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ADA: Looking for a setupADA is slowly setting up for a move. Looking for a short term retrace to setup an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Right now, 1 hour RSI has bearish divergence. This dip will reset the momentum and should setup for a big move. There will be several degrees of wave 3 starting at this time, so, I would expect something rather explosive. If it not coming out of the gate blazing, then something would not be right. It would be easier to set a stop loss. Right now, I will deploy a bit more capital on the upcoming dip to make the bag heavier.
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by mukit1
Crack-Up BOOM and BUSTHey everyone, Wave-Tech here. Join me on a historic journey as I reconstruct the Grand Super Cycle while diving into the historic and captivating world of Elliott Wave Theory! This was to have been my maiden video cast—it didn't turn out as well as I hoped. Time got away from me, and the video ended abruptly before I could finish. Rather than redoing it, I decided to keep the first and most authentic take intact for better or worse. I made it private so that I could review it before publishing; however, I let too much time pass and was unable to change the setting back to public from private . You can view the private video HERE : The accompanying text is beneath the chart below: In the simplest terms, Elliott Wave Theory is a measure of market psychology and sentiment coupled with Fibonnaci ratios designed to create a structural framework for determining at what stage of advance or decline a given market is in. The basic premise for inherent advance and progress is three steps forward (impulse waves 1, 3, and 5) and two steps back (corrective waves 2 and 4). According to Elliott, there are 9 degrees of trend, all of which are fractal in nature. The largest is the Grand Super Cycle, and the smallest is the Sub-Minuette. Today, we’re exploring a yearly bar chart of the S&P, which covers trends at the Super Cycle and Cycle degree, revealing the pending culmination of a Grand Super Cycle—a colossal trend spanning centuries. Buckle up as we unravel the rhythms of the stock market's epic ride! The SUPER CYCLE: Let’s start with the big picture: five waves of advance at the Super Cycle degree. According to Ralph Nelson Elliott, with the sole exception of the GRAND SUPER CYCLE, the Super Cycle is the largest of all trends, a monumental set of impulsive and corrective waves that will set the tone and punctuate Grand Super Cycle terminals for Centuries to come—or at least through the fall of Empires or Civilizations. Each of these waves tells a story of growth, correction, and renewal. The current Grand Super Cycle has been shaping markets and Nations for over a century. We can see this Grand Super Cycle unfolding in waves of Super Cycle dimension. WAVE COUNTS: The chart highlights five waves at Super Cycle degree: the first lasted 52 years with a gain of more than 1000%, the third stretched 68 years with a staggering 33,336% gain, and the fourth, a shorter 9-year span, saw a -57.06% loss, which marked the GFC low in 2009. We are currently in the fifth Super Cycle wave, which is still unfolding and could mark the end of this Grand Super Cycle at any moment. In contrast, the post-GFC "everything bubble" Crack-Up BOOM can persist to the upper trend channel boundaries noted near 18k and 35k. Zooming in, we encounter the fractal Cycle degree waves comprising Super Cycle (III). Take Cycle Wave III and Cycle V, both 26 years long, delivering gains of 1,191% and 2,313% respectively. And from the Super Cycle wave (IV) low in 2009, we are 16 years into Super Cycle Wave V, with an impressive 872% gain as of September 5, 2025. This current wave could easily extend further, but its length is sufficient to suggest we may be nearing a pivotal turning point that might end the Grand Super Cycle with a sufficient black swan trigger. The Fourth Turning: Now, let’s touch briefly on the 85-year cycle, a rhythm that syncs beautifully with the concept of the "fourth turning"—a period of crisis and transformation. The last one kicked off in 1945, post-World War II, ushering in the rules-based order that America and the West thrived in—an order that is arguably destined to end by 2030 if it hasn't already. This turning cycle hints at a historic shift on the horizon, or one that is currently already underway. THE RSI: Glance at the lower pane of the chart, where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a tale of caution. Since 1955, we’ve endured 16 long years of multiple bearish divergences—times when the market’s price and momentum didn’t align, signaling trouble ahead. I like to call this the bearish divergences that cried wolf for nearly a generation! Note that it wasn't until the RSI closed beneath the mid-line that the sell-off into the 1974 low registered an oversold reading. We saw the RSI fail again upon the new highs in 1993-94 following the highs in 1987. 