US natgas prices slide 2% on smaller-than-expected decline in output

U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Wednesday on a smaller-than-expected decline in daily output so far this month, after a 10% price jump on Tuesday forced some traders to cover short positions.

Gas futures NG1! for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.9 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $3.368 per million British thermal units.

Analysts said heating and cooling demand should remain low across much of the country in coming weeks, allowing utilities to keep adding more gas into storage than normal for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles were already around 4% above the five-year (2020-2024) average.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 104.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record high of 105.8 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to slide even further to a preliminary two-week low of 103.9 bcfd on Wednesday, down from 105.0 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 105.2 bcfd during the prior seven days. That daily output decline was smaller than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Energy traders noted those output reductions were due in part to maintenance on some gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Kinder Morgan said it will perform a turbine exchange at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26 that will reduce mainline capacity to around 2.2 bcfd.

Meteorologists projected the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through June 6.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will drop from 99.4 bcfd this week to 94.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big liquefied natural gas export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.

The LNG feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to maintenance reductions at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas, and brief unplanned reductions at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.

Looking ahead, energy traders said they expect LNG feedgas to remain below April's record high in June with Cheniere planning to conduct about three weeks of maintenance on a couple of liquefaction trains at its 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana from around June 2-23.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a six-week high of around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe and a five-week high of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKMc1) benchmark in Asia.