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Wave Analysis

BUY GBPAUD now for bullish trend Reversal ...............BUY GBPAUD now for bullish trend Reversal ............... STOP LOSS: 1,9700 This buy trade setup is based on divergence for trend reversal trading pattern on the 4h time frame ... Always remember, the trend is your friend until it reverses against you , so whenever you can get a signal that the trend is about to come to and end is good for you to be part of it... TAKE PROFIT : take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything... Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with...
Long
by BALE_FX
SELL XAUUSD now for bearish trend Reversal ..........SELL XAUUSD now for bearish trend Reversal .......... STOP LOSS: 5,086 This sell trade setup is based on divergence for trend reversal trading pattern on the 4h time frame ... Always remember, the trend is your friend until it reverses against you , so whenever you can get a signal that the trend is about to come to and end is good for you to be part of it... TAKE PROFIT : take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything... Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with...
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by BALE_FX
3
Jan 26, 2026 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Summary: Across multiple timeframes, bullish momentum remains strong, and the preferred strategy is to buy pullbacks where support holds. The key level to watch is 4900. Only if price breaks below 4900 would a potential downside channel start to open. Trade carefully, manage risk well, and prioritize capital protection. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 4990 – All-time high • 4976 – Support • 4967 – Support • 4958 – Support • 4948 – Support • 4938 – Support 📈 Intraday Strategy: SELL: If price breaks below 4976 → target 4971, with further downside toward 4967, 4962, 4958 BUY: If price holds above 4990 → target 4995, with further upside toward 5000, 5005, 5010 If you find this helpful or traded based on this plan, your likes, comments, and follows mean a lot and keep me motivated. Thanks for the support!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
XAUUSD 1D The ever-shining yellow precious metal. Some analysts say it will stabilize at 5000, but we tell them that gold may take a break, but its targets are far greater than they predict. Not even 6000 or 7000; its targets are much higher than that. We will see this with the disasters, wars, and deep political machinations we witness daily, just as we have seen it before with every price surge and new peak for gold. Enough talk. Gold is currently targeting 5290, from where it will likely fall. 4828. From there, it will be reinstated. But now, it's enough to look at just one or two levels to target from smaller timeframes in order to avoid the risk that our personal trading accounts cannot bear.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MONTSRALLAM
USDJPY 30-Min — Volume Buy Reversal Triggered⚡Base : Hanzo Trading Alpha Algorithm The algorithm calculates volatility displacement vs liquidity recovery, identifying where probability meets imbalance. It trades only where precision, volume, and manipulation intersect —only logic. Technical Reasons / Direction — LONG / Reversal 154.860 Area ☄️Bullish momentum confirmed through strong candle body. ☄️Structure shifted with higher-low near key demand base. ☄️Volume expanding confirms order-flow alignment upward. ☄️Buyers reclaimed imbalance with sustained clean break. ☄️Algorithm detects rising momentum under low liquidity. ⚙️ Hanzo Alpha Trading Protocol The Alpha Candle defines the day’s real control zone — the first battle of momentum. From this origin, the Volume Window reveals where the next precision strike begins. ⚙️ Hanzo Volume Window / Map Window tracked from 10:30 — mapping true market behavior. POC alignment exposes institutional bias and breakout potential zones. ⚙️ Hanzo Delta Window / Pulse Delta window monitors real buying vs. selling power behind each move. Tracks volume aggression to expose who controls the candle — buyers or sellers. When Delta aligns with Volume Map, momentum becomes undeniable.
