Gold buy1. Trade Setup Overview
Entry: Around 3645.53
Stop Loss: 3635.54 (approx. 10 points below entry)
Take profit 1:3655
Take Profit2: 3669.77
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.05
Position Size: 22 contracts
P&L Targets:
Risk: ~11.2 (0.31%)
Reward: ~23.0 (0.63%)
This is a long (buy) trade setup with favorable risk/reward above 2:1.
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2. Technical Levels
Immediate Resistance (Target Zone): 3669.7 – this aligns with a recent swing high and liquidity cluster.
Immediate Support: 3635.5 – stop placement just below local structure support.
Mid Support: 3641.2 zone – a demand level (highlighted with green boxes / FVG-BPR).
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3. Market Structure
Price is consolidating with higher lows forming since Sept 9, showing accumulation.
Several fair value gap (FVG) zones have been plotted, acting as liquidity magnets.
Currently, price is bouncing near support and attempting a move toward higher liquidity at
Wave Analysis
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 CPI Day: August Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM — the main macro print of the week.
🚩 ECB Decision: 8:15 AM ET — Europe’s call on rates adds global cross-asset volatility.
📉 Labor + growth mix: Jobless claims alongside CPI sharpen the Fed outlook.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ECB Rate Decision
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (CPI, Aug)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #CPI #ECB #inflation #Fed #jobs #bonds #economy
Price looks like it may take out SSL liquidity before reversingLiquidity Levels:
Major BSL around $4,460 (topside liquidity target).
BSL in the mid-zone (previous swing high).
SSL near $4,320 (downside liquidity zone).
Market Structure:
ETH had a strong impulsive move upward, followed by a correction.
Currently forming higher lows but not yet breaking the key resistance (BSL).
Price looks like it may take out SSL liquidity before reversing.
Projection (drawn on chart):
A possible dip into SSL area ($4,320 zone).
Liquidity grab below this zone.
Then a bullish reversal, targeting $4,454–$4,460 (Major BSL).
This setup basically suggests a fake-out to the downside before a strong rally to the upside.
DOGE/USDT Waiting for a Sweep of the PCL DAILYSweep of latest interim lows = scalp opportunity (shorter-term reaction).
Price failed to create new FVG off previous FVG. Failing to create new displacement out of the prior FVG is the source of the weak leg. We now need a sweep of the Prior Candle Low (PCL). This clears the liquidity sitting under the most recent leg—interim liquidity inside the structure. Sweeping this might trigger a bounce.
👉 So if you want a higher-probability setup, you wait for the sweep of the first bar that caused the FVG imbalance. That clears the true liquidity pool. you can treat it as a scalp trigger if you’re looking for smaller plays.
Key points:
FVG leg = imbalance created.
PCL sweep = liquidity grab + stop run.
After the sweep, look for rejection/market structure shift on a LOWER TIME-FRAME to confirm entry.
No sweep → no trade.
🚩 Invalidation: If the supporting FVG breaks with a clear breakaway candle, this setup is void.
CPI Bullish Fake out (Bearish Range- False Break Reversal)
I am anticipating a Bullish close on Thursday to close above these highs for a 1% rally. Then Friday to wipe the board to start the move back down to the other side of the range for the true support Long.
I will continue to look for Sells until support. This is a Bearish range at the top.
Sept 11, 2025 -XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis:
The market showed indecision yesterday — it broke below the previous day’s low but failed to close bearish.
Today’s session may stay choppy within 3620–3650, and bullish momentum looks weaker, though no clear breakdown has formed yet.
Watch the 9 PM ET close for confirmation and focus on 3635 as the short-term pivot.
📌 Summary:
Market is in a range-bound phase, trading may be tricky.
Bullish strength is fading, but a strong bearish signal is still missing.
If 3635 breaks, light short setups can be considered.
