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Long 
Long 
Hormuz tanker attacks escalate as Trump drops transit feeUSOIL | 4H Technical Analysis — Jul 15, 2026
Trump withdrew his 20% Hormuz transit fee proposal, stating Gulf nations prefer to invest in the US rather than pay tolls, and that he believes no one should be able to impose fees on the strait. However, the geopolitical backdrop has intensified. UAE confirmed two of its oil tankers were attacked by Iran in Omani waters, the largest attack since the ceasefire ended. The US responded with a third consecutive round of airstrikes against Iran and announced a maritime blockade of Iran, with the United States Central Command stating additional strikes were conducted to "continuously degrade Iran's ability to conduct attacks in the Strait of Hormuz."
WTI crude has breached above the descending channel upper boundary that has contained price action since the April peak near 110. Price is currently trading around 79.70, with EMA21 (76.79) having crossed above EMA78 (73.97), the first bullish EMA cross since the extended downtrend began, marking a meaningful structural shift.
The channel decline brought the price from 110 in early May all the way down to the 67 area by early July, a sustained and orderly move lower. The geopolitical escalation over the past week has driven a sharp reversal, clearing 72, 77, and now testing the 80 level from the low in under two weeks. The channel breakout combined with the EMA bullish cross is the most constructive technical setup WTI has seen since before the downtrend began.
RSI at 66.73 is elevated but not yet overbought, providing room for continuation toward the 80 and 84.50 resistance levels without immediate exhaustion.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 80 / 84.50 / 90
Support: 77 / 73.97 (EMA78) / 72 / 67 (channel low)
Bear case: A diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire announcement could rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium. A close back below the channel upper boundary and EMA21 at 76–77 would suggest the breakout is failing, with EMA78 at 73.97 as the next meaningful support.
Bull case: A hold above 77 and a clean break above 80 keep the path open toward 84.50 and eventually 90. With the US blockade now active and Iran's maritime capabilities being actively targeted, the supply disruption risk premium appears durable in the near term.
Bias is bullish on the channel breakout and EMA cross — the structural picture has shifted for the first time since April, and the escalating Hormuz situation provides a clear fundamental catalyst to sustain the move above prior resistance.
Long 
$USOUSD Idea Oil has spent the last two months doing exactly one thing: breaking structure. Since the June highs, every rally has been sold, every low has been taken, and price is now sitting inside the lower gap zone around 69, right on top of a weak low.
This is where it gets interesting. Price is compressed between untapped liquidity below and two unfilled inefficiencies above. Weak lows rarely survive, but the reaction after they're swept is what actually matters.
The key levels are clear: the resistance cluster around 72–74 where the last break of structure originated, the gap resting at 81.7–82.2, the strong high liquidity zone up at 108–112, and the untouched demand block sitting at 53–56.
From here, I see four possible paths.
Path 1: Price fails to reclaim anything, the weak low gives out immediately, and we slide straight into the 53–56 demand zone. The most aggressive continuation — no relief, just distribution.
Path 2: Price bounces into the 72–74 resistance cluster, gets rejected at the origin of the breakdown, and then rotates down toward 53–56. A cleaner short setup with better location.
Path 3: The bounce extends further and fills the gap at 81.7–82.2 before sellers step back in. Deeper retracement, same destination — the liquidity below still gets collected.
Path 4: Buyers reclaim the gap area and hold it. Structure flips, the downtrend loses its grip, and the market goes hunting the liquidity resting above the strong high around 108–112. The least likely path today, but the one nobody is positioned for.
As always, we prefer following the reaction rather than predicting it.
EQC follows the reaction.
The market decides whether this low is weak or just patient.
Hidden in plain sight. EQC.
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Financial Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor, your crypto influencer, or your emergency hotline when volatility discovers your stop loss. Always do your own research and never trade solely because colorful arrows suggest a brighter future. Long 
Short 
WTI crude oil attempts to reclaim the 80-dollar levelShort-term trading sessions remain relatively positive for crude oil. WTI has managed to maintain a gain of more than 11% over the last 2 trading sessions, amid buying pressure that once again reflects a risk premium linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
This behavior comes as rounds of military activity continue around the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over the security of maritime transit in the Gulf and possible disruptions to oil supply.
