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CHF/JPY AnalysisCHFJPY (4-hour, FXCM) TradingView Analysis: Current Price: 193.101 Open: 192.991 High: 193.243 Low: 192.937 Change: +0.110 (+0.06%) Recent Trend: Modest upward movement in the current 4-hour candle, with the price near today's high, indicating bullish momentum. Volatility: The high-low range is relatively narrow, signaling low immediate volatility. Potential Signals: A price break above 193.243 could continue the bullish trend. Failure to stay above 193.000 might signal a short-term correction. Target Zones: Blue Lines: Represent key target zones drawn on the chart. These zones are based on the open gap area highlighted with a circle, suggesting areas where price might react or aim to fill the gap. Recommendation: Watch for a breakout above or below the current range and monitor the blue target zones for increased price action or reversals.
Short
by TheMotivationalProfessor
USDJPY Fundamental OutlookWith the Dollar rapidly declining against a basket of other major currency's and higher chances of Hasset becoming the next fed chair, we could see further downside on dollar pairs. I don't think the move is done yet and we could trade lower towards 98.000 in the future, cause we definitly havn't priced in everything yet cause I don't see Trump letting this chance to put a Dovish fed chair in place slide. The yen has gained some strength Wednesday morning, showing that people are more interested in high probability rate hikes, then strong demand for government bond. Hence why I see the yen climb higher to 5.845 (Previous weeks high) Putting this together USDJPY has some more downside room this week, possibly trading to 153.600
Short
by OzkarMe
USDJPY Fundamental UpdateUSDJPY slowly dropped lower following a bearish DXY. JPY remained around the same level. The dollar saw a significant drop due to a shift from a 35% expectation to an 85% expectation that Hasset will become the next fed chair. The expectations rose after Trump again mentioned that he already knows who he wants as a new fed chair early in 2026. Why are people looking at Hasset to replace Powell? Trump is know to be in heavy favor of rate cuts and since Powell doesn't listen to Trump's recommendations, everybody is looking at Hasset since he has a dovish stance and will very likely start easing, which is ofcourse what trump wants. What is next for the dollar? Since this is big news for the dollar and will probably cause multiple rate cuts in december, the markets are going to price these in more and more the closer we get to the replacement of the fed chair. This means medium-term bearish pressure on the dollar, however we already saw a 0.4% drop today on the DXY and traded under previous monthly lows. This could cause a reaction before we see further downside this month to the 98.500-98.000 range. We also saw bad ADP news pressuring the dollar even more, bringing the probability even higher for a rate cut in december. The Yen stayed steady and didn't move a lot since yesterday. Investors are still cautious with yen longs cause of the JP10Y demand. Yen longs for now are not on the table and I will wait for further development to see how traders position going into high probability rate hikes in december.
by OzkarMe
2
Yen Flexes as Dollar Wobbles, Traders Ramp Up Rate-Hike BetsThe yen came into Monday looking calm… and then proceeded to bench-press the dollar. The FX:USDJPY pair slid under ¥155, hitting a session low of ¥154.65, after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda dropped one of the most powerful phrases in global FX: “We will weigh the pros and cons of tightening.” In Tokyo-speak, that’s basically suggesting “rate hike incoming!” The greenback instantly shed over 100 pips (every day trader’s dream), a half-percent haircut that reminded traders just how exquisitely sensitive the yen is to hints of policy change after 30 years of ultra-loose money. The next day, however, was a bit different. Early Tuesday morning, the pair gained back about half of what it lost the day before. Still, some things to note about Monday's slide: It wasn’t just FX that reacted. The yen’s surge: Knocked the Nikkei FX:JPN225 down 2%, Pushed Japanese government bond yields to 17-year highs, And forced traders to reprice Japan’s entire risk landscape in real time. 