CRUDE OIL REBOUND AHEAD|LONG|
โ
WTI OIL has tapped into the demand level after a sharp decline, showing signs of accumulation. A reaction from this discount area could drive price higher toward 61.10$, where liquidity above minor highs is resting. Time Frame 2H.
LONG๐
โ
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WTI
USOIL โ Buy SetupTimeframe: H1
Current price: 62.40 USD/barrel
Trade idea:
Buy USOIL 62.30โ62.40
๐ฏ Target: 63.90
๐ Stop loss: 61.74
๐ R:R โ 1:3
Technical basis:
Price retested the breakout trendline and held above SMA89 (bullish confirmation).
Strong rebound from Fib 0.236 zone (62.28).
Momentum building toward 63.9 resistance area.
Comment:
Short-term rebound expected after correction. Maintain buy bias while price >61.8.
WTI OIL Megaphone bottomed but 4H MA50 gives the signal.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Megaphone pattern since the August 18 Low and last Thursday made its latest Lower Low. The 4H RSI instantly rebounded along with the price, after turning oversold (<30.00).
This is technically the start of the pattern's new Bullish Leg. The last one confirmed its start after the price broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). If it does again, we will take it as a buy signal, targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci at $64.45.
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BRIEFING Week #40 : What could cause VIX>100Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
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CRUDE OIL Will Keep Falling! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL retested the horizontal supply area cleanly and is now forming a pullback, confirming Smart Moneyโs intent to continue distribution. Liquidity above recent highs is likely absorbed, with price expected to target 60.10$ to rebalance inefficiency and continue bearish flow.Time Frame 3H.
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Key pivot resists followed by breakdown (WTI Crude)Setup
Bearish. Breakdown
Bearish engulfing candle
Failure at key 65.0 pivot
Signal
Looking to sell while price holds below support-turned-resistance at 62.
(Watch for possible intraday fakeout above 62 before daily close lower)
Agree / disagree? Let me know - happy to discuss :)
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 60 (Wave 3).The price is still not reaching the target of 60. I decided to make a new forecast, slightly changing the labeling of waves, or rather their importance.
At this stage, as before, I think that the price will reach the area of the level 60 in the middle wave โ3โ.
This movement is the development of the big corrective wave โCโ. In general, the plan remains the same.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Oil prices extend losses on supply concernsOil prices extend losses on supply concerns
Oil prices slipped Thursday, extending last weekโs decline on oversupply worries and uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown. Expectations that OPEC+ may raise output by up to 500,000 bpd in November, along with forecasts of a potential glut, weighed on sentiment.
Geopolitical risks remain in focus, with the G7 vowing tighter controls on Russian oil and the U.S. set to aid Ukraine with intelligence for strikes on energy infrastructure. Still, Chinese stockpiling helped limit losses. Concerns over Russian supply disruptions and steady Chinese stockpiling provided some support, but U.S. data showing rising crude and fuel inventories added to bearish pressure.
Oil Playing Twister: Triple Bottom or Quadruple Pretzel?A Triple Bottom Walks Into a Barโฆ
Crude Oil (CL) has been busy doing something traders love and hate at the same time: building bottoms. First, it carved a neat Triple Bottom on the daily chart โ textbook stuff. Everyone lined up at 66.68 waiting for the breakout champagne to pop.
But what did price do? Instead of exploding higher, it slammed on the brakes and took a detour straight back to support. Typical CL โ always keeping traders on their toes.
Now weโre staring at the possibility of a Quadruple Bottom. Not a typo. Yes, they exist, but you donโt see them every day. Like spotting a unicorn in Times Square.
Why We Care About 66.68
That level isnโt just random. Itโs the line where:
The Triple Bottom neckline lives.
The Supertrend upper band hangs out.
And, conveniently, the breakeven of our options spread sits.
In other words: get above 66.68 and suddenly this setup has wings. Target? Around 70.63, where UFO resistance is waiting to greet us.
The Fun Part: Bull Call Spread
Instead of swinging a giant futures bat and risking unlimited pain, we play it smarter with a Bull Call Spread:
Buy the 65 Call (Nov-17)
Sell the 71 Call (Nov-17)
Pay about 1.75 points (โ $1,750 per standard spread, โ $175 if you go micro).
Thatโs it. Risk capped, reward mapped. Max loss? $1,750. Max gain? $4,250.
And yes, the breakeven isโฆ drumrollโฆ 66.8. Same line as the chart breakout. Love when math and pictures line up.
