Normal Distribution CurveThis Normal Distribution Curve is designed to overlay a simple normal distribution curve on top of any TradingView indicator. This curve represents a probability distribution for a given dataset and can be used to gain insights into the likelihood of various data levels occurring within a specified range, providing traders and investors with a clear visualization of the distribution of values within a specific dataset. With the only inputs being the variable source and plot colour, I think this is by far the simplest and most intuitive iteration of any statistical analysis based indicator I've seen here!
Traders can quickly assess how data clusters around the mean in a bell curve and easily see the percentile frequency of the data; or perhaps with both and upper and lower peaks identify likely periods of upcoming volatility or mean reversion. Facilitating the identification of outliers was my main purpose when creating this tool, I believed fixed values for upper/lower bounds within most indicators are too static and do not dynamically fit the vastly different movements of all assets and timeframes - and being able to easily understand the spread of information simplifies the process of identifying key regions to take action.
The curve's tails, representing the extreme percentiles, can help identify outliers and potential areas of price reversal or trend acceleration. For example using the RSI which typically has static levels of 70 and 30, which will be breached considerably more on a less liquid or more volatile asset and therefore reduce the actionable effectiveness of the indicator, likewise for an asset with little to no directional volatility failing to ever reach this overbought/oversold areas. It makes considerably more sense to look for the top/bottom 5% or 10% levels of outlying data which are automatically calculated with this indicator, and may be a noticeable distance from the 70 and 30 values, as regions to be observing for your investing.
This normal distribution curve employs percentile linear interpolation to calculate the distribution. This interpolation technique considers the nearest data points and calculates the price values between them. This process ensures a smooth curve that accurately represents the probability distribution, even for percentiles not directly present in the original dataset; and applicable to any asset regardless of timeframe. The lookback period is set to a value of 5000 which should ensure ample data is taken into calculation and consideration without surpassing any TradingView constraints and limitations, for datasets smaller than this the indicator will adjust the length to just include all data. The labels providing the percentile and average levels can also be removed in the style tab if preferred.
Additionally, as an unplanned benefit is its applicability to the underlying price data as well as any derived indicators. Turning it into something comparable to a volume profile indicator but based on the time an assets price was within a specific range as opposed to the volume. This can therefore be used as a tool for identifying potential support and resistance zones, as well as areas that mark market inefficiencies as price rapidly accelerated through. This may then give a cleaner outlook as it eliminates the potential drawbacks of volume based profiles that maybe don't collate all exchange data or are misrepresented due to large unforeseen increases/decreases underlying capital inflows/outflows.
Thanks to @ALifeToMake, @Bjorgum, vgladkov on stackoverflow (and possibly some chatGPT!) for all the assistance in bringing this indicator to life. I really hope every user can find some use from this and help bring a unique and data driven perspective to their decision making. And make sure to please share any original implementaions of this tool too! If you've managed to apply this to the average price change once you've entered your position to better manage your trade management, or maybe overlaying on an implied volatility indicator to identify potential options arbitrage opportunities; let me know! And of course if anyone has any issues, questions, queries or requests please feel free to reach out! Thanks and enjoy.
Bell
Bell Curve LevelsScript which plots the % change from the open and overlays the 1, 1.5, 2 & 3% levels on the chart.
The bell curve offers a quantifiable clue to the persistent percentages the price moves in the fx market. A simple histogram will convey the %change in bins
this indicator just reflects that with levels on the chart.
Can be an aide for intraday or longer term levels.
Feel free to message me with any queries.
The Curve by Atilla YurtsevenThe Curve by Atilla Yurtseven
This indicator uses real empirical rule (68 - 95 - 99.7 rule). This is not a Bollinger Band indicator. I know BB is a very good indicator however it's unreliable.
First of all, I believe that price is not in a normal distribution. When you plot the histogram, you can not see a nice bell curved shape. It's know that bollinger bands simply uses a simple moving average and add standard deviation of closing price over it. TheCruve in the other hand, converts price to the nice bell shaped normal distribution and it never repaints. If it does, so there is a bug :)
The Curve indicator does not repaint. It's just there at the opening of the new bar! You can use The Curve with any time frame you like and any securities/pairs. Even for stocks. Longer look back periods, give better results.
Inputs:
Look Back Period: This is for calculating probability. Longer periods give better results.
Use Trend: When you enable Trend option, all lines will be calculated based on a Linear Regression trend
What do lines / ranges mean?
1st lines range is 68%. There is 68% probability that bar will close in this range.
2nd lines range is 95%. There is 95% probability that bar will close in this range.
3rd lines range is 99.7%: There is 99.7% probability that bar will close in this range.
FYI: This is an indicator that I have developed for myself. You can use it, apply or not to apply it to your trades. Keep in mind that, you are responsible for all your loses (or wins). Risk is 100% yours. Please use / try "The Curve" only if you accept this condition.
Have fun :)
Atilla Yurtseven