🕰️ The Market Has Been Waiting for This Moment FX traders have been staring at the FX:USDJPY for months, waiting for a sign — any sign — that Japan was finally ready to pivot. In the meantime, officials have made a sport out of verbal interventions: “We are watching FX moves with urgency.” “We will not tolerate excessive yen weakness.” “We have tools, and we are not afraid to use them.” Translation: Stop shorting the yen, it stresses us out. With Ueda openly weighing a rate hike at the December 19 Bank of Japan meeting, traders are scrambling to unwind one of the most crowded trades in global macro: the “short yen” position. A country that’s really truly reluctant to raise rates is suddenly hinting at liftoff — or at least a step towards it. 📉 Dollar Wobbles as Macro Crosswinds Build While Japan is drifting away from negative-rate territory, the US dollar faces a catalyst-packed December that could amplify or counter the yen’s breakout. Four major US data releases stand between now and the BoJ’s meeting: Dec 5: Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE) Dec 10: CPI inflation report Dec 10: Fed interest-rate decision Dec 16: Nonfarm payrolls (US jobs report) If the Fed so much as hums a dovish note, yen strength could accelerate fast. If Powell surprises with a hawkish tone, the dollar may find a floor. Either way, this is the first time in years that both sides of the dollar-yen have meaningful rate catalysts. 🔄 A Trend Reversal in the Making? Big macro traders — the same funds that spent the last year squeezing every drop out of the yen carry trade — are taking profits, reducing leverage, and even tiptoeing into long-yen bets. When one of the world’s great one-way trades starts wobbling, liquidity thins, and volatility spikes. This is precisely the environment where this volatile beast can swing 100 pips before your coffee cools. And if Japan genuinely signals the start of a tightening cycle? Carry unwinds can get violent. One central bank hint today can become a multi-month trend tomorrow. 🧭 So What Happens Next? The yen’s flex this week may be just the opening act. Everything now hinges on: BoJ clarity on Dec 19 How soft (or not) US inflation comes in Whether the Fed’s tone shifts on Dec 10 And how the labor market behaves into year-end Watch the economic calendar and get ready for action. FX volatility is back on the menu. Now that it’s happening, everyone’s asking the same question: We’ll leave it to you : Was this a one-day pop — or the start of the yen’s long-awaited comeback tour? Share your views in the comments!
by TradingView
12
USD/JPY: Seeking a Swing LowThe daily chart of USD/JPY shows an established uptrend, though prices have been retracing lower for the past seven trading days. I am therefore on the lookout for a swing low in anticipation of a move back to at least 157. The daily RSI (2) has not yet reached oversold and momentum on the lower timeframes is currently bearish. But with the 155 handle, 155.20 weekly VPOC and monthly pivot point at 155.62 nearby for potential support, perhaps a swing low is near. Bulls could seek dips towards 155 in anticipation of a move top 157. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
Long
by City Index
USDJPY Gains Consolidate Below Yearly HighsFrom a weekly perspective, USDJPY is trading around the mid-zone of a duplicated uptrending channel extending from the April 2025 lows, just below the 157-resistance. A bullish bias persists within the sequence of consecutive higher highs and higher lows toward year-end. However, overbought momentum signals are beginning to emerge, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead of the holiday period. USDJPY Scenarios • Upside: A daily close above the 157 mark could extend gains toward 161, confirming or reversing a potential breakout to record levels. This aligns with DXY strength, should it hold above the 101.80 mark and retrace back to the mid-zone of its 17-year channel between 103 and 105. • Downside: Given overbought momentum levels last seen in January 2025, caution is warranted near the recent highs. Pullback risks may extend down to the upper boundary of the April–November channel near 154.80, offering another bullish rebound opportunity. Failing that, a deeper retracement back inside the channel could unfold toward the 153 zone first, followed by 150. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREX.com