As long as these events continue to pressure risk perception around the energy market, buying pressure could remain relevant for short-term oil movements over the next few sessions.
Bullish correction becomes relevant
Although the average movements of WTI crude oil have remained around a long bearish trend line for months, the current price recovery has started to become relevant and shows a shift in the balance of forces on the daily chart.
This becomes even more important after the crossover of the 200-period moving average, which is starting to show that the short-term bullish average is gaining relevance in current price movements.
Although this recovery still does not fully eliminate the possible formation of the long bearish trend line, it does begin to highlight a potentially more relevant buying bias on the chart, which could remain important over the next few sessions.
RSI: At the moment, the RSI indicator line remains slightly above the neutral 50 level. This suggests that the average of bullish impulses has become dominant again. If this behavior continues, a potential buying bias could remain relevant over the next few sessions.
MACD: A similar scenario can be seen in the MACD, as the histogram remains above the neutral 0 line. This suggests that the average strength of short-term moving averages continues to show bullish momentum and also highlights the importance of a potential buying bias at the moment.
Key levels to watch:
82 dollars – Relevant resistance: This area corresponds to the most important nearby highs and aligns with the barrier marked by the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements above this level could show an increasingly relevant buying bias and open room for more consistent bullish pressure, which could even put the possible bearish trend line at risk over the coming weeks.
74 dollars – Neutrality level: This relevant area remains at the base of the 200-period moving average. This level could act as a tentative barrier in the event of possible bearish price corrections over the next few sessions.
67 dollars – Definitive support: This level corresponds to the most relevant lows of recent trading weeks and remains the most important bearish barrier to watch. Price movements below this level could bring the selling bias back into focus and open room for a possible extension of the long bearish trend line over the coming weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
WTI - Will oil continue to rise?!WTI oil is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. Maintaining this channel will lead to the continuation of its upward movement.
In the event of a downward correction of oil towards the specified demand zone, it can be tried to buy it again with an appropriate reward for the risk.
The continuation of the upward movement of oil towards the supply zone, which is also at the intersection of the channel ceiling, will save the profit of the purchase transactions and provide us with the opportunity to sell it.
Over the past 48 hours, the conflict has escalated into its most intense phase of the four-month war, marking the heaviest exchange of fire since the fighting began. The United States carried out more than 300 strikes, targeting ports as well as Mahshahr, the Islamic Republic's largest petrochemical hub, while also unveiling the deployment of its latest loitering drones. In response, the Islamic Republic launched ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in Kuwait and the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Meanwhile, flights in Jordan were suspended, and the Strait of Hormuz was officially declared closed for an indefinite period.
The escalation in hostilities between the United States and the Islamic Republic, coupled with conflicting statements regarding whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open or closed, triggered a sharp surge in oil prices. Although part of the initial rally later eased, crude oil is still trading about 3.3% higher. Energy markets remain highly sensitive to official announcements, and any confirmation of either a complete closure or the reopening of the strait could prompt a significant reassessment of oil prices.
At the same time, China's independent refiners, commonly known as teapot refiners, have reduced their purchases of Iranian crude and shifted toward cheaper supplies from Qatar, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. This change has led to a growing volume of unsold Iranian oil cargoes accumulating at sea, while the return of U.S. sanctions has further increased the risk that these stranded shipments will continue to build up.
Long 
Oil: The Level I've Been Waiting Months to Reach Is HereThis is a setup I've had marked for a long time - and price just arrived.
WTI crude has been in a steady decline since the March highs, dropping over 30% and sweeping all the way into a major confluence zone sitting in deep discount.
Three things are stacking at the exact same level right now: a breaker block, a daily gap, and the previous daily low / monthly low.
When three completely different tools land on the same price, that's not a coincidence - that's a magnet.
What changed this week is the lower timeframe.
After months of bearish structure, the 1H just printed a clear structural shift right off this zone - the first real sign buyers are showing up with intent rather than just slowing the bleed.
The bigger picture target is the buy side liquidity sitting way above at 119.48 - that's a long road, but it starts here.
