GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3458 and a gap below at 3439. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3458
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3458 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3477
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3477 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3497
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3497 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3513
BEARISH TARGETS
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3417
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3417 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3395
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3395 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3369
3352
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3395 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3336
3315
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Xauusd(w)
XAUUSD: Ready for the Next Breakout?Hello, let’s take a broader look at OANDA:XAUUSD together.
Last Friday, gold surged strongly. The precious metal is now moving around 3447 USD and has become more attractive than ever.
So, what’s next for gold?
From an economic and market perspective, gold is benefiting from ongoing uncertainties, global conflicts, and speculation about the FED’s upcoming rate cuts. The weakening USD has been the driving force behind gold’s continued rally at this stage.
Technical outlook: Gold has just broken higher and is now facing its all-time highs. The formation of an ascending triangle is approaching its climax, and XAUUSD may break out to test higher levels. The answer is only a matter of time. A candle close above the resistance zone will be something to watch for, with the first psychological target at the 3500 USD round level.
Given the current setup, I’m waiting for XAUUSD to push through resistance.
What about you—what do you think will happen? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Good luck!
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would continue with the chart we shared for Jackson Hole as it was going to plan and the move was expected to continue. We said we would be looking for the red box to be tapped and as long as it didn’t break, a move downside into the lower red box defence was likely. This move worked nearly to the pip giving traders a nice short trade. We then said, as long as we’re above the defence box, we’ll continue the range and look for more upside, which as you can see again played well between the boxes and then the break occurred, giving us the move upside.
A decent week in Camelot, not only on Gold but the numerous other pairs we trade and apply the algo to.
So, what can we expect from the week ahead?
Many traders will be looking at this and thinking we’re too high and stretched here to attempt a long, which is the right plan for now. Having said that, we’re not discounting a move upside during the early session, with the first level above being the 3455-60 region. It’s this region, if rejected, that can give traders the potential opportunity to attempt the short trade initially into the 3440-35 region which is the level that needs to be watched if attacked for a break.
Above, that key level 3460 is the region bulls need to push us over with volume in order for us to then look at targeting higher pricing with levels above 3468 and above that 3485-90
There isn’t a lot on the fundamental front this week apart from NFP on Friday so expect there to be a lot of choppy price action and ranging towards the middle of the week pre-event.
KOG’s bias of the week:
No bias for the week, we’ll release the daily bias instead and play level to level
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3450 for 3455, 3462, 3468 and 3480 in extension of the move
Break below 3440 for 3436, 3430 and 3422 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPWeekly Chart Update
Structure Intact: Gap Still in Play
As anticipated, we got the 3387 retest again last week and, just like before, price delivered another body close above 3387. This once again confirms the 3482 gap remains active. We saw a strong push upward, but the market still falls short of fully filling the gap leaving it open and in play.
Current Outlook
🔹 Range Still Active
Price continues to oscillate between 3281 and 3387. The structure remains locked inside this zone until a full breakout develops.
🔹 Support Intact at 3281
The gap support remains unbroken, providing buyers with a key defensive base.
🔹 3387 Reclaimed
We got the retest and another body close above, reaffirming that bulls remain committed and the gap toward 3482 is valid.
🔹 Upside Gap Target Still 3482
Price pushed higher, but the gap remains unfilled. As long as 3387 holds, 3482 remains the key upside objective.
Updated Levels to Watch
📉 Support – 3281
The must-hold level to keep the bullish case alive.
📈 Resistance – 3387
Now acting as reclaimed support on closes, with buyers defending this level for higher continuation.
📈 Upside Gap Target – 3482
Still the larger bullish target, with the gap partially filled but not yet closed.
Plan
Structure remains unchanged, but momentum is building. With repeated body closes above 3387, the path toward 3482 is increasingly credible. Until the gap is fully filled, upside remains open—but if 3281 fails, the bullish outlook risks breaking down.
Thanks as always for your support,
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold September Seasonality (Last 10 Years: 2015–2024)Gold is heading into September after a monster run in 2024/25. Unlike the “September slump” you hear about in crypto, gold’s last decade shows mostly mild, tactical moves in September—often driven by real yields, the dollar, and physical demand cycles. Once any early-month wobble plays out, dips have tended to be opportunities within the prevailing trend.
