MSTR HIGH PROBABILITY BIG BULL MOVE SOON!!!🚨 MSTR HIGH PROBABILITY BUY SETUP 🚨
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MicroStrategy - The red channel of doom returns - November 2025Ah, MicroStrategy…. the stock that’s half software company, half Bitcoin cult. Every time you think it’s about to behave like a normal tech firm, Michael Saylor pops up with a grin, another billion dollars of debt, and the conviction of a man who’s never heard the words “margin call.”
And here we are, November 2025, staring at the Red Channel Crossover. Sounds ominous doesn’t it? Like something NASA would warn about before the Sun goes super nova.
Déjà Vu: February 2022 Says Hello
Look left.
The last time price action crossed into the red channel was February 2022. Market structure broke. Price dumped. Holders prayed. And then just when everyone thought it was over, sneaky sellers rotated the gravity dial to 2G.
Now we’re back at it. November 2025, same crossover, same setup, same “this time is different” nonsense. Every influencer on X is already typing “Buy the dip 🚀”, as if adding a rocket emoji somehow fixes negative momentum.
The technicals
The green channel represents calm waters, an uptrend, happy times, and Saylor buying jets with the profits. The red channel is the opposite. It’s like when the hangover kicks in and you realise that was not sugar free Red Bull. Each time MSTR entered this red zone, it meant one thing:
Broken market structure,
50–70% correction,
Mass denial phase.
Right now, the chart’s showing that same red crossover again, after breaking below structural support around the $240 area. If you’re still shouting “to the moon” at this point… well that rocket exploded months ago.
RSI & sentiment
RSI is rolling over faster than a drunk at a wedding. Momentum’s drained and what’s left are bag holders explaining to their spouses that “it’s a long-term store of value.” It’s not. It’s a tech stock with a crypto addiction.
So what happens next?
If history’s anything to go by, and it usually is, price action is heading for the same fate it suffered post February 2022:
First, a short-lived bounce to sucker in the hopeful.
Then, the slow, grinding descent into despair.
A retrace toward the $80–$100 region would fit perfectly with prior cycle behaviour. And if Bitcoin confirms its own Gaussian bear trend, well… let’s just say Michael Saylor’s going to need more than “diamond hands”, he’ll need a therapist.
Before that can happen expect price action to test the $300 area to confirm broken market structure. Today price action is considerably oversold, this idea only becomes validated after a resistance confirmation on past support . Wrote that in bold for those of you who struggle to get past the headline. I blame Tik-Tok
Conclusions
Every cycle it’s the same story:
1. MSTR breaks structure.
2. The red channel appears.
3. Everyone panics.
4. Then comes the silence.
The only variable is how many motivational tweets Saylor can post before margin calls start rolling in. This setup isn’t new, isn’t rare, and isn’t bullish, it’s just math doing its job while people pretend it’s spiritual warfare. So yes, the red channel crossover is back. Same movie. Different year. Still ends badly for the extras.
Ww
Disclaimer
==================================================================
This isn’t financial advice, obviously. If you need a stranger on the internet to tell you not to buy a company using borrowed money to gamble on Bitcoin, you deserve the portfolio you get.
If it pumps, you’ll take credit.
If it dumps, you’ll blame the FED.
Either way, I’ll be here limiting my desire to say "I told you so".
MSTR - Ripping Short Squeeze Could Be In The PipelineHas looked terrible for quite some time now.
And although it may not ever make another high, I think it may be time for a hard bounce.
Notice that as Bitcoin hits $94K, it has gone oversold on the week RSI and has re-tested the previous tier - 2024 peak.
For this to be a perfect setup, MSTR would be within the 1:1 Golden Window, but it is not - the 1:1 GW is slightly below.
This may signal that it may slip down a little more to that ratio band.
But bounces do also arrive without perfect ratio - especially in selling climaxes.
MSTR is a very popular stock for shorts and Michael Saylor seems to be a popular villain character amongst crypto bears.