Invalidation: A daily close below 68.56 - if the previous monthly low gives way, this bullish read is off the table.
Timeframe: Swing play, looking for continuation over the coming weeks.
Have you been watching oil for a reversal, or are you still expecting lower? Drop your bias below.
Idea-sharing only, not financial advice. Long 
DVN: Seasonal Energy Demand, Higher DividendsSector : Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Ticker : DVN
Recommendation : Buy
Entry Price : $40.36
Target Price : $47.30
Stop-Loss : $37.40
Time Horizon : Until September 7, 2026
Risk Level : Medium
Suggested Position Size : 2%
Investment Thesis
Devon Energy is one of the largest oil and gas producers in the United States, with operations fully concentrated in the U.S. market. Devon was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
In our view, DVN shares offer attractive upside potential over a two-month horizon, supported by stronger seasonal demand for natural gas and oil, favorable commodity price dynamics, and the company’s recently completed acquisition of Coterra Energy.
Our target price is $47.30 , implying approximately 17% upside from the entry price of $40.36 . A stop-loss at $37.40 helps define the downside risk.
Key Catalysts
1. Rising Demand and Potentially Higher Prices for Natural Gas and Oil
The U.S. Department of Energy expects natural gas demand to rise by 11.0% month over month in July. Seasonal demand for natural gas in the U.S. typically peaks in late July and early August, driven by higher electricity consumption during the summer cooling season.
At the same time, forecasts point to a meaningful slowdown in the pace of natural gas storage injections over the coming weeks. In our view, this combination of stronger demand and slower inventory builds could support higher U.S. natural gas prices.
Oil prices may also find support. Since the beginning of June, WTI crude has declined by 21.5%, falling below $70 per barrel amid optimism surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and expectations of a potential oil surplus.
We believe this optimism may be premature. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated, and key disagreements between the U.S. and Iran have not been fully resolved. In addition, U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories have fallen to their lowest level since 2004.
A more supportive technical setup, combined with seasonally stronger oil demand during the summer months, could create a favorable backdrop for a rebound in crude prices.
2. Synergy Potential from the Coterra Deal
On May 7, Devon completed the acquisition of its U.S. competitor Coterra Energy. Following the deal, the company increased its dividend by 31%, bringing the quarterly dividend to $0.315 per share. At current prices, this implies an annualized dividend yield of approximately 3.1%.
Devon also plans to allocate $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion per year to share repurchases. This represents approximately 2.5% to 3.7% of the company’s current market capitalization.
Another important factor is the expected synergy from the transaction. Devon aims to achieve $1 billion in annual cost savings by the end of 2027, which could improve margins, strengthen free cash flow, and support further shareholder returns.
3.Higher Dividends and Larger Buybacks
Following the completion of the Coterra Energy acquisition on May 7, Devon increased its dividend by 31%, bringing the quarterly dividend to $0.315 per share. At current prices, this implies an annualized dividend yield of approximately 3.1%.
Devon also plans to allocate $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion per year to share repurchases, equal to roughly 2.5% to 3.7% of the company’s current market capitalization.
These shareholder returns may provide additional support for the stock, especially if commodity prices stabilize or move higher.
Conclusion :DVN presents a bullish short-term setup with a defined risk/reward profile. The key drivers are seasonal energy demand, potential upside in oil and natural gas prices, higher dividends, larger buybacks, and expected synergies from the Coterra acquisition. We recommend a Buy rating on DVN with a target price of $47.30 and a stop-loss at $37.40 .
Tags #FreedomHolding #FreedomBroker #AnalystPigarev 
Long
Short 
Is the New Crude Oil Price Floor Bulletproof?Geopolitical chaos shakes global energy markets. The sudden collapse of the Iran ceasefire triggered a massive 7% price spike. US-Iran hostilities across the Gulf now threaten vital shipping lanes. Consequently, crude oil futures act as the ultimate barometer of global anxiety. Investors face unprecedented volatility as supply concerns revive overnight.
Geopolitics and Geostrategy
The Middle East remains a volatile chessboard. Recent American strikes and Iranian counterattacks on Gulf military sites escalate conflict risks. Global powers view energy security as a core national survival asset. Therefore, geostrategy dictates crude futures pricing. Nations scramble to lock in supply contracts before wider conflict chokes the Strait of Hormuz.