📊 Gold September Seasonality (Last 10 Years: 2015–2024)
Yearly September Returns
Year 📈 Return
2024 🟢 +4.99%
2023 🔴 −3.73%
2022 🔴 −2.32%
2021 🔴 −4.59%
2020 🔴 −3.70%
2019 🔴 −2.55%
2018 🔴 −1.93%
2017 🔴 −1.44%
2016 🟢 +1.02%
2015 🔴 −0.27%
📌 At-a-glance stats (2015–2024)
📉 Mean (10-yr): −1.45%
⚖️ Median: −2.13%
🔴 Red months: 8 out of 10
❌ Worst September: 2021 (−4.59%)
✅ Best September: 2024 (+4.99%)
📅 Recent Performance (last 3 years)
2024: 🟢 +4.99% → strongest September in the set
2023: 🔴 −3.73% → higher real yields weighed on bullion
2022: 🔴 −2.32% → strong USD + aggressive Fed hikes
➡️ Average of last 3 years: 🔴 −0.35%
➡️ Average of last 5 years (2020–2024): 🔴 −1.87%
________________________________________
🔎 Key Insights
• Gentle September bias: Over the last decade, September has skewed slightly negative for gold (mean −1.45%), but the drawdowns are modest compared to risk assets.
• Cycle matters more than calendar: 2020–2023 saw consistent reds as the dollar firmed and real yields rose; 2024 flipped green as rate-cut expectations and central-bank demand underpinned prices.
• Long-term seasonality ≠ last-decade reality: Multi-decade studies often show gold firming into late summer/early autumn (festival/jewelry demand, restocking), but the last 10 years were dominated by policy and yields—diluting that classic pattern.
________________________________________
🚀 Macro & Market Context
• 2019–2020: Trade tensions into COVID—gold corrected in Sep ’19 (−2.6%) and more so in Sep ’20 (−3.7%) after August’s spike to new highs.
• 2021: Fed taper talk + rising real yields → weakest September (−4.6%).
• 2022: King Dollar & rapid hikes → another red September (−2.3%).
• 2023: Real yields kept pressure on bullion (−3.7%).
• 2024: Sentiment flipped on policy expectations and persistent central-bank demand → solid +5.0% September.
________________________________________
🧭 Takeaway
Gold’s September over the last decade has leaned slightly bearish, but mostly in controlled, single-digit moves. The signal isn’t “sell September,” it’s “watch real yields, the USD, and physical flows.” When those line up, the calendar fade loses its bite—as 2024 showed.
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see follow up update on our 4chart idea which is still valid and in play.
We got our Bullish target 3424 last week and finished off with ema5 cross and lock above this level opening 3499, as a open gap and 3424 is now our support gap. If ema5 fails to lock below 3424 we are likely to see our open gap above at 3499 tested.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3424 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3424 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3499
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3499 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3561
BEARISH TARGETS
3347
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3347 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3277
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3277 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3234
3171
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3089
2996
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold rises strongly – Flooded in green👋Hello everyone, let’s take a look at what’s special about OANDA:XAUUSD !
Yesterday, gold continued its strong rally, climbing over 300 pips by the end of the session, fully drenched in green and now trading around $3,447.
The bullish momentum gained further support as the Core PCE m/m index—anticipated in our previous analysis —was released yesterday. The result came in at 0.3% , exactly in line with forecasts and the previous reading.
Since the data matched expectations, the market was not surprised. The USD didn’t surge, leaving room for gold’s stability. The main trend remains bullish, and any pullback could present an opportunity to accumulate more gold.
📈From a technical perspective: Gold is repeating last Friday’s strong rally. If the trend continues, upside momentum is still supported, though a correction is expected beforehand. The 3425 retracement level and 3405 USD support are key areas to watch as potential springboards for the next upward move.
📍Risks to note:
Short-term RSI above 70
Profit-taking from investors
Deeper-than-expected corrections (support levels)
I remain optimistic in this analysis. What about you? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAPDaily Chart Update
Range Break & Gap Confirmation
As anticipated in our previous update, price finally pushed through for a test of 3433, confirming the strength of the upside momentum we discussed. This test has now produced a candle body close gap open for 3564, giving us our next long range target. An EMA5 lock will serve as added confirmation for continuation toward this zone.
