALYSIS I have been warning you for the last 45 days that a big dump was coming and now it’s playing out exactly. Bitcoin has already dumped around $20K and is now trading near 112K, right at the major resistance zone that has triggered every big correction since 2018. A small bounce to 115K–116K is possible, but after that I expect another leg down toward 100K, and potentially lower to 90K. I’m still holding my 50% short position. If anything changes or I close my position, I’ll update you. Remember I mentioned earlier that if BTC went back to 125K–128K, I would add more shorts and that plan hasn’t changed. Till Monday, I expect some volatility, but Monday’s price action will give a clearer direction. 🔸 Weekly: BTC touched the long-term trendline again → clear rejection happened. 👉 Until we get a weekly close above 125K, the risk of a major pullback stays high. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 🔸 Daily: Price is inside the 110K–125K supply zone. Structure is weak. If price breaks and resists below 110K, then 100K is the next target. 📊 My Trade: ✅ First target 105K hit Holding 50% shorts, expecting a bounce to 115K, then lower. 📌 Downside Targets: 105K ✅ → 100K → 95K → 90K
Short
by CryptoSkullSignal
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/10/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25321.50 - PR Low: 25286.50 - NZ Spread: 78.5 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls - Average Hourly Earnings - Unemployment Rate Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM) - Session Open ATR: 264.53 - Volume: 19K - Open Int: 287K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by mv3trader5