Conditional Volatility Explosion/ContractionThis indicator identifies zones of potential volatility expansion by analyzing the contraction and expansion of volatility bands, which are conditioned by the relationship of the price to moving averages
Volatility Squeeze: When the bands contract, it indicates a potential buildup in market tension, often preceding a significant price movement.
Volatility Expansion: When the bands expand, it signals the release of built-up tension, often resulting in increased volatility.
Trend Confirmation: The bands are active only when the price aligns with the moving average condition, helping to filter out less relevant signals during non-trending markets.
Upper Band: Displays as a red band when the volatility condition is met.
Represents the upper boundary of potential price action during high volatility.
Lower Band: Displays as a green band when the volatility condition is met.
Represents the lower boundary of potential price action during high volatility.
Fill Areas: The areas between the EMA and the bands are filled with transparent colors:
Red for the upper fill.
Green for the lower fill.
These highlights help visualize zones of potential volatility explosion.
Volatilitycontraction
Volatility with Power VariationVolatility Analysis using Power Variation
The "Volatility with Power Variation" indicator is designed to measure market volatility. It focuses on providing traders with a clear understanding of how much the market is moving and how this movement changes over time.. This indicator helps in identifying potential periods of market expansion or contraction, based on volatility.
What the indicator does:
This indicator analyzes volatility which refers to the degree of variation in the returns of a financial instrument over time. It's an important measure to understand how much the price and returns of a asset fluctuates. High volatility means large price swings, meanwhile low volatility indicates smaller and consolidating movements. Realized (Historical) Volatility refers to volatility based on past price data.
Power Variation
Power Variation is an extension of the traditional methods used to calculate realized volatility. Instead of simply summing up squared returns (as done in calculating variance), Power Variation raises the magnitude of returns to a power p . This allows the indicator to capture different types of market behavior depending on the chosen value of p .
When P = 2, the Power variation behaves like a traditional variance measure. Lower values of p (e.g., p=1) make the indicator more sensitive to smaller price changes, meanwhile higher values make it more responsive to large jumps, but smaller price moves wont affect the measure that much or won't most likely.
Bipower Variation
Bipower variation is another method used to analyze the changes in price. It specifically isolates the continuous part of price movements from the jumps, which can help by understanding whether volatility is coming from regular market activity or from sharp, sudden moves.
How to Use the Indicator.
Understand Realized and Historical Volatility. Volatility after periods of low volatility you can eventually expect a expansion or an increase in volatility. Conversely, after periods of high volatility, the market often contracts and volatility decreases. If the variation plot is really low and you start seeing it increasing, shown by the standard deviation channels and moving average and you see it trending and increasing then that means you can expect for volatility to increase which means more price moves and expansions. Also if the scaling seems messed up, then use the logarithmic chart scale.
Coiled Moving AveragesThis indicator detects when 3 moving averages converge and become coiled. This indicates volatility contraction which often leads to volatility expansion, i.e. large price movements.
Moving averages are considered coiled when the percent difference from each moving average to the others is less than the Coil Tolerance % input value.
This indicator is unique in that it detects when moving averages converge within a specified percent range. This is in contrast to other indicators that only detect moving average crossovers, or the distance between price and a moving average.
This indicator includes options such as:
- % difference between the MAs to be considered coiled
- type and length of MAs
- background color to indicate when the MAs are coiled
- arrows to indicate if price is above or below the MAs when they become coiled
While coiling predicts an increased probability for volatility expansion, it does not necessarily predict the direction of expansion. However, the arrows which indicate whether price is above or below the moving average coil may increase the odds of a move in that direction. Bullish alignment of the moving averages (faster MAs above the slower MAs) may also increase the odds of a bullish break, while bearish alignment may increase the odds of a bearish break.
Note that mean reversion back to the MA coil is common after initial volatility expansion. This can present an entry opportunity for traders, as mean reversion may be followed by continuation in the direction of the initial break.
Experiment with different settings and timeframes to see how coiled MAs can help predict the onset of volatility.
Conditional Volatility PercentileSimple Description: This indicator can basically help you find when a big move might happen ( This indicator can't determine the direction but when a big move could happen. ) Basically, a low-extreme value like 0 means that it only has room for upside, so volatility can only expand from that point on, and the fact that volatility mean reverts supports this.
Conditional Volatility Percentile Indicator
This indicator is a tool designed to view current market volatility relative to historical levels. It uses a statistical approach to assess the percentile rank of the calculated conditional volatility.