1995 kicked off the infamous five years of irrational exuberance, which led to the tech bubble peak and subsequent crash into the 2002 low. Not to be outdone by the 2000 blow-off top, the 2002 low ushered in yet another five years of irrational exuberance, culminating right in time for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This time, the RSI finally got it right on the first go round. Currently, against the highs printed in 2021, the V-shaped snap-back rally following the mini bear market of 2022, the move to new highs in 2024 has flagged a bona fide bearish divergence. It will be interesting to see how the RSI looks after the close of 2025. These divergences are like red flags, whispering that the party might not last forever, even though it may. Price Targets: So, where might this Super Cycle Wave V take us in terms of price? Let’s apply a Fibonacci projection—specifically, where Wave V equals 4.236 of Wave IV. Doing the math, from the Wave IV base at 666.79, we’re looking at a target of around 7,226-7,233 on the S&P 500. That’s only about 10% upside from recent highs—not quite the blow-off top of 18K or 35K, but a target to approach with eyes wide open. Now, let’s consider a sobering scenario: If Super Cycle Wave V ends here, or north of 7K, signaling the close of Grand Super Cycle ONE, history might repeat itself with a bear market akin to 1929’s four-year plunge. An 86% decline could drop the S&P to around 917—still well above the Wave IV low of 666.79, another common target, but a stark reminder of the cycles’ power. In Closing: Thank you all for listening and reading if you've gotten this far. This was my first video. I got blindsided and cut off by the time constraint, so I apologize for the abrupt ending. The market’s cycles and waves are a dance of numbers and human spirit, and we’ve only scratched the surface of their grandeur and implications. Stay curious, stay informed, and keep your life vests on while riding these waves, okay!
SP:SPX
by Wave-Tech
Monthly Forex Analysis: GBP/USD – Issue 210 (Free Access)The analyst predicts that the GBP/USD rate will increase within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend ___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
$USELESS breakout in the early stages, UNDER horizontal resis...$USELESS on 4-HOUR chart is attempting a breakout from the same falling wedge pattern as highlighted in my previous post with 1-DAY chart. We are facing a double support, both horizontal (previous rejection areas/supply zones) and from that mentioned Fair Value Gap from 1D. Both levels have to be conquered to open a long position so best to set a trigger. Volumes solid during this attempt. Next post too zoom in on the 1-HR chart👽💙
Long
by ColdBloodedCharter
OGUSDT – W Pattern Add-on SignalOGUSDT – W Pattern Add-on Signal In early September, I shared with my group that OGUSDT was one of the must-watch plays for this cycle. Alongside OG, we were also tracking HIFI, YGG, LINK, SOL, ETH, and others. With an automated data analysis system, signals like these can be detected and alerted in a clear and structured way. OG formed a W-pattern base at the $3 level on June 16, 2025. A pullback signal then appeared on August 28, 2025, with an entry around $13. After a short rally, on September 8, 2025, the daily timeframe confirmed a new upward leg, entering a bullish cycle toward the $24+ zone. This entire process was captured automatically, operating 24/7.
Long
by rainbow_sniper
GBPJPY – The Road to Weekly Liquidity🔹 On the Weekly, the path toward liquidity around 203.80 is clear – no major obstacles in sight. 🔹 On the Daily, we don’t see any FVGs that could hold back price from reaching that liquidity zone. 🔹 On the 4H, a clean FVG provides a beautiful entry to continue this bullish trend. 📌 Setup: 🎯 Target: Weekly liquidity at 203.80 🛑 Stop Loss: Minimum at 199.67 (lowest point of the 3-candle pattern) ✅ Bias: Bullish continuation ⚡ Watching closely how price reacts around 200.00 – as long as momentum holds, bulls may drive price to sweep that weekly liquidity above.