Current Outlook
🔹 3433 Tested & Confirmed
Just as we analysed, bulls carried price into 3433. With the ceiling tested, attention now shifts to whether price can sustain above.
🔹 Fresh Gap Toward 3564
The candle close opens a measured long range gap up to 3564. This becomes the new target zone if bullish structure continues to hold.
🔹 EMA5 as Key Confirmation
An EMA5 lock would further solidify momentum and strengthen conviction for follow through toward 3564.
Updated Key Levels
📉 Support – 3272
Remains the pivotal floor. As long as this level holds, downside risk is contained.
📈 Resistance – 3433
Now tested. Bulls will look for a firm hold above to unlock the 3564 gap.
🎯 Next Upside Objective – 3564
Gap target now in play, contingent on EMA5 confirmation.
Thanks as always for your support,
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
EUR/USD at a Breaking Point: 1.1450 Demand in FocusCommitment of Traders (COT)
USD Index (ICE Futures): Non-Commercials reduced both long (-1,370) and short (-1,629) positions. Positioning remains net short on the dollar (11,359 long vs 17,347 short), signaling relative weakness of the greenback.
EUR Futures (CME): Non-Commercials significantly increased long positions (+6,420) and also added shorts (+3,106), but net long exposure remains dominant (252,719 long vs 133,974 short). This reflects renewed bullish interest in the euro.
📌 COT Summary: Institutional flows indicate a bullish bias on EUR and bearish bias on USD, supporting a medium-term long outlook on EUR/USD.
Seasonality
August is historically a weak month for the euro: seasonality shows, on average, a decline in EUR/USD during the second half of the month into early September, followed by a recovery later in Q3.
📌 Seasonal Bias: Slightly bearish in the short term, with potential for a rebound later.
Retail Sentiment
58% of retail traders are short EUR/USD, compared with 42% long.
📌 Contrarian view: This increases the probability of a bullish move, as retail positioning is skewed against the trend.
Technical Context
Structure: EUR/USD is trading at 1.1636, within a range, with a supply zone above 1.1750 and a key demand zone between 1.1520–1.1450.
RSI: Neutral, with no extreme overbought/oversold conditions.
Primary Scenario: Potential further dip towards 1.1520–1.1450, where institutional buyers may re-enter.
Secondary Scenario: If this support breaks, the next target lies in the 1.1350–1.1400 zone.
Key Resistance: 1.1750–1.1800.
📌 Operational View: The market may still release downward pressure in the short term, but the 1.1450–1.1500 area appears strategic for potential long entries aligned with COT and sentiment.
XAUUSD Short: Correction from Current HighsHello, traders! The prior price auction for XAUUSD was contained within a horizontal range, bounded by the Demand zone 2 near 3335. A key pivot point low initiated a strong bullish impulse, resulting in a breakout from this range and establishing the current bullish market structure, which transitioned the market into a new directional phase.
Currently, the price action is being guided by a well-defined ascending channel. The most recent impulse wave has carried XAU to the upper boundary of this channel, which represents dynamic resistance. The auction is now testing this ceiling after a strong rally, a key area where sellers may re-emerge to challenge the bullish initiative.
My scenario anticipates a corrective move from the current highs. The expectation is that the channel's resistance line will hold, leading to a rejection and a downward rotation back towards the channel's support. A failure to break higher would confirm that a short-term correction is likely. The take-profit is therefore set at 3410 points, targeting the confluence of the ascending channel's support line and the 3405 - 3415 demand area. Manage your risk!
XAUUSD – Waiting for the Big Breakout?Another trading week has ended, and the big question is: Where will OANDA:XAUUSD head next?
In recent sessions, gold has staged a strong rally, fueled by a weaker USD and growing expectations that the Fed will soon begin its rate-cutting cycle. On top of that, rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty has kept safe-haven demand intact, supporting the metal’s bullish momentum. Currently, gold is trading around $3,347, moving closer to key resistance.