So I think we may get a ripping short squeeze either here or slightly lower.
Remember that MSTR often leads Bitcoin at the start of bullish phases - so perhaps that may happen again.
If it did then we may see a swift recovery if Bitcoin is also finding a low 🤨.
This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
Final Leg of Epic Run - Blow off top reaching climaxMicrostrategy has exceeded all expectations, smashing past previous all time highs along with Bitcoin. As Bitcoin approaches 100k, now is a good time for bears to consider where they can short Microstrategy in the event of a pullback.
I think this is setting up an opportunity for an epic short opportunity, not one that I will be immediately jumping into as I don't advocate shorting all time highs. However, if we reach my Fib extensions and if there is bearish divergences then this could be an epic drop.
It looks like this is the final 5th wave of a larger 5th wave Supercycle, the blow off top is almost complete. I'm waiting for a change in market structure. The price range of $530 to $650 is where I see the drop starting, I will wait patiently for the short trade. I will also be paying close attention to the Bitcoin price action.
Not financial advice, do what's best for you.
MSTR Short Closed: Michael Burry vibesI started my NASDAQ:MSTR short last November during the retail yeet. I really took a dislike to Saylor telling people to mortgage all they could to buy Bitcoin and then later to buy stock in his company. The history of finance is littered with con men saying and doing such things. History doesn't repeat but it rhymes.
Now the stock sits on a key Support; the March 2024 high and the prime Volume Profile level of the run up. Its time to unwind the position in profit and see what happens next.
MSTR hitting a Support coincides with CRYPTO:BTCUSD also hitting a major Volume Profile Support. The Weekly Ichimoku chart remains bullish. A recovery pullback up could happen from here.
Over the last year I've had to go through the cycle of being "right" and being "wrong" all the while being public in my position among Bitcoin Maxi friends. They enjoyed poking fun at me the whole way. Their arrogance and jabs did not change my mind, rather they gave me some confidence that I was properly contrarian. Hubris never pays off in investing. Every great trade I have made has begun (and lasted) in deep uncertainty. That is what it means to take risk.
I still believe that the narrative of MSTR has yet to completely dissolve among the faithful but I have a habit of always taking profit "too early."
Trade wisely. Stay convicted.
Strategy's Premium is Gone. Time to Load? 4 months ago, I posted that NASDAQ:MSTR premium was unsustainable and the stock price would drop.
Since then, the price dropped by 50%!!
Now, Strategy's is close to zero, and I flip my views on it.
If you like this kind of trade, it might be a good time to start DCA'ing it.
Note that Strategy continues to be a highly volatile stock, more volatile than Bitcoin itself.
Finally, the stock is now at a technical resistance level.
You can keep an eye on the premium/discount of this stock by looking at my 2 indicators:
Market to NAV Premium Arbitrage Alpha Indicator , and
Asset Premium/Discount Monitor
Microstrategy is who Satoshi warned us about. MSTR has broken below the 50 day moving average and is now at 52 weeks low. All while they hold the most bitcoin they ever have, now at 641,000 BTC. Some would even say they are trying to corner the market, using debt - while they claim they will never sell, but also they are not even earning any yield on their holdings. They will owe over $600 million in dividend payments next year. You simply can not create value out of thin air. NASDAQ:MSTR
$MSTR Bullish Shark Harmonic completedNASDAQ:MSTR : C wave of this ABC correction has gone beyond A, meeting the requirements of an ABC flat correction. Bullish Shark Harmonic also looks complete.
Strategy: Downward Pressure Intensifies Strategy has continued to develop downward pressure as anticipated since our last update, bringing it closer to the targeted low of the turquoise wave 2. Our alternative—and now grayed-out—Target Zone has been breached to the downside, allowing us to remove the alternative scenario of a premature breakout to the upside. Investors who speculated on this alternative and entered within the alternative Target Zone with a stop 1% below the lower edge have likely been stopped out by now. For now, we are still allowing some room for turquoise wave 2 to move lower; however, it should find its bottom above the support at $102.40 to set the stage for wave 3 to advance further above the resistance at $674.18.