USD/JPY: Is Tokyo’s Holiday Trap Ready to Snap?The USD/JPY pair currently navigates a minefield of divergent policies and geopolitical maneuvering. Japan’s currency hovers near critical lows, pressured by aggressive fiscal strategies and enduring U.S. economic resilience. Traders face a complex landscape defined by imminent Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention and shifting interest rate expectations. Geostrategy: The Tactical Holiday Window Strategic timing defines the current currency defense playbook. The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday creates a classic liquidity vacuum. Thin markets allow authorities to move prices sharply with minimal capital expenditure. Takuji Aida confirms Japan holds excessive foreign reserves to fund such active intervention. A surprise operation during this low-volume window would maximize the tactical shock of Yen-buying. Japan’s leadership likely views this week as the optimal moment to strike. Macroeconomics: The Takaichi Doctrine Domestic politics drive the Yen’s recent depreciation. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi champions aggressive spending alongside low interest rates. Takuji Aida advocates stimulating the economy despite the risks of increased debt issuance. Markets interpret these moves as a commitment to monetary looseness. Investors fear Japan’s fiscal discipline is crumbling under Takaichi’s growth strategy. Consequently, capital flees the Yen for higher-yielding U.S. assets. Economics: The Fed’s Mixed Signals U.S. economic data complicates the trajectory of the currency pair. Federal Reserve policymaker John Williams suggests rates could fall in the near term. Futures markets price a distinct possibility of a December cut. However, persistent inflation creates conflicting signals for the dollar. Traders await U.S. retail sales data to gauge genuine consumer strength. Robust consumption would delay Fed easing, exerting further upward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Management & Leadership: A Narrative Pivot Leadership rhetoric in Tokyo has shifted from sanguine acceptance to combative defense. Initially, the administration downplayed the negatives of a weak Yen. Now, policymakers openly fret over inflationary side effects. Rising import costs threaten domestic political stability. This swift change in tone indicates the administration recognizes the liability of uncontrolled depreciation. Management strategy has pivoted toward active market control to protect political capital. Business Models: The Export Dichotomy The weak Yen forces a bifurcation in Japanese corporate models. Exporters in automotive and heavy industries reap windfalls from repatriated earnings. Conversely, domestic-focused models suffer from soaring energy and raw material costs. Aida notes that the demerits of a weak currency now rival its benefits. Firms must rapidly adapt pricing architectures to survive this volatility. The era of passive currency acceptance is over for Japanese importers. Industry Trends: Retail Meets Liquidity Global retail trends directly collide with currency flows this week. U.S. Black Friday sales serve as a critical bellwether for the American economy. Strong sales would reinforce the "higher for longer" U.S. rate narrative. Simultaneously, Japanese markets face holiday closures, creating dangerous liquidity gaps. These disconnects foster distinct industry trends where volatility spikes become the norm rather than the exception. Technology & Cyber: Algorithmic Risks Algorithmic trading systems thrive on current market instability. The cyber dimension of FX trading becomes critical during low-liquidity holiday weeks. Automated systems may exacerbate price swings if Japan intervenes unexpectedly. Traders must utilize advanced tech platforms to detect sudden order flow anomalies. The disparity between Tokyo’s manual decisions and New York’s automated execution speeds creates a high-risk environment. Science & Innovation: The Cost of Progress A weak currency erodes the purchasing power of the scientific sector. Japanese research institutions rely heavily on imported technology and rare materials. A depreciating Yen drastically increases the foundational cost of innovation. While exporters gain cash, the price of scientific advancement rises. Fiscal stimulus must specifically target these R&D gaps to prevent a lag in global competitiveness. High-Tech & Patent Analysis: The IP Imbalance Japan’s high-tech sector faces a double-edged sword. Patent analysis suggests Japanese IP becomes cheaper for foreign entities to license. This trend could accelerate cross-border technology transfers out of Japan. However, acquiring foreign patents becomes prohibitively expensive for Japanese firms. The Takaichi administration must address this intellectual property imbalance. Strengthening the Yen is vital for sustaining high-tech acquisition power. Conclusion The USD/JPY pair stands at a volatile intersection of policy and market forces. Japan possesses the capital to intervene, and the U.S. holiday provides the perfect tactical cover. Traders must remain hyper-vigilant as economic data and geopolitical strategy converge.
