Black FridayUp to 80% OFF

Yen

Weekly FOREX Forecast: USDCAD, USDCHF & USDJPY Are Bullish!Welcome to Part 2 of The Weekly FOREX FORECAST! Part 1 covered USD, EU, GU, AU, NU in the previous video. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index, USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Long
by RT_Money
USD/JPY: Is Tokyo’s Holiday Trap Ready to Snap?The USD/JPY pair currently navigates a minefield of divergent policies and geopolitical maneuvering. Japan’s currency hovers near critical lows, pressured by aggressive fiscal strategies and enduring U.S. economic resilience. Traders face a complex landscape defined by imminent Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention and shifting interest rate expectations. Geostrategy: The Tactical Holiday Window Strategic timing defines the current currency defense playbook. The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday creates a classic liquidity vacuum. Thin markets allow authorities to move prices sharply with minimal capital expenditure. Takuji Aida confirms Japan holds excessive foreign reserves to fund such active intervention. A surprise operation during this low-volume window would maximize the tactical shock of Yen-buying. Japan’s leadership likely views this week as the optimal moment to strike. Macroeconomics: The Takaichi Doctrine Domestic politics drive the Yen’s recent depreciation. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi champions aggressive spending alongside low interest rates. Takuji Aida advocates stimulating the economy despite the risks of increased debt issuance. Markets interpret these moves as a commitment to monetary looseness. Investors fear Japan’s fiscal discipline is crumbling under Takaichi’s growth strategy. Consequently, capital flees the Yen for higher-yielding U.S. assets. Economics: The Fed’s Mixed Signals U.S. economic data complicates the trajectory of the currency pair. Federal Reserve policymaker John Williams suggests rates could fall in the near term. Futures markets price a distinct possibility of a December cut. However, persistent inflation creates conflicting signals for the dollar. Traders await U.S. retail sales data to gauge genuine consumer strength. Robust consumption would delay Fed easing, exerting further upward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Management & Leadership: A Narrative Pivot Leadership rhetoric in Tokyo has shifted from sanguine acceptance to combative defense. Initially, the administration downplayed the negatives of a weak Yen. Now, policymakers openly fret over inflationary side effects. Rising import costs threaten domestic political stability. This swift change in tone indicates the administration recognizes the liability of uncontrolled depreciation. Management strategy has pivoted toward active market control to protect political capital. Business Models: The Export Dichotomy The weak Yen forces a bifurcation in Japanese corporate models. Exporters in automotive and heavy industries reap windfalls from repatriated earnings. Conversely, domestic-focused models suffer from soaring energy and raw material costs. Aida notes that the demerits of a weak currency now rival its benefits. Firms must rapidly adapt pricing architectures to survive this volatility. The era of passive currency acceptance is over for Japanese importers. Industry Trends: Retail Meets Liquidity Global retail trends directly collide with currency flows this week. U.S. Black Friday sales serve as a critical bellwether for the American economy. Strong sales would reinforce the "higher for longer" U.S. rate narrative. Simultaneously, Japanese markets face holiday closures, creating dangerous liquidity gaps. These disconnects foster distinct industry trends where volatility spikes become the norm rather than the exception. Technology & Cyber: Algorithmic Risks Algorithmic trading systems thrive on current market instability. The cyber dimension of FX trading becomes critical during low-liquidity holiday weeks. Automated systems may exacerbate price swings if Japan intervenes unexpectedly. Traders must utilize advanced tech platforms to detect sudden order flow anomalies. The disparity between Tokyo’s manual decisions and New York’s automated execution speeds creates a high-risk environment. Science & Innovation: The Cost of Progress A weak currency erodes the purchasing power of the scientific sector. Japanese research institutions rely heavily on imported technology and rare materials. A depreciating Yen drastically increases the foundational cost of innovation. While exporters gain cash, the price of scientific advancement rises. Fiscal stimulus must specifically target these R&D gaps to prevent a lag in global competitiveness. High-Tech & Patent Analysis: The IP Imbalance Japan’s high-tech sector faces a double-edged sword. Patent analysis suggests Japanese IP becomes cheaper for foreign entities to license. This trend could accelerate cross-border technology transfers out of Japan. However, acquiring foreign patents becomes prohibitively expensive for Japanese firms. The Takaichi administration must address this intellectual property imbalance. Strengthening the Yen is vital for sustaining high-tech acquisition power. Conclusion The USD/JPY pair stands at a volatile intersection of policy and market forces. Japan possesses the capital to intervene, and the U.S. holiday provides the perfect tactical cover. Traders must remain hyper-vigilant as economic data and geopolitical strategy converge.