MSTR: Full Reset before Full SendWhy March 2025 Could See New Highs
What's Happening Right Now?
Everyone is freaking out right now, but this is actually creating one of the best buying opportunities we've seen. Bitcoin is trading around $95,600 after dropping about 24% from its peak of $126,000 in October.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 10 (Extreme Fear) – and you know what they say? Be greedy when others are fearful. But, also, be patient and set limits.
The thing is, most people don't understand the economics behind Bitcoin or how liquidity actually works in crypto markets. We're playing a completely different game than stocks here.
The Real Cost to Mine Bitcoin (And Why It Matters)
Here's where it gets interesting. The big mining operations are producing Bitcoin for around $26,000-$28,000 per coin, while less efficient miners saw costs spike to $114,842 in October 2025... That's a massive range, and it tells you everything about where the floor is.
After the April 2024 halving, it now takes 854,400 kilowatt-hours to mine just one Bitcoin – that's about 81 years of electricity for an average home, just for one coin. That's a fun fact.
No smart miner is going to sell at a loss when they're paying that much for electricity and equipment (GPUs, etc). They'll just hold and wait. This creates natural supply constraints .
The Liquidity Trap (This Is the Key)
Right now, the market is in what I call a liquidity trap. As Bitcoin crashed from $126K down to where we are now, all the leveraged traders got wiped out. We saw $870 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows in a single day – that's both panic selling and intelligent, planned shorting, not fundamental weakness.
Here's what most people are missing: if Bitcoin drops to around $75K, it's going to unlock massive amounts of liquidity – I'm talking hundreds of millions, possibly billions of dollars that's currently locked up in long positions (Futures).
When those long get liquidated, the shorts will likely reverse their positions, that money floods back into the market and creates a supply shock. Basic economics: limited supply + sudden demand increase = price explosion.
Price Targets & When to Buy
I think we'll see $89K very soon – possibly this week between Monday and Wednesday (November 17-19, 2025). But here's my recommended strategy instead of trying to catch the exact bottom:
First Buy: $89K
Put in about 30% of what you're planning to invest. This is still a good entry even though it's not the absolute bottom.
Second Buy: $80K
Another 35% here. This is where things get really interesting from a risk/reward perspective.
Third Buy: $75K
The final 35%. This is the sweet spot where all that trapped liquidity gets released. Remember, demand increases as the price drops, and miners won't sell below cost. That's your supply shock waiting to happen.
What About MicroStrategy?
MSTR has crashed about 40% and is now trading at only 1.06 times its Bitcoin holdings, down from 2.7 times. The stock is around $200-$237 now, way down from its November 2024 high of $543.
My prediction: MSTR will probably hit the $140-$150 range, maybe even drop to $100-$120 (which is where it found strong support from March to September 2024). If we do see those lower prices, I'm going all-in on NASDAQ:MSTX shares, not NASDAQ:MSTR – the 2x leverage structure is better.
The Macro Picture
Fed rate cut expectations dropped from 90% to about 40%, which is why everything's selling off. But this is temporary sentiment, not permanent damage. The infrastructure is still being built, institutions are still coming in, and the fundamentals haven't changed.
Bottom Line
Be patient. Wait for the dips. Bitcoin will likely hit $89K this week, and from there we could see further drops to $80K and $75K. Each level is a buying opportunity. By March 2025, I expect we'll be making new all-time highs.
The key is understanding that crypto operates on different rules than stocks. Liquidity and supply dynamics matter more than anything else right now.
Good luck,
Terrapins
MSTR TRADES UP 1X FOR EVERY BTC UP, BUT 3-4X DOWN WITH BTCMSTR is dead. the "Leverage"is 3-4x down for btc movement, but only 1x up for btc movement
the degradation of how far below each btc ath is also getting worse, it has doubled since the last btc ath.