Long
by Path_Of_Hanzo
BTCUSD 4H buying Bitcoin is poised for a surge to new highs today, January 26th. It's inevitable that Bitcoin will either rise or plummet. My analysis is simple, and trading based on it is even simpler: just wait for it to touch the rising line, then identify the candlestick that touched it and buy. The signal to exit a buy and continue selling is two new closes below the rising line. Otherwise, it's a buy now. Once it responds to the signal, I will provide you with short-term and long-term target levels. And God knows best.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by MONTSRALLAM
USDCAD Simple SetupUnder the new leadership of Mark Carney, Canada is positioning itself intelligently for the next phase of global economic stress. Carney isn’t a politician learning economics on the fly—he’s a former Governor of the Bank of England who has already managed crises at the highest level. That matters when capital gets selective, and policy mistakes get punished. Canada is also moving in the right external direction, deepening trade and industrial ties with the EU and China, particularly in energy and EV supply chains. At the same time, the U.S. is moving the opposite way—more isolationist, more confrontational, and less predictable under Trump, politically, militarily, and economically. Relative positioning matters in FX. Policy divergence plus capital flows make this pair structurally vulnerable to the downside—exactly what the chart is already signaling. Lastly, CAD is a commodity trade as a little bonus. ;) Counting is not political, so don't try to make it so. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in raw truth, not hype.
Short
by RealMacro
11
USDRUB — Current Thoughts — 01/25/2026 — What's Next?Good day, friends. Today we'll analyze the USDRUB pair and try to predict where the ruble is heading. Obviously, the exchange rate is currently under manual control, but still. Let's start with the big picture We can observe that the price is at a key historical level — roughly the same level as before the conflict began. The second level of interest lies in key accumulation zones. In this zone, we can expect potential consolidation if the regulator continues pumping the market with foreign currency. Now, let's zoom in — the price is being pushed toward a key level. Why is that? Let's look at the news. The main points: CMASF (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting) — an analytical center close to the Russian government — warns of a high probability of a banking crisis in the second half of 2026 and a possible recession by October 2026 (due to loan servicing problems among households and businesses, as well as rising delinquencies). NWF (National Wealth Fund) The Fund is injecting one trillion rubles into state banks following warnings about an impending banking crisis. Information about NWF injections into state banks fully corresponds to official data from Russia's Ministry of Finance, published on January 20, 2026. NWF Injections into State Banks: • VEB.RF — 1,319.0 billion RUB (deposits and subordinated deposits) • VTB — 293.2 billion RUB (subordinated deposits) • Gazprombank — 204.1 billion RUB (subordinated deposits) • Sberbank — 94.2 billion RUB (subordinated deposit) • Sovcombank — 29.6 billion RUB (subordinated deposit) Earlier, Bloomberg reported that executives of Russia's largest banks discussed the possibility of seeking government support due to rising bad loans. But the devil is in the details, and the name of that detail is — the Central Bank's Fiscal Rule. What It Is and How It Works The CBR Fiscal Rule is a mechanism that directly links government spending (including from the NWF) to the exchange rate through automatic liquidity sterilization. Simplified scheme: When the Ministry of Finance spends NWF money to support banks, it pumps rubles into the economy. This creates excess liquidity, which can cause inflation and weaken the ruble. The Central Bank sells foreign currency from its reserves on the domestic market to absorb excess rubles and ease pressure on the exchange rate. Simultaneously, the CBR could raise interest rates (making credit more expensive) to sterilize excess liquidity. 