Plot Twist: Cheaper Now, Butโฆ
Hereโs the kicker: because price dipped back into support, the spread might actually be cheaper right now. Sounds good, right?
But thereโs a catch. Waiting for the breakout confirmation could make the spread pricier later, shrinking your reward-to-risk. Classic trading dilemma: do you want cheaper tickets with less confirmation, or more expensive tickets after the bouncer checks your ID?
Risk in 3 Sentences
Keep your trade size sane.
Donโt marry the setup if price dumps below the bottoms.
If CL rushes toward 70, take the money and run (or at least roll the short strike higher).
Bottom Line
Crude Oil is still building its base. Maybe itโs a Triple Bottom. Maybe it becomes the rare Quadruple Bottom collectors dream about. Either way, the play is the same: breakout above 66.68, aim for 70.63, and do it with a defined-risk Bull Call Spread that doesnโt keep you up at night.
Sometimes the market is dramatic. Thatโs why we trade it. ๐ญ
Want More Depth?
If youโd like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one:
๐ From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials
๐ From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained
๐ From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CRUDE OIL Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL taps into a horizontal demand area, showing strong bullish reaction. Liquidity beneath recent lows is swept, signalling smart money positioning for upside continuation.
-------------------
Stop Loss: 61.35$
Take Profit: 62.87$
Entry: 61.94$
Time Frame: 8H
-------------------
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USOIL continues to decline on oversupply concerns
Oil prices tumbled on oversupply fears as major producers ramped up output. Reuters reported that ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on October 5th, November production hikes could exceed the planned 137,000 barrels per day. The resumption of Kurdish oil exports and prospects of additional supply may further pressure prices.
USOIL extended its decline before consolidating within the 61.50โ63.00 range. The death cross of the EMAs points to a potential shift toward bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below the 61.50 support, the price could retreat toward 60.00. Conversely, if USOIL breaks above the 63.00 resistance, the price may advance toward 65.50.
WTI OIL Channel Up bottom buy signalWTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has almost touched the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of its September Channel Up, following a strong rejection (Bearish Led) just below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
With the 4H RSI entering its medium-term Buy Zone, we have a strong short-term buy signal at our hands. Our Target is $66.50, expecting a 1D MA200 test, below the 1.1 Fibonacci extension, below which the previous Higher High was priced.
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๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
WTI Crude Oil๐น Iโve marked the key resistance zones.
๐น If I see a reversal signal at any of these levels, Iโll go short.
๐น The breakout scenario is always valid tooโif a level breaks, Iโll take the trade in the direction of the market.
๐ซ No bias towards numbers, levels, or analysis.
โจ The key is to flow with the market, not fight it. If you try to stand against it, the market wonโt just take your moneyโit will crush your confidence too.
๐ฏ Weโre only a small part of a bigger picture. Stay flexible, stay unbiased.
30-minute USOIL Key Buy Zones AnalysisHello Guys,
Iโve prepared a USOIL analysis for you.
Iโm watching two buy zones on USOIL:
๐น First buy zone: 64.70
๐น Second buy zone: 64.35 or 64,00
From these levels, Iโll definitely open buy positions and take my shot.
๐ฏ Target level: 66.40
Every like is my biggest motivation to keep sharing these analyses.
Thanks to everyone supporting me!
WTI extends drop after 200 MA testAfter printing an inverted hammer off its 200-day average on Friday, we have seen a sharp slide in oil prices today.
Reports that the OPEC+ plans another increase to output in November is not helping the cause, with the market already fearful over excessive supply and weak demand growth.
Key support at 61.50 to 62.00 area was tested multiple times last week and it held. A break below that zone this week could be pivotal, if seen.
Resistance seen at 65.00 now, then the area between 66.50-67.00 - marking the 200 day MA.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Risk-Defined Bull Spread on CLIntroduction
Crude Oil has been carving out a compelling structure on the daily timeframe. The chart has formed a Triple Bottom pattern, a classic base-building formation that often precedes significant directional moves. As prices approach a critical resistance area, traders are watching closely for confirmation of a breakout.
Options provide a unique way to participate in such setups. Instead of buying futures outright โ which exposes the trader to potentially unlimited downside โ a Bull Call Spread allows participation with limited and predefined risk. Today, weโll explore how this strategy can be structured on WTI Crude Oil (CL) Options on Futures to target a move higher while keeping risk controlled.
Market Setup
Chart pattern: Triple Bottom on the daily timeframe.
Entry trigger: Breakout above 66.68, where the top line of the Triple Bottom coincides with the upper band of the Supertrend indicator.
