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Currency Wars & Competitive Devaluation1. Understanding Currency Wars 1.1 Definition A currency war refers to a situation in which countries intentionally manipulate their exchange rates to gain trade advantages. This is usually done by keeping their currency undervalued against major global currencies (such as the US Dollar or Euro), making their exports cheaper and imports more expensive. 1.2 Difference between Normal Exchange Rate Policies and Currency Wars Normal Exchange Rate Adjustments: Countries may let market forces or monetary policy determine currency values based on economic fundamentals. Currency Wars: Deliberate interventions—such as excessive printing of money, cutting interest rates aggressively, or directly buying foreign currencies—to weaken domestic currency beyond fundamentals. 1.3 Why Nations Engage in Currency Wars Boost Exports: Cheaper currency makes exports more competitive. Reduce Imports: Costlier imports encourage domestic consumption. Stimulate Growth: Export-led growth can help recover from recessions. Tackle Deflation: Weak currency raises import prices, generating inflation. 2. Competitive Devaluation 2.1 Definition Competitive devaluation occurs when multiple countries sequentially lower the value of their currencies in response to each other’s actions. It’s essentially a “race to the bottom,” where no one wins in the long run, but everyone suffers from instability. 2.2 Mechanisms of Devaluation Monetary Policy Tools: Central banks reduce interest rates or engage in quantitative easing (printing money). Foreign Exchange Interventions: Governments or central banks sell domestic currency and buy foreign reserves. Capital Controls: Restrictions on inflows/outflows to maintain currency depreciation. 2.3 Historical Perspective of Competitive Devaluation 1930s Great Depression: Countries abandoned the gold standard and devalued currencies to boost exports. 1970s Bretton Woods Collapse: Exchange rate system breakdown triggered currency adjustments. 2008 Financial Crisis Aftermath: The US, Japan, and emerging economies engaged in aggressive monetary easing. 3. Historical Episodes of Currency Wars 3.1 The Great Depression (1930s) Many countries abandoned the gold standard to devalue their currencies. The US devalued the dollar under Roosevelt, while the UK left the gold standard in 1931. This created a spiral of competitive devaluations, worsening global economic tensions. 3.2 Bretton Woods System Collapse (1971) After World War II, the Bretton Woods system pegged currencies to the US dollar. In 1971, the Nixon Shock ended dollar-gold convertibility. Currencies began floating, leading to sharp adjustments and devaluations. 3.3 Plaza Accord (1985) The US dollar had appreciated significantly, hurting American exports. G5 nations (US, Japan, UK, France, West Germany) agreed to weaken the dollar. A coordinated effort prevented disorderly currency competition. 3.4 Post-2008 Financial Crisis The US Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing (QE), weakening the dollar. Emerging markets like Brazil accused the US of starting a “currency war.” Japan’s Abenomics policy in 2012–13 was also criticized as competitive devaluation. 4. Tools and Strategies of Currency Wars 4.1 Monetary Policy Tools Lowering Interest Rates: Reduces returns for investors, weakening currency. Quantitative Easing (QE): Increases money supply, pressuring currency downward. 4.2 Direct Interventions Central banks buy foreign currencies (e.g., US dollars, euros) to push domestic currency lower. Example: China’s PBoC interventions to keep the yuan undervalued. 4.3 Trade and Fiscal Measures Export subsidies or import tariffs indirectly support devaluation effects. Capital controls prevent appreciation from foreign investment inflows. 4.4 Communication & Market Signals Central banks sometimes issue statements signaling dovish policies to influence expectations. 5. Impact of Currency Wars 5.1 Positive Effects (Short-Term) Boosts Exports: Domestic products become cheaper abroad. Supports Growth: Export-led demand revives economies. Manages Deflation: Import inflation helps economies facing deflation. 5.2 Negative Effects (Long-Term) Retaliation: Other countries devalue, nullifying initial benefits. Inflationary Pressure: Rising import prices fuel inflation. Loss of Investor Confidence: Sudden devaluations deter foreign investors. Trade Tensions: Devaluation leads to accusations of currency manipulation. Global Instability: Competitive devaluation creates uncertainty in capital flows. 