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XAG USD (Silver / US Dollar)

Gold September Seasonality (Last 10 Years: 2015–2024)Gold is heading into September after a monster run in 2024/25. Unlike the “September slump” you hear about in crypto, gold’s last decade shows mostly mild, tactical moves in September—often driven by real yields, the dollar, and physical demand cycles. Once any early-month wobble plays out, dips have tended to be opportunities within the prevailing trend. 📊 Gold September Seasonality (Last 10 Years: 2015–2024) Yearly September Returns Year 📈 Return 2024 🟢 +4.99% 2023 🔴 −3.73% 2022 🔴 −2.32% 2021 🔴 −4.59% 2020 🔴 −3.70% 2019 🔴 −2.55% 2018 🔴 −1.93% 2017 🔴 −1.44% 2016 🟢 +1.02% 2015 🔴 −0.27% 📌 At-a-glance stats (2015–2024) 📉 Mean (10-yr): −1.45% ⚖️ Median: −2.13% 🔴 Red months: 8 out of 10 ❌ Worst September: 2021 (−4.59%) ✅ Best September: 2024 (+4.99%) 📅 Recent Performance (last 3 years) 2024: 🟢 +4.99% → strongest September in the set 2023: 🔴 −3.73% → higher real yields weighed on bullion 2022: 🔴 −2.32% → strong USD + aggressive Fed hikes ➡️ Average of last 3 years: 🔴 −0.35% ➡️ Average of last 5 years (2020–2024): 🔴 −1.87% ________________________________________ 🔎 Key Insights • Gentle September bias: Over the last decade, September has skewed slightly negative for gold (mean −1.45%), but the drawdowns are modest compared to risk assets. • Cycle matters more than calendar: 2020–2023 saw consistent reds as the dollar firmed and real yields rose; 2024 flipped green as rate-cut expectations and central-bank demand underpinned prices. • Long-term seasonality ≠ last-decade reality: Multi-decade studies often show gold firming into late summer/early autumn (festival/jewelry demand, restocking), but the last 10 years were dominated by policy and yields—diluting that classic pattern. ________________________________________ 🚀 Macro & Market Context • 2019–2020: Trade tensions into COVID—gold corrected in Sep ’19 (−2.6%) and more so in Sep ’20 (−3.7%) after August’s spike to new highs. • 2021: Fed taper talk + rising real yields → weakest September (−4.6%). • 2022: King Dollar & rapid hikes → another red September (−2.3%). • 2023: Real yields kept pressure on bullion (−3.7%). • 2024: Sentiment flipped on policy expectations and persistent central-bank demand → solid +5.0% September. ________________________________________ 🧭 Takeaway Gold’s September over the last decade has leaned slightly bearish, but mostly in controlled, single-digit moves. The signal isn’t “sell September,” it’s “watch real yields, the USD, and physical flows.” When those line up, the calendar fade loses its bite—as 2024 showed.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
34
SILVER Set To Fall! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on SILVER and concluded the following: The market is trading on 39.719 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 39.114 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAGUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
10
Silver Eyes 40-Resistance for a Record High BreakoutIn line with gold’s momentum and the industrial demand for silver—particularly from the growing tech and AI sectors—a clear hold above the 40 mark may extend gains toward 42, aligning with the upper border of the uptrending channel respected since 2023. A breakout beyond that border may offer a more comfortable bullish outlook for silver, with potential upside toward 46 and 50, in line with the 2011 peaks and possibly beyond. On the downside, should momentum pull back, a clean break below 37 may extend losses toward the channel’s mid-zone near 35, where a potential rebound could emerge. If not, the next key level I’m eyeing is the lower boundary of that channel near the 30 mark, which may offer another long-term bullish positioning opportunity on the silver chart. — Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by FOREXcom
SILVER AT RESISTANCE ZONE-READ CAPTIONHi trade's Silver price is currently approaching the resistance zone near 39.100, while the risk level remains at 39.500. If price respects this resistance, we may see a rejection and a move back toward the demand zone at 37.900. However, if buyers push above 39.500, the bearish setup becomes invalid. This setup highlights a short opportunity from resistance with demand zone as the key target. Risk management is crucial, as a breakout above 39.500 may shift the trend Resistance 39.100 Demand 37.900 Risk 39.500
TVC:SILVERShort
by haleh120
Silver breakout support at 3830The Silver remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a continuation breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 3830 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 3830 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 3965 – initial resistance 4000 – psychological and structural level 4040 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 3830 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 3800 – minor support 3755 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the silver holds above 3830. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAGUSD
by TradeNation
Bullish Bounce Off 50% Fib Retracement?Silver (XAG/USD) has bounced off the support level, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 38.14 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 37.58 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 39.39 Why we like it: There is a swing high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAGUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
A 45-Year Trend Breakout Signal in the Silver/S&P 500 Ratio This analysis presents a long-term case for a secular trend reversal in the Silver-to-S&P 500 ratio. The ratio appears to be breaking out from a multi-year consolidation pattern that is nested within a massive 45-year descending channel. This alignment of short-term and long-term patterns, supported by fundamental drivers, suggests the extended period of equity outperformance over silver may be approaching a major inflection point. Technical Analysis: A Generational Reversal The monthly chart displays a rare confluence of technical formations, with each pattern reinforcing the others across different time horizons. * The 45-Year Descending Channel: The entire modern history of the ratio is framed by a massive descending channel originating from the 1980 peak. This structure has defined the long-term bear market. The key insight is that the ratio bottomed at the lower boundary of this channel in the early 2000s and has spent two decades building a base in the lower half of the channel. * The Macro Rounding Bottom: The large green arc (highlighted by the white circle) visualizes the generational bottoming process that has been forming since the 2011 peak. This classic reversal pattern suggests a gradual but powerful shift from a bearish regime to a new bullish accumulation phase. * The Nested Triangle Breakout: Within the larger rounding bottom, the price has been consolidating in a multi-year symmetrical triangle. The ratio is currently attempting to break out from this nested pattern, signaling the potential start of the next major upward impulse. * Bullish Moving Average Crossover: Confirming this breakout is a rare "golden cross" on the monthly chart, with the 12/24-month SMAs crossing above the 50-month SMA. This signals a significant shift in long-term momentum, mirroring a similar event that preceded the major bull market that peaked in 2011. Fundamental Drivers This technical setup is underpinned by powerful fundamental catalysts: * Strategic Mineral Classification: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has designated silver as a "Critical Mineral," essential for national security and the economy. * Emerging Sovereign Demand: Reports indicate potential new interest from sovereign entities, like Saudi Arabia and Russia, in adding silver to their national reserves. * Structural Supply Deficit: This new demand is emerging against a backdrop of a persistent structural deficit in the silver market. Synthesis and a Two-Stage Thesis The technicals suggest a two-stage process for a major trend reversal. The breakout from the nested triangle, driven by the rounding bottom, represents the initial move. This is the start of a potential journey from the lower half of the 45-year channel toward its upper boundary. Should the initial breakout be confirmed, it could represent the beginning of the parabolic, multi-year phase of outperformance that many long-term investors have anticipated for decades. - Stage 1 Confirmation: A sustained monthly close above the 0.0060 level is the critical threshold for confirming the breakout from the nested triangle. - Stage 2 Macro Target: A successful breakout would imply an eventual long-term move toward the upper boundary of the 45-year descending channel. Disclaimer : This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment decisions should be made with the consultation of a qualified professional.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by AnttiKokkoo_
SILVER What Next? SELL! My dear friends, SILVER looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 38.882 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 38.270 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAGUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
1
