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The bulls of Bitcoin gain more momentumFed Policy Analysis: Expected Rate Cut + Framework Reset, Bullish for Bitcoin Liquidity 1. Rate Cut Meets Expectations, Liquidity Easing Certainty Strengthened The Fed delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to the 3.50%-3.75% range — its third cut this year. This move perfectly aligns with market expectations (89.4% probability per CME FedWatch), avoiding the risk of an "expectation gap shock." While the statement’s mention of "a significantly higher bar for further rate cuts" may seem hawkish, Powell’s confirmation that "current rates are at the upper end of the neutral range" clarifies a "gradual easing" policy stance rather than an end to the easing cycle . More crucially, the Fed simultaneously launched a new Treasury purchase program, which will directly inject market liquidity and form positive resonance with risk assets like Bitcoin. Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s average returns during Fed quantitative easing (QE) periods are 3.2 times higher than in regular periods . This liquidity injection ends the three-year quantitative tightening (QT) cycle, removing a key resistance for Bitcoin’s price movement . 2. Policy Framework Returns to Balance, Inflation Constraints Ease Marginally The 2025 revision to the Fed’s monetary policy framework is a core highlight: it abandons the average inflation targeting system introduced in 2020, reverts to the traditional symmetric inflation target, and discards the employment shortfall rule to return to the original logic of balancing its dual mandates Federal Reserve Board of Governors . This adjustment means the Fed will no longer deliberately tolerate inflation overshoots, but it also reduces the probability of "policy pivots triggered by a single inflation data point," making policy decisions more flexible . For the crypto market, the marginal easing of inflation constraints enhances Bitcoin’s appeal as a risk asset. Especially with U.S. core PCE moderately declining, the driving effect of liquidity easing on prices will be more pronounced . The framework reset reflects the Fed’s response to post-pandemic economic changes — as global supply chain restructuring and labor market shortages end the low-inflation era, the previous framework’s limitations (which delayed inflation responses) are no longer applicable . This balanced approach provides a more stable policy environment for risk assets. Bitcoin trading strategy buy：91500-92500 tp:93500-94500-97000 sl：90500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Thorne-
six touches in 15 years...Bitcoin Has Entered a Level It Has Only Reached Six Times and the Dates Tell the Story Bitcoin’s Weekly RSI has dropped to 36, a historically rare zone that the chart hits only during periods of extreme structural stress. And when we overlay this with the timeline on the chart, every dip into this RSI basement aligns with major real-world events, each stamped by a specific date. Let’s match every RSI-36 moment with what actually happened and when. 2011 — The Mt. Gox Hack (June 19, 2011) BTC’s earliest major crash occurred on June 19, 2011, when Mt. Gox was breached and trading halted. Liquidity evaporated instantly, triggering one of Bitcoin’s first violent drawdowns. 2015 — Mt. Gox Bankruptcy Confirmation (January 2015 – April 2015) While Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy protection earlier (February 2014), the real market shock hit in 2015 as court proceedings confirmed the exchange’s insolvency and creditors reported massive unrecoverable losses. Key dates: January 2015: BTC bottomed near $150 April 2015: Bankruptcy trustee disclosures shook the market again 2018 — The ICO Bubble Implosion (January 2018 – December 2018) BTC peaked on December 17, 2017, then the unwind began: January–February 2018: ICO failures and SEC actions November 2018: Final capitulation during Bitcoin Cash hash war 2020 — Global COVID-19 Crash (March 12–13, 2020) When the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020, global markets melted down. On March 12, 2020 (“Black Thursday”), Bitcoin recorded one of its steepest single-day drops ever. 2022 — Terra Collapse → Crypto Contagion → FTX Implosion Here are the exact dates of the triple-shock: May 9–12, 2022: Terra/Luna death spiral June 12, 2022: Celsius froze withdrawals July 5, 2022: Voyager filed for bankruptcy November 8–11, 2022: FTX collapsed and filed for Chapter 11 Each failure compounded systemic risk across crypto. 