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Trade ideasMinds
Vista Gold Breakout confirmationThanks for viewing. I prefer to buy in when things a quiet. When no one is interested. Other investors get in at different points in the cycle - and for different reasons. Here is another one; I posted previously on March 14th, 2025 when the price was $0.75, Again in October 29th when selling pressure was easing. Some credit please. I have been correct on where the price is going and also the timing. No guarantee, of course, that I will be right in this post :D Clear breakout, whether you prefer to look at it as a breakout above resistance, triangle pattern breakout, or simply as trend resumption the result is the same; UPTREND. It is also not too late. BGZ is only trading at 10% of its Net Present Value (NPV5). An advanced developer like this should be trading in the 40-60% range. Breakout helped by their presentation at a conference yesterday. Even with 50% dilution I am expecting an additional 400% upside by around 2028-29 when mining is likely to commence. No clear signs of weakness in the uptrend. More above average volume likely on Monday. Am probably going to stop posting.
AMEX:VGZLong
by flyinkiwi10
$VGZ: The Alpha Goat is Staring at the Ceiling🐐 This chart is screaming "hidden gem." While everyone is chasing the giants, AMEX:VGZ is quietly flexing distinct relative strength against almost the entire market. It’s knocking on the door of a massive breakout, but the door is still locked. WHAT THE CHART SAYS The Vibe: Pure compression. We have a solid impulsive move up, followed by a "high and tight" consolidation. It’s coiled like a spring. The Ceiling (Resistance): That red line is the "No Fly Zone." Price keeps wicking up there and getting rejected. We need a clean break through that roof to start the party. The Floor (Support): Buyers are stepping in higher and higher. The lows are rising, which tells us the bulls are impatient. MULTI-FACTOR READ The technicals are flashing some interesting signals. Momentum is in a "wait and see" mode—not overheating, but definitely awake. Relative Strength is the real star here; this thing is green against nearly every major asset class. However, Sentiment is getting a little "frothy" (too much greed), so don't be shocked if we chop sideways to cool off the hype before the next leg up. 3 SCENARIOS A) The "Alpha Breakout" (Bullish) Trigger: We smash through the red ceiling with big energy. Vibe: Blue skies. No resistance left overhead. B) The "Chill & Grill" (Neutral) Trigger: We keep bouncing between the floor and the ceiling. Vibe: Boring, but healthy. Let the weak hands get bored and leave. C) The "Fakeout" (Bearish) Trigger: We lose the recent higher-low structure. Vibe: The breakout failed. Back to the drawing board. EDUCATIONAL EXECUTION BLUEPRINT Breakout Style: Don't guess. Wait for the candle to actually CLOSE above the ceiling. Wicks don't count. Dip Buyer: If it pulls back to the floor and holds, that's your low-risk entry , if it dosnt hold the trade is invald. ENGAGEMENT DRIVER Poll: Is this a "High Tight Flag" ready to fly, or a "Double Top" trap? share in the comments! EXAMPLES ON OTHER RELEVANT TICKERS: AMEX:GDX (Gold Miners): The big brother. If this starts running, AMEX:VGZ gets a tailwind. TVC:DXY (US Dollar): The villain. Gold hates a strong dollar. Watch for rejection. AMEX:GLD (Gold Spot): The King. Trading near highs and looking strong. CRYPTOCAP:BTC ? DISCLAIMER This is educational technical analysis, not financial advice.
AMEX:VGZLong
by Algoat_Alpha
Dragonfly doji indicating possible bullish reversalG'day thanks for viewing. My personal target for VGZ when it becomes an established steady-state 153,000 oz pa producer is USD13. This is at $4000 gold, a $150 higher AISC per ounce as in the Feasibility Study, and a quite pessimistic price to free-cash multiple. Less pessimistic scenarios could easily see prices above $30. The earliest production outlook probable would be early 2029 ramp-up. Even though that is some time away, I feel that I will be well-remunerated for my patience. Entry price is $0.74. The dragonfly doji is seen as a bullish signal. Basically, it shows that continued bearish pressure is losing strength, support may have been reached, and further price pressure to the downside is easily counter-acted by buying pressure. Prices were pushed down, but are easily pushed back up, and closed in positive territory. Whether you believe in Japanese Candlesticks, trading psychology, or whatever, gold is finding support and one must admit that the sell-off is possibly easing. In the end a few cents here and there won't matter so much as there is a good and increasing chance that this project is going to happen. I would put the chances currently as about 60% chance of progressing to production within 5 years. If I hadn't taken a position in March, I would look at it like this; Do you think it would be worthwhile investing X amount with a 60% chance of a 6 to 13 x return? "Yes" would be my answer. That is a very attractive risk-reward ratio. It may be easier for me to envisage as I have flown over the mine - not that this given me an 'edge.' It's more that I have seen the project, know that it is real and concrete (albeit unexecuted), and can talk to real locals who have various opinions on the project. I also see people selling gold nuggets collected in the Pine Creek area weekly on FB marketplace (not that VGZ's Mt Todd open-pit is "nuggety.") There are other gold miners opening up around Mt Todd under the current gold price environment. Luckily for you, Vista Gold is still drastically uncovered (I saw three recent posts from VGZ that had ZERO LIKES in a day, 4 likes in 1 day and 2 likes in 4 days after posting) - other much smaller miners have hugely greater social media coverage). They need to get some new Investor Relations / PR... but again... lucky for you they haven't yet. Otherwise it wouldn't be cheap still. They have signed at least 5 non-disclosure deals with potential partners. Average time from Feasibility Study to commencement of construction is 1.7 years. That puts us in Q1 2027 followed by a two year construction phase. My scenarios assume no dilution.