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, SILVER Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸 The pair is now consolidating within a wide horizontal range. We see a test of its support now. Probabilities will be high, that a bullish movement will follow from that. 2️⃣ #USDCAD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦 The pair is positioned strongly bullish, respecting a solid rising trend line after a pullback. With a high probability, growth will continue. 3️⃣ #USDJPY daily time frame 🇯🇵🇺🇸 Similarly to EURUSD, the pair is consolidating. The price is trading in the middle of the horizontal parallel channel. With a high probability, it will start growing soon and reach the resistance of the range. 4️⃣ #SILVER #XAGUSD daily time frame 🪙 The price has recently updated a local high, breaking a significant horizontal resistance cluster. We see its retest now. There is a great chance that the market will cotinue rising soon. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
Silver bullish continuation supported at 3830The Silver remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a continuation breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 3830 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 3830 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 3965 – initial resistance 4000 – psychological and structural level 4040 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 3830 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 3800 – minor support 3755 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the silver holds above 3830. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAGUSD
by TradeNation
Gold Prices Overview of Primary Catalyst : September 2025⚡️ Gold: Consolidation Before the Next Move Gold set fresh records earlier this year and now sits in a tight post–Jackson Hole range around $3,360–$3,380/oz as rate-cut odds jumped and the dollar eased back. Spot was ~$3,368 this morning, slightly off Friday’s spike after Powell opened the door to a September cut. ________________________________________ 1) Fed Path & Real Yields — 9.5/10 (Bullish for gold) Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks highlighted rising labor-market risks and explicitly “opened the door” to a September cut. Futures now price a high probability of an initial -25 bps move with more to follow into year-end. Lower policy rates/real yields remain the single strongest tailwind for non-yielding gold. 2) U.S. Dollar Trend — 7.5/10 (Bullish for gold) The DXY slipped toward the high-97s after Powell’s dovish tilt and remains soft versus recent peaks, reducing a key headwind to non-USD buyers. If the dollar rebound stalls, gold’s upside path stays cleaner. 3) Central-Bank Buying / De-Dollarization — 8.5/10 (Bullish) Official-sector demand stays structurally strong. Global central banks remain on track for another ~1,000t year, with China’s PBoC extending purchases for a ninth straight month. This “sticky” bid continues to underwrite dips. 4) Trade/Tariff Shock (incl. U.S. tariffs on bullion) — 8.0/10 (Bullish) The broad U.S. tariff regime (10% baseline, higher on targeted goods) is inflationary at the margin; crucially, imports of 1kg/100oz gold bars were swept into the rules, temporarily snarling Swiss shipments and roiling COMEX/LBMA logistics until guidance is clarified. Result: fatter location/financing premia and periodic price dislocations that tend to support spot. 5) ETF & Institutional Flows — 7.5/10 (Bullish) After years of outflows, ETF inflows in the first half of 2025 were the strongest in 5 years (~$38B; +397t), with July showing further additions. GLD holdings are back near ~957t. Continued inflows amplify macro moves. 6) Systematic/CTA & Positioning Dynamics — 6.5/10 (Mixed → Volatility) CTAs and options flow are magnifying swings around key levels ($3,350–$3,420). Upside call demand is persistent, meaning whipsaws remain likely as trend-following systems react to dollar/yield shifts. 7) China Property & Growth Stress — 6.0/10 (Bullish) The Evergrande delisting and deepening Country Garden losses underscore a property slump that keeps risk appetite in check and supports defensive assets. Weak housing drags on jewelry demand but typically supports investment demand for bullion. 8) U.S. Fiscal Risk & Credit Quality — 6.0/10 (Bullish) The May downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit and ongoing wide deficits keep a slow-burn bid under gold. Any wobble in auctions or debt-ceiling theatrics would push this higher. 9) Jewelry & Tech Demand — 5.0/10 (Slightly Bearish/neutral short-term) Record prices hit Q2 jewelry volumes (-14% y/y to 341t), though India shows early signs of seasonal revival into festivals. Tech demand dipped ~2% y/y amid electronics softness. Physical demand is a brake on parabolic rallies. 