From a technical perspective, XAUUSD is shaping an ascending triangle, a pattern that often signals trend continuation. Each pullback has been well-supported by EMAs and trendlines, showing buyers remain in control. The $3,450 level stands as the major hurdle — a breakout above it could open the door to fresh highs.
With both fundamentals and technicals aligned, the setup favors further upside.
But what do you think? Will gold deliver a decisive breakout, or surprise traders once again? Share your thoughts in the comments!
XAU/USD – Gold Pushes Toward 3,480 ResistanceHello everyone, last week gold had quite an impressive rally, recording a gain of around +2%, equivalent to more than $70, as the price climbed from the 3,380 area to nearly 3,450. This indicates that buying pressure continues to dominate the market.
Looking at the H2 timeframe, the uptrend remains intact as the price maintains a higher high – higher low structure, combined with trading volume favoring the bulls. The 3,455–3,463 zone is acting as short-term resistance; if broken decisively, gold could extend its rally toward 3,478–3,480. On the other hand, the 3,405 area will serve as a key support; only if an H2 candle closes below this level will the bullish structure face the risk of being invalidated.
The main short-term trend still leans bullish, although some technical pullbacks may occur when approaching strong resistance.
What do you think about this move? Does gold have enough momentum to break resistance and extend its rally? Share your thoughts below!
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – Bullish Breakout or Healthy Pullback?OANDA:XAUUSD continues to trade within a strong long-term bullish channel, currently hovering around $3,450. Price action is compressing between the ascending green channel and the red resistance trendline, suggesting that a decisive move is near. The weekly close will be the main trigger to validate one of two scenarios.
🔶 Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout
If gold secures a weekly close above the red resistance line, bullish momentum is likely to continue with buyers regaining control. This would confirm a breakout from consolidation and align with the broader bullish trend.
First upside target: $3,600 – $3,650 (upper channel resistance)
Next extension target: $3,750 – $3,800, if momentum remains strong and buyers sustain pressure
This scenario would confirm the continuation of the strong uptrend that started in 2023.
🔶 Scenario 2 – Rejection & Correction
If next week’s candle closes below the red resistance line, then rejection is confirmed and a corrective phase becomes more probable. This would signal that sellers are still defending the resistance zone and gold may retrace toward lower support levels.
First downside target: $3,320 – $3,305 (major horizontal + EMA support)
Deeper correction zone: $3,160 – $3,100 (aligned with EMA cluster and channel midline)
Extreme support: $3,025 if bearish pressure accelerates
This would represent a healthy correction within the long-term bullish structure, offering potential re-entry zones for swing traders.
The weekly close is critical. A confirmed breakout above resistance will likely push gold into new highs, while a rejection sets up a pullback toward deeper support levels.
Which scenario will play out ? 1 or 2 ? Let me know with a comment !
GOLD (XAUUSD): Another Breakout Ahead?!
Gold closed on Friday, testing a major horizontal resistance cluster.
Taking into consideration a strong bullish momentum,
the price may violate that as well.
Your next confirmation to buy will be a breakout of the underlined structure
and a daily candle close above 3452.
A bullish continuation to 3492 will be expected then.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold Keeps Searching for New HighsHello everyone, what are your thoughts on OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Gold continues to surprise us one move after another. As the new week opened, the precious metal recorded a historic breakout, trading near the $3,500 level amid ongoing global economic turbulence.
From a technical perspective, XAUUSD maintains a solid bullish structure, breaking past key resistance levels. The EMA 34 and 89 both confirm that there is still plenty of room for further upside. This rally not only reflects the market’s “gold hunting” sentiment but also opens major opportunities for traders who can catch the right wave.
So, how should we trade? At this sensitive stage, buyers may find it difficult to identify an ideal entry point. For sellers, no new top has yet been confirmed. That’s why it may be safer to wait for clearer signals—whether gold sets a new high or establishes fresh support. For short-term traders, make sure you set both SL and TP with a ratio of 1:1 or 1:2.
In addition, there are several news events this week and in the near future that could further impact gold’s trend. I’ll cover these in upcoming analyses, so stay tuned.
And you—what do you think about XAUUSD’s direction? Leave a like if you agree with my view, and drop a comment if you’d like to share your thoughts.
Good luck!
