AUDUSD 1H (OANDA): Bull Trend Still IntactAUDUSD 1H (OANDA): Bull Trend Still Intact, But Price Is Stalling Under a Weak High
AUDUSD has been trending higher in a clean staircase structure on the 1H chart, printing multiple BOS legs from the mid-0.66s up into the 0.69 handle. The current price action is now compressing inside a tight consolidation box near the highs, right beneath a marked weak high. This is the typical area where the market either breaks and continues the uptrend, or runs the weak high (liquidity grab) and then rotates lower into the nearest demand zones.
Today’s plan is built around trendline structure, Fibonacci retracement, EMA alignment, RSI confirmation, and clear support/resistance zones to avoid getting chopped inside the box.
Market Structure and Price Behavior
Trend: bullish on 1H (multiple BOS steps).
Current state: distribution-like range at the top, with equal lows inside the box (liquidity resting below).
Key idea: weak high above the range invites a sweep. The reaction after that sweep is what decides continuation vs deeper pullback.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
Resistance (sell pressure / breakout trigger)
0.6935–0.6940: range ceiling and weak high area (main breakout/sweep zone).
0.6950: next upside magnet if acceptance above 0.6940.
Support (buy response / breakdown trigger)
0.6910–0.6905: mid-range pivot (where price keeps rotating).
0.6895–0.6890: range floor and first key support (loss of control if 1H closes below).
0.6845–0.6840: first lower demand zone (next high-probability reaction area if breakdown confirms).
0.6800: secondary demand zone below.
0.6760: deeper support pocket.
0.6720: major base support in the prior structure.
0.6660: strong low (structure invalidation for the larger move).
Trendline Read
The main rising trendline from the rally base is still intact, which keeps the directional bias bullish. However, as soon as price transitions into a flat top range, trendline entries become lower quality. In this phase, edges of the box matter more than the diagonal line.
Fibonacci Map (Best “Buy-the-Dip” Zones)
Anchor Fibonacci from the latest impulse leg into the consolidation high:
0.382 retracement often aligns with the range floor region (around 0.689x area).
0.5 retracement typically sits near the next demand zone (often the 0.684x region on this chart).
0.618 retracement becomes the “last dip buy” zone before the trend weakens (often closer to 0.680x on this structure).
This supports a simple logic:
If 0.6890 holds, pullbacks are shallow and continuation remains likely.
If 0.6890 breaks and retest fails, expect a deeper rotation toward 0.6840 first.
EMA and RSI Filters (Fast Confirmation Rules)
EMA (suggestion: EMA20 and EMA50 on 1H)
Bullish continuation: price holds above EMA20 and EMA20 stays above EMA50.
Early warning: repeated 1H closes below EMA20 while trapped in the range often precede a flush into lower demand.
RSI (14)
Bull control: RSI holds above 50 during consolidation.
Breakout confirmation: RSI pushes above 60 as price accepts above 0.6940.
Breakdown risk: RSI slips below 45 and stays there while price is below 0.6890.
Trading Scenarios for Today (Entry, SL, TP)
Scenario 1: Buy Breakout Above 0.6940 (Trend Continuation)
Trigger
1H candle closes above 0.6940, followed by a retest that holds 0.6940–0.6935 as support.
Entry
Buy on the retest confirmation (rejection wick or bullish engulfing on 1H/15m).
Stop loss
SL below 0.6910 (aggressive) or below 0.6890 (safer, avoids stop-hunts).
Take profit
TP1: 0.6950
TP2: trail using EMA20 or last 1H higher low (if momentum expands).
Best use case
Only when there is acceptance above the range, not just a wick.
Scenario 2: Buy Pullback at the Range Floor 0.6895–0.6890 (Higher R:R)
Trigger
Price dips to the range floor and prints clear rejection (strong lower wick, bullish engulfing), RSI holds near/above 50.
Entry
Buy 0.6895–0.6890 after confirmation.
Stop loss
SL below 0.6880 (tight) or below 0.6840 (safer if volatility is high).
Take profit
TP1: 0.6910–0.6915
TP2: 0.6935–0.6940
Best use case
When you want to trade the range edge with defined invalidation.
Scenario 3: Sell Breakdown Below 0.6890 (Rotation Into Demand)
Trigger
1H close below 0.6890, then a retest fails (0.6890 turns into resistance).
Entry
Sell the retest rejection around 0.6890–0.6900.
Stop loss
SL above 0.6915.
Take profit
TP1: 0.6845–0.6840
TP2: 0.6800 (if momentum and RSI stay bearish)
Best use case
This is the clean bearish setup; avoid selling inside the middle of the box.
Scenario 4: Liquidity Sweep Above the Weak High Then Fade (Advanced)
Trigger
Price spikes above 0.6940 (sweeps weak high) but closes back inside the range with a strong rejection candle.
Entry
Sell after the rejection close, preferably on a lower timeframe pullback.
Stop loss
SL above the sweep high.
Take profit
TP1: 0.6910
TP2: 0.6890
TP3: 0.6840 if 0.6890 breaks afterward
Best use case
Only if the sweep is obvious and the close confirms failure.
Execution Notes (How to Avoid Getting Chopped)
Do not trade the middle of the range (around 0.6910–0.6915) without a clear signal; it is designed to trap both sides.
The highest-quality decisions happen at 0.6940 (range top) and 0.6890 (range floor).
Wait for 1H closes for confirmation around the key levels to reduce false breaks.
Summary
AUDUSD 1H remains structurally bullish, but the market is currently compressing under a weak high inside a tight range. The primary plan is to buy a confirmed breakout above 0.6940 or buy a pullback rejection at 0.6890. A bearish rotation is only favored if 0.6890 breaks with a confirmed retest failure, which opens the path to 0.6840 and potentially 0.6800.