AMEX:VGZ
by flyinkiwi10
2
Long-term bullish on Vista GoldThanks for viewing. Vista Gold is a gold miner developer. They have one property. It is a gold mine in the Northern Territory of Australia with proven and probable reserves of around 7 million ounces. There is just under 7 million ounces indicated, which may be converted to reserves at some point in the future, if borne out by drilling programs. Drilling is ongoing and has expanded gold finds beyond what is in the current reserve. They are expecting to issue a revised gold reserve and revised feasibility plan that will allow them to extract 150 to 200k ounces pa vs 500k/pa in the previous one. The revision is because the lower production target will require less funding to get underway (USD400m vs USD1 billion), but it will also extend mine life. I don't like the grade of ~1g/ton of ore. But due to the accessibility, even a low grade like this is economical to extract. They set a cut-off of economical extraction at 0.35g/ton. If they reach 200k ounces of production within the next 5 years I would value this equity at 12 times its current price - even if gold prices do not rise over time. Price target $9.20 up from 0.75. If they subsequently expand production to 500k ounces pa my price target is $23 (30.4x). This is without the conversion of the 7m ounces into reserves or any new gold strikes. This mine was #3 on the largest undeveloped gold mines list I read yesterday. One in the top 3 is from Russia. Its relatively high risk. They may not secure funding. The jurisdiction is very friendly. They are just 2 hours drive south of a major city. Infrastructure in place. Approvals in place. With gold price where it is currently, and the extreme size of the gold reserve, I consider it a foregone conclusion that they, or someone else will realise the extraction of this gold. I just hope they don't get taken over with some crazy low offer like a 50% premium on current share price. No, I want to hold this equity and get my 12 to 30 x benefits. If I have to wait 10 years, then so be it. That will allow me to increase my position. Now that people have realised that the US is basically insolvent (I am not a US hater) and US treasuries are a guaranteed loss-maker (real inflation is around 8% and a 10 year note returns 4.5%pa for a -3.5%pa real return), more people will flock to gold and gold stocks trying to gain protection from inflation. The only way the US can get control is to allow inflation to reduce the future value of today's debt until it becomes manageable. That and cost reductions, but cost reductions now have come a little too late IMO. The cat is out of the bag. The blue box is my pessimistic view. If price drops that low, I am doubling my holding.
AMEX:VGZLong
by flyinkiwi10
4
$VGZ Break out and low hanging fruit for Gold Bull MarketGold Spec play. $VGZ Vista Gold. One of the very few quality junior gold investments that has a realistic shot of near term buyout or new mega mine build at any price above $1200 GLD. Brownfield, permits in place, would be third largest gold mine in Australia, 750 AISC, 10million oz resource, 400-500k yr production, less than 1 billion build cost, and can be in production within three years. Current NPV upgrade soon to be expected news increases NPV to about 1 billion, & that is at $1300 gold. Very attractive buyout for mid tier or large cap to grow or add 400-500K a year. Recent interview VGZ looking to sell or partner. 100m O/S = 10 share for NPV. buyout spec 5-10share. If 50% partner & becomes a producer @ $1300 gold, price target range of 6-8 per share. @ $1450 gold 10-12 share, @ $1550 gold 13-14 share, $1800 gold 17-18 a share, $2100 gold 21-22 a share. & on and up... With VGZ currently 1pps or 100million MC, vista is low hanging risk fruit for investors or a major looking to buy the best large scale, safe district, permits in hand, shovel ready, cheap AISC gold junior at the beginning of a gold bull market. AMEX:VGZ
AMEX:VGZLong
by STOCKtori
VGZ My idea I am expecting this stock to make a run upwards, likely after a consolidation at $0.76, or a correction to $0.73 If the stock corrected at $0.73, it may be pretty hard to make that upwards push. However, with the 9 day MA supporting a smooth correction/consolidation plus good bull volume moves, the possibility is undeniable. In addition, let's hope this stock continues to bounce off trending support on the wedge. If it does not, the secondary trending support is the next hopeful target that this stock hops and skips on top of. **Let's see what happens!**
AMEX:VGZLong
by mrmaximo74
VGZ - 144minI know I've posted ideas on some of the sub-$1 miners, warning that positions should be kept small until we get confirmation. So far, a good start to proving the correction is over in wave (2). The larger 1-2 will add confidence. Retraces may be small in a presumed wave (3), and I'm not sure about the timing as my analysis isn't a timing system. Just watching technical indicators and price pattern for clues. Straight stock plays on juniors like this are safer plays than 3x leverage ETFs in my opinion. Long from ~0.87
AMEX:VGZLong
by nick.holland78
4