Long
by the5erstrading
USDJPY Gains Consolidate Below Yearly HighsFrom a weekly perspective, USDJPY is trading around the mid-zone of a duplicated uptrending channel extending from the April 2025 lows, just below the 157-resistance. A bullish bias persists within the sequence of consecutive higher highs and higher lows toward year-end. However, overbought momentum signals are beginning to emerge, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead of the holiday period. USDJPY Scenarios • Upside: A daily close above the 157 mark could extend gains toward 161, confirming or reversing a potential breakout to record levels. This aligns with DXY strength, should it hold above the 101.80 mark and retrace back to the mid-zone of its 17-year channel between 103 and 105. • Downside: Given overbought momentum levels last seen in January 2025, caution is warranted near the recent highs. Pullback risks may extend down to the upper boundary of the April–November channel near 154.80, offering another bullish rebound opportunity. Failing that, a deeper retracement back inside the channel could unfold toward the 153 zone first, followed by 150. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREX.com
Inverse Head & Shoulders on USDJPY (Quarterly Chart)Japanese yen is pretty technical on the charts Its very good for education This time I spotted for you a textbook Giant Inverse Head & Shoulders reversal bullish pattern It was built at the bottom of the move with three consecutive troughs with the deepest in the middle called the Head and the side parts called the Shoulders The dotted trendline connecting the peaks of the inverted Head is the Neckline The latter is a key barrier for the bullish trigger Price broke above it in 2022 and quickly pushed beyond the 151 level Then a classic textbook pullback unfolded to accurately retest the broken Neckline After that price resumed its uptrend to test the crucial resistance at 160.40 built from the peak of distant 1990! It was a die hard barrier as price was rejected and fell back into the 140 area And now again we are heading to retest that solid barrier Back to the pattern The target for the Inverse Head & Shoulders is set at the depth of the Head Neckline minus Heads bottom added to the Neckline It is located at 174 a potential gain of a whopping 11 percent Price should stay above the Neckline beyond 127 before reaching the target otherwise the pattern becomes invalidated And if we zoom in you can see a wide empty space without strong barriers until price hits the next major resistance at 277.79 the peak of the 80s That means JPY could lose almost 73 percent of its value to USD
Education
by aibek
Intervention risk levels of USD/JPY setup USD/JPY is pushing into the top half of 155, and that’s the level both banks and policymakers care about. Goldman Sachs says the yen can still weaken near-term, but the upside from here is limited because intervention becomes more likely the higher the pair goes. Credit Agricole notes that Japan’s Ministry of Finance has already issued warnings, though its intervention gauge is only at 4 out of 7, not yet at the point where Tokyo typically steps into the market. Every tick above 155 increases the probability of verbal or direct intervention. If price clears 156 decisively, those warnings could intensify. If the move becomes fast or disorderly, the risk of actual intervention rises sharply. Possible weak support sits at 38.2% fib level noted on the chart. If the pair breaks below that level, it could be the first sign that intervention talk is starting to influence price action.