2025 — The Sixth Touch: Tariff Shock & Global Instability The most recent RSI drop aligns with the 2025 macro-driven selloff, tied to: Tariff escalations between major economies Heightened geopolitical tensions Risk-off flows hitting all high-beta assets BONUS CHART EVIDENCE (NERD MODE): Your chart clearly maps each RSI-low event to a real historical stress point: Year Event Date Chart Marker 2011 Mt. Gox Hack June 19, 2011 MT. GOX HACK 2015 Mt. Gox Bankruptcy Fallout Jan–Apr 2015 MT. GOX COLLAPSE 2018 ICO Bubble Crash 2018 (Dec bottom) ICO BUBBLE 2020 COVID Crash March 12–13, 2020 COVID CRASH 2022 Luna → Celsius → FTX Collapse May–Nov 2022 TERRA / FTX COLLAPSE 2025 Macro + Geopolitical Stress 2025 TARIFF WAR & WARS Each RSI drop perfectly aligns with the chart’s highlighted crisis zones. The currencynerd Take This RSI zone is more than a technical level, it’s a historical fingerprint. Every time Bitcoin visits this region, the market is either: wrapping up a generational panic, or warming up for deeper chaos. And based on the chart… BTC is once again standing at a level touched only during the darkest moments in its history. What happens next doesn’t just shape price, it shapes the entire cycle. put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd courtesy of : @TradingView
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – BTCUSD (4H)1. Market Structure: Ascending Channel (Orange) The chart clearly shows an ascending trend channel – the upper and lower orange lines. Lower Channel Support: ~$87,000 Upper Channel Resistance: ~$96,000 Medium-term trend = uptrend as long as the price remains within this channel. 2. Key Levels You Have Marked Resistance $94,133 – local resistance from which the price recently rejected. $95,866 – upper boundary of the resistance zone + near-upper channel line. $99,067 – high target upon channel breakout. Support $92,190 – price is currently within this zone, struggling to maintain it. $90,757 – important intraday support; a breakout opens the way lower. USD 88,203 – strong support, converging with the lower part of the channel. 3. Price action Currently, I see: Rejection from the 94.1k level, which is resistance. Attempt to return to the center of the structure, but the candlestick is rejected from above. The market is making a short-term lower high → slight weakening of momentum. 4. Stoch RSI Stoch RSI (4h): The lines are in a downward trend from the upper levels, meaning a short-term correction is just beginning. There is no signal for an upward reversal yet → momentum favors a move to lower support levels. ⭐ 5. Scenarios for the next hours/1–2 days BULLISH (if BTC maintains 92k–90.7k) Condition: No break below $90,757 Potential moves: Consolidation at 92k–91k Stoch RSI begins to curve upward Attack: $94,133 $95,866 (upper channel resistance) Target: → $96,000 → possible test of $99,000 with a strong breakout BEARISH (if BTC breaks $90,757 down) This is a key level. If it breaks: A quick decline to $88,203 High probability of a retest of the lower channel line (~87k) This still won't destroy the uptrend, but it will open the door to buying lower.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
SHIB fighting EMAHey guys, SHIB is setting up for a potential breakdown on the 1H timeframe, and the risk-reward is looking pretty clean for short positions right now. Price is trading at $0.00000853, sandwiched between EMA20/50 resistance at $0.00000857-858 and the make-or-break EMA200 support at $0.00000852. The ADX reading of 56.0 confirms we're in a strong trending environment, and that trend is decidedly bearish. RSI at 30.8 is approaching oversold, but without bullish divergence and with volume running 77% below average, there's no conviction for a reversal yet. The setup: short entries around $0.00000855 with a tight stop above $0.00000865 (invalidation if we reclaim the EMA cluster). First target sits at the Bollinger Band lower support at $0.00000844, with an extended target at $0.00000838 if the EMA200 breaks. That gives us roughly 1:2.5 risk-reward on the conservative target and 1:4+ if we get the full move. The MACD remains bearish, MFI shows weak money flow at 36.5, and the internal market state is reading choppy with only 17% directional confidence, but the sell signals are stacking up. Key risk: if price reclaims $0.00000859 (BB middle band) with volume, this whole setup gets invalidated and we could see a squeeze back toward $0.00000874. But until that happens, the path of least resistance is down, especially with such weak participation on bounces. How are you playing this move? Waiting for the EMA200 break or already positioned short?