The Volatility Calculation
This indicator calculates conditional variance with user-defined parameters, which are Omega, Alpha, Beta, and Sigma, and then takes the square root of the variance to calculate the standard deviation. The script then calculates the percentile rank of the conditional variance over a specified lookback.
What this indicator tells you:
Volatility Assessment: Higher percentile values indicate heightened conditional volatility, suggesting increased market activity or potential stress. Meanwhile, lower percentiles suggest relatively lower conditional volatility.
Extreme Values: Volatility is a mean-reverting process. If the volatility percentile value is at a low value for an extended period of time, you can eventually bet on the volatility percentile value increasing with high confidence.
In financial markets, volatility itself exhibits mean-reverting properties. This means that periods of high volatility are likely to be followed by periods of lower volatility, and vice versa.
1. High Volatility Periods: High volatility levels may be followed by a subsequent decrease in volatility as the market returns to a more typical state.
2. Low Volatility Periods: Periods of low volatility may be followed by an uptick in volatility as the market experiences new information or changes in sentiment.
Volatility Trend (Zeiierman)█ Overview
The Volatility Trend (Zeiierman) is an indicator designed to help traders identify and analyze market trends based on price volatility. By calculating a dynamic trend line and volatility-adjusted bands, the indicator provides visual cues to understand the current market direction, potential reversal points and volatility.
█ How It Works
The indicator uses a weighted moving average of historical prices to create a responsive trend line that is adjusted for volatility using standard deviation. The indicator sets upper and lower bands at intervals of two standard deviations, acting as markers for potential overbought or oversold conditions. Additionally, by comparing current and previous trend line values, the indicator identifies the trend direction, providing crucial insights for traders.
█ How to Use
Trend Identification
Use the trend line to identify the overall market direction. An upward-sloping line indicates an uptrend, while a downward-sloping line indicates a downtrend.
Volatility Assessment
Use the distance between the upper and lower bands to gauge market volatility. Wider bands indicate higher volatility, while narrower bands indicate lower volatility.
Overbought/Oversold
If the price reaches or exceeds the upper or lower bands, it may be in an overbought or oversold condition, respectively.
█ Settings
Trend Control: Adjusts the sensitivity and smoothness of the trend line. Lower values make the trend more responsive, while higher values make it smoother.
Trend Dynamic: Controls how quickly the trend adjusts to price changes. Higher values result in a slower adjustment.
Volatility: Consists of two parts - the scaling factor for volatility and the sensitivity for volatility adjustment. Adjusting these settings alters the distance between the trend lines and the price, as well as how sensitive the bands are to changes in volatility.
Squeeze Control: Influences the degree to which market squeeze is considered in the calculation, with higher values increasing sensitivity.
Enable Scalping Trend: A toggle that, when activated, makes the indicator focus on short-term trends, which is particularly useful for scalping strategies.
█ Related scripts with the same calculation philosophy
TrendCylinder
TrendSphere
Predictive Trend and Structure
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Expected Move BandsExpected Moves
The Expected Move of a security shows the amount that a stock is expected to rise or fall from its current market price based on its level of volatility or implied volatility. The expected move of a stock is usually measured with standard deviations.
An Expected Move Range of 1 SD shows that price will be near the 1 SD range 68% of the time given enough samples.
Expected Move Bands
This indicator gets the Expected Move for 1-4 Standard Deviation Ranges using Historical Volatility. Then it displays it on price as bands.
The Expected Move indicator also allows you to see MTF Expected Moves if you want to.
This indicator calculates the expected price movements by analyzing the historical volatility of an asset. Volatility is the measure of fluctuation.
This script uses log returns for the historical volatility calculation which can be modelled as a normal distribution most of the time meaning it is symmetrical and stationary unlike other scripts that use bands to find "reversals". They are fundamentally incorrect.
What these ranges tell you is basically the odds of the price movement being between these levels.
If you take enough samples, 95.5% of the them will be near the 2nd Standard Deviation. And so on. (The 3rd Standard deviation is 99.7%)
For higher timeframes you might need a smaller sample size.
Features
MTF Option
Parameter customization
Volume Wizard - Omkar
Volume bars on up days will be in 'silver' colour.
Volume bars on down days will be in 'grey' colour.
The volume bar will ‘be red’ in colour if the latest close is below the previous close and the volume is more than the average volume.
A green circle will be plotted if the current candle volume is the least in the last 20 days.