6. Case Studies of Currency Wars 6.1 The US and China The US has long accused China of keeping the yuan undervalued. This helped China’s export-led growth model, but created global imbalances. The 2019 US-China trade war also had a currency dimension, with the yuan weakening. 6.2 Japan’s Abenomics (2012–2013) Japan used aggressive monetary easing to weaken the yen. This helped Japanese exports but attracted criticism from trading partners. 6.3 Emerging Market Economies Countries like Brazil, India, and South Korea faced currency inflows due to US QE. To protect domestic industries, they intervened to curb currency appreciation. 7. Role of International Institutions 7.1 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Monitors exchange rate policies. Can label a country a “currency manipulator” if it deliberately undervalues its currency. Provides a platform for coordination to avoid competitive devaluations. 7.2 G20 and G7 Forums where countries pledge to avoid competitive devaluation. Example: G20 statement in 2013 against currency wars. 8. Theoretical Perspectives 8.1 Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policy Currency wars are a form of “beggar-thy-neighbor” policy—where one nation’s gain (through exports) comes at another’s expense. 8.2 Game Theory and Currency Wars Each country has an incentive to devalue, but if all devalue, everyone loses. This creates a prisoner’s dilemma in international economics. 9. Currency Wars in the 21st Century 9.1 Digital Currencies and Devaluation Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) could alter how nations influence exchange rates. Competition among digital currencies may add new layers to currency wars. 9.2 Geopolitics and Sanctions The US dollar’s dominance gives the US leverage through sanctions. Countries like Russia and China promote alternatives (yuan, ruble, gold). 9.3 Post-COVID Era Pandemic recovery led to massive stimulus and QE across the world. The risk of currency tensions resurfaced as nations pursued divergent recovery paths. 10. Preventing Currency Wars 10.1 Coordination through Global Forums Stronger cooperation at IMF, G20, WTO levels can reduce unilateral actions. 10.2 Transparent Monetary Policies Clear communication by central banks helps avoid misinterpretation of currency intentions. 10.3 Diversified Global Reserve System Reducing dependence on the US dollar could limit imbalances. 10.4 Regional Currency Agreements Like the Eurozone, regional cooperation may prevent internal currency competition. Conclusion Currency wars and competitive devaluation are complex phenomena that reveal the deep interconnectedness of global economies. While weakening a currency may bring short-term benefits in terms of exports and growth, the long-term consequences often outweigh the advantages. Retaliatory actions, inflationary pressures, trade tensions, and financial instability make currency wars a dangerous economic strategy. In today’s globalized world, where supply chains and financial markets are deeply integrated, no country can devalue its way to prosperity without harming others. The challenge, therefore, lies in balancing domestic economic needs with global stability. International cooperation, transparency in monetary policies, and reforms in global financial governance remain essential to preventing destructive cycles of competitive devaluation. Currency wars are, in essence, economic battles without winners. History shows us that the path of cooperation, not confrontation, leads to sustainable prosperity.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Role of IMF in Global Currency Stability1. Historical Background of IMF and Currency Stability 1.1 Bretton Woods System The IMF was founded in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference in the aftermath of World War II, when global economies faced destruction and currency instability. The conference aimed to create a system where exchange rates were fixed to the US dollar, which in turn was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. The IMF’s primary role was to oversee this system, provide short-term loans to countries facing balance of payments difficulties, and prevent “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies like competitive devaluations. 