Within 3620–3650, price action is messy — stay cautious, secure profits early, and protect positions.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 3657 – Resistance
• 3650 – Resistance
• 3646 – Resistance
• 3642 – Resistance
• 3635 – Support / Pivot
• 3626 – Support
• 3620 – Support
• 3615 – Support
📈 Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 3635 → target 3630, with further downside toward 3626, 3620, 3615
BUY: If price holds above 3646 → target 3650, with further upside toward 3653, 3657, 3660
👉 If you find this helpful or traded using this plan, a like 👍 would mean a lot and keep me motivated. Thanks for the support!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is my personal view, not financial advice. Always use proper risk control.
Looking for oil long!Oil could turn very strong starting tomorrow because Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar—a key Middle Eastern hub has sharply raised geopolitical risk around vital energy routes, and while today’s market reaction was limited, traders often price in these shocks with a lag; any escalation, threat to infrastructure, or renewed headlines could spark a strong rally as the market bakes in tighter supply expectations and higher risk premiums .
SPX500 – Retest of ATH, Bullish Flag in FormationSPX500 reached a new all-time high today and has since pulled back to retest the previous ATH level. The structure remains intact, and price is shaping up into a potential bullish flag, signaling continuation higher.
Confluences:
• Oscillators showing bullish momentum
• No major trends broken
• Small pullback likely enough for a bounce toward retesting the new ATH
On the 1H chart, this lines up with a quick 0.5R setup:
• Target: 1 ATR
• Stop loss: 2 ATR
Unfortunately, I didn’t notice the post was set to private instead of public.
Here’s the private link where you can view the original setup:
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. Please do not place trades solely based on this setup.
This is where stop-loss orders of buyers may sit.Price Action
Current price: ~1.1702.
Recent strong downtrend, with consecutive bearish candles.
Market is consolidating near a short-term bottom.
2.
Key Levels
SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity): Marked just below the recent lows (~1.1690 area).
Buy-Side Liquidity: Marked higher, near 1.1765 – 1.1780, where stops of sellers and pending buy orders may be positioned.
Draw on Liquidity: Indicates that the market may first sweep liquidity before making its move.
3.
Chart Projection
The sketched arrow suggests:
Price may first dip slightly below the SSL (liquidity grab / stop hunt).
After sweeping liquidity, a bullish reversal is expected.
Target: 1.1765 – 1.1780 zone, where buy-side liquidity sits.
4.
Market Structure
Current trend: bearish, but weakening.
Idea: A liquidity sweep at the lows may trigger a reversal.
Setup: Bullish reversal opportunity after stop-hunt.
⚡ Summary: EUR/USD is in a short-term downtrend, but the chart suggests a possible liquidity grab below 1.1690, followed by a bullish rally toward 1.1765 – 1.1780.
Price is trying to build a bullish reversal.1.
Price Action
Current BTC price: around 114,000 USD.
The market shows a downtrend channel (bearish structure) that has recently been broken upward.
Price is trying to build a bullish reversal.
2.
Key Levels
Resistance Zone: Near 124,000 – 125,000 USD, highlighted at the top.
Support/Reaction Points: Multiple swing lows and highs marked with red (lows) and blue (highs) circles, showing how BTC respected the channel.
Breakout: Price has moved outside the bearish channel, hinting at a possible trend shift.
3.
Chart Projection
The dotted arrow projection suggests:
Short-term rise towards 115,000 – 117,000 USD.
Possible pullback (correction).
Continuation upwards targeting 122,000 – 124,000 USD resistance zone.
4.
Market Structure
Previous Trend: Clear descending channel (lower highs & lower lows).
Current Trend: Attempting a breakout and reversal.
Bias: Bullish in the medium term, but resistance above 124k is strong.
⚡ Summary: Bitcoin broke out of its downtrend channel and is showing signs of a bullish reversal. The chart suggests a potential move toward 117k, a pullback, and then a push higher targeting the 124k resistance zone.
XAUUSD | ATH Hit – Wave 5 Complete, ABC Correction Ahead?Gold has completed its Elliott 5th wave, reaching a new all-time high. A smaller ABC correction is now expected. While the main upside trendline is still intact, it has already been tested 3 times — giving high probability that at least a short-term break could occur. Targeting wave A’s resistance level could form a bull flag for continuation higher.
