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Wave Analysis

BTCUSD Completes Correction – Heading Towards $125,000BINANCE:BTCUSD is currently trading in a well-defined ascending channel, indicating that the bullish trend continues. The price is following the channel's structure, creating higher highs and higher lows, which is a clear sign that the uptrend remains intact. The recent price correction shows a healthy pullback, which could serve as the foundation for the next upward move. The price is now approaching an important support zone, marked by the lower boundary of the channel and a previous demand zone. If this support holds, it could present an opportunity for buyers to re-enter with strength. The expected target is $125,000 , aligning with the middle of the channel and the previous resistance level. As long as the price remains above the support zone and the ascending trendline, the bullish scenario remains valid. However, if the price breaks below this level, it could invalidate the current setup and increase the likelihood of a deeper correction. Always ensure you confirm your setups and trade with proper risk management. Good luck!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Erikk_Kraft
4
Trade Analysis (USD/CAD – 15m CAP Wave)The broader market trend for USD/CAD remains bullish, with higher timeframes confirming an overall upward direction. However, on the 15-minute timeframe, price action reveals a strong session low zone that has already been tested in a previous session, suggesting potential short-term exhaustion at this level. The current 15m CAP wave indicates a downward move towards the lower boundary of the zone, implying short-term bearish momentum. Given the confluence of previous tests and current CAP direction, a temporary bounce from this support area is possible before any sustained continuation in the broader uptrend. This setup therefore highlights a short-term bearish opportunity within a long-term bullish context.
Long
by sheerazforex
1
GOLD HTF — Is the Buying Climax reach and the BIG short coming??After a +53% yearly gain and a 10% September candle, we might finally be seeing the start of a two-month distribution phase, smart money taking profit before the end of the year and preparing for re-accumulation lower for next year. Wyckoff View (Daily): Possible Buying Climax (BC) followed by Automatic Reaction (AR) and Secondary Test (ST). If confirmed, the markdown could target the $3,440 zone, where major resistance from earlier structure awaits a retest. Until proven otherwise, the macro trend is still bullish, but momentum exhaustion and vertical price action often precede deeper retracements. Trading Plan: Stay small, stay precise. Scalping on M1–M5 to extract 50–100 pips per day is the play while the big money decides the next leg. We don’t predict, we react. Trade like the Casino, not the hopeful gambler. Touch grass, protect peace, stay grateful. Be safe, and God bless you all.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Medintrade
4
Gold Market Nearing a Bottom — Trade with CautionAfter yesterday’s sharp decline, the market is likely entering a gradual bottoming phase. As I mentioned on Saturday, there are still unfilled gaps at 4019–4024 and 3887–3898. If the bears remain dominant, the 4019 gap could be filled, though a move toward 3887 seems less likely unless major negative news triggers it. During any rebound, pay close attention to the 4200–4250 resistance area. If prices fail to stabilize there, the weekly chart pattern will weaken, increasing the risk of a drop toward the 3887 gap. Overall, trade with caution in the near term — the market is being influenced by multiple factors, leading to heightened volatility and risk. Being cautious never hurts. While making profits is important, protecting your account comes first — otherwise, gains mean little. If you prefer fewer, safer trades, focus on the key price zones mentioned above and observe the market more than you act. For those continuing with short-term or scalping strategies, be sure to control your target prices strictly, especially now as the broader trend direction is still being established. Of course, everyone has his or her own trading methods and theories. I will not comment too much here, but just share my own views. If you think it is useful, use it. If it is not useful, just watch the fun.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by China_MsWang
1
Trade Analysis (USD/JPY – 15m CAP Wave)The 15-minute CAP wave shows a clear upward structure, aligning with momentum towards the session high and P-line zone. This move suggests a strong bullish continuation within the intraday context. Once price reaches the SH + PL zone, a retracement is anticipated, which could then complete the corrective phase toward the defined take-profit (TP) area. From a higher timeframe perspective (1H and weekly), the broader trend remains bullish, confirming alignment across multiple timeframes. This confluence supports the probability of a sustained upward move, making this a high-quality setup in line with the prevailing market direction.