Target: ~70.63, which aligns with both the Triple Bottom projected objective and a relevant UFO (UnFilled Orders) resistance area.
Trend context: A successful breakout here would not only complete the Triple Bottom pattern but also suggest a broader trend reversal on the daily chart.
This confluence of technical signals makes 66.68 a price level worth paying attention to.
The Strategy: Bull Call Spread
A Bull Call Spread involves buying one call option with a lower strike and simultaneously selling another call option with a higher strike, both with the same expiration.
Buy: CL Nov-17 65 Call (cost โ 2.77)
Sell: CL Nov-17 71 Call (credit โ 1.02)
Net debit (cost): โ 1.75 points
Since each CL options contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil, the cost of this spread is about $1,750 per spread (subject to commissions).
Why November 17?
The timing matches the behavior of prior Supertrend cycles. The longest green cycle shown on the chart lasted about 37 trading days. By selecting Nov-17 expiration, the position allows sufficient time for a breakout and follow-through, while not overpaying for excess time value.
Risk/Reward Profile
From the risk graph:
Maximum Profit: โ 4.25 points, or $4,250 per spread.
Maximum Loss: โ 1.75 points, or $1,750 per spread.
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: ~2.4:1.
Breakeven: ~66.8 (very close to breakout level).
The breakeven location is important: it aligns almost exactly with the breakout trigger on the chart. This means that if the technical pattern validates, the option structure begins to work immediately.
The reward-to-risk ratio above reflects the pricing available at the time of building the spread. If a trader waits for confirmation of the breakout before entering, option premiums may rise, making the Bull Call Spread slightly more expensive. In that case, the risk-to-reward ratio would be somewhat less favorable, though the trade-off is higher confirmation of the technical signal.
Trade Application
Entry trigger: Now, or confirmed breakout above 66.68 depending on trader style.
Target: ~70.63, aligning with the Triple Bottom projection and UFO resistance.
Stop-loss consideration: If prices fall back below the Triple Bottom lows, the breakout thesis would be invalidated.
Here, the options spread itself already caps the maximum loss at $1,750 per spread. Still, traders may choose to exit earlier if the chart setup fails, avoiding full risk.
The defined-risk nature of the spread helps enforce discipline, as the worst-case scenario is known from the outset.
Contract Specs & Margin Considerations
WTI Crude Oil contracts at CME come in two main forms:
Standard CL Contract: Represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil. A single point move = $1,000 P&L impact.
Micro CL Contract (MCL): Represents 100 barrels of crude oil. A single point move = $100 P&L impact.
Both contracts offer powerful ways to trade Crude Oil, and traders also have access to options on the Micro CL contract. This means the same Bull Call Spread structure can be applied with much smaller capital outlay. Instead of ~$1,750 risk per spread with the standard CL options, the risk would be about $175 per spread using MCL options.
The availability of Micro contracts and options provides traders with greater flexibility to tailor exposure to account size and risk tolerance, while still benefiting from the same strategic advantages.
Margin requirements vary depending on the broker and clearing firm, but options spreads like this one are far more capital-efficient compared to holding outright futures. The premium paid becomes the required margin ($1,750 or $175 in this case) as it defines the total risk, without margin calls tied to daily fluctuations.
Risk Management
The hallmark of this Bull Call Spread is defined risk. Unlike a naked long call, where premium decay can erode value quickly, the short 71 Call helps reduce the upfront cost and lowers time decay exposure.
Key considerations:
Position sizing: Limit risk per trade to a fraction of total trading capital.
Time decay management: If the move happens quickly, consider taking profits early instead of holding until expiration.
Adjustment potential: If CL approaches 70 quickly, traders may roll the short call higher to extend potential gains.
Risk management is not just about setting stops; itโs also about designing positions where the worst-case scenario is tolerable before the trade is entered. This Bull Call Spread embodies that principle.
Conclusion
The WTI Crude Oil market is at a pivotal point. With a Triple Bottom base, a breakout above 66.68 could carry prices toward the 70.63 region, where unfilled orders and technical projections converge.
A Bull Call Spread on the Nov-17 expiration offers a structured way to engage with this potential move. It balances opportunity with defined risk, aligning the technical chart setup with the capital efficiency of options on futures.