The volume bar will be ‘blue’ in colour if the current candle volume is more than the highest volume of the down day in the last 5 days (5-day Pocket Pivot).
The volume bar will be ‘green’ in colour if the current candle volume is more than the highest volume of the down day in the last 10 days (10-day Pocket Pivot).
The volume bar will be ‘lime’ in colour if the current candle volume is more than the highest volume of the down day in the last 20 days (20-day Pocket Pivot).
The volume bar will be ‘teal’ in colour if the current candle volume is highest in the last 3 months.
The volume bar will be ‘aqua’ in colour if the current candle volume is highest in the last 1 year.
If the current volume is the lowest in the last 22 days, a tiny yellow circle will be plotted on the volume average line on daily and weekly timeframe only.
If the current volume is more than three times the average volume and the close is in the top half of the candle, a diamond will be plotted at the top of the volume bar on a daily and weekly timeframe only.
Average volume days and Pivot lookback period can be modified.
The table shows the average turnover, the number of pocket pivots in the last ‘n’ days and the up-down ratio.
The table position can be changed.
Volume Wizard - Omkar indicator provides me with insights, allowing me to make informed trading decisions, and identify potential trends.
It's my go-to companion for navigating the financial markets with confidence.
Add it to your favourites and start using it right away.
Happy trading!
MAD Volatility PercentileMean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is a statistical measure that tells you how spread out or variable a set of data points is. It calculates the average distance of each data point from the mean (average) of the data set. MAD helps you understand how much individual values differ from the average value. It's a way to measure the overall "average distance" of the data points from the center point.
Indicator Overview:
This indicator measures market volatility using Mean Absolute Deviation of returns. The MAD Volatility Percentile Indicator calculates and represents market volatility as a percentile. The lower the percentile, the lower the volatility, and the higher the percentile value is, the higher the volatility is.
Understanding Volatility:
Lower percentiles signify a lower volatility market environment, reflecting reduced volatility, while higher percentiles indicate increased volatility and significant price movements. The indicator also comes with an SMA to see when the burst of higher volatility occur. You can also change the sample length on the indicators option. You can consider a big move occurring when the percentile value is above the SMA.
Application
Generally when the Mean Absolute Deviation Volatility Percentile is low, then this means that the volatility is low and a expansion could happen soon, which means a big move will occur soon. This indicator can also protect you from entering a trade that will not have any significant moves for a while.
This indicator is not a directional indicator but it can be applied with directional indicators, and is extremely versatile. For example you can use it with momentum indicators and if there is low volatility and bullish momentum then this can be a signal to potentially place a long position.
Features:
The percentile length sets the lookback of the percentile which calculates the percentile of the Mean Absolute Deviation of returns.
Sample length: Gets the volatility sample (returns)
SMA Length: The SMA of the percentile. Used to find when a move can be considered as an "expansion"
Alerts: You can also enable color alerts that flash when the volatility is at extremely low levels which can signify that a big move could happen soon.
This is an example of the alerts that the indicator comes with.
Daily Factor Indicator [CC]The Daily Factor Indicator was created by Andrea Unger (Stocks and Commodities Jun 2023 pgs 26-31), and this is a new volatility indicator that compares the body, which is the absolute difference between the previous open and previous close, and the range which is the difference between the previous high and previous low. The indicator is calculated by dividing the body and range to determine the volatility for the previous bar. This indicator will range between 0 and 1. Values closer to 1 mean very high volatility, and values closer to 0 mean very low volatility. I have introduced a simple moving average strategy to decide buy or sell signals and colors. Darker colors mean the indicator is above the threshold level, and lighter colors mean the indicator is below the threshold level. Colors are shades of green when the price is above the moving average and shades of red when the price is below the moving average. Feel free to try out your own threshold level and general buy and sell signals.
Let me know if there are any other indicators you would like me to publish!
Volatility patterns / quantifytools- Overview
Volatility patterns detect various forms of indecisive price action, on a larger scale as a compressed range and on a smaller scale as indecision candles. Indecisive and volatility suppressing price action can be thought of as a spring being pressed down. The more suppression, the more tension is built and eventually released as a spike or series of spikes in volatility. Each volatility pattern is assigned an influence period, during which average and peak relative volatility is recorded and stored to volatility metrics.
- Patterns
The following scenarios are qualified as indecision candles: inside candles, indecision engulfing candles and volatility shifts.