MSTR - How to profit from a $140 short target🔱 The MS ponzi is taking its toll. 🔱
I’m not laughing, because it’s genuinely unfortunate for everyone who believed in this scam.
But today, I don’t want to rant about that.
I want to show how one could profit from a potential drop of more than $100.
As an Andrews Pitchfork trader, I know there’s roughly an 80% chance that price will reach the centerline. From there, price either reverses in the opposite direction or breaks through the centerline to continue its journey.
That’s exactly what happened with MSTR.
You can see how the price first reached the centerline, held there a few times, and then broke it. Since then, it’s been following the rulebook by moving further to the downside.
Now, there’s another rule worth remembering:
price often tests or retests the line it just broke.
In our case, that line is the centerline.
This means we could be lucky enough to get a pullback to the centerline, and that would be a good level to consider shorting.
The target is usually the opposite line of the centerline, which in our case is the L-MLH (Lower Median Line Parallel).
👉 If you want to learn the full framework and its rules, check the links for free material.
I hope this helps many of you, and I wish you all good profits.
MSTR Trading Close To Support Based on Elliott wave and CyclesMicroStrategy has seen a strong uptrend since the December 2022 lows, but over the last year the market has been in a retracement phase. It appears that this could be another A-B-C setback within a higher-degree wave four, where subwave C could potentially retest the 200 area, or even extend toward the deeper 132 support. That level also aligns with the February 2021 high, making it an important zone to watch.
Cycle-wise, it looks like we’re currently in the middle of a full cycle, suggesting that the correction could be moving into second half of this retracement, and may come to an end within the next few months. Ideally, we could then see a new turn higher in 2026, continuing the broader bullish trend.
Highlights:
Trend: Corrective pullback in wave four
Support: 200 / 132
Cycle View: Mid-cylce; possible new rebound early 2026
Note: Structure fits within a broader five-wave bullish sequence, with strong long-term trend intact
GH
MicroStrategy - Mean ReversionAfter a choppy but still successful call on MSTR in Feb, we are back with another one. Heavily oversold and ready to shoot alongside $BTC.
MSTR pull back a buying opportunityMSTR checking key supports.
Respects the trend started 2 years ago, revisiting a historical RSI low, only seen back in June 2022.
$MSTR bounce above $300 before falling further?Ever since Early October, MSTR has been falling. We've now reached the bottom of a flag structure and I'd expect a bounce here before we fall further.
I think the most likely path from here is that we see a rally into the $300 zone, however, it's possible that we can go up to the top of the flag before falling further.
That said, if we get a rally, it'll be a rally you want to sell because eventually I think we're heading down to the $100 level before you want to become a long term buyer.
I've marked off key resistances on the path up to take profits on a long, should the rally play out from here.
435This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
$MSTR: AB = CD target almost reachedNASDAQ:MSTR : the AB = CD targets $233 and today's low is $236.86. Very close. If NASDAQ:MSTR can bounce here, or fake breakdown to 233 or lower than bounce back, it would be good for Bitcoin. I don't own NASDAQ:MSTR shares and don't plan to trade this name. I'm looking at NASDAQ:MSTR as another data point to gauge bitcoin.
(micro)StrategyThe red submarine has started to descend again and it presents us a buy opportunity as rarely seen in stocks.
MicroStrategyBitcoin.
Still lots of downside left on the table for Saylor's MicroStrategy.
More time required before any type of lower risk entry point morphs into existence.
MicroStrategy Under Pressure: Bearish Playbook in Action🎯 MSTR: The "Thief's Playbook" - Strategic Bear Trap Setup! 💰🔥
📊 Asset Overview
MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) - Bitcoin's Proxy Play in the Stock Market
🎭 The Setup: When Bears Come to Party
Alright folks, gather 'round! We've got ourselves a textbook triangular moving average breakdown on MSTR that's screaming "short opportunity" louder than my portfolio after a bad trade week! 😅
Current Market Sentiment: 🐻 BEARISH CONFIRMED
The technicals are aligning like planets before a lunar eclipse - and trust me, this eclipse might cast some shadows on those long positions!