Long
by the5erstrading
Weekly FOREX Forecast: USDCAD, USDCHF & USDJPY Are Bullish!Welcome to Part 2 of The Weekly FOREX FORECAST! Part 1 covered USD, EU, GU, AU, NU in the previous video. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index, USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Long
by RT_Money
Inverse Head & Shoulders on USDJPY (Quarterly Chart)Japanese yen is pretty technical on the charts Its very good for education This time I spotted for you a textbook Giant Inverse Head & Shoulders reversal bullish pattern It was built at the bottom of the move with three consecutive troughs with the deepest in the middle called the Head and the side parts called the Shoulders The dotted trendline connecting the peaks of the inverted Head is the Neckline The latter is a key barrier for the bullish trigger Price broke above it in 2022 and quickly pushed beyond the 151 level Then a classic textbook pullback unfolded to accurately retest the broken Neckline After that price resumed its uptrend to test the crucial resistance at 160.40 built from the peak of distant 1990! It was a die hard barrier as price was rejected and fell back into the 140 area And now again we are heading to retest that solid barrier Back to the pattern The target for the Inverse Head & Shoulders is set at the depth of the Head Neckline minus Heads bottom added to the Neckline It is located at 174 a potential gain of a whopping 11 percent Price should stay above the Neckline beyond 127 before reaching the target otherwise the pattern becomes invalidated And if we zoom in you can see a wide empty space without strong barriers until price hits the next major resistance at 277.79 the peak of the 80s That means JPY could lose almost 73 percent of its value to USD
Education
by aibek
Intervention risk levels of USD/JPY setup USD/JPY is pushing into the top half of 155, and that’s the level both banks and policymakers care about. Goldman Sachs says the yen can still weaken near-term, but the upside from here is limited because intervention becomes more likely the higher the pair goes. Credit Agricole notes that Japan’s Ministry of Finance has already issued warnings, though its intervention gauge is only at 4 out of 7, not yet at the point where Tokyo typically steps into the market. Every tick above 155 increases the probability of verbal or direct intervention. If price clears 156 decisively, those warnings could intensify. If the move becomes fast or disorderly, the risk of actual intervention rises sharply. Possible weak support sits at 38.2% fib level noted on the chart. If the pair breaks below that level, it could be the first sign that intervention talk is starting to influence price action.
by BlackBull Markets
1
CADJPY carry trade gains traction with iH&S, targets 118+The CADJPY carry trade is in focus as the yen stays weak and risk appetite lifts CAD toward a bigger breakout from an inverse head-and-shoulders base. Japan’s new PM, Takaichi, leans pro‑stimulus, while the BOJ signals no December hike, leaving JPY structurally soft. At the same time, Canada benefits from improved risk tone and a stable BOC policy, which supports CAD strength. Key drivers Structural JPY weakness: A stimulus-first stance and low-rate BOJ keep carry demand elevated, but intervention talk remains a headline risk. CAD tailwinds: US reopening-driven risk-on, oil support, and BOC on hold underpin the loonie. Technicals: An inverse H&S with a neckline projection toward 116–117, with a recent retest near 108–109 holding the line and RSI having room to push higher. Levels: supports at 110.00, then 109.50/108.30, and resistances at 111.50, 112.20, and 115.10, with the measured move pointing toward 116.5–118 from the neckline break. Bias stays long above 110. Buy dips, invalidate below 108, and scale targets at 111.50, 112.20, and 115.10, leaving a runner at 116.5–118 if the first neckline peak holds. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
USD/JPY: One the Edge - Momentum Builds Toward 155.00⚠️The USDJPY pair successfully broke and closed above a significant horizontal daily resistance level last week. Following this breakout, the market retested the broken structure and subsequently started to consolidate. This indicates the formation of a horizontal trading range on a 4-hour timeframe. For a confirmed long entry, I am awaiting a bullish breakout, specifically a candle close above the resistance level of this range. This would provide a strong intraday signal. A bullish continuation would then be anticipated, with an initial target of at least the 155.00 level.