💥 Why the Fiscal Rule Is Currently Working Against the Ruble Problem #1: Depletion of Foreign Currency Reserves In January 2026, the CBR sharply increased currency sales — by 17.42 billion rubles daily. This is twice as much as at the end of 2025. The paradox: The more the NWF spends on bank support, the faster the CBR is forced to dump currency to prevent inflation. But currency reserves are finite — according to the data above, the liquid portion of the NWF has shrunk to 4.08 trillion rubles (~1.9% of GDP). Problem #2: The Cost of Money Trap • CBR sells currency → USD supply increases → Weakens ruble ↓ • CBR raises rates → Attracts investment → Strengthens ruble ↑ • MinFin spends NWF → Pumps rubles into economy → Weakens ruble ↓ Problem #3: Loss of Rate Maneuverability Currently, the CBR is in a contradictory position: • Upward pressure on rates: NWF spending generates excess rubles and inflationary pressure, requiring higher rates. • Downward pressure on rates: Banks are in crisis and need lower rates for debt servicing. Expected trajectory: The CBR plans to reduce the average key rate from the current ~19% to 13% in 2026. When rates start to decline, this will directly undermine the attractiveness of ruble-denominated assets for foreign investors, creating additional pressure on the currency. Current Situation (January 2026) The Ministry of Finance is actively increasing currency sales under the fiscal rule: • In January–early February, the volume of gold and currency sales will increase. • This has led to temporary ruble strengthening below 78 RUB/USD. • However, this is a short-term effect. 🎯 Conclusions on the Fiscal Rule's Impact on USD/RUB Final assessment: The fiscal rule in this context is not a panacea but a delaying mechanism. It buys time but simultaneously accumulates risks through NWF depletion. If the banking crisis hits (H2 2026) and even larger injections are needed, the system could quickly collapse, causing sharp ruble depreciation. 📊 Current NWF Liquidity Level (as of January 1, 2026) NWF liquid assets totaled: • 4.085 trillion rubles or 52.2 billion USD • This is ~1.9% of GDP (for comparison: at the beginning of 2024, it was ~7% of GDP) NWF Structure (end of December 2025): • Total volume: 13.42 trillion rubles (6.2% of GDP) • Liquid portion: 4.08 trillion rubles (30% of total) • Illiquid portion: 9.34 trillion rubles (stocks, gold, real estate) Depletion Rate: Critically High Over one year (2025), the liquid portion decreased by approximately 1.5–2 trillion rubles due to: Injections into state banks: 1.02 trillion rubles Budget deficit financing: unofficially another ~0.5–0.7 trillion rubles Currency revaluation losses: foreign currency depreciates when the ruble weakens The currency position is particularly vulnerable: • Chinese yuan reserves fell to 209.15 billion yuan — the lowest since the fund's creation. • This indicates maximum currency sales to support the ruble exchange rate. 🚨 Budget Pressure in 2026 Planned budget deficit: 3.8 trillion rubles Officially approved by the State Duma: • Revenue: 40.3 trillion rubles • Expenditure: 44 trillion rubles • Deficit: 3.8 trillion rubles (1.8% of GDP) • From NWF: only 38.5 billion rubles (officially) The NWF was created as a buffer for rainy days, but it is currently being spent to maintain the current economy. This means there is no safety cushion, and the first serious shock (banking crisis, oil price collapse, new sanctions) will lead to an uncontrolled crisis in late 2026 – early 2027. Some may beat their chest and claim that sanctions don't work, but... The treasury is running dry, milord. ⏰ Depletion Forecast: 3 Scenarios (assuming current sanctions persist) Scenario 1: BASELINE (1.5–2 trillion RUB/year spending from NWF) At the 2025 pace: • Jan 1, 2026 — 4.08 trillion RUB — Current state • Jan 1, 2027 — 2.0–2.5 trillion RUB — Critical level • Jan 1, 2028 — 0.5–1.0 trillion RUB — Rock bottom Scenario 2: ACCELERATED (2.5–3 trillion RUB/year spending) This scenario develops if: • The banking crisis starts earlier (Q2 2026 instead of H2 2026) • Bank injections increase from 1.02 trillion to 2+ trillion rubles per year • The budget deficit expands (due to military operations, sanctions, revenue decline) Timeline: • Jan 1, 2026 — 4.08 trillion RUB • Jul 1, 2026 — 2.5–2.8 trillion RUB — Crisis begins • Jan 1, 2027 — 1.5–1.8 trillion RUB — Panic begins • Jul 1, 2027 — ~0 trillion RUB Scenario 3: OPTIMISTIC (replenishment from oil & gas revenues) Conditions: • Brent oil price stable at 70–72 USD/barrel • IMF forecasts 62.13 USD/barrel average for 2026 • Current prices: 66–70 USD/barrel Calculation: If oil holds at 70 USD/barrel, annual oil & gas revenues will be ~10–10.5 trillion rubles. With planned NWF spending of 38.5 billion rubles (per the official 2026 budget), the fund: • Will be replenished by approximately 1–2 trillion RUB per year • Depletion will be postponed by 5–7 years (However, news about the seizure of the shadow fleet doesn't add much optimism here.) 📈 Key Monitoring Checkpoints • Jan 1, 2026 — 4.08 trillion — Current state • Apr 1, 2026 — 3.2–3.5 trillion — Q1: budget & bank support • Jul 1, 2026 — 2.5–2.8 trillion — Possible crisis onset • Oct 1, 2026 — 1.8–2.2 trillion — Panic begins (new injections) 💥 What Happens When the NWF Is Depleted Short-term effect (1–3 months before depletion): Markets will panic: • Speculation on ruble weakening → massive capital outflow • Accelerating inflation → CBR forced to raise rates despite the crisis • Chaos in the currency market — CBR may introduce exchange controls Scenarios (from most to least likely): Introduction of currency controls Sharp ruble depreciation (110–130 RUB/USD) Depositor panic, bank runs Bank defaults (payment failures) Devaluation, restructuring Related Conclusion To negotiate sanctions relief in the context of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, there are approximately 3 years left. Otherwise, things will get very tough. To cover the budget deficit, our government officials, out of love for the people and economic necessity, will invent even more taxes and fees. The one-party system will easily pass any law. Raising the retirement age, pension points, VAT increases — these are just flowers. 📉 Forecast Thoughts If the CBR continues currency sales — ruble strengthening to 73 RUB. A spike down to 72 is possible. Keep in mind that they need to push the rate to a level where there's enough buffer when rates are cut. Consolidation is possible amid Q1 injections, followed by expected growth. First growth target: 80.70 Second target: 87–90 Possible scenario breaker: Progress in negotiations. On positive news with official confirmation, the ruble could strengthen sharply (which isn't great for business, but that's another story). What do you think? With Respect to Everyone, Your #SinnSeed
Long
by SinnSeed
AVA Falling Wedge at Demand | Reversal Setup FormingAVA is forming a clear falling wedge pattern on the 1D timeframe, with price compressing toward the lower boundary of the structure. The current pullback has reached a key demand zone around 0.30–0.28, aligning with the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement. Falling wedges are typically bullish reversal structures. As long as this demand zone holds, price can rotate higher and attempt a breakout above wedge resistance. A confirmed breakout would open upside toward 0.33, followed by 0.38. A clean loss of the demand zone would invalidate the setup and expose downside toward 0.23. This is a critical reaction area.
by CryptoCoinsCoach
1
Bitcoin Price AnalysisBitcoin is declining within a descending channel that I charted just over a day ago. The price action is following the projected path as anticipated. Key Levels to Watch: Primary Target Zone: $80,700 - $79,000 This is where I’m expecting the next potential bounce. Specifically, I’m watching for a sweep of the lows around $79,500 as a likely scenario. Alternative Scenarios: If we fail to find support in the $80,700-$79,000 range, the technical picture deteriorates significantly, with $55,000 becoming a realistic downside target. There’s also the possibility of a shorter-term bounce occurring at the current local lows around $84,600-$84,800, though this seems less probable given the lack of buying pressure we’re seeing at these levels. Timeline: We have considerable time for this price action to develop and resolve, so there’s no immediate rush to判断 the final direction. Base Case: My primary expectation remains a move down to sweep the $80,000 level, with $79,500 as the most likely area where we see a meaningful reaction.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Short
by RickyTSpanish
2
Bitcoin is still under the control of the bears (4H)This analysis is an updated follow-up to the previous analysis, which you can find in the Related Ideas section. This Bitcoin move is still valid and intact. Although price has experienced a drop, it has not yet reached the main supply zone, where large sellers and institutional orders are expected to be positioned. At this stage, price is expected to enter a corrective and neutral pullback phase, slowly moving toward our planned entry areas. This type of behavior is typical market conditioning it creates uncertainty, draws in late buyers, and weakens conviction before the next directional move. Once price reaches the zone between the two red lines, which represent our primary entry levels, a rejection to the downside is expected. The upper green box represents our first target (TP1) The lower green box represents our second target (TP2) A daily candle close above the invalidation level will completely invalidate this analysis. As always, let price come to you, respect your levels, and avoid emotional decision-making. The market rewards patience far more than prediction. If you have a coin or altcoin you want analyzed, first hit the like button and then comment its name so I can review it for you. This is not a trade setup, as it has no precise stop-loss, stop, or target. I do not publish my trade setups here.
