Mcdonald Trading dairy: ready to the moon?As we mentioned 2 days before, Mcdonald has formed a trend reversal pattern after breaking above the consolidation area.
I will set My first target resistance level at $277, which shares the similar level with previous highs and the long-term downtrend line.
Trade ideas
McDonald's Share Price Rises Despite Disappointing ReportMcDonald's Share Price Rises Despite Disappointing Report
On Monday, before the start of regular trading, McDonald's reported its second-quarter results:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $2.97, expected = $3.07;
→ Gross revenue: actual = $6.49 billion, expected = $6.62 billion;
→ Net profit for the quarter was $2.02 billion, 12% less than the previous year.
The company's management notes that consumers are limiting spending. CEO Chris Kempczinski mentioned that customers are buying fewer items per visit or opting for cheaper products. Many people prefer dining at home, a trend consistent across various regions of the world.
Nonetheless, McDonald's share price rose by 3.7% on Monday's trading, making it the leader of the day among Dow Jones stocks. Investors were encouraged by the following:
→ McDonald's maintains its overall forecast for new stores, capital expenditures, and operating margin for the year, whereas, for example, the Domino's Pizza chain announced it would reduce the number of new openings worldwide;
→ McDonald's is seeking ways to boost sales, such as the $5 combo meal. Initially launched for just a month, this promotion has been extended through the end of summer.
From a technical analysis perspective, McDonald's shares present concerns:
→ The upward trend (shown in blue), which had been in place for many months, has been broken – the price forcefully breached the lower boundary in May;
→ However, bulls may find hope in the fact that when the price dropped below the 2023 low of around $246 in mid-July, no further bearish momentum followed – a false bearish breakout of an important extremum formed on the chart.
But how optimistic can the prospects be?
Jefferies analysts maintain a "buy" rating for McDonald's shares, though they have lowered the target price from $320.00 to $310.00.
A significant obstacle to the rise in MCD share price is the resistance block formed by the lower boundary of the channel (as former support) and the $265 level.
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McDonald's Earnings Miss For the First Time Since 2020McDonald's second-quarter earnings report fell short of analysts' expectations as higher prices contributed to a decline in foot traffic and comparable store sales. Despite efforts to boost sales with promotions like the "$5 Meal Deal," the fast food giant faced challenges in maintaining revenue and profitability.
Key Takeaways:
- Revenue and Profits: McDonald's reported $6.49 billion in total revenue for Q2, nearly identical to the same period in 2023, but fell short of the $6.63 billion projected by analysts. Net income dropped 12% year-over-year to $2.02 billion, missing expectations of $2.24 billion.
- Comparable Sales Decline: Global comparable sales fell 1% from last year, with U.S. locations experiencing a drop in foot traffic due to higher prices. Sales decreases in France and China offset improvements in Japan and Latin America.
- Impact of Promotions: The recent "$5 Meal Deal" promotion provided a late-quarter boost, though its full impact will be more evident in the third quarter.
Detailed Analysis:
Revenue and Profit Performance
In the second quarter of 2024, McDonald's revenue remained flat at $6.49 billion compared to the same period in 2023. Analysts had anticipated a growth in revenue to $6.63 billion, but the reality fell short. This stagnation in revenue was accompanied by a notable decline in net income, which dropped 12% year-over-year to $2.02 billion, compared to analysts' expectations of $2.24 billion.
Comparable Sales and Foot Traffic
The global comparable sales decline of 1% highlighted the challenges McDonald's faced in maintaining customer engagement amid rising prices. In the U.S., higher menu prices led to reduced foot traffic, contributing to a 0.7% decline in same-store sales. Internationally, sales fell by 1.1%, driven by weaknesses in markets like France and China, which overshadowed gains in Japan and Latin America.
Promotional Efforts and Market Response
In response to the declining sales, McDonald's launched the "$5 Meal Deal" promotion in an effort to attract price-sensitive customers. While this promotion only impacted the final days of the second quarter, it is expected to have a more significant effect on third-quarter earnings. Early reports suggest that the promotion has been successful, potentially continuing into August to sustain momentum.
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski emphasized the company's commitment to delivering "reliable, everyday value" and accelerating growth drivers such as chicken and loyalty programs. Despite these efforts, the broader economic environment and consumer price sensitivity have posed substantial challenges.
Market Reaction
Shares of McDonald's have experienced a 15% decline in value so far this year. However, the stock showed a slight recovery, up 3.77% in Monday's trading session following the earnings announcement. This reflects a cautious optimism among investors that the company's strategic initiatives may eventually pay off. The stock has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 57.83, indicating potential for further growth. Adding to the potential growth is the bullish flag pattern depicted on the chart.
Conclusion
McDonald's second-quarter performance underscores the difficulties faced by the fast food industry amid rising prices and shifting consumer behaviors. While the "$5 Meal Deal" and other strategic initiatives show promise, the company must navigate a complex landscape to regain growth and profitability.
MCD 1H Swing / Investment Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade
+ long impulse
+ expanding T2
+ volumed 2Sp-
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
Take profit:
1/3 1 to 2 R/R
1/3 daily T1 level
1/3 monthly 1/2
Daily trend
"+ long impulse
+ expanding T2
+ volumed 2Sp-
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry"
Monthly trens
"+ long impulse
+ volumed T2 level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ biggest volume Sp
+ weak test"
MCD @NYSE
Sell Limit 261.99, GTC
Sell Stop 250.94 LMT 253.18, GTC
Sell Limit 257.63, GTC
OCO 2A: Sell Shares of MCD Limit at $271.49 (Good 'til Canceled)
OCO 2B: Sell Shares of MCD Stop at $250.94 Limit at $251.94 (Good 'til Canceled)
McDonald's Potential Support Breakout At $245.64. 29.07.2024- McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) potential support breakout at $245.64.
