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Wave4

Zcash Long to $900+I've counted the Elliott waves, and I have only spotted 3 completed waves so far. That means that ZEC should experience some more correction in wave 4 before exploding up again. ZEC already completed subwaves A (12345 impulse) and B (abcde rising wedge). Wave C should start soon, and should be a downwards 12345 impulse. Of course, there is a possibility of further corrections in the form of WXY, but in that case, the corrections would be small and contained. My conservative target is $820, a 1 to 1 Extension of wave 1, and my aggressive target is $905, a 1.618 Fibonacci Extension of wave 1. I believe that ZEC will likely hit the 1.618 Fib Extension, because waves 1 and 3 were about the same length. According to Elliott Wave guidelines (not rules), wave 5 will often be extended.
BITFINEX:ZECUSDLong
by aoeuaoeu
1
BTG, another price surge is possibleBTG just started wave 4, and it will experience corrections for the next few days (or hours) before the next surge. According to Elliott Wave guidelines, wave 5 will likely be extended when wave 1 and wave 3 are the same length. With a conservative 1.272 Fibonacci Extension, we get a target of $544. $600 is totally within the horizon. Also, the price is unlikely to go lower as wave 4 never retraces to wave 1. This gives us a low risk opportunity to load up on BTG. Note: We may or may not get a second bounce in the buy zone. That is just one possibility.
BLong
by aoeuaoeu
2
BTC Correction to 14200, then an Explosion to 17200!Wave 3 of the recent surge in Bitcoin 13.41% has been extremely strong, exceeding even the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension . However, we see a rising wedge , which is also a ending diagonal and the 5th sub-wave of wave 3. Also, the RSI is showing bearish divergence. All these factors point to a temporally correction. Remember, the price never goes up forever; there are always dips. We can use these opportunities to buy or add to our position. With a 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement , we get a target of 14160. It will likely retrace to the 0.382 because wave 2 retraced to the 0.618 level. However, that is only a guideline and still has a small chance of retracing to 0.5 or 0.618 level. Our target is a 1 to 1 Extension of wave 1, which is 17200. Nonetheless, the price will likely go much higher; 17200 is our conservative target.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by aoeuaoeu
3
Bitcoin - Next target is down at 7,611My preferred count shows that Bitcoin peaked with the test of 11,395 in wave (3) and wave (4) now is developing. Wave A decline to 9,250 and wave B, which has turned into an expanding flat correction, is expected to peak near 10,905, with an outside chance of making it to 11,227 before tuning lower in wave C. A break below minor support at 10,393 will indicate that wave C is developing. After an expanded flat correction either in wave 2 or B the following wave likely will be an extended wave and a 161.8% extension of wave A calls for a decline in wave C towards 7,611. This is also close or at the mid-line of the first pitchfork. Stay tuned for some high volatility swings in the weeks ahead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWS
5
Bitcoin - Time to be fearfulThe buying frenzy in Bitcoin, just continues to push it higher and higher. There is no time to correct properly. The rally is now close to being vertical, which isn't a good thing. I was look for this rally to may extend to 10,768 and here we are. However, the extreme buying frenzy could push Bitcoin into the 11,073 - 11,627 area, but it's time to become fearful and take a contrarian approach. Yesterday the Danish news ran a story about a mom, that had bought Bitcoin from her son's savings account. I'm not saying it's not a good investment, but that is a sign to me, to become very fearful. A break below minor support at 9,848 will indicate that wave (3) has peaked and wave (4) towards at least 6,700 is developing. As wave (2) was a deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a time-consuming and complex sideways correction in wave (4). Tighten up your stops!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWS
13
Bitcoin - The final swings of wave (3) developingBitcoin has seen a phenomenal rally in wave (3). Only a year ago it traded near 755 against the USD and now it hovers near 8,100. I'm still looking for a little more upside closer to 9,150, but the best part of the rally in wave (3) is now behind us. As wave (2) was a simple, but deep zig-zag correction, we should expected wave (4) to be a complex structure in the form of a flat or a triangle consolidation and it should be relatively shallow compared to wave (2). But a relatively shallow correction of 38.2% of wave (3), will still mean a decline close to 5,800.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EWS
Facebook - Peak expected near 187.17Facebook has seen an amazing rally since the September 2012 low at 17.55. This wave rally should be close to completion - Ideally near 187.17 for a correction in wave . As wave was a simple and deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a complex and shallow correction in wave . The ideal target for this wave correction is seen in the 114.77 - 115.93 area. The corrective structure of wave should be either a flat or a triangle consolidation. If the corrective structure proves to be a triangle, then the low will be seen early (likely in the A-wave down). Short-term a break below minor support at 168.89 will be a good indication that Facebook has peaked in wave and wave is developing. So tighten up your stops and don't fall in love with Facebook at these levels.