Possible correction zones:
• 3550–3580 area, where multiple supports and trendlines align
Additional confluences:
• RSI trend breaks to the downside across multiple timeframes, dipping below 50%
• Stochastics have stayed overbought for an extended period
• MACD showing a potential double-top formation, failing to reach new highs
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. Please do not place trades solely based on this setup.
ETHUSD | Reversed 0.5R ATR Setup(Unfortunately, my original post with the exact entry was hidden due to a house rule violation. This repost only shows a later entry, as I had to publish it again after the fact.)
Setup: 0.5R target | 2 ATR stop | 1 ATR take profit
Entry idea:
Multiple confluences line up for a quick trade. Price found support at a major level, broke several trendlines to the upside, and is now retesting resistance. A safe 0.5R target is in play.
Confirmations:
• RSI trend break to the upside → market showing strength
• Elliott: 1D 5-wave structure completed, followed by an ABC correction → points to continuation higher
//This setup follows my high-probability reversed approach.
I focus on consistency with 80%+ win rate instead of chasing 1:2 or 1:3 risk-reward trades.
Why?
Because a 0.5R target reduces trade time dramatically — no need to sit in positions for hours or days. Less time in trades = less stress, fewer mistakes, more consistency.//
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. Please do not place trades solely based on this setup.
BTCUSD – Post-ATH ABC Correction, Upside Push in Play(Unfortunately, my original post with the exact entry was hidden due to a house rule violation. This repost only shows a later entry, as I had to publish it again after the fact.)
After reaching its all-time high, BTCUSD formed an ABC retest on the daily, with an internal ABC correction inside the daily C-wave. This structure may trigger a new upside push to retest ATH areas.
For now, I’m only interested in a quick long setup on the 4H chart:
• Target: 1 ATR
• Stop loss: 2 ATR
Confluences supporting the setup:
• Trend breaks confirming upside momentum
• Major support levels (not drawn here, but aligned in analysis)
• Elliott wave count aligning with bullish continuation
• Oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stoch) pointing to market strengthening
This bias gives me a high-probability entry, with my 0.5R target strategy consistently delivering over 80% win rate.
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. Please do not place trades solely based on this setup.
ATH (All-Time High): Highlighted above 3,800 USD,Price Action
Current price: around 3,640 USD/oz.
Recent strong bullish rally, pushing to new highs.
Price is consolidating after the sharp upward move.
Key Levels Marked
ATH (All-Time High): Highlighted above 3,800 USD, acting as the ultimate bullish target.
BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity): Above previous highs, suggesting liquidity grab zones.
Resistance zone (~3,450 – 3,500 USD): This was previously a supply zone where price consolidated before breaking out.
Support line (trendline): Drawn upward, connecting past higher lows.
Liquidity Pool (~3,250 – 3,350 USD): An area where stop-losses and orders are likely accumulated.
SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity): Near 2,958 USD, much lower support.
Chart Annotations
Circles highlight key swing lows (support reactions).
Projection shows a possible pullback toward ~3,500 – 3,450 USD before continuing higher.
The analysis suggests a retracement is likely before resuming the bullish trend toward ATH.
Market Structure
Bullish trend intact.
Price broke resistance and is retesting zones.
Possible scenario: pullback → liquidity grab → continuation upward.
⚡ Summary: The chart shows that Gold (XAUUSD) has recently broken resistance and surged higher. A correction toward the 3,450 – 3,500 USD zone is expected before continuing its bullish momentum toward the all-time high near 3,800 USD.
The end of Bitcoin…. begins in 40 days time @ ~$160k in Oct 2025** What the next 12 months will look like **
Let’s just start with a strong provocative title to raise the blood pressure.. “The end of Bitcoin”
…. with an explosion and then a slow erosion of relevance, that’s how.