- If support breaks:
- Target 1: $230.13
- Target 2: $210.40
- If breakout fails:
- Target 1: $257.85
- Target 2: $267.43
Apply risk management
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Disclaimer
MCD NEW BULLISH LEG? OR SIMPLE DEAD CAT BOUNCE ?MCD, after having underperformed compared to its reference index, seems to have ended a bearish distribution phase. Watch out for this bounce. To test the goodness and strength of the rise it is necessary to test how the price reacts to the POC of the distribution area set at 267.30. stay tuned, stay strong, until the end
Double TopMcDonald's share price is drawing the company's logo on the chart, which is a potential Double Top trend change figure. If the support area of 250.00 is broken, the potential for a fall to 200.00 will open up.
There have been three similar situations of this magnitude in the history of the company. All of them realized a 30-60% drop, i.e. they were senior corrections.
Good Time To Buy MCD??Reasons To Invest In McDonald's
Long-Term Bullish Trend: The overall long-term trend for McDonald’s stock is bullish, indicating strong growth potential.
Support at 200 SMA on Weekly Chart: The stock has pulled back to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the weekly chart, a key support level.
Historical Price Bounce: McDonald’s stock has bounced at this price level twice before, showing a pattern of support.
Monthly RSI at Pandemic Lows: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the monthly chart is at levels not seen since the pandemic, suggesting it might be oversold.
Low Weekly RSI: The RSI on the weekly chart is also low, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
Bullish Divergence: There is bullish divergence on both the daily and weekly charts, which can signal a reversal or continuation of an uptrend.
Bearish Monthly Candles: There have been four consecutive bearish monthly candles, so a move higher is more likely as the stock may be due for a rebound.
Potential for 20% Gain: A return to the all-time high would result in a 20% gain from the current price.
McDonald's Elliott WaveHello friends
In McDonald's stock, we see the formation of a 5-wave impulse pattern that has been completed. These 5 waves can be considered as wave A or 1. Now, with the break of the trend line at the end of wave 5 and the retreat towards it, we expect the price to rise to the $262 range. This increase can occur in the dominance of a zigzag or any corrective pattern. Stop loss can also be considered at 245 which is an important support.
The second target of the $280 range can be considered.
Be successful and profitable.
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MCD, 200 sma on the weekly BIG Support!! One could buy shares long term, or put sales or bull put spreads *once / if* MCD gets down into the $244 price zone.
Gonna be super boring. But overall, likely profitable. MCD hasn't hit the 200 sma(on adjusted for dividends) chart since covid. When it bounced very hard.
:-)
The Golden Arches at a Technical Crossroad .McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD), a stalwart in the fast-food industry, is currently navigating turbulent waters. As of the latest market close, MCD is priced at $253.70, reflecting a slight dip in the pre-market at $253.44. The stock's technical indicators and recent price action suggest a critical juncture, providing both potential risks and opportunities for traders and investors alike.
MCD's price action is currently showing signs of bearish pressure, as evidenced by the recent downturn in the stock's weekly candlestick pattern. The closing price of $253.70 positions the stock just above its immediate support level of approximately $252.80. This level is crucial as it marks the lower boundary of the recent trading range and could serve as a pivot point for future price movements.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): With an RSI of 33.82, MCD is approaching oversold territory. This typically signals that the stock may be undervalued and could be due for a bounce. However, caution is advised as RSI alone isn't a definitive buy signal.
Short-term MAs (10, 20, 30-day EMAs and SMAs) are all indicating a bearish trend as they align above the current price, suggesting downward pressure.
The 200-day EMA at 253.41 is acting as a key support level. A sustained break below this could open up further downside risks.
MACD: The MACD level at -6.86 indicates a bearish momentum, as the signal line is positioned below the MACD line, reinforcing the downtrend.
The momentum indicator at -12.99 shows a bearish outlook, yet the proximity to oversold levels hints at a potential reversal if buying interest materializes.
Stochastic Oscillator (%K at 14.74): Suggests a buy signal as it indicates the stock is oversold and could be due for an upward correction.
The weekly chart reveals a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows forming since the peak earlier in the year. This bearish pattern is compounded by the stock trading below the Ichimoku cloud, which typically suggests continued downward momentum. The volume profile shows a decline in buying interest, as seen by the diminishing green bars, underscoring the selling pressure.
Recent news highlights a mixed sentiment towards the fast-food sector. Despite inflationary pressures and shifting consumer preferences, McDonald's has shown resilience in its financial performance. The latest earnings reports indicate steady revenue, but the market remains cautious amid broader economic uncertainties.
Support Levels: Immediate support lies at $252.80, followed by stronger support at the $250 psychological level. A break below these levels could accelerate the downward movement towards the $245.00 - $240.00 range.
Near-term resistance is seen around $260.00, aligning with the 20-day SMA. A breach above this could signal a short-term bullish reversal, targeting the $270.00 - $275.00 range.
Trade Recommendation
Short-Term Long Position:
Entry: Consider entering a long position if the price rebounds off the $252.80 support level with confirmation (such as a bullish candlestick pattern or increased volume).
Target: Aim for the $260.00 resistance level, with a potential stretch goal to $270.00.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below $250.00 to protect against further downside.
Short Position:
Entry: Enter a short position on a decisive break below $252.80 with strong volume.
Target: Look for a move towards $245.00, and further to $240.00 if the bearish momentum persists.
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss above $255.00 to mitigate risk if the breakout fails.
While McDonald's (MCD) is teetering on the edge of critical support, its near-oversold status presents a potential short-term buying opportunity. However, traders should remain vigilant for further bearish developments that could lead to additional downside. The interplay of these factors makes MCD a compelling candidate for both long and short strategies in the upcoming sessions.






