As always, this is an educational case study designed to highlight how options can be used to structure trades around market scenarios.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
USOIL: 70$ BREAKOUT ROCKET FUELED! Black Gold Rally ๐ข๏ธ USOIL: 70$ BREAKOUT ROCKET FUELED! Black Gold Rally ๐
Current Price: $65.465 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 โฐ
๐ INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days)
๐ฏ BULLISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: $65.20 - $65.60 ๐
Stop Loss: $64.80 ๐
Target 1: $66.50 ๐ฏ
Target 2: $67.30 ๐
๐ฏ BEARISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: $65.80 - $66.20 ๐
Stop Loss: $66.60 ๐
Target 1: $64.70 ๐ฏ
Target 2: $64.00 ๐
๐ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN
๐ KEY INDICATORS STATUS:
RSI (14): 59.4 โก Bullish Momentum Zone
Bollinger Bands: Mid-Band Breakout ๐ฅ
VWAP: $65.35 - Acting as Springboard ๐ช
EMA 50: $64.80 โ
Golden Cross Setup
Volume: Institutional Interest Rising ๐
๐ WAVE ANALYSIS:
Elliott Wave: Wave 3 Impulse Loading ๐
Fibonacci Target: $68.50 (161.8%) ๐ฏ
๐ HARMONIC PATTERNS:
Bullish Bat Completion at $64.90 โจ
ABCD Pattern targeting $67.20 ๐
โ๏ธ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks)
๐ BULLISH TARGETS:
Psychological: $70.00 ๐
Weekly Resistance: $68.80 ๐
Gann Level: $69.25 โญ
๐ BEARISH INVALIDATION:
Weekly Support: $63.50 โ ๏ธ
Critical Break: $62.00 ๐จ
๐ญ MARKET STRUCTURE:
Trend: Ascending Triangle ๐ช
Momentum: Energy Building ๐ฅ
Wyckoff Phase: Accumulation End ๐
Ichimoku: Bullish Cloud Entry ๐ข
โฝ OIL MARKET DYNAMICS:
Supply Cuts: OPEC+ Extensions ๐ข๏ธ
Demand Growth: Winter Season ๐จ๏ธ
Inventory Draws: Bullish Data ๐
Geopolitical Premium: Risk-On โ๏ธ
โก RISK MANAGEMENT:
Max Risk per Trade: 2% ๐ก๏ธ
R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:2 โ๏ธ
Breakout Confirmation: $66.00 hold ๐
๐ FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS:
EIA Reports Supporting Bulls ๐
Middle East Tensions Premium ๐
China Demand Recovery Signs ๐ญ
US Dollar Weakness Helping ๐ต
๐ฅ CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH:
Breakout Zone: $66.00-$66.30 ๐ฅ
Support Cluster: $65.00 | $64.50 | $64.00 ๐ก๏ธ
Resistance: $66.50 | $67.50 | $68.00 ๐ง
๐ฏ FINAL VERDICT:
WTI primed for $70 EXPLOSIVE RALLY! ๐
Black Gold showing institutional love! ๐
Supply-demand imbalance = bullish fuel! โฝ
Trade Management: Buy dips above $65.00 ๐ฐ
Breakout Watch: $66.30 decisive level! ๐
---
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: Commodity trading carries high risk. Use appropriate position sizing. Educational analysis only.
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
๐ Follow Oil Market Updates | ๐ฌ Drop Your $70 Oil Timeline
BRIEFING Week #39 : The Turning Point is HereHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Strong Intraday Confirmation
A quick follow-up for the yesterday's analysis on WTI Crude Oil.
The price went up as I predicted.
The market managed to violate a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern
on an hourly time frame, providing a strong intraday confirmation.
The price will likely grow more and reach 65.58 level after a completion of a retracement.
โค๏ธPlease, support my work with like, thank you!โค๏ธ
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Natural Gas & Oil Rally...What You Need to KnowNatural gas price action made a bullish reversal on the daily chart.
Closing up 1.8% ahead of inventories is very aggressive trading by the bulls.
The last couple of inventory prints have been bearish.
Crude Oil inventories sent WTI crude higher.
Energy & oil stocks were very strong today on the drop in oil inventories.
September 19 week inventories dropped by about 3.5 Million barrels.
This is showing a greater demand for oil.
Crude is still chopping around in a very dangerous technical level. Hasn't broken out or down.
Blood in the streets...Is a Bear Market Starting? We discuss the technical obseravtion in the SPX / SPY.
Why was IWM so weak today?
What is happening with inflation & why are yields rallying?
Are tensions with Russia escalating?
Today we closed IWM 241 puts for 150% gain.
We took profits on many other short ideas & entered several new trades today.
Caution needs to be warranted since the Dollar and oil are rallying.






