Long
by StriveCapital
US30 Will Explode! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for US30 below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 45818 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 45988 Safe Stop Loss - 45735 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Latest Gold Forecast and Analysis for September 15th: I. Core Viewpoint The gold market is expected to remain volatile and relatively strong at high levels next week (especially before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision). The bullish trend remains intact, but there is a risk of a short-term technical correction. The market's focus will be entirely on the Fed's interest rate decision and subsequent policy guidance, which may determine whether gold prices reach new highs or experience a deep correction. II. Fundamental Analysis Expectations of a Strengthened Rate Cut (Major Bullish Factor): Core Driver: Recent US economic data, particularly labor market data (a sharp increase in initial jobless claims, weak non-farm payroll data, and downward revisions to historical employment data), have reinforced market expectations that the Fed is about to begin a cycle of rate cuts. Market Logic: Expectations of a rate cut have led to a weakening US dollar and lower US Treasury yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold and significantly boosting its appeal. This is the fundamental reason that has driven gold prices higher for four consecutive weeks and reached a new record high. Next Week's Key Event: The Fed's Interest Rate Decision (Key Uncertainty): The market has largely priced in the expectation of a "first rate cut" next week. The key to the decision lies not in whether or not to cut interest rates, but in the Fed's "dot plot" and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Potentially bullish scenario: If the Fed sends clear dovish signals (such as confirming a path of multiple rate cuts this year), gold prices could surge directly and break through all-time highs. Potentially bearish scenario: If the Fed takes a hawkish stance (such as expressing concerns about inflation, suggesting a slower pace of rate cuts), this could lead to a "realization of expectations, exhaustion of positive news" market, triggering large-scale profit-taking and a deep correction in gold prices. III. Technical Analysis Daily Chart - Bullish Trend Bull market intact: Gold prices are trading above all major moving averages (MAs), and the MAs are in a perfect bullish alignment, providing strong trend support. Key Support: The $3,600 mark has transformed from resistance to key support. Further support lies in the $3,550-3,530 area (near the MA20 level and the previous consolidation zone). Target and Risk: Technical patterns support a move to higher prices, but be wary of news-driven reversals. 4-Hour Chart - Beware of a short-term pullback risk. Divergence Signal: The MACD indicator may form a death cross, a warning sign that upward momentum is weakening and diverging from the record high, suggesting a need for a short-term technical correction. Short-Term Support: The 3630-3625 area is the first key line of defense for bulls in the near term. If broken, a further pullback to the 3600-3580 area (the intersection of the 4-hour MA60 and the daily MA5) is possible. Short-Term Resistance: The 3655-3660 area is immediate resistance, while the historical high of 3674 is a strong psychological resistance level. IV. Trading Strategy Recommendations Overall Approach: Ahead of the Fed's decision, the market may be cautious, with high-level fluctuations prevalent. In terms of operation, you should be cautious in chasing high prices, mainly arrange long orders after a pullback, and try shorting with a light position at key resistance levels. Long Strategy (Long on Dips): Ideal Long Zone: After a pullback to the 3630-3625 support range and stabilization, consider a light long position. Conservative Long Zone: If the pullback deepens, look for dip buying opportunities in the 3600-3580 range. Target: Target 3650 or 3660. After a breakout, hold and pursue new highs. Stop-Loss: Place $6-8$ below the entry level. Short Strategy (Short on Highs): Opportunities: If the rebound to the 3655-3660 resistance range stagnates, or if the price retests the historical highs of 3670-3674 and fails to break through, consider a light short position. Target: Target 3640 or 3630. Stop-Loss: Place above 3675. Note: This strategy is intended only for technical pullbacks and is a short-term contrarian trade. Maintain a light position and maintain a strict stop-loss. 5. Key Risk Warnings Federal Reserve Decision Risk: This is the biggest source of uncertainty next week and could trigger significant market volatility. Be sure to manage your positions carefully. Technical Sell-Off Risk: Gold prices have risen significantly this year, accumulating significant profit-taking. Any disruption could trigger a technical sell-off, leading to a larger-than-expected correction.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FX_Gold_Mastermind
ZMTechnical Analysis (Daily Chart – ZM, NASDAQ): The stock is currently trading around $83.98, slightly below the local resistance at $85.12. A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed (A–B–C–D), and the recent breakout to the upside suggests potential bullish continuation. The buy zone is marked near $80, with a protective stop-loss at $69. This provides a favorable risk–reward setup. The first major resistance and profit-taking zone is highlighted at $110.35 – $110.83, which is the initial target for this bullish move. Multiple moving averages (short- and mid-term) are turning upward and crossing above the long-term black moving average, confirming a shift toward bullish momentum. As long as the price holds above $77–80 support, the bullish scenario remains valid. A breakdown below $69 would invalidate this setup and signal renewed downside risk. Outlook: Short-term: Potential retest of the breakout area (~$80) before resuming the upward move. Medium-term: Bullish bias toward the $110 zone. Risk management is crucial—tighten stops if the stock struggles around $85–90. 📌 Summary: Current trend shows a bullish breakout from consolidation. Entry is favorable around $80, stop-loss at $69, with the first target zone between $110.35 and $110.83.