The day after a new higher highHello fellow traders! 👋
It seems like so many times again, the market went in a different direction than you may have expected. 🤷♀️
After multiple positive words from members of the Fed, a rate cut is likely to happen and is getting priced in. 📉 On Friday, July 29, we got some good economic data from the U.S., but the market acted differently. 🤔 Why is this? The data wasn't worse than expected; it was as expected. The market is taking this as a sign—a sign for higher prices. But, and this is a fact, many retail traders aren't. 😥
It's not about confusion; it's about the market (and us as traders) not having priced in all the possibilities. 🤯
The truth is, they are lying to you. They (the government) are telling people and the news that things are about to get fixed and will be good, but they aren't. 🤥 If you think the data we got on Friday is true, think again. Look at the data; you'll see the forecast was as expected, but in reality, the numbers are better than before. Do you get it? The obvious conclusion isn't always the real one. 💡 In my opinion, the U.S. economic data everyone is talking about is much better than many people think because the news is written to make it seem bad. 😒 You can think whatever you want, of course!
Price went up, not down, and a rally was chased. Many stop-loss orders were hit and turned into a cascade of higher prices. 📈 Institutions are buying gold, yes, because the dollar is cheap (?), and a rate cut is coming with a very high probability. 💰 So they buy gold, which results in many people's (and that's a good thing) stop-loss orders being executed. 👏 (sorry)
I've seen it in the past, and you can see it too if you look at my data table. Whenever a very high gold price was reached, a correction followed. 📉
I expect a correction on Monday or Tuesday, and this correction will lead to at least $3418, which is the 0.382 Fibonacci level. In my view, $3403 is the 0.5 level and more realistic. If you look at the table I put in the image, you can see that the day after a high price like we had today, the correction was always at the 0.5 Fibonacci level or more! 📊
Don't think it won't happen; they will trap you in any way they can, such as with fakeouts... 😈
Believe in the market and its structure because, until now, there has never been a day without a correction after a rally like this! 💪
Gold Futures | New Month Setup – ATH on Deck?Price has been bullish all week with no significant pullbacks. Now as we step into a new month, Gold is pressing toward the previous All Time High (green line).
Key Notes:
Market left behind a bullish H4 FVG that could serve as a retracement zone.
With Labor Day Monday (early close for NY), setups may be quieter until Tuesday.
My bias: looking for a possible pullback into the FVG before continuation higher into fresh ATHs.
Watching closely for price action around the previous ATH to confirm breakout or rejection.
GOLD XAUUSD - Pullback Expected before the Next Leg UpGold (XAUUSD) has been on a solid bullish run, consistently pushing higher after each minor retracement. Now, we’re eyeing a potential pullback toward a key support zone at 3420–3400, where buying interest is likely to resurface.
If price action confirms a bounce from this zone, we could see a continuation of the uptrend toward 3450, and if momentum holds, possibly stretching to 3490–3500.
🔻 Trade Setup – Long Opportunity on Pullback
Entry: Buy Gold (XAUUSD) at 3420
Add-on Dip: 3400
Targets: 3450, then 3490–3500 (marked on chart)
Invalidation: Daily close below 3385
📌 Risk/Reward Outlook
This setup presents a tight risk with attractive upside potential. As always, stick to solid risk management and size your positions based on your personal trading plan.
👍 Agree with this view?
Drop a like, leave your comments, and let’s discuss this setup together!
Your feedback keeps the community sharp and growing. 🔥
Happy Trading,
– The InvestPro Team
Gold: rallies as cut nearsInvestors' interest for gold is again on the scene. The price of gold took the up-course during the whole week, while only on Friday it gained around 1%, closing the week at $3.448. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge was posted during the week, revealing inflation in check with PCE in July of 0,2%. This supported market expectations that the actual rate cut could occur in September, as Fed Chair Powell indirectly noted at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
With Friday's strong move, the RSI was pushed further toward the overbought market side. However, at the level of 65, the clear overbought market side has not been reached, leaving some space for the indicator to move toward higher grounds. At the same time, MA 50 continues to slow its divergence from MA200. With still a high distance between two lines, the potential cross is certainly not in store.