Whether it withers through regulation, succumbs to its own technological limits, or is simply eclipsed by something faster, greener, and more useful, the end of Bitcoin will be a quiet fading of a once radical idea into the background hum of history over the next 12 years.
Can already feel the calls for his head. Take a breath, unclinch your fits, consider the possibility for a moment.
For years Bitcoin stood as a monument to a digital rebellion, a currency without borders or masters promising freedom from central banks and governments alike. Yet the freedom that was marvelled on Bitcoin’s launch was equally celebrated on its loss the day the ETF was active. A currency available to all they chanted, now controlled by the few. The irony.
Diminishing returns
The bitcoin Halving cycles are a great place to start on the story of “How Bitcoin ends”. Bitcoin maximalists will themselves acknowledge this technical observation, post cycle returns are not only diminishing but on the road to disappear forever. It is the reason we've seen 2010-2012 wallets unload on the market those past 2 months. They know.
On the above 2 week chart it is fairly evident the momentum of each cycle is losing steam as the line of support rotates another hour of the clock face for every two cycles. The next halving cycle will complete at 3 o’clock with no measurable return from the 2025 cycle top. Consider that as the talking heads call for $1m+ by 2030.
The influencers and 40 days
Have you noticed influencers talk about the amazing things quarter 4 will bring? “October through December to mint millionaires!” The cringe.
At the height of every market top we see the same smoke and mirrors, “New paradigm” shift mantra. Every other day a new News article on crypto, ft.com is full of them. All red flags as the market top grows closer. Although euphoria is still to return, the time until the top is deterministic.
There’s never been a market top post halving (vertical blue lines) greater than 546 days (vertical orange lines). This value also includes the +/- 5 days price trades at the peak. The last two cycles (2017 and 2021) took 526 days to reach the peak. 2021 gave traders an additional 20 days to exit at the peak. Few accepted while the rest signed up for the 2 year bag holding challenge.
The market top is now between September 28th to October 20th, at most 40 days away from today, if you’re reading this on September 10th, 2025. Yes, perhaps this time will be different, however there’s now 3 out of 4 cycles with less than 546 days (at max) until the cycle top, and the Bitcoin bull market is approaching that value fast. Is this time really going to be different? Influencers certainly think so.
PS: Notice the monthly reduction in market peaks? 2017 = December, 2021 = November, 2025 = October!
40 days / October 20th to $160k - Seriously?
Historical halving to market peaks
2012 Halving: +9,300% to $1,150 in November 2013
2016 Halving: +2,930% to $19,700 in December 2017
2020 Halving: +702% to $69,000 in November 2021
Lower limit
*** 2024 Halving: +160% to $160k in October 2025 ***
Upper limt
*** 2024 Halving: +180% to $180k in October 2025 ***
There’s a whole host of reasons or should I say confluence for this price action forecast too numerous to go into detail. However here’s a couple of standout reasons:
Reason 1
Each new cycle’s return is roughly ~25–30% of the prior cycle’s return. This means the halving to peak return is compressing by a fairly consistent factor in each cycle, close to a “quartering” effect. For this reason the 2025 market top falls between $160k to $180k.
It would also mean the end of Bitcoin as the next cycle peak would be a macro lower high. Consider a cycle 5 (2028 halving) with ~25% of Cycle 4’s return: 25% × 170% ≈ 40–45% return from the 2028 halving to its peak.
A market correction beginning in October 2025 for a new bear market would not be over until the $40-50k area. A 40% return in cycle 5 peaks out at $70k after the 2028 halving, a macro lower high! Remember talking heads are calling for $1m and beyond 2 years later.
If that becomes true, Bitcoin has entered a confirmed macro multi year bear market. A bear market just as long as the bull market from 2010. Such a bear market would not see price action arrested until around $6k in 2039! A long way from Michael Saylor’s $13 million per coin in 2045.
Welcome to the Ponzi scheme.