Short
by MonoCoinSignal
Bitcoin reaction to FED RATE choices since 2021 It is really very simple Back in 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin PA did what it was intended to do and rate decisions did not directly inpact Bitcoin at all. We had the traditional 9-% pull back, as we had had in previous cycle. The impact in the rising Rates was on companies in the Crypto Sphere, that suffered as rates were increased. Repaying th eloans became intolerable. Lets look at this cycle, from late 2022 to current day Despite Steep Rate rises in late 2022, Early 2023, Bitcoin Price and trading Volume INCREASED.# In Late 2022, you can see that a steep 75 point increase did not phase BTC from trying to rise but the impact on crypto companies and Banks began scaring people and the next 75 point rise tipped many over But Bitcoin found a floor and remained there. Then we had a 50 point rise and PA remained were it was...NO IMPACT> Then we had a series of 3 x 25 point rises. Bitcoin Rose through the first of those and fought back in the other 2, dipping slightly as the OverSold MACD cooled off ( this was on lower time frames )......The ONLT reason for the Range to lower prices Weekly MACD The Green box shows the period that BTC PA ranged, March to September 2023 THIS was the defining period for BITCOIN Once it became cheaper to borrow nd ETF's were allowed. off we went. Is Cheaper borrowing likely to sustain Bitcoins rise ? OF COURSE But please remain cautious. 100K -> 110K usdt is the line of possible rejection and has potential to enter Bitcoin into a Deeper Bear. REMEMBER. BITCOIN is NOT effected by Rates, as we saw in early 2023, and If a BEAR Market is required, then it will happen no matter if Rates are lower. For Me, I think we will see a rise, a Dip and then, around March next year,we will see the defining moment that will decree where we REALLY go MACRO events can always accelerate that
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Title: Trendline Break Setup – Gold Opportunity SHORTGold has moved into a key supply zone and broken the trendline, presenting a high-probability setup. Entry on trendline confirmation offers a strong risk/reward, targeting at least 4R. Partial positions help manage risk, with stops shifted to break-even after initial gains. The combination of zone confluence and trendline break increases the chance of continuation, while monitoring price reaction allows for adaptive management.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TickTradeSignals
PLAY/USDT — Tight Ascending Structure Pressing Into Major ResistHey there! December 10, 2025 PLAY has been coiling inside a very tight ascending structure, gradually pushing into its main resistance zone. This type of price action is a classic sign of pressure building before a potential breakout. The chart is showing one of the strongest bullish setups it has formed in weeks. 🔍 Technical Overview Current price: ~$0.0336 4EMA: ~$0.0309 → price is consistently holding above it. Volume has increased during the recent push upward, confirming genuine interest and accumulation near resistance. 📊 Market Structure Breakdown 1. Ascending triangle formation (late November → December) Price is forming: Higher lows Flat resistance around $0.034–0.035 Tight compression inside a rising structure This pattern generally signals bullish continuation, especially when forming beneath a clear resistance band. 2. First breakout attempts with rejection wicks PLAY has already tested the resistance zone multiple times: Each test produced upper wicks But none resulted in a structural breakdown Lows continue to rise each time This means sellers are losing control and buyers are absorbing supply. 3. Price remains above EMAs → momentum still bullish The short-term trend is clean: Price riding the EMA Higher lows maintained No breakdown from structure As long as PLAY stays above $0.031–0.032, the bullish thesis remains intact. 🧱 Key Levels Major Support Zones $0.031–0.032 → ascending triangle support 4EMA (~$0.031) → dynamic support A breakdown below these would weaken the bullish setup. Resistance to Break $0.034–0.035 → key ceiling This is the zone PLAY must close above to trigger expansion. 🎯 Breakout Targets If PLAY breaks above $0.035, the next targets are: $0.040 → minor liquidity level $0.050–0.055 → next structural resistance This is where the chart has historical supply and where liquidity is likely hiding. The distance between current price and higher levels is large — meaning the breakout could have strong follow-through. 🔮 Outlook PLAY is in a high-pressure compression against resistance, forming a textbook continuation pattern. Bullish if: Price closes above $0.035 Higher lows continue Volume increases on the breakout This would open the door to $0.040 and then $0.050+. Bearish only if: Price falls below $0.031 Ascending structure breaks EMAs lose support Until then, momentum remains clearly bullish. Have an amazing week!