Short
by sheerazforex
1
Oct 22, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis: Yesterday formed the largest daily bearish candle in history, breaking below my previously defined bull–bear pivot at 4189. This confirms that bearish momentum has taken control. Watch 4186 closely — this is today’s key level: Below 4186 → focus on selling rallies into resistance. Above 4186 → I’ll need to carefully assess whether bearish pressure has weakened before attempting buying pullbacks into support. Stay with the trend and avoid overtrading against the main direction. I once read a line in a trading book that I’d like to share with everyone: “The market takes the stairs up but the elevator down.” Don’t rush to catch the bottom — it’s always safer to wait for a clear reversal signal and then trade the pullback that confirms it. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 4200 – Psychological level • 4186 – Key bull–bear pivot • 4165 – Resistance • 4150 – Mid-level zone • 4126 – Resistance • 4100 – Psychological level / Major support • 4080 – Support • 4060 – Support • 4045 – Support • 4024 – Support 📈 Intraday Strategy: SELL: If price breaks below 4165 → target 4150, with further downside toward 4126, 4100, 4080 BUY: If price holds above 4186 → target 4190, with further upside toward 4195, 4200
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
BITCOIN Update 10/21/2025: Price Below the W21e✅After the recent surged in early October from 108k to 125k, BTC got Rejected (on OCT10th) and that seems to break market structure. The Wmacd is continuing to remain negative after failing for a bullish crossover when market put in a new ATH at $126k in early OCTOBER. The 2D/3D macd are still negatives, which are suggesting that the medium term trend is in bears control. 🔵Therefore, going from the medium term to the MACRO trend, the next moving averages to look for are the W100ema and the M21ema, currently at $87-83k range. However, price may not get there rapidly as the W50ema (100-102k) could provide a temporary support for another potential attempt to get back above the W21ema. 🟡For the Macro Bullish trend to continue, Price must regain the W21ema and the Wmacd must get back positive. As long as price is below the W21e couple with a negative Wmacd, bulls must remain patient as bears could continue to control the medium to long term trend.
by Sen_Crypto
AUDUSD intraday timeframe 45m This 45-minute chart highlights a short-term opportunity on AUD/USD, structured around a disciplined entry and tight risk management. The setup is based on price consolidation followed by bullish momentum confirmation. 🔹 Entry Level: 0.64903 🔹 Stop Loss: 0.64762 🔹 Take Profit: 0.65050 🔹 Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.12 🔹 Setup Date: October 22, 2025 🔹 Timeframe: 45-minute 🟦 Risk Zone: -0.00141 | -0.28% | 1650.9 🟧 Reward Zone: +0.00147 | +0.30% | 500 This setup favors traders who prioritize precision and efficiency. The trade aligns with intraday volatility patterns and offers a realistic reward-to-risk ratio. Ideal for those monitoring price action around key psychological levels and anticipating movement ahead of the Asian session. ---
Short
by cakpras
1
TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in OrbitTesla is trading near multi-month highs… but the fundamentals tell a very different story. EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164. This combination — slowing growth and extreme valuation — looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup. 🧮 Fundamental Context Over the past few years, Tesla’s growth has slowed dramatically: Revenue rose from 31B → 53B → 81B → 96B → 97B — barely any increase. EPS climbed from 0.2 → 1.6 → 3.6 → 4.3 — and then fell by half. Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend. Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead — which clearly isn’t happening. The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation. Right now, Tesla’s numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle — where prices eventually catch up with reality. 📉 Technical Structure Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure. We’re currently inside the “B” leg, which could already be complete or near completion. Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline. Key levels to watch: 📍 Upper resistance zone: $400 – $550 📍 Primary cluster: around $250 📍 Support zone: $150 – $200 The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 — once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200. That’s where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg. ⚠️ Market Outlook While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Tesla’s fundamentals are deteriorating sharply. Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Musk’s fan base — but markets always return to fundamentals. And those fundamentals are pointing downward. 📊 Summary EPS and revenue both trending lower 📉 Forward P/E at 164 — completely disconnected from growth metrics Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200–$150 Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution ⚠️ Tesla isn’t a short-term “growth story” anymore — it’s a valuation risk story. Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by sdk-trading