This week was positive for the price of gold, in expectation of a Fed rate cut. Still, it should be considered that the week ahead is bringing another two important indicators, PCE and JOLTs, both related to Fed's dual mandate. Any deviation of these indicators from market expectations, might trigger higher volatility. In any case, considering strong push toward the upside, it might expect some profit-taking to take place at the start of the week ahead. In this sense, a short bull-back from current levels is quite possible, however, some stronger move should not be expected.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 01 - Sep 05]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD price increased quite strongly from 3,352 USD/oz to 3,453 USD/oz. The reason for the continued increase in gold price is because investors are still expecting the FED to cut interest rates by 0.25% at the upcoming September meeting, as well as the conflict between the Trump administration and the FED.
Next week, financial markets in the US will be closed for Labor Day on Monday. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its manufacturing PMI data. The PMI is forecast to increase slightly to 48.6 in August from 48 in July. If the forecast is correct, it will have a negative impact on gold prices next week.
In addition, on Friday, the US will release the August non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. If the NFP continues to decline compared to the expected 74,000 jobs, it will force the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which will have a positive impact on gold prices next week. On the contrary, a stronger-than-expected NFP growth, combined with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, could make the market tilt towards the Fed continuing to delay interest rate cuts, causing gold prices to fall next week. However, given the current US economic situation, the August NFP may continue to decline.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price broke the Trendline and it is likely that the price will continue to increase to near the threshold of 3500 USD/oz. In case the price corrects again, it will return to the resistance zone at the threshold of 3370.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,430 – 3,400 – 3,371USD
Resistance: 3,450 – 3,500USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3541 - 3539⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3545
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3369 - 3371⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3365
Daily Outlook – September 2025 (XAUUSD)Hello traders,
Gold closed August with a strong daily close in premium territory, pressing into the 3460–3480 supply. Bulls still control momentum, but September opens with price testing critical levels where continuation or retracement will be decided.
🔹 Daily Structural Zones
Premium Supply Zone (3460–3480) → overhead resistance where sellers may attempt control.
Decision Zone (3400–3380) → first key support, aligned with EMA 21, pivot for continuation or correction.
Mid-Term Demand Zone (3340–3320) → valid Order Block, aligned with EMA 100, stronger structural support.
Liquidity Retest Zone (3260–3240) → liquidity pocket / inducement area, a level where short-term sweeps and reactions may occur.
🔹 EMA Confluence (Daily)
EMA 5 (3409) → immediate bullish guide.
EMA 21 (3370) → inside Decision Zone.
EMA 50 (3349) → near Mid-Term Demand.
EMA 100 (3330) → aligned with Mid-Term Demand Zone.
EMA 200 (3074) → deeper long-term support, outside daily range.
💡 Interpretation: EMAs confirm layered supports. Decision Zone is short-term pivot, Mid-Term Demand is the first true OB, and below it price could sweep the Liquidity Retest Zone.
🔹 Daily Progression Map
Bullish scenario:
Break above Premium Supply (3460–3480) → unlocks Bullish Expansion Target (3520–3550).
Further continuation → Extended Bullish Target (3600).
Bearish scenario:
Rejection at Premium Supply → pullback into Decision Zone (3400–3380, EMA 21 confluence).
If Decision Zone fails → test into Mid-Term Demand OB (3340–3320, EMA 100 confluence).
Break below 3320 → liquidity sweep into Liquidity Retest Zone (3260–3240) before deeper targets are considered.
🔹 Daily Bias – September
Bullish → while above 3400 (Decision Zone).
Neutral → range between 3480 and 3400.
Bearish shift → only if D1 closes below 3320.
🔹 Conclusion
Gold opens September in premium territory, facing resistance at supply.
Breakout above 3480 → continuation to 3520–3550 and 3600.
Rejection → correction into Decision Zone (3400–3380), then Mid-Term Demand OB (3340–3320).
Below 3320 → expect liquidity play around 3260–3240 before any deeper move.
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XAUUSD Analysis Today Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3460.Dear colleagues, the idea is generally simple and clear.
In the upward movement of waves “3”, “4”, “5” the price should update the maximum of waves ‘D’ and “B” 3448.87.
This means that we should expect the price in the area of 3460.
The target is quite close and I think there is reason to believe that it will be reached next week.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!