🎯 The "Thief Strategy" Game Plan
🚪 Entry Zones - The Layering Approach
Here's where it gets spicy! 🌶️ Instead of going all-in like a degen at a casino, we're using the "Thief Layering Method" - multiple limit sell orders to scale into this position:
Suggested Entry Layers:
🥇 Layer 1: $300
🥈 Layer 2: $290
🥉 Layer 3: $280
💎 Layer 4: $270
🔥 Layer 5: $260
Pro Tip: You can add MORE layers based on your risk appetite and account size. More layers = Better average entry = Smoother sleep at night! 😴
🛡️ Risk Management - The "Oh Sh*t" Line
Stop Loss: 🚨 $320
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTICE: Dear Thief OGs, Ladies & Gentlemen! This SL is MY line in the sand. YOU need to decide YOUR own risk tolerance. Trade at your own risk, manage your own money, and don't blame me if things go sideways! This ain't financial advice - it's entertainment with charts! 🎪
🎁 Target Zone - Where We Cash Out
Take Profit Target: 🎯 $210
Why $210?
💪 Strong historical support level
📉 Oversold territory expected
Classic bull trap zone where longs get liquidated
⚠️ ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTICE: Thief OGs! This is MY target. You do YOU! If you see profits earlier and want to secure the bag - DO IT! Don't be greedy. Take profits when YOU feel comfortable. Your account, your rules, your responsibility! 💼
🔗 Related Assets to Watch - The Correlation Game
Keep your eyes on these bad boys for confirmation:
📈 Direct Correlations:
NASDAQ:MARA (Marathon Digital) - Bitcoin miner, moves with crypto sentiment
NASDAQ:RIOT (Riot Platforms) - Another BTC miner, similar volatility pattern
NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase) - Crypto exchange, sentiment indicator
CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Bitcoin spot) - The godfather! MSTR holds massive BTC, direct correlation
🧠 Key Points:
MSTR trades with ~1.5x-2x Bitcoin beta (more volatile than BTC itself)
When Bitcoin dumps, MSTR often dumps HARDER 📉
Watch BTC support at $60K - if it breaks, MSTR likely follows to our target zone
Tech sector weakness ( NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:SPY ) adds bearish pressure
⚡ Trading Psychology - The "Thief Mindset"
Look, this setup requires PATIENCE! 🧘♂️ Don't FOMO in at market price. Layer in like a professional thief planning a heist - calculated, methodical, strategic! This isn't gambling; it's probability management with a side of humor! 😎
🎪 Final Word from Your Friendly Neighborhood Chart Thief
Remember: Markets are wild, unpredictable, and don't care about your feelings OR your bills! This analysis is for educational and entertainment purposes ONLY. The "Thief Strategy" is MY trading style - it's risky, it's aggressive, and it's definitely NOT for everyone!
Do your own research. Manage your own risk. Trade what you can afford to lose. And for the love of all that's holy, don't mortgage your house based on some random internet chart analysis! 🏠❌
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
🏷️ #MSTR #MicroStrategy #ShortSetup #BearishBreakdown #SwingTrade #DayTrade #ThiefStrategy #BitcoinStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverageCrossover #LayeringStrategy #RiskManagement #StockMarket #TradingIdeas #BTC #CryptoStocks #BearTrap #SupportAndResistance #ChartAnalysis #TradeSmart
🎯 Trade smart, layer in, manage risk, and may the profits be ever in your favor! 💰🚀
MSTR further downside but looking exhaustedNASDAQ:MSTR Price continues range bound in a complex wave 4 correction, notoriously hard to analyse. The trend is down but looks exhausted.
Wave Y can complete any time in this flat correction pattern but is approaching the previous swing low and the 0.236 Fibonnacci retracement.
Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence but price continues lower. IF pice breaks down further the next target is $185 where price may find a bottom.
Recovering the daily 200EMA is the first goal.