KDA Macro Bottom Forming? Wave 3 Ending, Reversal Setup Brewing🚨 KDA/USDT - Approaching the End of Macro Wave 3 – Reversal Imminent? After nearly 2 years of consistent decline, Kadena (KDA) appears to be in the final stages of its macro corrective structure. Using a blend of Elliott Wave Theory , Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , Fibonacci tools , and Price Action analysis , there is compelling evidence that we may be forming a generational bottom . The chart outlines a clean 5-wave Elliott impulse to the downside. With Wave 3 nearing completion in a historically strong demand zone ($0.06–$0.03), the probability of a long-term trend reversal is increasing. This zone also aligns with: A full 2.618 Fibonacci extension, Prior accumulation levels, A potential liquidity sweep below Wave 3, Oversold market conditions likely visible on higher timeframes (RSI/MACD divergence). On the fundamentals side, Kadena continues to innovate with its high-throughput PoW Chainweb architecture , human-readable smart contracts via Pact , and growing DeFi infrastructure. It remains one of the most undervalued layer-1s in the market with zero major security exploits since launch. 🔮 If the reversal confirms , long-term targets lie at: $1.25 (0.5 Fib Retracement) $7.97 (prior high) $222 (1.618 macro extension, multi-year projection) This setup may not play out overnight, but it's the type of structure that smart money patiently builds positions into , while retail fears the bottom. 📊 1. Elliott Wave Theory Confluence Looking at the macro Elliott Wave structure: 🔹 A clear 5-wave impulsive decline appears to be forming: Wave 1 & 2 have already played out. Wave 3, being the most aggressive, is complete or near completion. Wave 4 retracement was shallow and corrective (possibly a bear flag/pennant). Wave 5 is projected to complete with a final leg lower— potential bottom expected before a strong reversal. 🔹 Post wave 5, an ABC corrective wave or a larger impulsive reversal is projected (labeled on chart), suggesting a macro trend shift . 🧠 2. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) 💰 Accumulation Zones: Price is hovering in a demand zone (between $0.06 - $0.25). This area has high probability of institutional accumulation as retail sells into fear. 📉 Liquidity Sweeps: Recent price action shows a sharp move down, likely a liquidity grab below previous swing lows (a classic SMC manipulation before reversal). The anticipated "spring" move from this zone aligns with Wyckoff accumulation patterns. 🔄 Break of Structure (BoS): A break above the corrective structure post-wave 5 would confirm a bullish market structure shift . 🌀 3. Fibonacci Retracement & Extension 🔹 Fibonacci Extension: Wave 3 extension seems to have reached the 2.618% level , which is a textbook Elliott wave projection level. This provides high confluence that Wave 5 bottom may be close. 🔹 Fibonacci Retracement Targets: Retracement to 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci zone (~$1.25 - $7.97) expected in post-wave rally. The ultimate 1.618 extension target (~$222) could play out if a macro bull cycle aligns , possibly by 2029. 🕵️‍♂️ 4. Price Action Analysis 📉 Bearish Channel Breakdown : Price has followed a descending channel and is nearing the lower boundary. False breakdowns often result in violent reversals . 📈 Bullish Divergence (likely on RSI) : If RSI or other momentum indicators show divergence, this adds confirmation for a reversal setup . 📌 Key Levels to Watch : Resistance : $0.3439, $1.25, $7.97 Support : $0.13, $0.06, $0.03 A break and hold above $1.25 could signal the start of a macro uptrend . 🔮 Final Thoughts 🔁 We're likely nearing the end of a macro bearish cycle (Wave 3) . 💼 With institutional accumulation signs , Fibonacci confluence , and solid fundamentals **, KDA presents a strong asymmetric opportunity . 🧨 If Wave 5 completes near $0.06 - $0.03, the upside potential toward $7.97 (first macro target) and possibly $222 (1.618 extension) offers high R/R (risk/reward) for long-term investors. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This analysis is educational and not financial advice. Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research). #KDA #KDAUSDT #Kadena #CryptoAnalysis #ElliottWave #SmartMoney #Wyckoff #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoReversal #AltcoinAnalysis #PriceAction #Fibonacci #Layer1 #CryptoFundamentals #TradingSetup #LongTermHold #Accumulation #CryptoMacro #TradingEducation #WaveTheory #Cryptocurrency
by fibcos
5