Macroeconomics and Economics
Escalating war premiums directly fuel global inflation. Central banks face a brutal dilemma. Higher energy costs suppress economic growth while raising consumer prices. Strategic reserves complicate this picture rather than simplify it. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since 1983 after this year's 172-million-barrel emergency release. Refilling it is a stated government priority, but it faces real obstacles, including storage infrastructure damage and billions in unresolved funding. Any future floor from reserve rebuilding remains a policy goal, not a mechanism already supporting prices today.
Industry Trends and Business Models
The oil sector rapidly adapts to perpetual volatility. Trading desks abandon long-term predictive models. Instead, they shift toward hyper-flexible, short-term hedging business models. Supply chain resilience now trumps raw production volume. Companies maximize profits by exploiting immediate arbitrage opportunities across fragmented global markets.
Technology and Cybersecurity
High-tech algorithms dominate modern crude oil futures trading. Quantitative trading models execute millions of options contracts in milliseconds. However, this digital reliance exposes massive vulnerabilities. Cybercriminals constantly target energy infrastructure and pipeline networks. Robust cybersecurity protocols protect trading platforms from state-sponsored disruption. A single cyber breach can trigger instantaneous market panic.
Science, Innovation, and Patents
Advanced science redefines the modern extraction landscape. Patent analysis reveals a surge in enhanced oil recovery technologies. Companies patent novel chemical injection methods to maximize older wells. Furthermore, refining innovations allow processors to handle heavier, sour crude grades. These scientific breakthroughs mitigate sudden geopolitical supply disruptions.
The Pharmaceutical Industry Connection
Crude oil plays a surprising role in global healthcare. Petroleum derivatives provide the essential feedstocks for synthetic chemistry. Pharmaceutical companies rely heavily on these precursor chemicals to manufacture life-saving medications. Consequently, volatile crude futures directly impact drug production costs. Stable oil markets ensure affordable global medicine.
Management and Leadership
Energy executives operate under extreme structural pressure. Exceptional management requires quick, decisive asset reallocation. Leadership teams must balance decarbonization goals with immediate fossil fuel demands. Successful CEOs heavily utilize crude futures to hedge capital-intensive projects. They protect shareholder value against sudden, violent geopolitical swings.
Conclusion
Geopolitical conflict keeps crude futures volatile, while any reserve-driven price floor remains a policy aspiration rather than a settled fact. Crude oil futures will remain volatile as this tension plays out. Investors must look beyond the immediate war premium to survive this new era.
How will your portfolio adapt to this permanent shift in the global energy floor? Long 
WTI Crude Oil — Strong Rebound From the LowsWTI Crude Oil 4H — Strong Rebound From the Lows, But 74–76 Resistance Becomes the Next Major Test
1. Market Overview
WTI Crude Oil is currently trading around the 73.00–74.00 area after a strong rebound from the lower support zone near 67.00–68.00. The market had been under clear selling pressure for several weeks, but the latest recovery shows that buyers are starting to return from the lower range.
However, despite the sharp rebound, the broader structure has not fully turned bullish yet. Price is now approaching an important resistance area where sellers may try to defend the previous breakdown zone.
The key question is whether this rebound can develop into a stronger recovery, or whether WTI is simply retesting resistance before another move lower.
2. Market Structure
From a market structure perspective, WTI is still inside a broader bearish structure, but the short-term picture has improved.
The previous trend was clearly bearish, with price forming lower highs and lower lows from the higher range above 100.00. The decline accelerated after price broke below the 80.00 area and continued toward the 67.00–68.00 support zone.
The latest rebound from the lows is constructive, but it has not yet broken the bearish structure. For a more meaningful bullish shift, WTI needs to reclaim the 74.00–76.00 resistance zone and hold above it.
Until that happens, the current move should be viewed as a recovery attempt within a broader corrective trend.
3. Daily / 4H Multi-Timeframe View
On the 4H timeframe, WTI is showing strong short-term recovery momentum. Price has bounced sharply from the 67.00–68.00 area and is now testing the first major resistance zone.