1.2 Collapse of Bretton Woods (1971–73) In 1971, the United States suspended the dollar’s convertibility to gold, leading to the collapse of Bretton Woods. Exchange rates became flexible, and the IMF shifted its role from managing fixed exchange rates to monitoring floating rates and providing guidance on currency and economic policies. 1.3 Post-Bretton Woods Era The IMF adapted by focusing on surveillance of global exchange rate policies, promoting currency stability through advice, and intervening during financial crises. It also expanded its role in lending and conditionality, ensuring member countries adopted reforms that contributed to overall stability. 2. Objectives of the IMF in Ensuring Currency Stability The IMF’s Articles of Agreement highlight several key goals linked directly to currency stability: Promote International Monetary Cooperation – Encouraging collaboration among member countries to avoid policies harmful to others. Facilitate Balanced Growth of International Trade – Stable currencies promote smoother trade, avoiding volatility in import/export costs. Promote Exchange Stability – Discouraging currency manipulation or destabilizing devaluations. Assist in Establishing a Multilateral System of Payments – Ensuring convertibility of currencies and reducing exchange restrictions. Provide Resources to Members Facing Balance of Payments Difficulties – Offering loans to stabilize currencies during crises. These objectives highlight the IMF’s fundamental commitment to safeguarding global monetary stability. 3. Mechanisms of IMF in Maintaining Currency Stability The IMF operates through a combination of surveillance, financial assistance, technical assistance, and policy guidance. 3.1 Surveillance The IMF conducts regular monitoring of member countries’ economic and financial policies. Bilateral surveillance: “Article IV Consultations” where IMF economists review a country’s fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies. Multilateral surveillance: Reports like the World Economic Outlook (WEO), Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), and External Sector Report highlight risks to global stability. This surveillance acts as an “early warning system” for potential currency crises. 3.2 Financial Assistance (Lending) The IMF provides loans to countries facing balance of payments crises, which helps stabilize their currency. Types of lending: Stand-By Arrangements (SBA) – short-term assistance. Extended Fund Facility (EFF) – medium-term loans for structural adjustments. Flexible Credit Line (FCL) – for countries with strong fundamentals. Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) – concessional loans for low-income countries. By providing liquidity, the IMF prevents sudden currency collapse. 3.3 Technical Assistance and Capacity Building The IMF helps countries develop strong institutions, including central banks, financial regulatory systems, and fiscal frameworks. Training in monetary policy management reduces risks of mismanagement that could destabilize a currency. 3.4 Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) The IMF issues SDRs as an international reserve asset. SDR allocations provide liquidity to member states during crises, helping them stabilize currencies without excessive borrowing. 4. Role of IMF During Currency Crises 4.1 Latin American Debt Crisis (1980s) Many Latin American countries faced hyperinflation and currency collapse due to high debt and oil shocks. IMF provided rescue packages with conditions such as fiscal austerity and structural reforms. 4.2 Asian Financial Crisis (1997–98) Countries like Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea suffered from speculative attacks and sharp currency depreciations. The IMF intervened with large bailout packages to stabilize currencies and restore investor confidence. 4.3 Global Financial Crisis (2008–09) IMF injected liquidity through lending and SDR allocation, ensuring member countries could support their currencies amidst global panic. 4.4 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis (2010s) Greece, Portugal, and Ireland faced currency and debt instability. IMF, in coordination with the European Central Bank and European Commission, provided rescue packages to protect the euro. 4.5 Recent Interventions (2020–2023) During the COVID-19 pandemic, IMF provided emergency financing to more than 90 countries to stabilize currencies affected by capital flight and reduced exports. SDR allocations worth $650 billion in 2021 boosted global reserves. 