by BlackBull Markets
1
CADJPY carry trade gains traction with iH&S, targets 118+The CADJPY carry trade is in focus as the yen stays weak and risk appetite lifts CAD toward a bigger breakout from an inverse head-and-shoulders base. Japan’s new PM, Takaichi, leans pro‑stimulus, while the BOJ signals no December hike, leaving JPY structurally soft. At the same time, Canada benefits from improved risk tone and a stable BOC policy, which supports CAD strength. Key drivers Structural JPY weakness: A stimulus-first stance and low-rate BOJ keep carry demand elevated, but intervention talk remains a headline risk. CAD tailwinds: US reopening-driven risk-on, oil support, and BOC on hold underpin the loonie. Technicals: An inverse H&S with a neckline projection toward 116–117, with a recent retest near 108–109 holding the line and RSI having room to push higher. Levels: supports at 110.00, then 109.50/108.30, and resistances at 111.50, 112.20, and 115.10, with the measured move pointing toward 116.5–118 from the neckline break. Bias stays long above 110. Buy dips, invalidate below 108, and scale targets at 111.50, 112.20, and 115.10, leaving a runner at 116.5–118 if the first neckline peak holds. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
USD/JPY: One the Edge - Momentum Builds Toward 155.00⚠️The USDJPY pair successfully broke and closed above a significant horizontal daily resistance level last week. Following this breakout, the market retested the broken structure and subsequently started to consolidate. This indicates the formation of a horizontal trading range on a 4-hour timeframe. For a confirmed long entry, I am awaiting a bullish breakout, specifically a candle close above the resistance level of this range. This would provide a strong intraday signal. A bullish continuation would then be anticipated, with an initial target of at least the 155.00 level.
by linofx1
5
USDJPY Intraday Technical AnalysisUSDJPY Intraday Technical Analysis - 10 Nov 2025 USDJPY at 154.039 (12:25 PM UTC+4) coiling in a tight range before its next major move. Market Context: Wyckoff distribution pattern forming after a strong uptrend. Dow Theory shows trend exhaustion. Daily/4H View: 1D shows a spinning top candle, signaling indecision. 4H chart reveals a clear range between 153.80 and 154.25, with RSI bearish divergence. 1H/30M View: A tight Bollinger Band squeeze on the 30M chart confirms imminent volatility. Price is oscillating around a flat VWAP. 15M/5M View: A symmetrical triangle is forming, indicating a breakout is near. Price action is choppy, ideal for range-bound scalps. Range-Bound Short Setup: Entry: 154.20-154.25 (Range High). SL: 154.40. TP: 154.00, 153.85. Range-Bound Long Setup: Entry: 153.80-153.85 (Range Low). SL: 153.65. TP: 154.00, 154.20. Breakout Long Setup: Enter on a confirmed 1H close > 154.30. SL: 154.10, TP: 154.60. Breakdown Short Setup: Enter on a confirmed 1H close < 153.75. SL: 153.95, TP: 153.40. Key Levels: Resistance: 154.25, 154.50, 154.80. Support: 153.80, 153.50, 153.20. Indicators: 4H RSI bearish divergence, 30M BB Squeeze, flat VWAP, bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross on 1H Ichimoku. Risk: High risk of sharp moves (intervention risk). Wait for confirmation on breakouts. This is an educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade with a plan.
by sunya
USDJPY Direction for new week As you can see in the chart: Scenario 1: We have a downtrend line that has been broken and the price is pulling back to it. The equivalent of this in the RSI indicator is that we have confirmation of the price increase. Scenario 2: The price is inside an ascending channel and is currently above the middle of the channel. On the other hand, in the RSI indicator, the price is above 50 and is between the two drawn lines. Conclusion: Given that we do not have specific news about the dollar or the Japanese yen, and also that the price is between two nearby resistances and supports, it makes sense to wait until the London session for the price direction. Don't forget about capital management. Good luck and be profitable.
by mansour1978
Today's behavior of the Dollar-Yen news timeHello Red levels are good resistances and green levels are good support near the price. The downtrend line has also been drawn. Today we have important dollar news on the status of non-farm payrolls, which, given the history of the announced numbers, seems to be in the direction of weakening the dollar and strengthening the dollar-yen currency pair. So I expect a good reaction to the current resistance and finally confirmation to enter the sell position has been drawn. Don't forget about money management. Good luck.