Reason 2
The Fibonacci 1.618 extension has been an excellent marker for the cycle top, as were previous extensions in previous cycle tops. The market will always react to Fibonacci extensions regardless. Even if you believe Bitcoin will continue to print higher highs and 2026 is going to a very green year for price action.. you must accept price action will react strongly with those extensions, it always has.
But there’s more…. the 1.618 extension for this cycle shares confluence with point number 1. Yes, the quarterly reduction in return forecast of 160% for this Halving is also the 1.618. Dazzled? You should be!
There are many other studies for considering this level as the market top, which is discussed elsewhere.
Conclusions
If history continues to rhyme, the next 40 days may mark not only the top of this cycle, but also the start of Bitcoin’s long fade into irrelevance. A projected move to the $160k–$180k range would appear spectacular on headlines, yet within the broader arc of Bitcoin’s halving mechanics, it represents nothing more than the final gasp of exponential returns before the math itself runs out of road.
Each halving cycle has delivered progressively weaker gains, compressing the dream from life-changing multiples to mere percentages. At this trajectory, the next cycle risks producing a macro lower high, the first true sign of a terminal bear market. Beyond that lies the possibility of decades-long decline, where the legend of “digital gold” becomes just another case study in market psychology and technological obsolescence.
The irony is inescapable: what was once celebrated as unshackled freedom from centralised control now trades under the thumb of ETFs, influencers, and institutional flows. The rebellion has been monetised, the revolution syndicated. If October 2025 plays out as expected, we will look back not at the rise of Bitcoin to a million dollars per coin, but at its slow descent into being just another ticker on the screen, remembered more for what it symbolised than for what it ever achieved.
Ww
Second Amendment I'm not getting too much into the politics here, but suffice to say the shocking events of today has sent shockwaves through the US. What was particularly shocking was the manner in which it happened, during a debate about violence and ownership of arms.
Cutting through the news at looking at the market, what does this mean? I for one believe that the civil unrest from this event could cause issues. I do pray this is not the case, but emotions are running high.
Looking at a couple of charts here, I've had this on my watchlist I think you should keep an eye on it too. I have noticed a change in market structure here, we have reclaimed the 0.786 Fibonacci.
Do what's best for you, not financial advice. Above all, be safe.
CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 10 September 2025- CHFJPY reversed from resistance area
- Likely to fall to support level 183.20.
CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area between the key resistance level 186.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of July) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 3, which belongs to the upward impulse wave (5) from August.
Given the strength of the resistance level 186.00, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to fall toward the next support level 183.20.
SLF Coin SelfChain Token Price Prediction and Technical AnalysisSLF/USDT has been in a steady downtrend but recently showed a strong spike from the 0.0274 demand zone, reclaiming short-term momentum. Price is now hovering below the 0.0511 resistance, where sellers have re-entered. If bulls manage to hold higher lows above 0.0327 support, another push toward 0.0511 could unfold. On the other hand, losing 0.0327 risks a deeper pullback back into the 0.0274 demand base before any recovery attempt.
📈 Key Levels:
Buy trigger: Rejection bounce from 0.0327 support
Buy zone: 0.0274 – 0.0327 region
Target 1: 0.0511 resistance
Target 2: Potential continuation above 0.055 if momentum strengthens
Invalidation: Daily close below 0.0274 (would extend bearish control)
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Linea Coin Token Prediction and Technical AnalysisLINEA/USDT remains under heavy selling pressure after its sharp launch spike, but price is now consolidating in a narrow range just below the 0.0327 resistance. The chart shows possible accumulation, with buyers looking to defend this base for a potential recovery. If price reclaims 0.0327, a push toward the next key resistance at 0.0449 could unfold. Sustained strength above that level opens the door toward 0.0647 major resistance. On the downside, repeated failure to hold above 0.0327 risks dragging price back into weakness.
📈 Key Levels:
Buy trigger: Reclaim and hold above 0.0327 support
Buy zone: 0.0327 – 0.0350 region
Target 1: 0.0449 resistance
Target 2: 0.0647 resistance
Invalidation: Daily close below 0.0250 (would extend bearish pressure)
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