NASDAQ:ZMLong
by IbrahimTarek
NZDCAD – Wave Analysis OutlookNZDCAD has recently completed a complex corrective structure and rebounded strongly from the 0.8070 region, signaling the possibility of a developing base. According to wave analysis, the pair may continue unfolding higher, with projections toward the 0.83 – 0.84 zone, and potentially extending into the 0.85 – 0.86 handle in the coming phases. At this stage, the key focus is on whether price consolidates around the current level. Such a pause would provide a potential platform for the next upward leg within the broader corrective sequence. 👉 I’ll be watching for buy setups if price consolidates at the current level. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This outlook is based on my personal wave analysis and shared for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Long
by saravanarm
MCD produces ending diagonal to terminate 2020 advanceMcDonald’s (MCD) appears to be in the late stages of a long-term Elliott Wave advance, with the final 5th (5) wave nearing exhaustion inside a rising wedge pattern. Momentum divergences and the neckline support around $285 highlight growing risk of a breakdown. If the wedge fails, a corrective phase could unfold, targeting the 210–240 region where prior 4th wave support lies. Until then, upside is capped near $330–340, making the risk-reward skewed toward caution at current levels.
NYSE:MCDShort
by MacroWaveTheorist
The Exhaustion Gap: BIIB's Momentum Failure at Resistance## Risk Management Framework Entry: 144.86 (Point 4) Stop Loss: 152.92 (8.92% risk) - Above Point 2 highs Target: 91.99 (35.88% reward) - Major Chaos Theory support zone Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:4.02 Position Advantages: • Price at mathematical resistance (VWAP 2-sigma) • Momentum exhaustion confirmed • Multiple divergence layers • Clear# The Exhaustion Gap: BIIB's Momentum Failure at Resistance ## Seller Dominance Certified (Points 1→3) Market structure delivered a clear verdict when Point 2 broke and held below Point 1 , establishing proven seller territory. This breakdown culminated in Point 3 , confirming sellers' control. Now at Point 4 , price has returned to these proven sellers' domain - but with a critical weakness. ## The Exhaustion Gap Phenomenon What makes Point 4 exceptional isn't just the return to resistance - it's HOW price got there: • Price: Managed to reach higher highs • RSI/MFI: Remained oversold with lower highs This creates what I call the "Exhaustion Gap" - when price climbs but momentum can't follow. It's like a runner reaching the finish line by crawling rather than sprinting. The divergence reveals buyers exhausted themselves just getting back to resistance. ## VWAP Second Deviation Kiss Anchoring VWAP at Point 1 shows Point 4 precisely touching the 2nd standard deviation . This represents: • A 95% statistical extreme • Mathematical resistance confluence • Typical reversal zone when combined with exhaustion When price reaches 2-sigma resistance but momentum indicators show exhaustion rather than strength, the probability of rejection increases dramatically. ## Bollinger Band Triple Confirmation Price is piercing the upper Bollinger Band on multiple timeframes: • Daily chart pierce • 4-hour chart pierce confirming intraday exhaustion • Historical pattern shows sharp reversals from BB extremes When multiple timeframes show Bollinger Band exhaustion simultaneously, it creates a high-probability reversal signal. ## Chaos Theory Zone Analysis The Chaos Theory indicator shows multiple resistance zones clustered around current levels: • Immediate resistance at 147-150 zone • "Waiting for validation" signals throughout the range • Zones indicate high probability of at minimum a short-term downturn These mathematical zones align perfectly with our technical resistance, adding another layer of confluence. ## Second Degree Divergence You've identified a bearish bar indicating lower timeframe divergence - essentially a divergence within a divergence. This multi-layered weakness suggests: • Intraday momentum failing • Daily momentum failing • Multiple timeframes aligning bearishly ## The Power Dynamics Theory Your observation about the blue line connecting three points is intriguing: • Previous high had weak pushdown • Point 2 had moderate selling • Point 4 could see more powerful selling This progression suggests sellers gaining confidence with each test, opposite of the typical weakening pattern. ## Risk Management Framework Entry: 144.86 (Point 4) Stop Loss: 152.92 (8.92% risk) - Above Point 2 highs Target: 91.99 (35.88% reward) - Major Chaos Theory support zone Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:4.02 Position Advantages: • Price at mathematical resistance (VWAP 2-sigma) • Momentum exhaustion confirmed • Multiple divergence layers • Clear risk definition above proven resistance • Chaos zones validate both entry and target levels ## The Technical Narrative This setup presents a rare alignment where: 1. Price reached resistance without momentum 2. Statistical extremes coincide with structural resistance 3. Volume patterns suggest distribution 4. Multiple timeframes show weakness The "Exhaustion Gap" between price achievement and momentum failure often marks significant reversals. --- Bottom Line: When price manages to reach resistance but momentum indicators remain oversold, it reveals exhausted buyers making a last stand. Combined with VWAP extremes, volume divergences, and multi-layer weakness, this creates a high-probability short setup where the rally appears to be running on fumes.