5. IMF’s Policy Tools for Currency Stability Exchange Rate Policies – Advises countries on maintaining competitive yet stable exchange rate regimes. Monetary Policies – Encourages inflation control to avoid currency depreciation. Fiscal Discipline – Promotes sustainable debt to prevent currency crises. Capital Flow Management – Recommends policies to manage sudden inflows or outflows of capital. Reserve Management – Encourages countries to build adequate foreign exchange reserves for stability. 6. Criticisms of IMF’s Role in Currency Stability Despite its importance, the IMF has faced significant criticisms: 6.1 Conditionality and Sovereignty IMF loans often come with strict conditions (austerity, privatization, liberalization). Critics argue this undermines national sovereignty and imposes uniform “one-size-fits-all” policies. 6.2 Social Costs of Reforms Austerity measures often lead to unemployment, reduced social spending, and increased poverty. Example: Asian Financial Crisis reforms worsened unemployment and poverty initially. 6.3 Bias Toward Developed Economies The IMF is accused of favoring advanced economies, especially the U.S. and European countries, given their larger voting shares. Developing countries often feel underrepresented in decision-making. 6.4 Inability to Prevent Crises IMF is often reactive rather than proactive. It intervenes after a crisis begins, rather than preventing it. Its surveillance system has sometimes failed to detect vulnerabilities early. 7. Reforms and Future Role of IMF in Currency Stability To remain effective, the IMF has been evolving: 7.1 Governance Reforms Rebalancing voting shares to give emerging markets (China, India, Brazil) greater influence. 7.2 Strengthening Surveillance Using big data, AI, and real-time monitoring of capital flows to identify risks faster. 7.3 Flexible Lending Programs Introduction of new instruments like Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Short-term Liquidity Line (SLL) tailored to different needs. 7.4 Role in Digital Currencies With the rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and cryptocurrencies, the IMF is working on guidelines to ensure they do not destabilize global exchange systems. 7.5 Climate and Currency Stability Climate change can create macroeconomic instability (through disasters, commodity shocks). IMF is incorporating climate-related risks into its surveillance and lending frameworks, linking them indirectly to currency stability. 8. Case Studies: IMF and Currency Stability 8.1 Argentina (2001 and 2018 Crises) Severe currency depreciation due to unsustainable debt and capital flight. IMF provided large bailout packages, though critics argue reforms worsened recession. 8.2 Iceland (2008 Financial Crisis) IMF intervened after banking collapse led to currency freefall. Its assistance stabilized the krona and allowed recovery. 8.3 Sri Lanka (2022 Crisis) IMF provided assistance after the rupee collapsed due to debt and foreign exchange shortages. Reforms included fiscal restructuring and exchange rate flexibility. 9. Importance of IMF in Today’s Globalized World Globalization makes economies interdependent; currency fluctuations in one country can trigger contagion. Emerging markets with volatile currencies rely heavily on IMF assistance. Safe-haven role – IMF’s existence reassures markets that an international “lender of last resort” exists. Crisis manager – Whether it’s debt crises, pandemics, or geopolitical shocks, IMF acts as a stabilizer for currencies. Conclusion The IMF has been a cornerstone of the international monetary system since its inception. Its central mission of maintaining global currency stability has evolved over decades—from overseeing fixed exchange rates under Bretton Woods to managing floating rates and responding to crises in a highly globalized world. Through surveillance, lending, technical assistance, and the issuance of SDRs, the IMF has consistently provided mechanisms to stabilize currencies during crises. While criticisms about conditionality, governance, and social impacts remain, the IMF continues to adapt to the challenges of a changing global economy. In the 21st century, as new threats emerge—from cryptocurrencies and capital flow volatility to climate shocks—the IMF’s role in global currency stability remains indispensable. Without such an institution, the risk of disorderly currency collapses, financial contagion, and global recessions would be far greater. Ultimately, the IMF stands not just as a financial institution but as a global cooperative framework that fosters trust, stability, and resilience in the world’s monetary system.