by linofx1
5
USDJPY Intraday Technical AnalysisUSDJPY Intraday Technical Analysis - 10 Nov 2025 USDJPY at 154.039 (12:25 PM UTC+4) coiling in a tight range before its next major move. Market Context: Wyckoff distribution pattern forming after a strong uptrend. Dow Theory shows trend exhaustion. Daily/4H View: 1D shows a spinning top candle, signaling indecision. 4H chart reveals a clear range between 153.80 and 154.25, with RSI bearish divergence. 1H/30M View: A tight Bollinger Band squeeze on the 30M chart confirms imminent volatility. Price is oscillating around a flat VWAP. 15M/5M View: A symmetrical triangle is forming, indicating a breakout is near. Price action is choppy, ideal for range-bound scalps. Range-Bound Short Setup: Entry: 154.20-154.25 (Range High). SL: 154.40. TP: 154.00, 153.85. Range-Bound Long Setup: Entry: 153.80-153.85 (Range Low). SL: 153.65. TP: 154.00, 154.20. Breakout Long Setup: Enter on a confirmed 1H close > 154.30. SL: 154.10, TP: 154.60. Breakdown Short Setup: Enter on a confirmed 1H close < 153.75. SL: 153.95, TP: 153.40. Key Levels: Resistance: 154.25, 154.50, 154.80. Support: 153.80, 153.50, 153.20. Indicators: 4H RSI bearish divergence, 30M BB Squeeze, flat VWAP, bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross on 1H Ichimoku. Risk: High risk of sharp moves (intervention risk). Wait for confirmation on breakouts. This is an educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade with a plan.
by sunya
USDJPY Direction for new week As you can see in the chart: Scenario 1: We have a downtrend line that has been broken and the price is pulling back to it. The equivalent of this in the RSI indicator is that we have confirmation of the price increase. Scenario 2: The price is inside an ascending channel and is currently above the middle of the channel. On the other hand, in the RSI indicator, the price is above 50 and is between the two drawn lines. Conclusion: Given that we do not have specific news about the dollar or the Japanese yen, and also that the price is between two nearby resistances and supports, it makes sense to wait until the London session for the price direction. Don't forget about capital management. Good luck and be profitable.
by mansour1978
Today's behavior of the Dollar-Yen news timeHello Red levels are good resistances and green levels are good support near the price. The downtrend line has also been drawn. Today we have important dollar news on the status of non-farm payrolls, which, given the history of the announced numbers, seems to be in the direction of weakening the dollar and strengthening the dollar-yen currency pair. So I expect a good reaction to the current resistance and finally confirmation to enter the sell position has been drawn. Don't forget about money management. Good luck.
Short
by mansour1978
2
EJ Makes Massive Descent, Could Further Falls Come?Here is OANDA:EURJPY on the 4Hr Chart and after making a new Higher High @ 178.818, has created a Lower Low @ 176.098, surpassing the most recent Higher Low @ 176.629. This is a Break in Trend and we should suspect price to fall further on EJ if price can: - Confirm Trend Change by printing a Lower High Now on the chart, based on the Lower Low, the Fibonacci Tool lays out a couple favorable areas First, being the last Higher Low @ 176.629 which lays right below the 23.6% Retracement level @ 176.740. Secondly, the 50% Retracement Level @ 177.458 where there was Consolidation before the decline in price. *This deep of a pullback could threaten the Bearish momentum built up from the break down and creating the Lower Low. Fundamentally, the Yen seen a rise in strength after a couple key things happened: - BOJ held Interest Rates unchanged @ .5% - Toyko CPI numbers came out hotter than expected with a Forecast of a .1% increase to 2.6% with Actual coming in at 2.8%, a .3% increase! *This gives the BOJ to hike rates to help with inflation taking off too hot and this could very well strengthen the Yen more!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
4