By default, each indecision candle is considered a valid pattern only when another indecision candle has taken place within 3 periods, e.g. prior inside candle + indecision engulfing candle = valid volatility pattern. This measurement is taken to filter noise by looking for multiple hints of pending volatility, rather than just one. Level of tolerated noise can be changed via input menu by using sensitivity setting, by default set to 2.
Sensitivity at 1: Any single indecision candle is considered a valid pattern
Sensitivity at 2: 2 indecision candles within 3 bars is considered a valid pattern
Sensitivity at 3: 2 indecision candles within 2 bars (consecutive) is considered a valid pattern
The following scenarios are qualified as range patterns: series of lower highs/higher lows and series of low volatility pivots.
A pivot is defined by highest/lowest point in price, by default within 2 periods back and 2 periods forward. When 4 pivots with qualities mentioned above are found, a box indicating compressed range will appear. Both required pivots and pivot definition can be adjusted via input menu.
- Influence time and metrics
By default, influence time for each volatility pattern is set to 6 candles, a period for which spike(s) in volatility is expected. For each influence period, average relative volatility (volatility relative to volatility SMA 20) and peak relative volatility is recorded and stored to volatility metrics. All metrics used in calculations are visible in "Data Window "tab. Average and peak volatility during influence period will vary depending on chart, timeframe and chosen settings. Tweaking the settings might result in an improvement and is worth experimenting with.
- Visuals
By default, indecision candles are visualized as yellow lines and range patterns as orange boxes. Influence time periods are respectively visualized as colored candle borders, applied as long as influence time period is active. All colors are fully customizable via input menu.
- Practical guide
Volatility patterns depict moments of equal strength from both bulls and bears. While this equilibrium is in place, price is stagnant and compresses until either side initiates volatility, releasing the built up tension. On top of hedging and playing the volatility using volatility based instruments, some other methods can be applied to take advantage of the somewhat tricky areas of indecision.
Example #1: Trading volatility
Volatility is not a bad thing from a trading perspective, but can actually be fertile ground for executing trade setups. Trading volatility influence periods from higher timeframes on lower timeframes gives greater resolution to work with and opportunities to take advantage of the wild swings created.
Example #2: Finding bias for patterns
Points of confluence where it anyway makes sense to favor one side over the other can be used for establishing bias for indecisive price action as well. At face value, it makes sense to expect bearish reactions at range highs and bullish reactions at range low, for which volatility patterns can provide a catalyst.
Example #3: Betting on initiation direction
Betting on direction of the first volatile move can easily go against you, but if risk/reward is able to compensate for the poor win rate, it's a valid idea to consider and explore.
Volatility Compression Ratio by M-CarloHello traders. I created this simple indicator to use as a FILTER.
He does not provide any operational signals but tells us if we are in a period of volatility compression or expansion and it can work on all market.
This filter works great for all strategies that work on breakouts
The concept is this: I will enter at breakout of a price level that I consider important, only if there is a volatility compression and not in the case of expansion of volatility.
Technically the calculation is very simple:
Step 1: I calculate the ATR at "x" periods, I set 7 by default because I get better results but you can change it as you like using the "atr length" field. You can also choose whether to calculate the ATR via RMA, SMA or EMA.
Step 2: I Calculate a simple average of the previous ATR over a longer period, longer period than set with the "length multiplier" parameter, which multiplies the "atr length" value by "x" times. Here I set the default 3 but you can change it as you like.
Step 3: I divide the ATR value calculated in step1 by its long-term average calculated in step2, obtaining a value that will oscillate above and below the value of 1
So:
if the indicator is above the value of 1 it means that volatility is expanding
If the indicator is below the value of 1 it means that we are in a period of volatility compression (and as we know volatility explodes sooner or later)
If you have any questions write to me and I hope this filter helps you! Have good Trading!
Confined Range Candle FinderThis indicator finds candlesticks which are confined within the range of a previous candlestick. This indicates volatility contraction which often leads to volatility expansion, i.e. large price movements.
While every confined range will contain at least 1 inside bar, this indicator differs from the Inside Bar Finder which only finds consecutive inside bars.
This indicator includes options such as:
- The minimum number of candlesticks confined within the range of a previous candlestick to trigger the indicator
- Labels to indicate the number of confined candles
- Signal lines to indicate the high and low of the containing candlestick
Try out this indicator with different options on different timeframes to see if confined ranges increase the probability of identifying the direction of price movements. Breaks or closes outside signal lines can be used to trigger trade signals.