From the broader daily perspective, the market still needs confirmation. The larger trend remains under pressure because price is still below previous breakdown areas. A daily close above 76.00 would improve the recovery outlook, while failure below this zone may keep the broader bearish structure intact.
In short, the 4H chart shows a strong rebound, but the daily structure still requires a confirmed breakout above resistance.
4. Key Resistance
74.00–76.00
This is the immediate key resistance zone. Price is now approaching this area, and sellers may react here because it was part of the previous breakdown structure.
78.00–80.00
If WTI breaks above 76.00, this becomes the next important upside target zone. A move into this area would suggest stronger recovery momentum.
84.00–86.00
This is the next major structural resistance zone. A sustained move above this area would be needed to confirm a broader bullish recovery.
5. Key Support
70.00–69.00
This is the nearest short-term support zone. Holding above this area would keep the current rebound structure alive.
68.00–67.00
This is the recent bottom and key demand zone. Buyers previously reacted from this area, so it remains an important support region.
65.00–64.00
This is the lower support zone. A clean break below this area would confirm renewed bearish pressure and open the door for a deeper decline.
6. Momentum & Volatility Check
Short-term momentum has clearly improved after the strong rebound from the lows.
The move from 67.00–68.00 to the 73.00–74.00 area shows that buyers have regained some control in the short term. However, momentum is now approaching a key resistance zone, so the next reaction will be important.
Volatility remains active. If price breaks above 76.00 with strength, recovery momentum may extend quickly toward 78.00–80.00. But if WTI rejects from 74.00–76.00, a pullback toward 70.00 or 68.00 may follow.
7. Bullish Factors
The first bullish factor is that buyers defended the 67.00–68.00 support zone and created a strong rebound.
The second positive sign is that price has recovered back above the 70.00 psychological level, which improves the short-term structure.
The third factor is that the rebound has been relatively sharp, suggesting that short-covering and fresh buying may be supporting the move.
A confirmed breakout above 76.00 would be the strongest signal that the recovery is gaining real momentum.
8. Bearish Risks
The main bearish risk is that WTI is now approaching the previous breakdown zone around 74.00–76.00.
If buyers fail to break above this area, sellers may use the rebound as a retest opportunity. A rejection from this zone would suggest that the broader bearish structure is still active.
A break below 70.00 would weaken the current rebound, while a move below 67.00–68.00 would suggest that the recovery has failed and that sellers are regaining control.
9. Bullish Scenario
If WTI holds above 70.00–69.00 and breaks above 74.00–76.00 with confirmation, buyers may push price toward 78.00–80.00.
If momentum remains strong above 80.00, the next upside target would be 84.00–86.00.
A sustained move above 86.00 would confirm a stronger recovery structure and weaken the broader bearish outlook.
10. Bearish Scenario
If WTI rejects from 74.00–76.00, short-term selling pressure may return.
A break below 70.00 could send price back toward 68.00–67.00. If this support zone fails, the recovery structure would weaken, and price may move lower toward 65.00–64.00.
As long as WTI remains below 76.00, sellers still have a strong argument in the broader structure.
11. Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently neutral with a cautious recovery bias.
Buyers have clearly reacted from the lower support zone, but the broader structure has not fully turned bullish yet. The market needs confirmation above 76.00 before the recovery becomes more convincing.
Above 76.00, recovery momentum may strengthen.
Below 70.00, short-term bearish pressure may return.
Below 67.00, the broader bearish structure may regain control.
12. Trading Plan Style Summary
Plan:
- Above 76.00: recovery momentum may strengthen.
- Between 70.00 and 76.00: resistance testing and consolidation may continue.
- Below 70.00: short-term bearish pressure may return.
- Below 67.00: the recovery structure may fail.
The key area to watch is 74.00–76.00. If buyers break this zone, WTI may extend toward 80.00. If sellers defend it, the rebound may turn into another lower-high retest.
13. Interactive Question
Will WTI Crude Oil break above 76.00 and continue toward 80.00? Or will sellers defend the 74.00–76.00 resistance zone and push price back toward 70.00–68.00?
Please share your view below. Long 
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