BTC Bulls Break the FlagBitcoin price has been pushing higher.
After that impulsive leg, momentum started to cool off, forming a tight descending flag.
This pullback isn’t weakness, it’s a pause.
Sellers are trying to push price lower, but notice how shallow the retracement is. Buyers are still defending every dip.
Now, price is breaking out of the flag with strength, a clear signal that buyers are stepping back in. That breakout candle shows intent, volume rising.
I am anticipating the next impulsive leg higher toward the 117,000 target.
Trade ideas
BITCOIN Has this huge Bearish Divergence started the Bear Cycle?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to be under heavy pressure in the past 4 weeks since the October 06 All Time High (ATH) and finds itself battling to hold the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. That trend-line has been basically the Support of this Bull Cycle since March 2023, and acted as the most optimal long-term buy level.
** Has the Bull Cycle ended? **
However this Bull Cycle may have very well come to an end already as the 1W RSI has been long exhibiting the same kind of bearish pattern (Lower Highs trend-line), while also having completed the 4-year Cycle, that all previous Bull Cycles formed on their respective tops. This is a huge Bearish Divergence formation as it goes against the price's Higher Highs, indicating trend exhaustion.
As you can see that 1 RSI Lower Highs trend-line formed the November 2021, December 2017 and December 2013 Cycle Tops. Even worse, the current Lower Highs trend-line has been going on since the March 11 2024 High. If BTC closes a 1W candle below its 1W MA50, it has greater probabilities to confirm the start of the new Bear Cycle as all previous ones did on such break-out.
** If yes, how much can it drop? **
Now, it might not be too relevant at this time yet, but as far as how low the Bear Cycle can go to before it bottoms, there are three potential levels of interest where long-term investors can Dollar Cost Average (DCA).
The January 2015 Bear Cycle bottom was formed on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Then the December 2018 Bear Cycle bottom was formed on the 1W MA200 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous bottom. The last Bear Cycle has its bottom below the 1W MA200 and on the next Fib in line, the 0.5 level. The decline on each Bear Cycle that followed decelerated and was less than the previous (-86.70% to -84.19% to -77.22%).
If the new Bear Cycle has already started then the first level for a potential bottom is again the 0.382 Fib around $58000 where contact may potentially be made with the 1W MA200 as well. If it follows the previous Bear Cycle and bottoms on the 0.5 Fib, it will also be below the 1W MA200 around $45000. If on the other hand it goes a Fib level further, as the last two Cycles did, we are looking at the 0.618 Fib as a potential strong bottom candidate around $35000. That will also be a -70.76% decline from the Top, which will be -7% less than the previous Bear Cycle, which is also the difference that the 2022 Bear Cycle had from the 2018 one.
So what do you think? Has the Bull Cycle ended already and if yes, how low can the new Bear Cycle go? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN (BTC/USD): Rise to 120,000 Confirmed!There is a strong possibility that 📈Bitcoin will continue its bullish trend this week.
Following the completion of a correctional movement on a 4-hour time frame,
which has been confirmed by a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH).
The price will probably ascend to the $120,000 resistance level, potentially reaching the current all-time high.
Bitcoin - This chart is crumbling!⛔️Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) creates a massive top:
🔎Analysis summary:
All the previous cycles on Bitcoin have been lasting about 1,000 days. And exactly three years ago, Bitcoin retested the previous all time high, starting the next bullrun. If we soon see bearish confirmation on Bitcoin, this crypto will lead to another insane bloodbath.
📝Levels to watch:
$100,000 and $50,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
BTCUSD Short: Sellers Aiming for a Pullback Toward 109,600Hello, traders! Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to trade within a broader corrective structure after losing momentum from its previous bullish phase inside the Ascending Channel. The breakdown from the channel shifted the short-term sentiment from bullish to neutral-bearish, with sellers now defending the upper boundary of the current Supply Zone. After the strong rejection from the 118K–116K region, BTC entered a range-bound phase between 109,600 (Demand Zone) and 116K (Supply Line). This range represents a period of accumulation or distribution — depending on how the price reacts at its edges.
Recently, the price retested the upper boundary of the Supply Zone, where a fake breakout occurred, followed by selling pressure — a clear sign that supply remains dominant. Now, the market is showing early signs of potential correction back toward the Demand Line near 109,600, where buyers previously stepped in to defend the trend.
If the bearish momentum continues, I expect a move down toward the Demand Zone around 109,600–107,700. This area aligns with both a key pivot point and the ascending demand line, which could act as a springboard for another bullish rebound. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above 116K would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook and signal a possible continuation toward higher resistance levels. For now, my bias remains bearish-to-neutral, anticipating a short-term correction before a potential bullish reaction from the demand area. Manage your risk!
Bitcoin: There Are Better Prices To Buy.Bitcoin bounce to 113K resistance, which I previously described as a more relevant area to watch for being that it is in the middle of the range. IF momentum continues from here, the 116K to 118K area resistance is the next potential inflection point to prepare for. IF price confirms a bearish reversal at the current level of 113K, there is a minor support at 109K to watch for a bullish reversal. Either way, Bitcoin has not changed much in terms of structure, it is still in a broader bullish consolidation which means a breakout into the 130Ks is still within reason over the coming weeks.
For this reason, support levels should be given more priority and higher expectation, while resistance levels should be considered more likely to break. The key to timing these turns is WAITING for price action to confirm in some way. For example, 113K previously saw a swift rejection, but at the moment is sitting strong. While this level may be a bearish inflection point, there is NO reason to sell anything because there is no confirmation. A bearish pin bar or inside bar would be something to look for IF you were interested in an aggressive short. Otherwise it is best to stay out of Bitcoin's way in my opinion.
On top of that, it is important to pay attention to the current economic environment. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, also again in December. Plus Chairman Powell has signaled that they are going to begin their balance sheet "expansion" or quantitative easing efforts. This means printing money in the face of an elevated inflationary situation. I am not an economist, but it sounds like we are going to be swimming in cheap money very soon which can only be a positive for any type of anti inflationary asset like Bitcoin.
While we can easily see brief pull backs come out of no where, there is very little to support any type of bearish argument in the broader sense. I believe buying pullbacks still offers a higher probability and better reward/risk. This means watching for attractive levels like the 109K and 105K areas Or if price breaks higher, watch old resistance levels to act as new supports (like the 118K area IF 120K is reached again). Either way, make sure to wait for confirmations, and define risk from there.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin Approaches Key Resistance — Bulls Eye 117K BreakoutHello traders, I want to share my view on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). The current market structure shows a gradual recovery phase following the previous breakdown from a large range near the 118,000 level. After a sharp decline and retest of the 106,400 support zone, the market found strong buying interest, forming a new ascending channel structure. This setup has been characterized by steady higher highs and higher lows, confirming the presence of short-term bullish momentum. At this stage, BTCUSD is approaching a key resistance level around 116,000, which aligns with both the upper boundary of the current channel and the prior horizontal resistance zone — a region that previously acted as a strong supply area. This confluence suggests that the market could face a short-term pause or pullback before attempting another bullish impulse. My primary scenario anticipates that if the price holds above the support line near 113,000–113,500, buyers may maintain control and push toward the 117,000 target (TP1) — the next logical resistance level and the top of the channel. However, a clear rejection from 116,000 without follow-through could open the door to a corrective pullback toward 110,500–111,000 for another demand test. In my opinion, the structure remains bullish in the short term, as long as the lower boundary of the ascending channel holds. Therefore, I continue to favor a long scenario with a TP at 117,000, expecting a potential breakout or test of the upper resistance. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
BTC Accumulates Before Breakout – Market Tension BuildingHello everyone, Bitcoin is trading around $110,965 – down slightly by 0.05%, but the price structure indicates this is not a sign of weakness; rather, it is an accumulation phase before the market chooses its next direction. Narrow ranges in recent sessions reflect a waiting mindset – the market is gathering liquidity on both sides in preparation for a significant breakout.
On the 4H timeframe, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are visible in both directions. The $111,500–$112,200 zone acts as temporary resistance, where sellers continuously defend. On the opposite side, the $108,000–$108,800 range remains a key buyers’ line – every touch sees strong absorption. The Ichimoku cloud is flat and thin, showing the market is “compressing force,” which typically precedes an explosion within the next 24–48 hours. To confirm the next upward move, BTC needs a stable 4H close above $112,000.
From a news perspective, the environment slightly favours buyers. US bond yields are cooling, weakening the USD and encouraging capital into risk assets. The PCE report – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – will be released on 25/10. If below expectations, markets will quickly price in an earlier Fed rate cut, often a strong catalyst for Bitcoin. Additionally, CoinShares data shows spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have returned after three consecutive weeks of outflows – a clear sign institutions are quietly accumulating.
My preferred scenario remains accumulation and rebound. If $108,000 holds, BTC could rise to $112,200 and potentially extend targets to $114,000–$118,000 in the short term. Only a break below $108,000 with heavy selling would force a deeper pullback to the $106,000 liquidity zone before forming a new bottom.
What do you think – will the next breakout push up or will a sharp dip sweep liquidity before rising?
Why Most Traders Exit Too Early — Psychology of Taking Profits1. Introduction
Most traders obsess over finding the perfect entry.
But what really separates professionals from everyone else is how they exit.
Closing trades too early kills more profits than bad setups ever will.
The problem might be one's psychology.
2. The Two Fears That Control Exits
When managing profits, every trader battles two emotions:
Fear of Loss – “ What if the PRICE reverses?”
Fear of Regret – “What if it keeps running after I close?”
Both pull you in opposite directions. One makes you take profit too soon; the other makes you hold too long.
The balance between them defines your discipline.
3. Why Most Traders Close Too Early
After entering a good trade, emotions rise. As profit builds, so does anxiety.
Instead of trusting their plan, traders imagine losing what they’ve just gained, so they close the trade prematurely.
In doing so, they trade emotion, not logic.
It feels safe in the moment, but long term it destroys reward-to-risk consistency.
4. The Solution: Predefine the Exit
The only way to remove hesitation is to plan exits before entering.
Decide in advance:
– Target levels based on structure or risk-reward.
– Conditions that justify partial profits.
– Situations that allow for trailing stops.
When these decisions are made beforehand, emotions can’t interfere mid-trade.
You act according to a plan, not a feeling.
Visual idea: Screenshot-style mockup of trade plan with marked “Entry,” “Partial,” “Final Target.”
5. The Real Lesson
Profit-taking should be systematic, not emotional.
Your job isn’t to catch every little move, it’s to execute your plan without hesitation.
BTCUSD – Long-Term Uptrend Still Intact👋Hello everyone! What’s your view on BITSTAMP:BTCUSD right now?
In this analysis, I’ll share my long-term perspective on Bitcoin.
Currently, BTC is trading around $111,600. Although the market has seen some short-term pullbacks, the overall weekly structure still shows a strong medium- to long-term bullish trend.
On the chart, price is reacting well to the support zone around $106,000 – $105,000, which was a previously broken resistance area. This zone now aligns with the 34-week EMA, forming a solid technical base that continues to support the bullish outlook. As long as Bitcoin holds above this area, its growth potential remains optimistic.
From a technical standpoint, BTC is likely to consolidate within the $106,000 – $120,000 range before making a potential breakout toward the $130,000 – $150,000 region. This scenario is reinforced by growing institutional inflows, consistent ETF accumulation, and a generally positive market sentiment.
On the fundamental side, expectations of a Fed rate cut in the coming quarter and a shift toward looser monetary policy continue to support risk assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, BTC reserves on exchanges are decreasing, and whale accumulation is rising — both bullish signals that strengthen the long-term uptrend.
I remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook.
What about you — do you believe BTC will soon return to the race and reach new highs? 💬 Share your thoughts below!
Bitcoin Forms Head and Shoulders — Correction 107,500 in PlayHello traders! I’d like to share my view on the current market structure for Bitcoin. After a prolonged period of bullish momentum and multiple impulsive rallies, the market has entered a corrective phase. The price action has formed a clear Head and Shoulders pattern beneath the major resistance zone near 121,700, signaling growing selling pressure. Currently, BTC is trading within a short-term descending structure, staying below both the resistance line and the Seller Zone. The recent rejection from the right shoulder area confirms that sellers remain in control, and the market is now moving toward the Buyer Zone, located around 107,500.In my opinion, this movement represents a continuation of the ongoing correction rather than a full trend reversal. I expect the price to decline into the Buyer Zone, completing the right shoulder and reaching the TP1 target near 107,500. If the market finds strong support in this demand area and forms a confirmed reversal structure, it could mark the end of the corrective phase and initiate the next major bullish leg. A successful bounce from this level would open the way for a potential rally back toward the 114,000–115,000 resistance range.This setup provides a clear trading plan — I remain bearish in the short term, looking for a potential bullish reversal from the lower boundary of the structure. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
#BTCUSDT(BITCOIN): Swing Buy, Price Heading Towards Previous HH!Bitcoin is nearing a previous high of 126K. As of the latest data, it trades around 112K, with a 24-hour volume of $38 billion and a market capitalisation of $2.1 trillion. However, before reaching that level, it’s likely to correct towards our entry zone between 108K and 110K. This level is significant because we anticipate a substantial increase in market volume. Historical data shows that similar corrections have led to a 15–20% increase in trading activity.
On-chain metrics indicate a 7% rise in active wallets over the past week, and institutional inflows totalled approximately $1.3 billion in the last seven days. The Bitcoin dominance index currently sits at 54%, suggesting continued interest despite broader market fluctuations.
This short-term view allows us to observe the price accumulating and on the verge of distribution. Based on your trading style, you can select one of three targets:
- Target 1: 118K (conservative)
- Target 2: 122K (moderate)
- Target 3: 126K (aggressive)
We wish you the best of luck and trade safely. If you find our work helpful, please like and comment on our ideas.
Team Setupsfx_
BTCUSD Rebound Setup: Buyers Target 114K Resistance ZoneHello traders, I want to share with you my opinion about Bitcoin (BTCUSD). Bitcoin continues to move within a well-defined descending channel, forming a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This confirms that the market remains under bearish control, with sellers actively defending each retest of the resistance line. The Resistance Level at 115,600 has acted as a major cap for bullish attempts, rejecting multiple upside moves over the past few weeks. Recently, BTC retested the Buyer Zone near 108,000–109,000, where strong demand emerged, preventing further downside. This level aligns with both the Support Line of the channel and the horizontal Support Level at 106,400, making it a critical zone for potential bullish reactions. At the current stage, the price is showing early signs of a corrective rebound from the Buyer Zone. I believe this recovery could push the price toward the Seller Zone and Resistance Line, with a short-term target (TP1) around 114,000. However, this move should be viewed as a correction within a broader bearish trend unless BTC manages to break and hold above the 115,600 resistance area. My scenario suggests that BTC could face selling pressure once it reaches the upper boundary of the channel, possibly leading to another bearish leg unless bulls confirm a breakout. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Easy method to determine next target based on candle closeHey traders today we are going to look in how to determine Daily Bias. Its actually not that complicated how many people thinks.
Please forget about higher highs, and higher lows, channels and moving averages. Yes these can be also used, but we will be looking at the market in terms where is the liquidity and we will be determining the bias based on candle closes which tell us where the liquidity is resting.
We will look at the Daily bias, but as I mentioned this many times in my posts - price is fractal so you can use this at any timeframe. But, If I can give you recommendations look for Higher timeframe bias on Daily and Weekly and H4 / H1 Structure and M15 entries.
This post will be about continuation setups in a trend, I will touch a bit reversal because it's part of setup on LTF in the continuation. Something will be shown on bearish examples something bullish I hope you can use imagination for both sides.
⁉️ Where is the liquidity ? Always follow the Daily / Weekly candle close.
📈 Continuation
If todays daily candle closed above previous days high and its still not reaching the key level, then liquidity is above todays high. Why ? Because people have intentions to sell highs to early, so and price will most likely go there. So we are bullish. Bullish Close 📈 Reversal
If todays candle wicked above previous day high, but closed below , then we can expect liquidity is below Previous days low. Why? Because mostl likely traders entered fake high break out they put SL below days low. It's signs of reversal. Every significant reversal wicked above PDH and closed inside, if not seen on PDH than its on weekly. ‼️ Yes, Its that simple - this is how I predict my bias for the setups.
There is obviously little bit more regarding the market context, because I want to be always selling highs and buying lows. Hence there must but pullback deep enough. I have explained how to buy low and sell highs in this post below. 🔗 Click the picture to learn more 👇 This is not about catching every significant highs and lows, you don't need it to be profitable. We are looking for the high probability trend continuation setups. We can catch highs and lows in the trend. After the stop hunt.
🧪In downtrend you want sell after stop hunt of short term highs 🧪In the uptrend you want be buying after stop hunts of short term lows I have explained more about stop hunts in this post. 🔗 Click the picture to learn more 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/1J6LLshN-The-Art-of-the-Stop-Hunt-Trading/ Now, If we know the bias based on the Daily / Weekly candle close our goal is to position ourself in the right time for the continuation setup which will be during the lower timeframe reversal.
📌 Reversal Setup
first lets have a look to the reversal. We want see a candle high being taken and closed below. In that case draw on liquidity is below the daily low. Sign of reversal. So we can position ourselves in a trade as described on the picture, wick above and close inside is not enough for the signifcant HTF reversal. But its enough for our continuation setup,
📌 Continuation setup
We want to see bullish candle close above previous days high and not liquidity taken above that wick. Then we can assume that liquidity is still resting above and we want to position ourselves during the LTF reversal in the direction of the HTF liquidity. same case will be for this bearish example where we can see how candles closed below the previous days low and last low was not swept hence we can expect price to visit that low again, we have spotted potential reversal by wicking above the candles high and close below and than we can position ourselves to the short and target daily lows. 📌 Continuation LTF reversal timing
same case now you must already see it bullish close above PDH and that high was not swept so liquidity is still above , next day is inside candle once price dips below inside candle low we cans spot reversal setup on LTF and by creation of order block we enter the position during the NY session manipulation 📌 No Stop hunt = No trade
if liquidity was not taken don't enter. Yes you can miss a trade it doesnt happen always, but if it doesnt happen it's not your setup so you didnt miss anything. On this example you can see that we had almost same setup. Bullish daily candle close. High was not swept, and than 2 inside candles. 3 candle manipulated lows and another candle was expansion. Now still focus the the picture above 2nd candle that candle is a range you are entering it after that range was manipulated. Look how price reached 50% of that range , retraced and than it went full range. Its Trading model 1 and Model 2. You mostly get 2 chances to trade it. Trading ranges is in my opinion least subjective approach and unlike diagonal drawings or multiple various pattern it has defined rules. I have described this strategy in details in this post below. 🔗 Click the picture to learn more 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT.P/PkQJvVm4-Complete-system-for-Day-Swing-Traders/ 📌 Final example for today - Schematics
Now try it alone - step by step
1) How are candles closing
2) Was the Liquidity on the low taken ? No - price might go there - Im bearish
3) Lets wait for the LTF reversal - bearish this scheme was actually traded and posted here on Tradingview as a Continuation setup Model 1 & 2 🔗 Click picture below to learn how price action developed 👇 💊 Here are few more examples based on this trading logic
1️⃣ GBPUSD Daily range - Continuation setup Model 1 & 2
🔗 Click picture below to learn how price action developed 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/VSZwqjUj-GBPUSD-Daily-CLS-Range-Key-Level-OB-Distribution-Phase/ 2️⃣ AUDUSD Daily range - Continuation setup Model 1 & 2
🔗 Click picture below to learn how price action developed 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/YzC7vNOf-AUDUSD-I-Daily-CLS-range-I-Manipulation-I-Short/ 3️⃣ DOGE Daily range - Continuation setup Model 1 & 2
🔗 Click picture below to learn how price action developed 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DOGEUSDT.P/t48YbkXb-DOGE-Daily-range-I-Key-Level-FVG-Setup-is-ready/ Final words
Is this holy grail ? Almost.
Why is this approach great ? It's mechanical system for analysis - No subjective guessing.
Does it prevent me from losses ? No, I can make and I sometimes I do mistakes in analysis, Im not perfect.
Dont trust me , Im just a guy from the internet. Verify it by yourself and see if you take some of it to your trading arsenal.
Adapt useful, Reject useless and something specifically your own.
David Perk aka Dave Fx Hunter
BITCOIN This is what separates 128k from 104k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 weeks and only days after it got rejected there. A 1D candle closing above it will be a strong bullish signal.
As BTC has been trading within a Megaphone pattern similar to the December 2024 - April 2025 one, a closing above the 1D MA50 might put the structure in a similar situation as April 17. As you can see that Megaphone also had a 1D MA50 rejection preceding the break-out and before that also, two Lower Lows near the 1W MA0 (red trend-line).
What it hasn't had (so far?) is a clear touch of the 1W MA50 (as on April 07) and a 1D MACD Higher Lows Bullish Divergence.
As a result, both scenarios are open for now. Until it closes above the 1D MA50, a 1W MA50 test remains possible around $104000. A closing above the 1D MA50 though strengthens the probability of a 1.1 Fibonacci extension rally at $128000.
What do you think is more likely to happen? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BTCUSD Short: Targeting 108,000 Demand ZoneHello, traders! Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has recently transitioned from a prolonged bullish structure into a corrective phase after facing strong rejection from the 116,000 Supply Zone. The market previously traded inside a well-defined Ascending Channel, forming a steady sequence of higher highs and higher lows — a classic bullish formation.However, after testing the upper boundary of the channel and the Pivot Point, BTC failed to sustain bullish momentum. The breakout attempts above the supply zone turned out to be fake breakouts, showing exhaustion among buyers. Since then, the market has shifted its tone and started to form a descending structure, moving below the Supply Line that now acts as dynamic resistance.
Currently, the price is pushing lower from the mid-range of the channel toward the Demand Zone, located between 108,000 and 107,700. This area has previously served as a strong support base that triggered impulsive bullish reversals in the past.
In my opinion, BTC is likely to extend its bearish correction toward the 108,000–107,700 demand area. A successful test and strong reaction from this zone could mark a potential bullish reversal, confirming demand absorption and the end of the correction phase. However, if sellers maintain control and manage to break decisively below 107,700, the market may open the way for a deeper decline toward the 106,000 level. As long as the price remains below the Supply Line, short-term bearish pressure prevails. I’m currently bearish to neutral, looking for price action signals around the demand area to confirm whether a new upward impulse is about to begin. Manage your risk!
BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs. USD) chart Pattern..BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs. USD) chart..
Here’s the breakdown of what’s visible:
The wedge is narrowing downward, suggesting price compression.
The breakout projection line (blue arrow) shows an upside target.
Current price (near wedge bottom): around $111,750.
The wedge top resistance area: around $113,500–114,000.
The measured move target (length of the widest part of the wedge projected upward) gives a target zone near $120,000–118,000.
✅ Projected Target Zone:
$12,0000 – $118,000 (USD)
⚙ Confirmation Needed:
Breakout above $113,500 with strong volume.
Retest of breakout zone holding as support.
BTCUSD | Consolidating Below $110K Amid Bearish Pressure ₿BTCUSD – MARKET OVERVIEW | Consolidating Below $110K Amid Bearish Pressure ₿
Bitcoin continues to show a bearish momentum, having stabilized below $110.36K, which supports the outlook for a potential move lower toward $106.20K.
For now, the price is expected to consolidate between $110.30K and $106.20K until a breakout occurs.
A confirmed 4H candle close below $106.20K would signal further bearish continuation toward $102.64K.
However, if Bitcoin closes a 4H candle above $110.37K, the structure would shift to bullish, targeting $113.80K initially.
📊 Key Technical Levels
Pivot Line: $110.36K
Support: $106.21K · $102.64K · $98.95K
Resistance: $113.80K · $116.47K · $120.60K
💡 Outlook:
BTCUSD remains bearish while below $110.36K, with potential downside toward $106.20K.
A confirmed 4H close below $106.20K would extend the correction to $102.64K,
while a 4H close above $110.37K would shift the bias to bullish toward $113.80K and beyond.
BITCOIN and the 'myth' behind following the Global SupplyA lot of talk is being thrown around lately regarding the M2 Global Supply (black trend-line) and how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) will follow it upwards as it explodes. Those claims have intensified especially in the past 2 weeks as an argument to support BTC's recovery following the decline from its $126k Top.
However, history shows that the two don't have to be correlated. In fact, during the past two Cycles, BTC topped at least 105 days (15 weeks) before the Global M2 did. Especially during the previous Cycle (2021), BTC has broken well below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and stayed under up until the M2 peaked also. Note that the 1W MA50 is what has (so far) supported BTC's current correction.
As a result, no hopes of recovery can be rest upon a currently rising Global Liquidity. And if BTC's Cycle Top was 2 weeks ago, the Global Liquidity might peak 15 weeks from that, around January 19 2026 (possibly around the time the stock market peaks too).
But what do you think? Do you think Bitcoin will catch up to the rising M2 Global Supply or will continue its decline into a new Bear Cycle as it has historically happened? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BTC WAIT FOR THE CRACK!After months of repeated warnings throughout the year about crypto's vulnerability, we’ve now arrived at a critical inflection point.
If Bitcoin breaks down here, it could trigger a waterfall decline — potentially into a bidless market.
This is a major level. What happens next could define the next phase for the entire crypto space.
Stay alert.
It's better to be out of the market wishing you were in than out of the market wishing you were out!
No one is forcing you to be in the market!
Click boost, like, and subscribe! Let's get to 5,000 followers! ))
BTC/USD Timeframe 4H ..🔍 Chart Overview
Pair: BTC/USD
Timeframe: 4H (Bitstamp feed)
Current price: ≈ $110,300
Pattern: Downward channel breakout → retest → bullish continuation expected
Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud showing price above Kumo with bullish bias.
Support zone: around $108,000–$109,000 (highlighted pink zone).
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⚙ Technical Setup
This looks like a bullish breakout of a descending channel:
Price broke out of the downtrend channel.
It’s currently retesting the upper boundary of that channel (around $109–110k).
If the retest holds, bullish continuation targets are projected based on the height of the channel.
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📈 Target Calculation (Based on Chart)
The chart marks two “Target Points”:
1. First Target Point: around $120,000
→ This is a near-term target based on the first measured move after breakout.
2. Second Target Point: around $125,000–$126,000
→ This aligns with a full measured move or Fibonacci extension (1.618 zone).
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🎯 Target Summary
Target Level (approx) Type Notes
Target 1 $120,000 Conservative First major resistance / take-profit zone
Target 2 $125,000–$126,000 Aggressive Full channel projection / secondary target
Support Zone $108,000–$109,000 Retest area Should hold for bullish setup to remain valid
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🧭 Plan Summary
Bullish bias remains valid as long as BTC stays above $108k–$109k.
Break below $108k could invalidate the breakout and suggest deeper retracement toward $105k.
Upside targets: $120k → $125k
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