NASDAQ:BIIBShort
by jacesabr_real
Ethereum Road Ahead of September 17thGood morning. As I wrote in my previous post, this is my first time here. If you like it, please subscribe and support the post. Weekends are a good time for market makers, when the market is very weak. Before pushing the price up, they need to collect liquidity by hitting long stop-losses, so that no one stands in the way of growth after a possible rate cut. All the major short positions above have already been closed. Now it’s time to move down. The extreme downside target is $4,200. Market makers don’t necessarily have to push it all the way there—they may stop earlier. It all depends on whether long traders panic and start closing their positions, or keep holding on until the “bitter end.” The market should always be analyzed in real time, not by “fortune-telling on daisies.” Please don’t forget to subscribe and support my post. That will determine whether it makes sense for me to keep writing further. Wishing you a great weekend and all the best!
Short
by DiesZeroNow
Will gold experience a deep correction on September 15th? I. Core View Gold has entered a period of high-level consolidation after hitting a record high, with the overall bullish trend remaining unchanged. The market is digesting recent gains and preparing for the crucial Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision next week. It is expected that gold prices will maintain strong fluctuations before the decision, and the final direction will depend on the clarity of the interest rate cut signal given by the Federal Reserve. II. Fundamental Analysis: Core Bullish Factor: Expectations of a Rate Cut Continue to Strengthen Economic Data Support: The latest surge in US initial jobless claims highlights signs of labor market weakness, providing justification for the Fed to cut rates and serving as the core driver of gold prices. Market pricing: The market is highly convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time next week. This expectation continues to suppress the US dollar and provide a breeding ground for gold prices to rise. Added Uncertainty: Inflation Data Surpasses Expectations The US Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% year-on-year in August, exceeding expectations and hitting a seven-month high. This set of data forms a "contradictory" combination with the weak employment data. Next week's biggest focus: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The key lies in the "dot plot": More important than the rate cut itself, the Fed's dot plot will reveal officials' forecast for the path of interest rates for the rest of the year and into 2025. Any unexpected dovish (implying more rate cuts) or hawkish (implying a slower rate cut cycle) stance will cause significant volatility in gold prices. III. Technical Analysis: Consolidation at high levels, trend unbroken. Daily Chart: Bullish trend remains stable. Gold prices remain stable above the 5-day moving average, a sign of a strong trend. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, providing strong support for prices. Key Support: The 3620-3615 area (previous correction low and near the 5-day moving average). As long as gold prices hold steady in this area, the bullish trend remains valid. Upside Target: A break above the historical high of 3675 would further open up upside potential, with the next target potentially reaching 3710 or even higher. 4-Hour Chart: Range-bound, Awaiting a Direction The chart shows gold prices consolidating within the 3615-3665 range, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing, suggesting the market is accumulating momentum and awaiting a breakout. Short-term Support: 3630 (intraday support), 3615 (strong support & bull-bear watershed). Short-term Resistance: 3660-3665 (upper limit of the range), 3675 (all-time high). IV. Trading Strategy Recommendations Overall Approach: Prior to the Fed's decision, we recommend a range-bound approach, prioritizing long positions on pullbacks and shorting on rebounds. Avoid chasing highs and selling lows at mid-price levels. Bull Strategy (Primary): Ideal Long Position: After a pullback to the 3630-3620 support area stabilizes, you can enter long positions in batches. Key Defensive Level: Below 3615. A break below this level could shatter the short-term bullish trend, requiring a stop-loss and reassessment. Target: Look towards 3660, 3665, and after breaking through, hold and look up to 3675 or even higher. Short Strategy (Assisted): Opportunity: If a rebound to the 3660-3665 range fails to effectively break through, or if a retest of the 3675 high fails, try a short position with a small position. Target: Targeting 3640 or 3630. Attribute: This is a short-term contrarian trade, simply aiming for a technical pullback. Be sure to enter and exit quickly and set a strict stop-loss (e.g., above 3675). V. Key Risks Federal Reserve Decision Risk: This is the only and most significant risk event next week. Be wary of any hawkish surprises (such as the dot plot showing a reduction in the number of rate cuts this year) that may trigger large-scale profit-taking in the "good news is out" style. Data fluctuations: If other important economic data are released before or after the resolution, market volatility will also be amplified. Technical selling pressure: Gold prices have risen sharply this year, and any news that exceeds expectations may trigger technical selling.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Golden_Compas
