How to Straddle an Ascending TriangleFor info on Ascending Triangle, check out my previous AMZN chart.
XLE consolidated 2 weeks prior to form an Ascending Triangle on the 4hr chart.
The 2 week period at the end of July XLE gained 20% .
This sets up a Great risk/reward around a sector with NG on the move.
Don’t count out the oil bull either.
While markets were bearish overall, XLE was on a 60% top before June.
Falling Energy gave way to lower inflation prints in June and July.
I can see XLE going to June high of 93 to form a cup and handle.
More on that in my next XLE idea.
XLE trade ideas
XLE Energy Sector approaching ATH. Options play with CushionWith energy prices continuing their rise due to global shortages and war, XLE has climbed over 50% YTD. The potential upside to all-time highs, along with the intact trend since March of 2020 are enticing. It might be harder to take on a position after a 100% YoY increase and not feel like its FOMO. So, I look for options to enter with a bullish outlook but protect from downside volatility. Using a custom options strategy we can build in a 23% cushion ($65.38) and still capture all the upside to the ceiling ($89.13).
Using this strategy, it’s possible to make up to 9% ( 15% annualized ).
Start to lose only if XLE falls by more than 22% to below $63.58 as of 03/31/2023 .
Option Order
Buy 1 $82 call
Sell 1 $87 call
Sell 1 $64 put
Exp 3/31/23
Required to invest: $6,362.98
Energy XLE idea (22/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range Further rise is expected in the XLE Energy Sector Index, targeting the third wave. Since prices are above the support point of 70.59, we expect a rise in the near term and also in the long term, and the main support point is at prices of 65.48
Energy XLE idea (17/08/2022)XLE ENERGY ETFS Look for evidence of wave termination ((2).
Therefore, the current correction of the energy sector index may continue a little before it resumes and rises again, as support point 70.59 supports the rise in the near term will in the Long Term. Therefore, if trading remains above the support point of 65.48, we may see more rise.
Bear Market - EvidenceThis descending triangle in the most "bullish" of sectors - energy - seems to prove that we are in a bear market. The descending triangle seems to trade with a bearish elliot wave pattern for descending triangles as evidenced here:
thepatternsite.com
Share your thoughts in the comments below.
Energy stocks & commodities basing for coming reversal?Using XLE to represent the sector, it appears to be forming a "W" pattern, which could morph into an IH&S reversal pattern, but it still needs a little more time. Green zone is general support, and probable good intermediate term buying opportunity, maybe lasting into the end of the year. Pink boxes are gaps I would expect to be filled before reversal manifests.
XLE: 2YR Daily Macro Data & Popular Indicators For ML AnalysisThis chart was created to accompany a blog post which explores leveraging machine learning (RNN: LSTM) using Tensorflow Keras and SHAP to determine which factors (indicators and correlations with Macro, such as oil futures prices, Fed Funds rate, consumer spending, etc) are found by the model to be the most predictive in nature.
Findings will be posted in the comments.
XLE at 100ema and key level on VPVR$77.50 has a lot of volume and can act as a resistance perfectly in line with the 100ema. Daily candle close above this and it should move into the $80 price range and could sit there for a bit. We would see one more push to the top before oil calms and this forms a lower high around $90 or a double top.
Entered on the drop at $70
TP target 1 now at $77
TP target 2 at $81
TP target 3 at $90
$XLE - end of year target $55Energy prices will fall for all the wrong reasons. US economy will slow; we will see recession soon. As output slows and quantitative tightening increases; prices will fall. Should fall to support levels around $55 by end of the year.
Trigger: 11 day smma crossing the 50 day smma.
$XLE components include $XOM, $CVX, $COP, $MPC
$XLE starts to look cheap around $70.50$XLE broke below weekly support, which happens to be 0.768 Fibonacci support level as well.
I'd want to get long at $70.50 as it'll be the 0.618 level of Fibonacci support and also other important technical factors coincide in that zone. Including volume profile value area high at the same level.
Where I would buy more puts on XLEHello friends. We posted earlier about why the energy sector was probably the Greatest Short Of All time. Did anyone join us for shorting? We made a *lot* of money. But now it might be time for a brief bullback, before going much lower. Let's see if we can reload some more puts after that happens.
Thanks for playing, and to the guy who kept taking a crap all over me for me idea, maybe save your money next time and listen to the autistic trading savant rather than yourself. GG.
XLE breaks TL but holds vol profile zone(75-77); is 71 or 65 nxtUpdate on my last post that XLE energy sector must hold the red trendline at 79.
BEARISH CASE shortterm: On Thursday it broke not only the TL but also broke below my yellow consolidation box.(middle one). As of now it is holding the volume profile zone at 75 to 77 area. Looking at the heavy selling volume in all sectors, a double bottom at 71 is very probable. 76.70 is the 0.618 Fib level while 71 is the 0.786 Fib.
Worse, we may even see a retest of the blue wedge at the 65 pivot line. That will be a 100% retracement back to the Feb 24 invasion low. (It broke out of the blue wedge & retested it last Jan 2022 & proceeded to make a measured 10 points move to 82 & then another 10 points move to 92)
Still BULLISH longterm:
If XLE bottoms out at the current volume profile zone & reclaims the red trendline in the next few days, we may see a retest of 92 or maybe even push another 10 points higher to 102. You may ask if that is still possible with a slowing economy? Bear markets on average starts 5 months before actual recession (2 consecutive Quarters of negative GDP). We are now at the 5th month but employment & production & consumption numbers still suggest recession is still far out maybe in 2H2023. Either we are in uncharted territory with a prolonged bear market or maybe we will see another melt-up rally first before recession kicks in. This will be possible if inflation & rates slow down with the FED pivoting to less hawkish stance in September after the already priced-in June & July 75 basis point rate hikes.
Note: A slowly rising dollar will not be good for commodities like oil, food, industrial metals & gold but it will help cushion the bad effects of inflation on buying power…good for imports but bad for exports.
Not trading advice. Pls like & follow if this helps!
Is $XLE making a bearish ascending wedge?It seems like the Energy sector ETF $XLE is making an ascending bearish wedge.
It's showing lots of resistance around the $82.9 area and hasn't be able to close above it for the past ~2weeks.
I wouldn't be surprised if it has a fake breakout to the upside before eventually falling back inside the wedge.
Keep an eye out for a break to the down side as the measured objective would be around the $64.7 area.
I'm neutral for the time being but keeping a close eye on this for a bearish reversal.