DXY [US$ INDEX] EWP TC FIB ANALYSIS MONTHLY TFDXY – Monthly Macro Structure
The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade within a long-term descending macro channel originating from the 1985 Plaza Accord high. The 2001 and 2022 peaks both align precisely with this falling resistance, confirming a multi-decade pattern of lower highs.
The advance since the 2008 low appears corrective, forming a large W–X–Y structure rather than a five-wave impulse. The current recovery phase represents the final wave Y, now approaching confluence between declining channel resistance, horizontal supply, and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Momentum supports this interpretation. Monthly RSI shows clear bearish divergence relative to the 2022 high, indicating structural exhaustion rather than trend continuation.
If wave Y completes within this resistance zone, a decisive breakdown below the corrective structure would signal the end of the entire post-GFC dollar rally. Long-term technical projections point toward the 58 region, aligning with historical support and lower-channel targets.
From a macro perspective, current strength remains corrective until proven otherwise.
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