TVC:US10YEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Stock Market Crashes & Their Global ImpactIntroduction Stock markets are often described as the heartbeat of modern economies. They reflect investor confidence, corporate performance, and broader macroeconomic conditions. When markets rise steadily, optimism spreads across societies—businesses expand, jobs are created, and wealth grows. But when they crash, the opposite happens: wealth evaporates, panic sets in, and economies often spiral into recession or even depression. A stock market crash is typically defined as a sudden, dramatic decline in stock prices across major indexes, often accompanied by panic selling and loss of investor confidence. Crashes are not mere financial events; they ripple through entire economies, affecting employment, government policies, trade, and even geopolitical stability. This essay explores the history of major crashes, their causes, consequences, and the global impact they leave behind. It also discusses the lessons learned and whether crashes can be prevented—or if they are an unavoidable feature of capitalism. Understanding Stock Market Crashes A stock market crash differs from a normal market correction. A correction is usually a modest decline (around 10–20%), often seen as healthy after strong rallies. A crash, however, is sudden and severe, typically involving a drop of 20% or more in a very short time. Key characteristics of a crash include: Panic selling – Investors rush to liquidate holdings, driving prices down further. Liquidity crisis – Buyers disappear, making it difficult to sell assets at fair value. Systemic contagion – Losses spread to other sectors like banking, housing, and commodities. Psychological impact – Fear and loss of trust in financial systems exacerbate the downturn. Historical Stock Market Crashes 1. The Panic of 1907 Triggered by a failed attempt to corner the copper market, the 1907 crash caused bank runs across the U.S. The absence of a central bank made matters worse until J.P. Morgan personally intervened to provide liquidity. The crisis directly led to the creation of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1913. 2. The Great Depression (1929–1939) The crash of October 1929 is the most infamous. The Dow Jones lost almost 90% of its value from peak to trough. Banks failed, unemployment in the U.S. reached 25%, and global trade collapsed as protectionist tariffs rose. The Great Depression reshaped the global order and gave rise to both welfare capitalism and extreme political movements. 3. Black Monday (1987) On October 19, 1987, global markets lost trillions in value, with the Dow plunging 22% in a single day—the largest one-day percentage drop in history. Interestingly, the economic fundamentals were relatively strong, but computerized program trading amplified panic. This crash led to better circuit-breaker mechanisms. 4. Dot-Com Bubble (2000–2002) Fueled by excessive speculation in internet startups, tech stocks soared in the late 1990s. When profitability didn’t match expectations, the bubble burst, erasing $5 trillion in market value. Many companies went bankrupt, but survivors like Amazon and Google emerged stronger. 5. Global Financial Crisis (2008–2009) Triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble and subprime mortgages, this crash nearly collapsed the global banking system. Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy sent shockwaves worldwide. Governments had to bail out banks, and trillions were injected into economies. The aftershocks shaped global monetary policy for over a decade. 6. COVID-19 Pandemic Crash (2020) In March 2020, as the pandemic spread globally, markets experienced one of the fastest declines in history. Supply chains froze, oil prices collapsed, and entire economies went into lockdown. Central banks intervened with massive liquidity injections, and markets rebounded faster than expected, though inequality widened. Causes of Stock Market Crashes Speculative Bubbles – Excessive optimism leads investors to drive prices far beyond intrinsic values (e.g., tulip mania, dot-com bubble). Leverage & Debt – Borrowed money magnifies gains but also magnifies losses when markets turn. Banking Failures – Weak banking systems spread panic when liquidity dries up. Geopolitical Events – Wars, oil shocks, or political instability can trigger sudden sell-offs. Technological Factors – Automated trading systems can accelerate crashes. Psychological Herding – Fear and greed amplify movements, leading to irrational decisions. Economic & Social Consequences A market crash is not just numbers falling on screens; it creates real-world damage: Wealth Destruction – Households lose savings, pensions shrink, and corporate valuations collapse. Unemployment – Businesses cut back, leading to layoffs and wage stagnation. Banking Stress – Non-performing loans rise, banks tighten credit, stifling growth. Government Debt – States often borrow