Short
by mansour1978
1
EJ Makes Massive Descent, Could Further Falls Come?Here is OANDA:EURJPY on the 4Hr Chart and after making a new Higher High @ 178.818, has created a Lower Low @ 176.098, surpassing the most recent Higher Low @ 176.629. This is a Break in Trend and we should suspect price to fall further on EJ if price can: - Confirm Trend Change by printing a Lower High Now on the chart, based on the Lower Low, the Fibonacci Tool lays out a couple favorable areas First, being the last Higher Low @ 176.629 which lays right below the 23.6% Retracement level @ 176.740. Secondly, the 50% Retracement Level @ 177.458 where there was Consolidation before the decline in price. *This deep of a pullback could threaten the Bearish momentum built up from the break down and creating the Lower Low. Fundamentally, the Yen seen a rise in strength after a couple key things happened: - BOJ held Interest Rates unchanged @ .5% - Toyko CPI numbers came out hotter than expected with a Forecast of a .1% increase to 2.6% with Actual coming in at 2.8%, a .3% increase! *This gives the BOJ to hike rates to help with inflation taking off too hot and this could very well strengthen the Yen more!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
4
Can The Yen Fight Inflation While Rates Stay Low?The AUD/JPY currency pair's surge above 101.00 is a direct result of two opposite forces. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strong because inflation is unexpectedly high, forcing the RBA to keep its interest rate at 3.60%. This high rate attracts global investment, as traders move money to Australia for better returns. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak because the BoJ maintains an extremely low interest rate, near zero, to boost its economy. This wide gap in rates makes the AUD/JPY a favorite for the "Carry Trade," where investors earn the difference, pushing the pair higher. Beyond just interest rates, geopolitics is playing a crucial role. The recent US-China trade deal, which saw a truce on certain tariffs and export controls on rare earth minerals, strongly benefits the commodity-linked AUD. Australia is a major exporter of these minerals. This trade calm reduces global risk and boosts demand for Australian goods. Conversely, the JPY suffers from political choices, as Japan's new government plans aggressive spending. This combination of low rates and high spending ensures the JPY remains weak, reinforcing the strong case for continued AUD/JPY strength.
Long
by the5erstrading
1
Fifth straight gain for USDJPY - can bulls clear 153 before CPI?USD/JPY is advancing for a fifth consecutive day after the ruling LDP confirmed Sanae Takaichi as its new leader. Traders are preparing for possible increased fiscal spending, and this is weighing on the yen. However, upward momentum could be tested later this week ahead of the US CPI release on Friday. Momentum indicators remain constructive for now, with the RSI holding above 60 and price action potentially supported by the rising 20-day moving average near 150.40.
by BlackBull Markets
USD/JPY turns lowerFollowing the overnight gains, the USD/JPY has now turned negative on the day after failing to hold above Friday's hammer candle. The pair hit resistance around the 151.00 level, and has now fallen below the head of the hammer candle from Friday's range at 150.64. Short-term bias bearish now while it holds below 150.64. Next target for bears is 150.0 and then liquidity below Friday's range at 149.37. If the selling gathers momentum, then why stop there? Why not dip back to 148.00 where 200 day meets trend line? Fundamentally, the yen has been caught between a hawkish leaning BOJ and dovish fiscal expectations following the Japanese parliamentary vote last week where hard-line conservative Sanae Takaichi is almost certain to become Japan’s first female prime minister. It is worth keeping a close eye on Japanese markets. The yen could rally if BoJ hawks become more vocal again, which is what I would be expecting. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREX.com