Long
by EdoardoTelve
1
PIOC - PSX - Technical AnalysisPIOC on monthly TF, after making a Cup & Handle pattern has started its bull run in June 2023 which is still going strong. RSI is almost in the same region since Nov 2023 and therefore it points to somewhat constant and upward buying sentiments in this SCRIPT. Also on monthly TF there is a hidden bullish divergence, which may cause a sudden pumping up of the price. As per AB=CD pattern TP can be 364 and as per Cup&Handle pattern, TP can be 404 which is even higher. Trade values: Buy-1 : 291 (CMP) SL: 260 TP1: 364 TP2: 404
PSX:PIOCLong
by Golden_Spur
2
XAUUSD: Bullish Trend Strengthens After Dip Toward 4170.Analysis: Gold is currently trading around the 4180 zone, holding firmly above the key intraday support at 4170. The strong support remains positioned at 4151, which is the level bulls must defend to keep upward momentum intact. On the upside, the immediate resistance stands at 4198, followed by a secondary barrier at 4218. A breakout above 4198 would signal renewed bullish momentum and open the door for a test of 4218, where stronger supply pressure may appear. The recent dip toward 4170 was met with solid buying interest, reinforcing bullish sentiment. With the market pricing in the Fed’s rate-cut outlook, gold continues to benefit from broader macro support. Lower rate expectations typically weaken the dollar and reduce yields, giving gold an additional push toward the upside. 📈 Bias: Bullish 📍 Key Levels: Support: 4170 / 4151 Resistance: 4198 / 4218 Target : 4240 As long as price holds above 4170, the bullish trend remains favored. A sustained move above 4198 could accelerate the next upward leg.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Chart_Analyst_Pro
1
EUR/GBP Bearish Structure Activated After Technical Breakouts!🔥 EUR/GBP "THE CHUNNEL" 📉 BEARISH REVERSAL SETUP | Day/Swing Trade 📊 CURRENT MARKET DATA (Dec 10, 2025) Live Price: 0.8737 Bias: BEARISH ⬇️ Setup Confirmed: Hull MA Pullback + TMA Breakout ✅ 🎯 THE SETUP 📍 ENTRY STRATEGY: "THIEF LAYERING METHOD" Multiple sell limit orders (layer your entries for optimal positioning): Layer 1: 0.87600 Layer 2: 0.87500 Layer 3: 0.87400 💡 Thief OG's: Adjust layers based on your risk appetite & account size 🛑 STOP LOSS Thief SL: 0.87700 ⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), this is MY stop loss level based on MY strategy. You MUST adjust your SL according to YOUR OWN risk tolerance and trading plan. Not financial advice. 🎯 TAKE PROFIT TARGET Primary Target: 0.86950 Technical Confluence: ✅ SuperTrend ATR acting as strong support zone ✅ Oversold conditions building ✅ Trap zone + correlation confirmation ✅ Hull MA trend reversal confirmed 💰 PROFIT MANAGEMENT: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), I do NOT recommend blindly following my TP. Scale out, trail stops, and take profits at YOUR discretion. Your money = your rules. Trade at your own risk. 🔗 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH (Correlation Analysis) 💵 GBP PAIRS (Inverse Correlation) FX:GBPUSD - Currently: 1.3314 ✅ Watch for GBP weakness confirmation OANDA:GBPJPY - Currently: 208.53 ✅ Risk sentiment indicator OANDA:GBPCHF - Negative correlation with EUR/GBP 💶 EUR PAIRS (Direct Correlation) FX:EURUSD - Currently: 1.1637 ✅ Euro strength barometer OANDA:EURCHF - Currently: 0.9352 ✅ Safe-haven flow indicator OANDA:EURJPY - Currently: 182.20 ✅ Risk-on/risk-off confirmation 🔑 KEY CORRELATION INSIGHTS: If GBP/USD strengthens → EUR/GBP likely drops ✅ (Supports our bearish bias) If EUR/USD weakens → EUR/GBP likely drops ✅ (Double confirmation) EUR/CHF movement → Shows Euro capital flows GBP/JPY above 208 → Risk-on environment (monitor closely) Watch for: GBP strength OR Euro weakness = EUR/GBP downside acceleration 🚀 📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Confirmed Signals: 🔵 Hull Moving Average pullback reversal pattern 🔺 Triangular Moving Average breakout (bearish) 📉 Price structure showing rejection at resistance ⚡ SuperTrend ATR support zone below @ 0.86950 Trade Logic: Price has confirmed bearish reversal with strong technical confluence. Multiple moving average systems aligned for downside momentum. Layered entries allow for optimal risk-reward with reduced exposure at each level. ⚠️ FULL RISK DISCLOSURE THIEF OG'S - READ THIS: ❌ This is NOT financial advice ❌ I am NOT recommending you copy my SL/TP levels ✅ YOU must manage your own risk ✅ YOU decide when to enter/exit ✅ YOUR capital = YOUR responsibility ✅ Trade what YOU can afford to lose Risk Management: Position size according to your account, never risk more than 1-2% per trade, and always have a plan before entering. 🎓 EDUCATION NOTE The "Thief Layering Strategy" uses multiple limit orders to average into positions with improved entries. This reduces timing risk and provides flexibility for volatile market conditions. Benefits: ✅ Better average entry price ✅ Reduced emotional decision-making ✅ Risk distributed across levels ✅ Adapts to volatility 📢 Drop a 🚀 if you're watching THE CHUNNEL with me! 📢 Comment your thoughts below - What's your EUR/GBP bias? 💬 Follow for more setups | 👍 Boost if this helps your analysis
by The-Thief