heavily to stabilize economies, leading to long-term fiscal challenges. Social Unrest – Rising inequality, poverty, and frustration often trigger protests and political upheaval. Shift in Global Power – Crashes can weaken one region while strengthening another (e.g., U.S. decline in 1930s, rise of Europe and later Asia). Global Ripple Effects Stock markets are interconnected; a crash in one major market spills over into others. Trade Decline: Reduced demand lowers imports/exports, hurting global supply chains. Currency Volatility: Investors flee to safe havens like gold, U.S. treasuries, or the Swiss franc. Capital Flight: Emerging markets often see massive outflows during global downturns. Policy Shifts: Central banks coordinate interventions, lowering rates and providing stimulus. Geopolitical Shifts: Crashes often weaken alliances, spark nationalism, or accelerate the rise of new powers. Case Study: 2008 Crisis Global Impact U.S.: Housing collapse, unemployment peaking at 10%, massive bailouts. Europe: Sovereign debt crises in Greece, Spain, and Italy. Asia: Export-driven economies like China saw slowed growth, but also emerged as stronger alternatives to Western dependence. Developing Nations: Suffered from falling commodity prices, reduced remittances, and currency instability. This showed how deeply integrated the global economy had become. Lessons Learned Stronger Regulation – The 2008 crash showed the need for tighter oversight of derivatives and shadow banking. Central Bank Coordination – Global central banks now act in unison to stabilize liquidity. Risk Management – Investors are more cautious about leverage and speculative excess. Diversification – Global portfolios help mitigate region-specific risks. Psychological Awareness – Understanding behavioral finance helps explain panic-driven moves. Are Crashes Preventable? History suggests crashes are not entirely preventable because markets are built on human behavior, which swings between fear and greed. However, their severity can be managed: Circuit breakers and trading halts prevent extreme panic. Transparent regulation reduces systemic risk. Global cooperation cushions shocks. Investor education lowers herd mentality. The Future of Stock Market Crashes Looking ahead, new risks emerge: Algorithmic & AI Trading – Speed of trading could magnify volatility. Cryptocurrency Integration – Digital assets could create new bubbles. Climate Change – Extreme weather could disrupt industries, creating market shocks. Geopolitical Tensions – Trade wars, cyber conflicts, and resource scarcity may fuel future crises. While markets will continue to experience crashes, societies are better equipped to handle them—though not immune. Conclusion Stock market crashes are dramatic reminders of the fragility of financial systems. They destroy wealth, disrupt lives, and alter the trajectory of nations. From the Great Depression to COVID-19, each crash has reshaped global finance, politics, and society. Yet, paradoxically, crashes also pave the way for renewal. They expose weaknesses, force reforms, and create opportunities for resilient businesses to thrive. In this sense, crashes are not just destructive—they are part of capitalism’s self-correcting cycle. For investors, policymakers, and citizens, the lesson is clear: crashes cannot be avoided, but their impact can be mitigated through preparation, diversification, and prudent regulation. The challenge is not to eliminate volatility but to ensure societies are resilient enough to withstand it.
BSE:SENSEXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
WULF / 4hAccording to prior analyses (updated since August 18), NASDAQ:WULF has been consolidating in an corrective structure📉 as Wave (iv) , which now appears to be nearing completion. An impulsive advance of approximately 33% in Wave (v) is expected , likely unfolding as a continuation of the extension in Minute Wave iii(circled) toward a new high. As depicted on the 4H chart above, once the ongoing Wave (iv) correction is complete, a final potential surge of up to 77%📈 may lie ahead during September . Technical Target >> 14.84 🎯 #CryptoStocks #WULF #BTCMining #BitcoinMining #BTC NASDAQ:WULF CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITSTAMP:BTCUSD MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN
NASDAQ:WULF
by ElliottChart
SP500 Structure Shift: Sell Zone ActivatedHey Guys 👋 I’ve prepared an SP500 analysis for you. Since the market structure has shifted, I’ll be opening a sell position from my designated sell zone. 📌 Entry: 6,474.90 📌 Stop: 6,522.12 🎯 TP1: 6,459.79 🎯 TP2: 6,425.80 🎯 TP3: 6,371.54 RISK REWARD - 2,21 Every single like you send my way is a huge source of motivation for me to keep sharing these analyses. Big thanks to everyone supporting with a like 🙏
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by TraderTilki
22