Mini Coil With Real RangeA mini coil is a low risk setup that can be used within a longer term pattern. The coiling action represents a tightening of volatility and is most effective when price is no more than 10-15% above a prior base.
The mini coil was created by Matt Caruso, @CarusoInsights, a professional investor and top performer in the 2020 US Investing Championship, finishing with a 346% return.
Mini Coil Setup
▪ Given an initial bar, at a minimum, two bars follow that don't exceed the high or low of the initial bar.
▪ The entry is when there is a break above the high of the initial bar.
▪ A common stop is the low of the last bar before the breakout.
Unique Features
▪ Real Range
When the initial bar open is a gap up greater than the previous bar close, when using the real range, the start of the mini coil is the close of the bar prior to the gap up. See the examples below for more information.
▪ Thresholds
During the formation of a mini coil, price may deviate slightly above or below the high or low of the initial bar. It can be helpful to set a threshold which allows for small percentage moves, above or below, yet still consider the price to be within the high/low range of the initial bar.
▪ Breakout Price
To help track the potential breakout price, there is an option to show the high of the initial bar.
Mini Coil Examples
DDOG - Real Range
AAPL - Historical Mini Coils
AMD - Real Range and Threshold %
Variety-Filtered, Squeeze Moving Averages [Loxx]Variety-Filtered, Squeeze Moving Averages is a chop zone indicator that identifies when price is below a specific volatility threshold calculated as the difference between a fast and slow moving average and filtered using ATR- or Pips-based threshold. This indicator can be use as both an entry and exit indicator. It identifies both chop zones and breakouts/breakdowns
How to use
When the candles turn white and the threshold bands appear on the chart, this is indicative of low volatility
When price exits the threshold bands, price will usually explode up or down giving a long or short signal. This acts as a sort of squeeze momentum.
Included:
Bar coloring
Signals
Alerts, 4 types of alerts: Squeeze started, Squeeze ended, long, and short
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
35+ Loxx's Moving Averages
Inside Bar FinderInside bars occur when the range of a candlestick falls entirely within the previous candlestick's range. This indicates volatility contraction which often leads to volatility expansion, i.e. large price movements.
This indicator includes options such as:
- The number of consecutive inside bars required to trigger the indicator
- Signal lines to indicate the high and low of the outermost or innermost bars
Try out this indicator with different options on different timeframes to see if inside bars increase the probability of identifying the direction of price movements. Breaks or closes outside the inside or outside signal lines can be used to trigger trade signals.
Sigma Spikes [CC]Sigma Spikes were created by Adam Grimes and this is one of the best volatility indicators out there. This indicator not only gives you positive or negative volatility but with my version I can identify any sudden changes from the underlying trend. Buy when the line turns green and sell when it turns red.
Let me know if there were any other indicators you wanted to see me publish!
Ehlers AM Detector [CC]The AM Detector was created by John Ehlers (Stocks and Commodities May 2021 pg 14) and this is his first volatility indicator I believe. Since this is a more informational indicator rather than a buy or sell signal generator, I have included buy and sell signals for a simple moving average but feel free to use this in combo with any other system you use. Buy when the line turns green and sell when it turns red.
Let me know if there are any other indicators you would like to see me publish!
Specter Alpha-Omega Volatility Index™Meet the Alpha-Omega Volatility custom indicator by Specter
This premium volatility indicator uses a series of models to compare historical volatility, and by using a series of noise reduction techniques, it only gives you the very best signals. This indicator shows you aggressive reversals, which are often the most profitable.
The customization options already come with pre-sets, and it's as simple as one click. It comes with Aggressive, Moderate, Conservative and Ultra Conservative behaviors filters.
Also, it offers an interest zone indicator so you can start paying attention to the chart before it happens when trading extra volatile stocks timing is crucial and you want to be ready before the action begins.
The way you use it is pretty simple, you look for divergences. When you have a bullish movement, and you see high negative volatility appearing in the Alpha-Omega indicator, it means a strong reversal/spike is coming. The same goes for bearish reversals, just the opposite logic. You also get an extra layer of confirmation which is the Alpha/Omega characters; they only appear with the most robust volatility prediction. It's up to your trading strategy to decide how conservative you are and which signals you will follow.
It works on any market/security/asset/timeframe.
Ready to ride some spikes?
Volatility Decay & SqueezeThis has only been tested for crypto. The squeeze currently shown here should result in volatility upwards. This is an attempt to monitor volatility as a leading indicator and is currently under development.