10) Geopolitics (Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan risk, etc.) — 5.5/10 (Event-Bullish) Headlines remain volatile—Israeli strikes on Iran-aligned Houthis and ongoing Ukraine politics keep a latent safe-haven premium. Spikes are event-driven unless escalation persists. ________________________________________ 🌐 Other Catalysts to Watch • Crypto Cross-Flows (5/10): Sharp crypto drawdowns can funnel short-term interest into gold, though correlation remains inconsistent. • Bullion Logistics & Refining (New): U.S. tariff ambiguity on kilobars introduces intermittent premiums and arbitrage opportunities between Zurich–London–NY. • Physical Supply Disruptions (4/10): Always idiosyncratic; currently secondary to macro. | Rank | Catalyst | Score/10 | Current Impact | Direction | Notes | | ---- | ------------------------------------------ | -------: | -------------- | ------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | 1 | Fed path & real yields | **9.5** | Very High | **Bullish** | Dovish tilt; cuts now live for Sept. | | 2 | Central-bank buying | **8.5** | High | **Bullish** | Ongoing official demand; PBoC keeps adding. | | 3 | Trade/tariff shock (incl. bullion tariffs) | **8.0** | High | **Bullish** | Broad tariffs + bullion rules raise premia & inflation risk. | | 4 | U.S. dollar trend | **7.5** | High | **Bullish** | DXY softer post-Jackson Hole; less drag on gold. | | 5 | ETF/institutional flows | **7.5** | High | **Bullish** | Biggest inflows in 5 yrs; GLD holdings high. | | 6 | Systematic/CTA flows | **6.5** | Moderate | **Mixed** | Options/CTA activity driving overshoots both ways. | | 7 | China property stress | **6.0** | Moderate | **Bullish** | Structural drag supports safe-haven demand. | | 8 | U.S. fiscal/credit risk | **6.0** | Moderate | **Bullish** | Downgrade + deficits maintain hedge demand. | | 9 | Jewelry/tech demand | **5.0** | Low | **Neutral → Slightly Bearish** | Jewelry volumes fell 14% y/y; festivals could revive. | | 10 | Geopolitics (broad) | **5.5** | Low–Mod | **Bullish (event-driven)** | Episodic; not the primary driver now. |
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
36
Silver’s Roadmap: Support at 37, Eyes on 451. What happened last week As I mentioned in previous analyses, Silver is more bullish than Gold. Last week confirmed this view once again: the dip from 37 was quickly absorbed by buyers, showing strong demand. On the weekly chart (left), the reversal from the lows printed a clear bullish engulfing candle, while on the daily chart (right), the bounce shaped a classic three white soldiers pattern. 2. Key resistance and current challenge Friday’s advance, however, stalled exactly at the resistance zone around 39, an area defined by the high from previous months. This makes 39 the immediate hurdle for bulls. Without a clean breakout above this zone, the risk of another short-term pullback remains. 3. Bigger picture outlook Looking further ahead, many traders might see a move toward 45 as “stretched,” considering it implies a rally of nearly 6000 pips from here. But in percentage terms, that’s only about 15%, which is well within Silver’s historical volatility. In fact, such moves are not unusual for Silver market when momentum builds. 4. Trading plan With this in mind, as long as the 37 level holds as support, the strategy remains to buy dips into weakness. A decisive break above 39 would provide confirmation for continuation, opening the door toward the 45 target area. 5. Final note Silver continues to show relative strength compared to Gold. The technical picture is bullish, the levels are well-defined, and the price action is clean. Now the market simply needs confirmation above resistance. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
10
Silver Roadmap: Key Supply at 38.8 or a Breakout to 39.6?Price is consolidating around 38.0, after recovering from July’s breakdown, currently sitting just below the weekly supply/resistance zone at 38.3–38.8, with liquidity resting above 39.2–39.6. The nearest and strongest daily demand lies at 36.6–35.5 (origin of the prior impulse and multi-touch base). Momentum/RSI on the daily chart is neutral (not overbought), with the latest rally built on shallow pullbacks → a favorable context for potential “stop-hunts” above supply before the market makes a decision. COT (Aug 12): Non-commercials remain net long but have been trimming positions (longs ↓, shorts ↑), while commercials stay net short → bullish positioning is cooling, often a precursor to range-bound or corrective phases. Retail sentiment: roughly 52% short / 48% long, not at extremes → no strong contrarian signal. Seasonality: August tends to be slightly bullish for silver on 10–20 year averages, while September is historically negative → current tailwind may turn into a headwind ahead. 🔎 Bias: Neutral with a bearish tilt at 38.3–38.8, unless a breakout is confirmed; elevated risk of false breaks toward 39.3–39.6 before potential downside rotation. Key catalysts to watch: DXY and real yields (inverse correlation), gold performance, US macro releases (CPI, ISM, NFP), and Chinese data (PMIs/industrial growth). A stronger USD or rising yields would favor the bearish case from 38.8, while a weaker USD combined with a gold breakout would increase the odds of a liquidity sweep toward 39.6.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
2