F
by EWS
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: How Low Can It Go?BTCUSD update: 7030 is touched as price attempts to retrace after the relentless rally. The big question: Is this the beginning of the big correction that everyone has been waiting for? Or just another shallow retrace? I will refer to Elliott Wave in order to get an idea of what is reasonable to expect. After the consolidation breakout which eventually got labeled as a Wave 4, the count for the 5th wave is pretty clear. The current retrace puts us in 4 of 5 which implies there is a chance that we get one more attempt at new highs before the BIG correction. We are now 10 days away from the fork, which makes for plenty of time for a retrace, a reversal and one more push toward 8k. As I wrote about in my previous report, there are extension overlaps in the 7900 to 8k area which makes it a convenient potential peak. So if I were shorting (to be clear I am not), I would not be too aggressive with target expectations on this leg. 6840 is the nearest support which happens to be the .382 of the recent bullish swing measured from the 5632 low. That level may offer a swing trade opportunity long if a smaller time frame reversal pattern can appear there. If that initial support breaks, the next support is the 6640 level, which is the .382 area of the bullish structure measured from the 5114 low ( previous Wave 4 low). IF price actually retests any one of these supports, and a bullish reversal formation shows up on a smaller time frame like the 1 hour, these would present attractive reward/risk opportunities. The key to this is the bullish reversal formation (like a double bottom) which provides a reference point to measure risk from. Without that, we are just bottom fishing. The mistake you want to avoid is jumping in too early. This is an easy mistake to make without any point of reference or too much focus on smaller time frames while attempting to swing trade. For me, the entry process begins with the level, and if price is not at a level that I have defined previously, then I have no reason to do anything else. Once it reaches a level then I move on to the next step which is to evaluate the chart patterns. What if price never makes it to a level and reverses sooner? That can happen, and that is not a trade that I will participate in. I am looking for opportunities that fit within my criteria for my swing trading plan. This keeps my decision making simple and helps to minimize any emotional tendencies like forcing trades because I am afraid to miss the next move up. How do we know this is not the big correction? I am anticipating that it is not because of the fork in 10 days. I believe many of the investors who missed out will see this as an opportunity to get on board the money train before it goes to 10k (which is what all the hype is telling them). That may be enough to get this market to retest the high which will complete Wave 5 of 5. After that, any correction like this and I will be expecting much lower levels. Anything can happen and I could be wrong, but that is what I am going by until the market proves otherwise, In summary, the current retrace is perfectly normal and still very shallow at the moment (relative to this market). This exact price action is why I do not buy at 7500 even though this market still has a chance to run to 8k. I am willing to take a long swing trade at the 6840 level or 6640 level if price action cooperates (and risk can be clearly defined) and hold it only for an attempt of retesting the high. Wave 4's are typically the easiest wave to forecast because 3 waves have to be in place which is the scenario at the moment. Since swing trading means a trade can go on for days, it is a tougher strategy to employ in this market because of how quickly things change. So for now I will wait to see if the market can reach my predefined levels and then evaluate the chart patterns from there. Be patient and be flexible. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
37
Feeder Cattle - Testing resistance near 159.00 The expanded flat correction in wave 4 continues to unfold as expected and should ultimately make it higher to the ideal target near 170.00. Short-term Feeder Cattle is testing solid resistance near 159.00, which might cause a consolidation, but ultimately this resistance should be broken for the expected rally higher to 170.00 to complete wave C of 4 and turn prices lower in wave 5 to below 118.90. Only an unexpected break back below support at 151.75 will indicate that the correction in wave 4 completed early and wave 5 is developing.
QLong
by EWS
BTCUSD Update: Very Important LevelBITFINEX:BTCUSD hit our first top projection at 6200 level, but we still see room for a new high, so we have to be very careful arround those levels! We believe that Bitcoin is in minor three wave correction of red wave (IV) with strong support arround 5000-5200 level and 38,2% Fibo. retracement. Keep in mind that 4th waves can be very complex, for example: flat corrections, triangle patterns or even more complex corrections. If Bitcoin goes straight to new highs, be aware of 5th wave, our second top projection arround 6400. But if Bitcoin from any reason declines and breaks lower our strong support at 5000, then we could face even bigger and much sharper decline back to arround 3000, where we see next potential support! Have a nice weekend!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Larger Correction Likely.BTCUSD update: Zooming out and looking at the bigger picture always provides important clues as to what price is more likely to do in the near future. In this analysis I am reevaluating the Elliott Wave count in light of the most recent support and resistance levels. The next wave that is most likely to unfold is a bearish one and can take this market back into the mid 4000s before reaching for new highs. As I have written about before, I always perform Elliott Wave analysis but I do not always write about it. The reason is simple: I do not want to confuse my readers, so when information is clear and makes the most sense, that is what I write about. Whether that is talking about Fibonacci levels, wave counts or other relevant levels chosen by the market. Right now in this market, the wave count is worth highlighting. The reason is this: the market just wowed the world with a breakout above 6k. It went slightly higher and then pulled back to a minor support. Enthusiastic buyers who want in will see this as an opportunity not to miss the BTC train to 7k or whatever new number the hypsters are hyping about and it is a trap. I will refer to Elliott Wave to further explain. Going back to earlier this year and recounting the waves puts the current rise into much better perspective. And as you can see on the chart, the sell off that occurred in the previous month was the Wave 4 that I was expecting to unfold further at the time. The market proved me wrong and with the new upleg in place, there is a clear count with a recent high completing 5 subwaves of Wave 3 of a larger 5. When 5 waves complete, often a correction follows, and the coming correction in my opinion is a Wave 4 retrace that can take price back to significantly lower levels. The first support is the .382 of the recent bullish structure which is the 5159 area. A break below that, and price can possibly retest the 4526 to 4073 support zone which is the .618 of the recent bullish structure. Corrections typically unfold in 3 waves, A is the first retrace, B which can actually take this market to a slightly new high, and then the infamous C Wave which is often the emotional sell off that scares everyone out of the market. The good news is after this Wave 4 completes. then there is the expectation of Wave 5 of 5 which can possibly take this market into the 6500 area (which happens to be the 2.618 extension measured from the low of this wave). Also Wave 4's are often the most predictable wave because 3 waves need to be in place first (which they are). The upcoming forks may serve as an appropriate catalyst to help Wave 4 unfold, also remember a bearish surprise can come out of no where and trigger the persistent selling as well. In summary, this wave count offers a possible road map as to how price is more likely to unfold in the coming week(s). How is this helpful? Well it tells me not to take any longer term positions at these levels for one, and to keep my profit expectations low if any long setups do occur on smaller time frames. Remember this is just an idea based on the structure that the market is presenting at the moment. I will be using this as a reference to be prepared for the Wave 4 low and reversal. I will also be watching for bearish confirmations along the way and if they don't occur, then I know this wave count carries less weight. And just to be clear, I am not shorting this market, just waiting for the next buying opportunity. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
30
Bitcoin - A nice little S/H/S top confirms wave E is developing Wave D peaked nice near the expected resistance-area and now a nice little S/H/S top confirms that wave E is developing. The ideal target for this E-wave is seen at 3,655, but be aware that triangle E-waves can be sub-normal and complete the triangle consolidation prematurely. Once this wave 4 triangle is complete a strong rally is expected in wave 5. A Bitcoin seems to have a tendency to extend its fifth wave rallies, that could call for a rally all the way to 9,150, before topping.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWS
2
Sugar - Triangle consolidation in wave 4 completeIn my September 28 update, I called for a final zig-zag rally in wave e to complete the triangle consolidation in wave 4. This e wave has developed as expected and wave 4 is now complete. The final impulsive decline in wave 5 should now be seen towards at least 10.11 and more likely closer to the cluster supports in the 8.39 - 8.77 area from where a new rally towards 14.45 is expected. Resistance at 14.58 should continue to cap the upside for a break below the triangle support-line near 13.05 for the final impulsive decline in wave 5.
SShort
by EWS
DJI - Correcting in wave 4/A relentless rise only interrupted by small correction has been the name of the game since November last year. I think we have seen the peak of wave 3/ at 22,419.52 and a more substantial correction is about to unfold in wave 4/. I'm looking for a correction into the price range of wave iv of one lessor degree between 20,371 - 21,153. This should set the stage for the final rally higher in wave 5/ to complete the long-term rally from March 2009. As we enter the final rally, caution is advised. As wave 2/ a double combination, I will be looking for a triangle consolidation in wave 4. This will mean the low of wave 4/ should be seen early in the correction.
DJ:DJI
by EWS
11
Bitcoin - Target area for wave D seen between 4,390 - 4,425My preferred count remains that a triangle is unfolding as wave 4. If this count is correct, then the ongoing wave D rally should complete in the 4,390 - 4,225 area for a final zig-zag or series of zig-zags decline(s) in wave E towards 3,655 to complete the triangle consolidation and wave 4 for a strong impulsive rally in wave 5. In my September 14 post. I called for wave C to complete near 3,300. It did extend below that point and bottomed at 2,972, but no matter what, this should be the lowest point of the wave 4 correction as stated then. As there seems to be a tendency for extended wave five rallies, I will be looking for an extension this time too, which could cause a rally in wave 5 all the way up to 9,150...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWS
1
Amazon - Long term countI was asked to show my long term count for Amazon.com as the top seen at 1,083 only was viewed as a wave 3 top. This means that the ongoing correction "only" is wave 4. The Elliott Wave Principle says that wave 2 and 4 should alternate in structure. As wave 2 was deep - It corrected 61.8% of wave 1 - That indicates wave 4 should relatively shallow and not correct more than 38.2% of wave 3. Wave 2 was relatively simple in its structure, indicating that wave 4 should be complex and be either a flat or a triangle construction. Once this ongoing wave 4 correction is complete, we should look for a new impulsive rally in wave 5 to complete wave III higher from 5.51.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by EWS
Amazon - S/H/S top buildingAmazon peaked in wave 3 at 1,083 and has since build a possible S/H/S top, This top-formation will be activated upon a break below the neckline support at 927 and will call for a decline to at least 770, which is the measured S/H/S top target. However, the Elliott wave count, shows wave 3 peaked at 1,083 and now is correcting lower in wave 4. As wave 2 was a simple deep correction, that corrected 61.8% of wave 1, we should expect a prolonged flat or triangle consolidation in wave 4. The 38.2% correction target of wave 3 is seen at 679. Once this wave 4 correction is complete, a new impulsive rally to above 1,083 is expected in wave 5 towards 1,757.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by EWS
2