XAUUSD – Intraday Outlook📌 Key Zones: Support 1: 3550 – 3548 Support 2: 3531 (only if 3550 fails) Resistance: 3563 – 3570 📊 London Open Expectation: Price may dip into 3550 – 3548 zone before reversing upward. A successful bounce here should target 3563 – 3570. ⚠️ Risk Scenario: If 3550 support breaks with rejection, price could extend lower toward 3531 support zone. 🔑 Trading Bias: Buy dips near 3550 – 3548 for upside towards 3563 – 3570. Avoid chasing breakouts; wait for confirmation at key levels. Breakdown of 3550 cancels bullish idea → next support 3531.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Shivam_Bhanot
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 5, 2025 ———————————— Momentum • D1: Momentum has already turned bearish, suggesting that in the coming days we could see a corrective decline. Since today is Friday, be cautious of potential liquidity sweeps before the weekly close. • H4: Momentum is still rising, but with about 1 hour left before the current H4 candle closes, it is likely to enter the overbought zone, which would increase the risk of reversal. • H1: Momentum is weakening and preparing to reverse, showing that the current upward move is losing strength. ———————————— Wave Structure • D1: No major changes. A corrective decline is likely in the coming days. The depth of this correction will help us identify the exact wave structure. For now, patience is needed until D1 momentum reaches the oversold area and new patterns form. • H4: Price still seems to be in the corrective phase of wave iv (purple). With H4 momentum about to enter the overbought zone, I still expect a downward move to complete wave iv before the market continues upward into wave v (purple). • H1: We can see an ABC (green) structure forming, as mentioned yesterday. However, because it developed quite quickly, it could also evolve into a Flat, Triangle, or Combination pattern. o Price is moving in a choppy, overlapping manner. o Combined with H4 momentum nearing overbought → it’s likely that wave B is forming, followed by a downward move to complete wave iv (purple). o If a Flat plays out, price could rise toward 3578 (or higher) before dropping back below that level. ———————————— Targets • Wave C: We need to wait for wave B to complete before setting more reliable targets. For now, keep yesterday’s target zones: 3498 – 3469. • Wave v (purple): No significant change compared to yesterday’s plan. ———————————— Trading Plan Buy Zone 1: 3500 – 3498 • SL: 3490 • TP1: 3524 Buy Zone 2: 3471 – 3469 • SL: 3459 • TP1: 3500
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Gold (XAUUSD) Intraday Analysis – Key Levels and Trading StrategMarket Overview Gold (XAUUSD) has shown strong bullish momentum since late August, but the current structure reveals signs of exhaustion around the 3,565 – 3,570 zone, marked as a Weak High. Price action on the H1 timeframe shows multiple Break of Structure (BOS) and liquidity sweeps, suggesting a potential short-term correction before the next directional move. The EMA layers (20 – 50 – 100 – 200) remain supportive of the medium-term uptrend, yet sellers are defending the resistance zone aggressively. Key Support and Resistance Zones Major Resistance (Plan A): 3,565 – 3,570 (Weak High zone). Immediate Support: 3,538 – 3,540. Key Demand Zone (Plan B): 3,505 – 3,515 and deeper at 3,471. A confirmed break below 3,471 could extend the retracement toward 3,440 – 3,400. Trading Plans Scalp Sell (Plan A – Primary Setup) Entry: 3,566.xx – 3,555.xx Stop Loss: 3,570 Take Profit: 3,525 → extend toward 3,505 Rationale: Shorting from resistance, capitalizing on liquidity above Weak High. Buy the Dip (Plan B – Secondary Setup) Entry: 3,505 – 3,515 or 3,471 Stop Loss: below 3,460 Take Profit: 3,538 → 3,565 Rationale: Buying from strong demand zones aligned with EMA confluence. Conclusion Gold is likely to consolidate around 3,550 before retesting the 3,565 – 3,570 resistance. Scalp selling from the upper zone offers the best short-term opportunity, while a deeper retracement toward 3,505 – 3,471 could provide an attractive buy-the-dip setup in line with the broader bullish trend. Stay alert to intraday price reactions and manage risk carefully. Save this outlook for reference throughout today’s session to track how price develops.
FX:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 5, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Jobs Friday = make or break. Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment, and wages will lock in Fed expectations into September. 📉 Positioning light ahead of NFP — futures choppy as traders square books. 💬 Consumer sentiment wraps the week — expectations on inflation and spending will color the tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Unemployment Rate (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Average Hourly Earnings (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Trade (Jul) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #jobs #labor #Fed #economy #bonds #Dollar
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao