27 ALERT INFY EQ | Manual JSON Only//@version=6
indicator("27 ALERT INFY EQ | Manual JSON Only", overlay=true)
//────────────────────────────────────────────
// 🔧 USER INPUTS
//────────────────────────────────────────────
symbol_name = input.string("INFY", "Equity Symbol (for labels only)")
tradeMode = input.string("Intraday", "Trade Mode (for dashboard)", options= )
// Paste your exact Dhan payloads below (must be single-line strings)
json_buy = input.string('{"secret":"hWMIU","alertType":"multi_leg_order","order_legs": }', "BUY JSON Script")
json_sell = input.string('{"secret":"hWMIU","alertType":"multi_leg_order","order_legs": }', "SELL JSON Script")
//────────────────────────────────────────────
// 📊 SIGNAL LOGIC (Heikin Ashi + MACD)
//────────────────────────────────────────────
ha_close = (open + high + low + close) / 4.0
var float ha_open = na
ha_open := na(ha_open ) ? (open + close)/2.0 : (ha_open + ha_close )/2.0
isBull = ha_close > ha_open
isBear = ha_close < ha_open
= ta.macd(close, 12, 26, 9)
macdBull = macdLine > signalLine
macdBear = macdLine < signalLine
//────────────────────────────────────────────
// 🚀 ENTRY / EXIT (One-Candle Confirmation)
//────────────────────────────────────────────
var bool inTrade = false
var string lastEvent = "Waiting..."
buyCondition = isBull and macdBull and not inTrade
sellCondition = isBear and macdBear and inTrade
if buyCondition
inTrade := true
lastEvent := "BUY"
label.new(bar_index, low, "🟢 BUY " + symbol_name, style=label.style_label_up, color=color.new(color.green, 0))
alert(json_buy, alert.freq_once_per_bar_close)
if sellCondition
inTrade := false
lastEvent := "SELL"
label.new(bar_index, high, "🔴 SELL " + symbol_name, style=label.style_label_down, color=color.new(color.red, 0))
alert(json_sell, alert.freq_once_per_bar_close)
//────────────────────────────────────────────
// 🧭 DASHBOARD
//────────────────────────────────────────────
var table dash = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 6, border_width=1)
if barstate.isfirst
table.cell(dash, 0, 0, "📊 " + symbol_name + " EQ", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 60), text_color=color.white)
table.cell(dash, 0, 1, "Symbol")
table.cell(dash, 0, 2, "Position")
table.cell(dash, 0, 3, "Trend")
table.cell(dash, 0, 4, "Mode")
table.cell(dash, 0, 5, "Alert Type")
trendTxt = isBull ? "BULLISH" : isBear ? "BEARISH" : "NEUTRAL"
if barstate.islast
table.cell(dash, 1, 1, symbol_name)
table.cell(dash, 1, 2, inTrade ? "LONG" : "FLAT")
table.cell(dash, 1, 3, trendTxt)
table.cell(dash, 1, 4, tradeMode)
table.cell(dash, 1, 5, "MANUAL JSON")
Indicators and strategies
Triple EMA (5, 8, 13) + Confirmed Alerts with SoundThis indicator uses three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA 5, 8, and 13) to generate buy and sell signals when the EMAs are properly aligned and not touching. Signals are confirmed on candle close and can trigger customizable sound alerts directly from the TradingView alert panel.
PDH & PDL Levels This indicator mark previous day high and low lines on current day. Lines will start at opening of the market and will remain there till end of the day. Lines are marked with PDH and PDL labels
Liquidity Grab + RSI Divergence═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
LIQUIDITY GRAB + RSI DIVERGENCE INDICATOR
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📌 OVERVIEW
This indicator identifies high-probability reversals by combining:
• Liquidity sweeps (stop hunts)
• RSI divergence confirmation
• Filters false breakouts automatically
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🟢 BUY SIGNAL (Green Triangle Up)
REQUIRES BOTH CONDITIONS:
1. Liquidity Grab Below Previous Low
• Price breaks BELOW recent low
• Candle CLOSES ABOVE that low
• Traps sellers who shorted the breakdown
2. Bullish RSI Divergence
• Price: Lower Low (LL)
• RSI: Higher Low (HL)
• Shows weakening downward momentum
➜ Result: Potential bullish reversal
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🔴 SELL SIGNAL (Red Triangle Down)
REQUIRES BOTH CONDITIONS:
1. Liquidity Grab Above Previous High
• Price breaks ABOVE recent high
• Candle CLOSES BELOW that high
• Traps buyers who bought the breakout
2. Bearish RSI Divergence
• Price: Higher High (HH)
• RSI: Lower High (LH)
• Shows weakening upward momentum
➜ Result: Potential bearish reversal
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📊 VISUAL INDICATORS
Main Signals:
🔺 Large Green Triangle = BUY (Liq Grab + Bullish Div)
🔻 Large Red Triangle = SELL (Liq Grab + Bearish Div)
Reference Levels:
━ Red Line = Previous High Level
━ Green Line = Previous Low Level
Additional Markers (Optional):
○ Small Green Circle = Liquidity grab low only
○ Small Red Circle = Liquidity grab high only
✕ Small Blue Cross = Bullish divergence only
✕ Small Orange Cross = Bearish divergence only
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⚙️ SETTINGS
1. Lookback Period (Default: 20)
• Range: 5-100
• Sets how far back to identify previous highs/lows
• Higher = fewer but stronger levels
• Lower = more frequent but weaker levels
2. RSI Length (Default: 14)
• Range: 5-50
• Standard RSI calculation period
• 14 is industry standard
3. RSI Divergence Lookback (Default: 5)
• Range: 3-20
• Controls pivot point sensitivity
• Higher = fewer divergence signals
• Lower = more divergence signals
4. Show Labels (Default: ON)
• Toggle BUY/SELL text labels
• Disable for cleaner chart view
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
💡 HOW TO USE
Step 1: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION
• Only trade LARGE TRIANGLE signals
• Ignore small circles/crosses alone
Step 2: CHECK TIMEFRAME
• Best on: 15min, 1H, 4H, Daily
• Avoid: 1min, 5min (too noisy)
Step 3: CONFIRM CONTEXT
• Check overall market trend
• Identify key support/resistance
• Look for confluence with price action
Step 4: ENTRY & RISK MANAGEMENT
• Enter on signal candle close or pullback
• Stop loss below/above the liquidity grab wick
• Target: Previous swing high/low or key levels
• Risk/Reward: Minimum 1:2 ratio
Step 5: SET ALERTS
• Create alert for "BUY Signal"
• Create alert for "SELL Signal"
• Never miss opportunities
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
✅ BEST PRACTICES
DO:
✓ Use on multiple timeframes for confluence
✓ Combine with support/resistance zones
✓ Wait for both conditions (liq grab + divergence)
✓ Practice on demo account first
✓ Use proper position sizing
DON'T:
✗ Trade every small circle/cross
✗ Use on very low timeframes (<15min)
✗ Ignore overall market context
✗ Trade without stop loss
✗ Risk more than 1-2% per trade
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
• This is a CONFIRMATION tool, not a holy grail
• No indicator is 100% accurate
• Combine with your trading strategy
• Backtest on your preferred instruments
• Adjust parameters for your trading style
• Higher timeframes = more reliable signals
• Always use risk management
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🔔 ALERTS INCLUDED
Two alert conditions are built-in:
1. "BUY Signal" - Liquidity Grab + Bullish RSI Divergence
2. "SELL Signal" - Liquidity Grab + Bearish RSI Divergence
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📈 RECOMMENDED SETTINGS BY TIMEFRAME
5-15 Min Charts:
• Lookback: 10-15
• RSI Length: 14
• RSI Div Lookback: 3-5
1H-4H Charts:
• Lookback: 20-30
• RSI Length: 14
• RSI Div Lookback: 5-7
Daily Charts:
• Lookback: 30-50
• RSI Length: 14
• RSI Div Lookback: 7-10
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Good luck and trade safe! 🚀
Reverse RSI LevelsSimple reverse RSI calculation
As default RSI values 30-50-70 are calculated into price.
This can be used similar to a bollinger band, but has also multiple other uses.
70 RSI works as overbought/resistance level.
50 RSI works as both support and resistance depending on the trend.
30 RSI works as oversold/support level.
Keep in mind that RSI levels can go extreme, specially in Crypto.
I haven't made it possible to adjust the default levels, but I've added 4 more calculations where you can plot reverse RSI calculations of your desired RSI values.
If you're a RSI geek, you probably use RSI quite often to see how high/low the RSI might go before finding a new support or resistance level. Now you can just put the RSI level into on of the 4 slots in the settings and see where that support/resistance level might be on the chart.
Simple BOS ScannerThis is a Break of Structure Scanner
It checks whenever there is a break of structure and can be used on the Screener screen
THAIT Moving Averages Tight within # ATR EMA SMA convergence
THAIT(tight) indicator is a powerful tool for identifying moving average convergence in price action. This indicator plots four user-defined moving averages (EMA or SMA). It highlights moments when the MAs converge within a user specified number of ATRs, adjusted by the 14-period ATR, signaling potential trend shifts or consolidation.
A convergence is flagged when MA1 is the maximum, the spread between MAs is tight, and the price is above MA1, excluding cases where the longest MA (MA4) is the highest. The indicator alerts and visually marks convergence zones with a shaded green background, making it ideal for traders seeking precise entry or exit points.
Volume + MA5 & MA10This Volume + MA5 & MA10 (Technical Volume Trend Analysis)
The Volume + MA5 & MA10 indicator provides a precise view of market participation and volume momentum by combining raw volume data with two moving averages (MA5 and MA10). It’s designed for traders who rely on volume-based confirmation to validate price movements, breakouts, and trend reversals.
🔍 Overview
This indicator displays volume bars alongside two smooth volume averages — MA5 (short-term) and MA10 (medium-term) — making it easier to detect shifts in market activity.
When the short-term average crosses above or below the long-term average, it signals a potential change in trading intensity or market sentiment.
⚙️ Key Features
Dual Volume Moving Averages (MA5 & MA10) for short- and medium-term analysis.
Dynamic Bar Coloring based on whether current volume exceeds MA5 or MA10.
Crossover Detection with visual markers for MA5/MA10 intersections.
Alert Conditions to notify you of significant volume trend shifts.
Fully customizable appearance and smoothing options.
📊 How to Interpret
MA5 > MA10 → Increasing short-term volume activity (strengthening momentum).
MA5 < MA10 → Decreasing short-term volume (weakening participation).
Rising volume with price → Confirms trend strength.
Falling volume with rising/falling price → Suggests potential reversal or reduced conviction.
💡 Applications
Confirm breakouts and trend continuations.
Identify momentum divergences between price and volume.
Filter out low-volume or weak-trend setups.
Combine with RSI, MACD, or moving averages for enhanced signal validation.
✅ Advantages
Simple yet powerful structure for clean visual analysis.
Works across all timeframes and markets (crypto, stocks, forex, indices).
No repainting — reliable for both live and historical backtesting.
Use Volume + MA5 & MA10 to strengthen your technical analysis and gain a deeper understanding of how market participation drives price trends.
Range Opening (ADX)▶ OVERVIEW
Range Opening (ADX) dynamically detects market opening ranges triggered by ADX (Average Directional Index) momentum shifts. Upon a user-defined ADX crossover or crossunder event, it builds a volume-based range box that tracks high and low prices over a fixed bar length and visualizes order flow pressure with delta volume and breakout buffer zones.
▶ RANGE TRIGGER VIA ADX CROSSOVER
The range begins when ADX crosses a custom threshold, indicating a shift in trend strength:
Users choose between ADX crossover or crossunder as the trigger.
Once triggered, the indicator starts collecting price and volume data for the specified “Range Opening Length.”
The ADX plot on the subchart is colored dynamically using a green-to-magenta gradient based on its strength.
A small label marks the ADX crossover/crossunder event visually.
▶ RANGE DEVELOPMENT BOX
While the range is forming:
Price highs and lows over the defined period are collected and stored.
A temporary gray box is drawn between the maximum high and minimum low, showing the developing range.
At each bar, delta volume is updated:
Positive if close > open
Negative if close < open
A total delta volume value is shown inside the developing box for real-time monitoring.
▶ RANGE COMPLETION & BREAKOUT LINES
Once the range completes (after the defined bar count):
The gray box is replaced with a finalized, color-coded range box.
Color Logic:
Green box if delta volume is positive (bullish bias)
Magenta box if delta is negative (bearish bias)
Two solid horizontal lines are drawn:
Top line from the range high
Bottom line from the range low
Two dashed lines are added above and below the range using ATR-based buffers, acting as buffer zones.
These lines extend until a new ADX trigger occurs, helping track future price interaction with the range.
▶ INFO PANEL & STATUS MONITORING
A compact data table appears in the top-right corner, offering quick insight:
ADX: Current value, color-coded to strength.
Threshold: User-defined trigger level.
Range Status:
Shows a green diamond when range is still forming.
Shows a magenta diamond after the range has completed.
Tooltip updates to “Developing” or “Formatted” based on stage.
▶ USAGE
Traders can use Range Opening (ADX) to:
Identify periods of strength expansion and price consolidation using ADX signals.
Track breakout potential and liquidity zones formed during opening-type setups.
Monitor delta volume to gauge buying/selling bias inside short-term ranges.
Use ATR buffer zones for breakout confirmation or fade setups.
Visually mark where the most recent structured range was defined.
▶ CONCLUSION
Range Opening (ADX) offers a systematic method to detect and monitor market ranges triggered by volatility surges. With real-time delta volume insight, persistent breakout levels, and ADX-driven logic, it serves as a versatile tool for both breakout traders and range strategists looking to capitalize on momentum-based setups.
Better DEMAThe Better DEMA is a new tool designed to recreate the classical moving average DEMA, into a smoother, more reliable tool. Combining many methodologies, this script offers users a unique insight into market behavior.
How does it work?
First, to get a smoother signal, we need to calculate the Gaussian filter. A Gaussian filter is a smoothing filter that reduces noise and detail by averaging data with weights following a Gaussian (bell-shaped) curve.
Now that we have the source, we will calculate the following:
n2 = n/2 (half of the user defined length)
a = 2/(1+n)
ns
Now that we have that out of the way, it is time to get into the core.
Now we calculate 2 EMAs:
slow EMA => EMA over n
fast EMA => EMA over n2 period
Rather then now doing this:
DEMA = fast EMA * 2 - slow EMA
I found this to be better:
DEMA = slow EMA * (1-a) + fast EMA * a
As a last touch I took a little something from the HMA, and used a EMA with period of √n to smooth the entire the thing.
The Trend condition at base is the following (but feel free to FAFO with it):
Long = dema > dema yesterday and dema < src
Short = dema < dema yesterday and dema > src
Methodology
While the DEMA is an amazing tool used in many great indicators, it can be far too noisy.
This made me test out many filters, out of which the Gaussian performed best.
Then I tried out the non subtractive approach and that worked too, as it made it smoother.
Compacting on all I learned and smoothing it bit by bit, I think I can say this is worth looking into :).
Use cases:
Following Trends => classic, effective :)
Smoothing sources for other indicators => if done well enough, could be useful :)
Easy trend visualization => Added extra options for that.
Strategy development => Yes
Another good thing is it does not a high lookback period, so it should be better and less overfit.
That is all for today Gs,
Have fun and enjoy!
Renko ATR Trend + SMA Indicator by YCGH Capital🧭 Overview
The Renko ATR Trend + SMA Indicator is a trend-following tool designed for chart trading.
It combines Renko-style price movement logic (based on ATR) with a Simple Moving Average (SMA) filter to identify sustained bullish or bearish phases on any timeframe.
It plots a color-coded trend line directly on the price chart — green for bullish trends, red for bearish — and maintains a single active state (no repeated buy/sell signals) until the opposite condition appears.
⚙️ How It Works
1️⃣ Renko ATR Engine
Instead of using fixed box sizes like classic Renko charts, this indicator builds synthetic Renko movement based on ATR (Average True Range) of a chosen timeframe.
It pulls OHLC data from your selected Renko Source Timeframe (for example, 60-minute candles).
It calculates an ATR brick size — representing the minimum price move needed for a new Renko brick.
When price moves by at least one ATR in the opposite direction, it flips the trend.
This filters out small fluctuations and captures the underlying directional bias.
2️⃣ SMA Filter
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) acts as a trend confirmation filter.
Only when Renko direction aligns with the price relative to the SMA, a trend signal activates.
BUY → Renko uptrend + price above SMA
SELL → Renko downtrend + price below SMA
3️⃣ Stateful Signal Logic
Unlike typical indicators that spam multiple buy/sell shapes:
This version holds one persistent signal (Buy or Sell)
The state continues until an opposite signal is confirmed
No “continuation” arrows — clean and minimal trend visualization
🎨 Visuals
Element Meaning
🟩 Green Renko Line Active Bullish Trend
🟥 Red Renko Line Active Bearish Trend
⚪ Gray Line Neutral / Waiting phase
🟡 Yellow Line SMA (trend filter)
📍 Label (Buy Active / Sell Active) Displays the current market bias
🔧 Inputs
Input Description
Renko Source Timeframe The timeframe from which Renko data is calculated (e.g., 60 = 1h candles).
ATR Period Determines brick size sensitivity (lower = more responsive, higher = smoother).
SMA Length Moving Average length used as a directional filter.
💡 How Traders Use It
Trend Confirmation:
Use green/red Renko line to stay aligned with the dominant market move.
Entry Timing:
Enter trades when a new Renko direction is confirmed along with SMA alignment.
Exit or Reverse:
Exit long when a red line (Sell Active) appears, and vice versa.
Combine with Price Action:
Add support/resistance or volume analysis for confirmation.
Bollinger Band Width Oscillator %🧠 Bollinger Band Width Oscillator %
The Bollinger Band Width Oscillator % is a volatility-focused tool that measures the relative width of Bollinger Bands and transforms it into an oscillator format. It helps traders visualize volatility expansions and contractions directly in an indicator pane — a powerful way to anticipate breakout or consolidation phases.
🔍 How It Works
Band Width %: Calculates the percentage distance between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands relative to the basis (SMA).
Smoothed Output: The raw bandwidth is smoothed using a moving average for cleaner, more stable signals.
Dynamic Volatility Zones: The script automatically computes average, high, and low volatility thresholds — each dynamically adapting to market conditions.
User-Adjustable Multipliers: Control how sensitive your high/low zones are with the High Zone Multiplier and Low Zone Multiplier inputs.
⚙️ Key Features
📊 Oscillator Format – Easy-to-read visualization of volatility compression and expansion.
🔥 High/Low Volatility Detection – Automatic labeling and color-coded alerts for shifts in volatility.
🧩 Dynamic Thresholds – Zones adjust automatically with market activity for adaptive sensitivity.
🧠 Hysteresis Logic – Prevents rapid signal flipping, improving clarity and reliability.
🎨 Custom Visuals – Adjustable smoothing and background highlights for quick interpretation.
📈 Trading Applications
Identify Breakouts: Rising bandwidth often precedes price breakouts.
Spot Consolidations: Low bandwidth indicates tightening volatility and potential range trades.
Volatility Regime Analysis: Understand market rhythm and adapt strategies accordingly.
⚡ Inputs
Parameter Description
Band Length Period for Bollinger Band calculation
Band Multiplier Standard deviation multiplier for the bands
Source Price source (default: close)
Smoothing Period for smoothing the oscillator line
High Zone Multiplier Adjusts the high-volatility threshold
Low Zone Multiplier Adjusts the low-volatility threshold
Highlight Volatility Zones Optional background color overlay
🧊 Usage Tip
Combine this indicator with momentum tools or price action analysis to confirm trade setups. Watch for transitions from low to high volatility zones — these often signal the beginning of major market moves.
Bullish & Bearish Reversal Pattern with Sequential Bars20 Bollinger Bands and custom Stochasti_MTM Setup
Both long and short reversal signals.
PG ATM Strike Line with Call & Put PremiumsPine Script: ATM Strike Line with Call & Put Premiums (Simplified)This Pine Script for TradingView displays the At-The-Money (ATM) strike price, futures price, call/put premiums (time value), and two ratios—Premium Ratio (PR) and Volume Ratio (VR)—for a user-selected underlying asset (e.g., NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, or stocks). It helps traders gauge near-term market direction using options data.How the Script WorksInputs:Expiry: Select year (e.g., '25), month (01–12), day (01–31) for option expiry (e.g., '251028').
Timeframe: Choose data timeframe (e.g., Daily, 15-min).
Symbol: Auto-detects chart symbol or select from Indian indices/stocks.
Strike: Auto-ATM (based on futures) or manual strike input.
Interval: Auto (e.g., 100 for NIFTY) or custom strike interval.
Colors: Customizable for ATM line, labels (Futures Price, CPR, PPR, VR, PR).
Calculations:Futures Price (FP): Fetches front-month futures price (e.g., NSE:NIFTY1!).
ATM Strike: Rounds futures price to nearest strike interval.
Option Data: Retrieves Last Traded Price (LTP) and volume for ATM call/put options (e.g., NSE:NIFTY251028C24200).
Call Premium (CPR): Call LTP minus intrinsic value (max(0, FP - Strike)).
Put Premium (PPR): Put LTP minus intrinsic value (max(0, Strike - FP)).
Premium Ratio (PR): PPR / CPR.
Volume Ratio (VR): Put Volume / Call Volume.
Visuals:Draws ATM strike line on chart.
Displays labels: FP (futures price), CPR (call premium), PPR (put premium), VR, PR.
VR/PR labels: Red (≥ 1.25, bearish), Green (≤ 0.75, bullish), Gray (0.75–1.25, neutral).
Updates on last confirmed bar to avoid redraws.
Using PR and VR for Market DirectionPremium Ratio (PR):PR ≥ 1.25 (Red): High put premiums suggest bearish sentiment (expect price drop).
PR ≤ 0.75 (Green): High call premiums suggest bullish sentiment (expect price rise).
0.75 < PR < 1.25 (Gray): Neutral, no clear direction.
Use: High PR favors bearish trades (e.g., buy puts); low PR favors bullish trades (e.g., buy calls).
Volume Ratio (VR):VR ≥ 1.25 (Red): High put volume indicates bearish activity.
VR ≤ 0.75 (Green): High call volume indicates bullish activity.
0.75 < VR < 1.25 (Gray): Neutral trading activity.
Use: High VR suggests bearish moves; low VR suggests bullish moves.
Combined Signals:High PR & VR: Strong bearish signal; consider put buying or call selling.
Low PR & VR: Strong bullish signal; consider call buying or put selling.
Mixed/Neutral: Use price action or support/resistance for confirmation.
Tips:Combine with technical analysis (e.g., trends, levels).
Match timeframe to trading horizon (e.g., 15-min for intraday).
Monitor FP for context; check volatility or news for accuracy.
ExampleNIFTY: FP = 24,237.50, ATM = 24,200, CPR = 120.25, PPR = 180.50, PR = 1.50 (Red), VR = 1.30 (Red).
Insight: High PR/VR suggests bearish bias; consider bearish trades if price nears resistance.
Action: Buy puts or exit longs, confirm with price action.
Conclusion: This script provides a concise tool for options traders, showing ATM strike, premiums, and PR/VR ratios. High PR/VR (≥ 1.25) signals bearish sentiment, low PR/VR (≤ 0.75) signals bullish sentiment, and neutral (0.75–1.25) suggests indecision. Combine with technical analysis for robust trading decisions in the Indian options market.
MCDX - Smart Money FlowThis version will compile cleanly in TradingView and replicate the stacked red/yellow/green MCDX-style panel from your screenshot.
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
OBV (Delta or regular)This is a quite simple script to apply some choices to OBV.
You can choose to use regular OBV values or you can choose to use delta OBV values.
Delta OBV values calculates the delta between selling volume and buying volume per bar to find discrepancies.
You can make the OBV a smoothed line or just keep the normal rigid line. Rigid line is default.
A secondary smoothed OBV line is added automatically with color change if the OBV is above or below the smoothed line.
You can set your desired MA from SMA, EMA, VWMA and WMA, The same will be applied to both lines if chosen to smooth them both.
Both lines are editable from the styles tab (visibility, color and line type)
If you for some reason don't want color change on the secondary line, chose the same color for both color 1 and 2.
Simple delta OBV example:
If a red bar has a long lower wick, OBV will calculate the entire bar towards bearish volume, while the delta will check if there's more buying or selling happening in total. Some times you'll be able to catch divergences in the volume which implies a reversal might be in the making.
For instance more selling on a green candle making the OBV drop instead of increasing or vise versa.
Hopefully someone finds is useful.
Inside Bar + Harami ComboThis indicator visually highlights Inside Bars, Outside Bars, and Harami candlestick patterns directly on your chart using clean color-coded candles — no labels, no shapes, just visual clarity.
It helps traders quickly identify potential reversal and continuation setups by coloring candles according to the detected pattern type.
🔍 Patterns Detected
🟨 Inside Bar — Current candle’s range is completely inside the previous candle’s range.
Often signals price contraction before a breakout.
💗 Outside Bar — Current candle’s high and low exceed the previous candle’s range.
Indicates volatility expansion and possible trend continuation.
🟩 Bullish Harami — A small bullish candle within the body of a prior bearish candle.
Suggests potential reversal to the upside.
🟥 Bearish Harami — A small bearish candle within the body of a prior bullish candle.
Suggests potential reversal to the downside.
⚙️ Features
Customizable colors for each pattern type.
Simple overlay visualization — no shapes, no labels, just colored candles.
Harami colors automatically override Inside/Outside colors when both occur on the same bar.
Lightweight logic for smooth performance on any timeframe or symbol.
💡 How to Use
Apply the indicator to your chart.
Configure colors in the settings panel if desired.
Watch for highlighted candles:
Inside Bars often precede breakouts.
Harami patterns can mark reversal zones.
Combine with trend tools (like moving averages) to confirm setups.
⚠️ Note
This indicator is for visual pattern detection and educational use only.
Always combine candlestick signals with broader technical or market context before trading decisions.
Yield Curve RegimesCurrently we are seeing equities and all other risk assets rallying to new all time high. But when will this stop?
There are multiple risks/signals i am monitoring to stay at the right side of the macro trade. Macro is everything: “When you get the Big-Picture wrong you wont live long.”
So lets go through a major risk that could be the catalyst for the next deeper correction
Capital needs to begin to move BACK across the risk curve as the yield curve steepens. We don't know if the source of the the crash will be from bear steepening or bull steepening because its unclear if long end rates blowing out will be the source of the crash.
If the Fed continues to make the policy error of being overly accommodative at this high level of nominal GDP + Inflation risk, the long end of the curve will price this.
Simple: If the Fed is to lose the long end can move up to price the inflation risk, which could ultimately pull risk assets down.
We have not seen this yet because the last inflation prints came in flat, but I expect these to come in higher over the next 6 months.
This means watching long end rates and their potential drag on equities will be critical. We are not seeing this yet as the Russell is sitting at all time highs and capital continues to move into low quality factors.
Look where the long end is moving + the attribution analysis for the move.
→ Down growth risk
→ Up Inflation risk
+ look what the 2s10s & the 10s30 are pricing and how these changes in the curve connect to the current yield curve regimes.
You can get the Trading view Skript 100% free here
Fibonacci levels MTF 2WEEK KKKKA Fibonacci arc trading strategy uses circular arcs drawn at Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) to identify potential support and resistance zones, often intersecting with a trend line. This strategy helps traders anticipate price reversals or pullbacks, and it should be used in conjunction with other indicators
HTF Session Boxes H4 > H2 > H1HTF Session Boxes H4 > H2 > H1
Visualize higher timeframe candle structures on lower timeframe charts with nested, customizable boxes.
Overview
HTF Session Boxes plots 4-hour, 2-hour, and 1-hour candle ranges as nested boxes directly on your lower timeframe charts (15M and below). This provides instant visual context of higher timeframe structure without switching between different chart timeframes.
Key Features
- Three Timeframe Levels: Simultaneously displays 4H, 2H, and 1H candle boxes
- Nested Design: Boxes are layered inside each other for clear hierarchical structure
- Real-Time Updates: Boxes dynamically adjust as higher timeframe candles develop
Fully Customizable:
-Individual colors and transparency for each timeframe
-Custom border colors, widths, and styles (solid, dashed, dotted)
-Toggle each timeframe on/off independently
Best Use Cases
-Scalping & Day Trading: Maintain awareness of higher timeframe structure while trading lower
timeframes
-Session Analysis: Clearly see 4H session boundaries and internal 2H/1H divisions
-Support/Resistance: Identify key levels where higher timeframe candles open, close, or create
highs/lows
-Multi-Timeframe Confluence: Spot when multiple timeframes align at key price levels
Auto Session Fib/Open LevelsThis indicator automatically plots fib levels and key opening levels so you don't have to (:
Default levels are set to Longhorn Trades (Peter Kennedy) fib settings and two key openings of my liking.
EXTPO TRENDIndicator designed for traders who prefer quick scalping or day trading.
Applicable to timeframes below M15.
Currently, I’m using it on BTC M1.
Note:
When the status is Buy, only buy signals will appear.
When the status is Sell, only sell signals will appear.
When the status is Off, no signals will appear because one of the entry conditions is not met.