BTBT / DailyNASDAQ:BTBT — Decoding the DNA of the Happy Shark!! 🧬 BIT Digital, Inc. — 📊Technical Update (Daily) As outlined in prior updates, the first corrective move within the ongoing advance of Minute Wave ⓥ found precise support at the apex of the equivalence lines✨— a key structural point within the Leading Diagonal of Intermediate Wave (1). This reaction continues to support the case for a potential extension in Wave ⓥ of Minor Wave 5, suggesting the uptrend remains intact — with differing degrees of bullish structures still in play. Breakout confirmation keeps the $9.00 🎯 Fib target in play — +133.33%📈 upside potential into early December. Wave Analysis: Based on the Bullish Alt. Scenario (Weekly Frame) The entire advance since mid-April appears to be unfolding as Intermediate Wave (1) — potentially forming a Leading Expanding Diagonal, shaped like a happy shark!! 🌊🦈🌊🌊 This early structure may be laying the groundwork for much larger impulsive Intermediate advance within Primary Wave ⓷ (not visible on the daily timeframe). The expanding diagonal signals a broader bullish shift, potentially anchoring a sustained long-term uptrend. Long-term structure continues to build — monitor closely for breakout confirmation and volume support. 🔖 For context, refer to the Weekly Bullish Alt. Scenario published on Oct. 1st. #TradingView #StocksToWatch #MarketAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #ElliottWave #WaveAnalysis #TrendAnalysis #FibLevels #FinTwit #Investing #BTBT #DataCenters #CryptoMining #AIStocks #HPC #ETH #Ethereum NASDAQ:BTBT CRYPTOCAP:ETH BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
NASDAQ:BTBTLong
by ElliottChart
1
The ratio of Silver / M2 reached an important resistanceThe ratio of Silver / M2 (x$1T) has reached an important resistance last Thursday. It also reached rare overbought condition (see the monthly RSI14 at the 78 resistance area). It is now due for a consolidation phase, support seen near 0.18 (implying a pullback of about 18% to $44 from the recent high of $54 on silver. This could take a few months (normally, but who knows) before exploding above the down trend line towards the 0.53 area. In summary, the rise of silver has just started.
TVC:SILVERLong
by waverity
BTC/USDT 4H AnalysisAfter taking out the sell-side liquidity, Bitcoin has shown signs of reversal and filled previous imbalance zones. Currently, price is reacting from a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around the 110K area after a market structure shift (MSS). 🟢 The bullish scenario suggests that if this FVG holds, BTC could aim for the next buy-side liquidity around 126K as the main target. 🎯 First target: 115K – liquidity area above the short-term high. 🚀 Final target: 126K – buy-side liquidity sweep. 📌 Key zones: Sell-side liquidity taken ✅ FVG (Potential bullish continuation area) Buy-side liquidity at 126K 📅 Analysis based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and liquidity flow. 📖 For educational purposes only — not financial advice.
Long
by Herotraderfx
This Is the End! BTC: The Last DanceIn my previous update , I laid out the case for this bull run to finish as a contracting ending diagonal (cED). That scenario now looks highly probable: the impulse is losing steam, and BINANCE:BTCUSDT CME:BTC1! is struggling to clear new hurdles. Wave Count (1) — initial impulse. (2) — flat correction (expanded flat). (3) — sharp leg with a classic extension. (4) — sharp correction (zigzag), delivered a strong pullback. (5) — finishing as a terminal diagonal (cED): inside it we already have 1–2–3; next up is wave 4 of the diagonal, then the final wave 5 (could be truncated or a minor over-throw). Working zones: wave 4 completion at 98–105k; final push target at 120–140k (I don’t expect materially higher). What It Means The impulse is fading: volume profile is clustered near the highs, the wedge is tightening, and there was no V-shaped recovery after the last dump. Base plan — take time to finish wave 4 → one last wave 5 pop → end of the bull market. Alternative (important) Let’s be honest: the top may already be in. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has failed at ~125k twice, and every time price gets above 120k, seller pressure becomes heavy. It’s quite plausible the wedge already completed and the peak is behind us. Bottom line. Base case: one more breath up within the ending diagonal; alternative: the top is done. Either way, bulls should stay on guard — the 120+ area is where risk rises and partial profit-taking makes sense.
by shakatrade1_618
11
GOLD – top is in?There are many possible Elliott Wave interpretations regarding the recent years in gold, but one thing seems quite clear. The rise that began in August 2025 was preceded by a triangle, which according to wave theory always signals the final wave of an impulse of the same degree. After it concludes, one should expect a correction of the entire impulsive five-wave sequence, typically retracing to the level of the preceding fourth wave. In recent days, the media have been filled with images of people buying physical gold — and as we know, the crowd is never right. Could this widespread euphoria be signaling the end of the bull run, at least for a while? Many signs point to that. It is not unlikely that we will soon see capital rotation into crypto.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Bartleby_the_Trader