by behdark
10
BTC: Bearish Breakdown or Another Trap?BTC: Bearish Breakdown or Another Trap? As of November 20, 2025, BTC was developing in a major corrective pattern for about 2 months. Currently, we can see a clear bearish breakout from this pattern, indicating an increase in bearish momentum. I think we need to be very careful because BTC has changed its outlook from bullish to bearish and vice versa many times in the past few months, making it difficult to have a clear idea about BTC. BTC could be in another major transformation again and could rise again, so we need to be careful again. If BTC manages to break above 82K, then we can have a better idea of ​​whether the downtrend can continue further. If 82K breaks, BTC price could rise again into something more complex. At the moment, it is only falling. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
12
XAUUSD: Gold and the Cost of ConvictionGold is trading less like a hedge and more like a narrative in motion. The current advance in spot prices reflects not just macro anxiety, but a market that is actively negotiating its own excess. After a powerful impulsive rally, price is now pressing into a region where conviction matters more than momentum. The recent surge has carried gold into a zone that historically attracts two very different types of participants. Trend followers see continuation toward higher extensions, while risk managers see asymmetry beginning to fade. This tension is visible in the structure itself. The advance has unfolded in a clear impulsive sequence, with price now hovering near the upper Fibonacci retracement band where prior cycles have either accelerated sharply or stalled into complex consolidations. The primary scenario assumes gold is in the latter stages of an impulsive move, with one more upward resolution still possible. In this path, price holds above the mid retracement zone and consolidates through time rather than price. Such behavior would suggest strength beneath the surface, allowing the market to reset momentum before attempting a final push toward the upper extension area. A clean break and acceptance above this region would reinforce the idea that gold is repricing structurally higher rather than merely reacting to short term catalysts. A second scenario is more nuanced and arguably more consistent with late cycle behavior. Here, gold remains capped beneath resistance and begins tracing a choppy sequence of higher lows and lower highs. This would not be a collapse, but a digestion phase. The market would be signaling that it needs participation to catch up with price. In this case, volatility compresses, sentiment cools, and the eventual resolution becomes more meaningful. Directionally, this scenario keeps the broader bullish structure intact while delaying immediate upside. The third scenario is the one fewer participants are emotionally prepared for, despite its technical validity. A failure to hold above the key retracement zone would open the door to a deeper corrective move toward the prior demand area. Such a decline would look dramatic on a lower time frame but would remain corrective within the broader trend. Importantly, this path would reset momentum indicators that are currently stretched and rebuild the foundation for a more sustainable advance later in the year. Historically, gold has often required this type of shakeout before resuming its primary trend. Momentum indicators reinforce the idea that the market is at an inflection point rather than a conclusion. Relative strength remains elevated, signaling strong underlying demand, but it also warns that upside from here is earned rather than given. Price is no longer cheap in emotional terms, even if it remains compelling in strategic ones. What makes this moment distinctive is not the level of gold, but the clarity of the decision ahead. The market is no longer reacting. It is choosing. Whether that choice resolves higher through continuation, sideways through consolidation, or lower through correction will shape positioning well beyond the next few weeks. For now, gold is best understood not as a safe haven or a speculative asset, but as a market in conversation with itself. The lines on the chart are not predictions. They are propositions. The coming sessions will determine which argument carries the most weight.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kap_Waves
EURUSD Pullback Underway – Will 1.1700 Hold the Trend?EURUSD Pullback Underway – Will 1.1700 Hold the Trend? Following Trump's comments on tariffs and Greenland, the high liquidity of the US dollar created unexpected weakness in it. The price is currently correcting after the aggressive upward moves we had yesterday. However, volatility is high given that the market is not clear about Trump's future decisions. Price is near the first and strongest area of ​​the structure from where it could bounce off 1.1700 to resume the uptrend. However, we need to be careful because if 1.1700 is broken, the next support area could be found near 1.1660. Both scenarios are possible with this crazy marker. Watch carefully for signs of a reversal near these areas. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by KlejdiCuni
11