EURAUD Is Going Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for EURAUD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.764. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.738. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
CADJPY Will Grow! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for CADJPY. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 106.659. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 107.622 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
BTC at 117k–118k — Scenarios & invalidations__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is trading in the 113k–118k upper range, retesting the 117k–118k supply with tactical bullish pressure while a heavy cap remains. The backdrop stays constructive as long as key supports hold, pending a true acceptance signal. Momentum: Bullish 📈 (tactical) below 117k–118k with intraday HH/HL; a clean acceptance above 117k–118k is still needed for continuation. Key levels: - Resistances (4H–1D) : 116,700–118,000 (zone), 124,277 (1D). - Supports (2H–W) : 115,000–115,600 (zone), 113,240 (4H), 111,956 (W). Volumes: Normal to moderate on HTF; very high on 1H during the push to ~116.9k — can fuel a breakout if confirmed. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H filter Up but bias NEUTRE VENTE ; 6H→15m NEUTRE ACHAT with breakout attempts below 117k–118k. 1H volume + 115k–115.6k defenses support attempts; losing 114.8k weakens the case. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE — macro caution contrasts with tactical momentum; favor confirmed breakouts and measured sizing. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: upper-range uptrend under 117k–118k; favor “buy dips / validate breakouts” while respecting invalidations. Global bias: NEUTRAL BUY while 115.0k–115.6k holds; invalidation : daily close < 113,240. Opportunities: - Buy pullback 116,00–116,10 with absorption; add above 116,70/117,00. - Breakout long: 4H acceptance > 117,00 then > 117,20 to target 117.6k–118k. - Tactical sell: strong rejection 117k–118k + 2H close < 115,80; add if 114,80 breaks. Risk zones / invalidations: - A break of 114,800 invalidates the tactical long bias and reopens 113,240. - Acceptance > 118,000 invalidates countertrend shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC (Sep 17–18): high odds of a 25 bps cut; guidance will steer risk appetite. - Flows/liquidity: stablecoin mints supportive; spot ETF flows rather muted. - Geopolitics: potential escalations — exogenous vol risk. Action plan: - Long (breakout) — Entry: held pullback 116.90–117.00 after 4H close > 117.00 / Stop: < 115.90 / TP1: 117.60 / TP2: 118.00 / TP3: 124,277 (if accepted > 118k). R/R approx : 2.0–3.0R depending on execution. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs cautious, LTFs energetic: intraday strength is pushing into a dense HTF ceiling. 1D/12H: Filter Up but bias NEUTRE VENTE ; reclaim above 113k is done, next step = acceptance 117k–118k to confirm trend continuation. 6H/4H/2H: Bias NEUTRE ACHAT ; HH/HL structure, buyers defending 115.0k–115.6k; flows/volume improving on 4H–2H. 1H/30m/15m: Up under 117k in a flag; 1H volume spike — a good catalyst, but confirmation above 117.0k/117.2k remains key. Major divergence: macro caution (HTF) vs intraday strength (LTF); this argues for confirmed entries and strict risk below 114.8k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ FOMC/liquidity and derivatives digestion frame the breakout attempt below 117k–118k. Macro events: Market prices a 25 bps cut at the next FOMC; guidance tone is pivotal. Global tilt is broadly dovish; geopolitics remains a volatility wildcard. Bitcoin analysis: Key 117k–118k resistance; holding > 113k–114k keeps the bullish structure. Spot ETF flows quiet; derivatives more directive; stablecoin mints and institutional presence are supportive. On-chain data: Balanced regime; confidence pivot near 114k; moderate basis, easing IV — fertile ground for breakouts if spot demand steps in. Expected impact: A dovish FOMC + steady flows would favor acceptance > 117k–118k ; disappointment risks rejection toward 115.6k then 113,240. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Market sits in an upper-range with tactical bullish pressure under 117k–118k. - Trend: tactically bullish while 115.0k–115.6k holds; confirmation requires acceptance > 117k–118k. - Prime setup: 4H breakout > 117.0k with a held pullback 116.9k–117.0k; invalidation < 115.90/114.80. - Macro: FOMC ahead; a cut + dovish guidance would bolster bulls. Stay disciplined: wait for confirmation above 117.2k or clean pullbacks toward 116k, and protect risk below 114.8k. ⚠️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali