Strategy: Downward Pressure Intensifies Strategy has continued to develop downward pressure as anticipated since our last update, bringing it closer to the targeted low of the turquoise wave 2. Our alternative—and now grayed-out—Target Zone has been breached to the downside, allowing us to remove the alternative scenario of a premature breakout to the upside. Investors who speculated on this alternative and entered within the alternative Target Zone with a stop 1% below the lower edge have likely been stopped out by now. For now, we are still allowing some room for turquoise wave 2 to move lower; however, it should find its bottom above the support at $102.40 to set the stage for wave 3 to advance further above the resistance at $674.18.
Waveanalyses
PayPal: Further Downside ExpectedPayPal initially extended its decline as anticipated, before a modest upward rebound began to emerge. Overall, bearish momentum should primarily persist, likely pushing price below the $50.18 support level and completing the broader correction of the beige wave II. However, there is also a 39% probability that beige wave alt.II has already concluded. In that scenario, the stock would currently be developing a magenta upward impulse and would be in the process of forming (or would have already formed) the low of wave alt. . Wave alt. would then bring further gains, potentially breaking through resistance at $94.97.
S&P500: Slightly higherS&P 500 futures edged slightly higher in yesterday’s session. The index appears to remain within the upward trajectory of magenta wave (5), which is expected to continue pushing higher. Once this wave reaches its peak, the larger blue wave (III) should also complete. Afterward, we anticipate a corrective phase in the form of magenta wave (A), which could put renewed pressure on the index. However, if prices reverse course and fall below the support level at 6,371, our alternative scenario will come into play. In that case, alternative wave alt.(4) would likely extend further downward, targeting a low within the corresponding alternative zone between 6,055 and 5,822 points (probability: 30%).
IBM: Breaking Out Above Key ResistanceIBM shares have been contending with stubborn resistance at $314.77 for the past two weeks. After an initial breakout attempt was firmly rejected, the stock has made three more efforts to decisively clear this level—and today, it once again surged purposefully above that mark. In the near term, we expect the high of magenta wave (3) to be established. If the alternative scenario plays out, however, a pullback into our green alternative Target Zone between $229.13 and $208.42 will be likely (probability: 29%).
AVAX Rally Keeps Bullish Outlook Intact Avalanche (AVAX) has recently posted significant gains, leaving our outlook unchanged. We continue to believe price is currently in a five-wave magenta upward move, which should soon push it above the resistance level at $36.19. Our alternative scenario also remains valid, in which AVAX could target new absolute lows below support at $8.64 (probability: 33%).
Coca-Cola: Fresh Upside MomentumAfter some recent setbacks, Coca-Cola shares have regained upward momentum. Blue wave (y) is expected to first break through resistance at $74.38, potentially pushing price into our beige Target Zone, which ranges from $76.58 to $81.51. In this area, we anticipate the completion of the same-colored impulse wave III. Once this wave is complete, a significant correction is likely to follow. For this reason, we view this range as an opportunity to establish short positions. If beige wave alt.III has already concluded, price could drop directly below $60.62 (probability: 32%).
XRP: Target Zone in sightRipple’s XRP has seen a modest rebound recently, but this hasn’t altered our outlook. We continue to expect further declines as part of a blue five-wave move down into the turquoise Target Zone ($1.03–$0.38), which is suitable for long-side entries. Within this zone, we anticipate that the low of the larger wave B in turquoise will be established. From there, we expect wave C to rally above resistance at $4.09 and complete the larger wave (Y) in magenta. We still assign a 30% probability to the scenario in which the low of wave alt.B in turquoise has already been reached.
Coinbase: Progress and DistractionCoinbase initially made progress in line with our primary scenario, moving just below the support level at $291.50 before a notable rebound to the upside. Our primary expectation is that price will soon reverse and head down toward our magenta Target Zone between $255.42 and $173.05, where we anticipate the low of magenta wave will be established. In wave , we then expect the rally to continue past resistance at $444.65, which makes the magenta zone an attractive entry point for long positions. We still see the possibility of gains above the $444.65 resistance occurring earlier than expected. In this 30% likely scenario, we would anticipate an early wave alt. top, meaning the magenta wave alt. would already be complete. In that case, our magenta Target Zone would no longer be relevant.
Ethereum: Slipped belowEthereum recently slipped back below support at $3,357 and is currently struggling to reclaim this level. In line with our primary scenario, we expect further downside below this threshold to complete magenta wave within the lower magenta Target Zone ($2,749 – $2,149). From there, a significant corrective rally is likely, targeting the high of magenta wave (B) in the upper magenta Target Zone ($5,805 – $7,326).
Polkadot: Ready to Bounce Straight Back Up?For now, we continue to expect that DOT will be sold off into our orange Target Zone between $1.66 and $0.70—which could offer attractive long entry opportunities – and complete magenta wave . However, we estimate there’s a 37% chance that the significant low is already in place and that the altcoin could break out directly above resistance at $3.45; in this scenario, our Target Zone would no longer be relevant.
S&P500: Rebound S&P 500 futures managed to stage a modest rebound in yesterday’s session and are now showing renewed upward momentum. In our primary scenario, we expect magenta wave (5) to continue climbing and to ultimately mark a final high that completes the larger blue wave (III). Afterward, we anticipate a corrective phase via magenta wave (A), which should pull the index toward support at 6,371 points. However, if prices drop directly below the 6,371 points support, our alternative scenario will come into play. In that case, the alternative wave alt.(4) would likely extend further downward, finding its low within the magenta alternative Target Zone between 6,055 and 5,822 points.
Palo Alto Networks: Pullback Follows New All-Time HighPalo Alto initially climbed to a new all-time high, but the upward momentum soon faded, leading to a notable pullback. However, we expect the stock to recover soon and, as part of the magenta wave (3), break through resistance at $232.29. The following waves (4) and (5) are also projected to develop above this level, further fueling the ongoing upward trend. That said, we still see a 37% chance that PANW will instead complete (or has recently completed) turquoise wave alt.B below the $232.29 mark. In that scenario, wave alt.C could trigger sell-offs to a new low for magenta wave alt.(2) , though support at $139.18 should remain intact.
Nvidia: Acceleration Toward New Highs Nvidia gained strong upward momentum shortly after our last update, surging past the $196.45 mark, which had previously served as resistance. As a result, our prior short-term alternative scenario was triggered, and we have now adjusted the chart accordingly (with minor modifications). We now view the green wave as complete and believe that the joint top of green wave and beige wave III, as well as the low of wave IV, have already been established. The Target Zone we had initially set for the wave- low has therefore been removed. In our updated short-term alternative scenario, we still see a 30% probability of a new low for beige wave alt.IV below the $176.21 support level. In this case, however, price would likely rebound above the lower $145.50 level.
eBay: Confirming Wave [ii] Top Right on ScheduleeBay rallied once again to test resistance at $101.15, but quickly reversed with sharp sell-offs, confirming the top of magenta wave in a timely manner. Since then, the stock has moved as anticipated below the $86.36 level and now appears poised for further declines as part of wave . The subsequent wave- corrective move higher should remain capped below $86.36, allowing wave to complete turquoise wave 1 at a lower level—though still above $55.96.
Booking: Persistent Counter PressureBooking has continued to face persistent counter pressure to the upside, which resulted in only limited downward movement. We still primarily expect that, within the current magenta downward impulse, price will move closer to—and eventually fall below—the support level at $4,093. However, if stronger upward momentum emerges and pushes price above the $6,101 resistance, we will then have to consider the stock as remaining in a broader uptrend, with the potential for a new high in blue wave alt.(I) (probability: 37%).
NZDUSD: Do not miss this buyFor FX:NZDUSD market broke the low and now it is ready to push up, we are still expecting this to go up even after breaking the last low. Any buy setup we get at We Trade Waves we will go for it.
Always remember WTW 4 Golder Rules:
1) Do not jump in
2) Do not over risk/trade
3) Do not trade without Stop Loss
4) Never ever add to a losing position!
Trade with care
We Trade Waves
WTW Team
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Microsoft: Wave X Top Confirmed! As primarily anticipated, Microsoft shares recently reached the high of turquoise wave X just below resistance at $562.17 before quickly reversing lower. This decline, part of the same-colored wave Y, is likely to bottom within our magenta long Target Zone between $477.87 and $451.84, where we also expect the low of magenta wave (4). In our view, this range presents attractive opportunities for long positions, as we anticipate a renewed upward move during magenta wave (5) to follow. This rally should push price above the $562.17 resistance and complete the larger blue wave (I). Alternatively, we see a scenario in which the high at $562.17 marked only the end of beige wave alt.III (probability: 36%). In this case, a drop below the $392.97 support would be expected to form the low of wave alt.IV.
S&P500: Rising?S&P 500 futures edged slightly lower in yesterday’s session but are expected to remain within the upward trajectory of magenta wave (5), which, under our primary scenario, is likely to continue moving higher. This advance would also complete the larger blue wave (III). Afterward, we anticipate a corrective phase in magenta wave (A), which should put renewed pressure on the index. At the same time, we are monitoring our alternative scenario, which suggests that magenta wave alt.(3) has not yet concluded. If prices drop below the support level at 6,371 points, this scenario will come into play. In that case, wave alt.(4) would likely extend further downward, reaching its low within the magenta alternative Target Zone between 6,055 and 5,822 points (probability: 30%).
Texas Instruments: Extending DeclinesDespite some interim countermoves, Texas Instruments continued to see further sell-offs, advancing our primary scenario. Currently, we still see additional downside potential in magenta wave (3) before expecting a temporary rebound in wave (4). With wave (5), TXN is likely to dip into our beige Target Zone between $130.04 and $107.75, completing the broader correction of beige wave IV. There remains a 30% chance that a new (corrective) high in green wave alt. could still materialize, delaying the end of the correction. In this scenario, price would first move above resistance at $221.79 before reversing at the higher $240.67 level.
Honeywell: Upward?The previously defined Target Zone was clearly breached to the upside, so we have now deactivated and grayed out that zone. The stock is currently in a downward move, which we interpret as a corrective pullback within green wave . We expect this move to conclude above the resistance level at $250.20. However, if price continues to fall and drops below support at $168.99, our alternative scenario will be triggered. In that case, green wave alt. would already be complete, and price would be in green wave alt. (probability: 33%).
Take-Two: Momentum Fades, but Recovery ExpectedTake-Two’s upward momentum has faded recently, leading to a noticeable pullback. However, we expect the stock to rebound soon and resume the corrective advance of beige wave b, moving closer to resistance at $292.66. At that point, the stock is likely to reverse course and begin a green downward impulse, which should ultimately finalize the correction of blue wave (II). We have identified a blue Target Zone between $107.47 and $46 for this significant bottom.
SUI: SlippedSUI recently faced renewed pressure but is expected to recover soon. The magenta wave is likely to extend slightly further toward resistance at $4.57, where we anticipate this wave will peak. Afterward, a short-term correction in wave is likely before wave should drive price sustainably above the $4.57 level. A lower bottom would only become likely if support at $0.55 is breached. In that scenario, an alternative wave alt.B in turquoise would come into play, which we currently estimate has a 37% probability.






















