Silver: A Sell Signal?COMEX: Micro Silver Futures ( COMEX_MINI:SIL1! )
What happened to the silver market? A previous all-time-high (ATH) record of $49.95 per ounce was set on January 17, 1980, and stood for 45 years until silver broke $50 in October 2025. Since then, silver prices kept climbing nonstop and setting new ATH records almost daily. Last Friday, November 28th, silver reached $56.86.
COMEX Silver Futures ( AMEX:SIL ) locked in an impressive 98% return year-to-date, which makes silver the top performer across all major asset classes year to date.
The strength of silver is supported by a confluence of factors including inflows into bullion-backed ETFs and expectations of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Investors rotated assets out of stock amid recent market weaknesses, benefiting the safe-haven assets gold and silver. In addition, gold purchases have slowed in recent months due to the record high prices. Some investors may choose silver as an alternative hedging asset.
However, a key metric suggests that the tide is about to change.
A Refresher:
In my writing published on April 28th, I introduced the Gold-Silver Ratio, a financial term that measures the relative value of gold to silver. The Gold-Silver Ratio may be used as a buying or selling signal.
When to Buy Silver : A high Ratio, typically above the 95:1 mark, suggests that silver is undervalued relative to gold. This is often interpreted as a buying signal for silver.
• Recalling that in the April 28th writing, we explored the idea of buying silver at $33 when the Ratio stood at 100. Silver prices went up 72% since then.
When to Sell Silver : When the Ratio is low, say around 80:1, it indicates that silver is relatively expensive. Investors might consider selling silver and buying gold.
• As silver caught up with gold with its recent rally, the Ratio is declining all the way down to 74. This is a level indicating silver is very expensive relative to gold. From a mean-reversing point of view, the Ratio may rebound back to the 80-90 range soon.
In my opinion, gold could show more strength compared to silver in the new year.
• Global central banks have slowed gold purchases recently. Gold getting expensive did not cause the pause. Annual budget depleting may be a more plausible reason. A new year comes with new budget, and I expect central bank buying to resume in 2026.
• Silver is part precious metal and part industrial metal. Global GDP in 2026 is projected to slow to 2.9% to 3.1%, with downside risks from geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty, according to the IMF. Industrial use of silver could slow as well.
• Expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising. The stock market could rally again, causing investors to rotate money out of safe-haven assets. In my opinion, gold could stand its ground better than silver, with central bank purchases serving as a key support. In this scenario, the Ratio rises because silver falling faster than gold.
Trade Setup with Micro Silver
Traders could apply the insights from the Gold-Silver Ratio with trading strategies using COMEX Micro Silver Futures ( AMEX:SIL ). There are a number of reasons why shorting silver makes sense:
• Traders expect mean-reversion of the Gold-Silver Ratio will occur soon.
• Investors expect Fed rate cuts to be bullish for stocks and bearish for precious metals.
• Traders with portfolio of spot silver or silver ETF want to hedge their positions.
The big advantages of using futures contracts are capital efficiency and leverage. Micro Silver contracts have a notional value of 1,000 troy ounces of silver. With Friday settlement price of $57.455, each January contract (SILF6) has a notional value of $57,455. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $4,000 at the time of writing. This suggests a built-in leverage of 14.4 (= 57455/4000) for futures contracts.
By putting a deposit equivalent to 70 ounces, traders could gain the full exposure of 1,000 ounces of silver. If silver prices move down by 10%, a short position in Micro Silver futures would gain 144% (= (57455*0.1) / 4000).
Micro silver futures (SIL, 1000 oz) and standard-size silver futures contracts (SI, 5000 oz) contracts together form a deep liquidity pool. On November 28th, SI had trade volume of 109,967 contracts and an open interest (OI) of 155,222 contracts. SIL had volume and OI of 79,015 and 14,900 contracts, respectively, according to data from CME Group.
To hedge the risk of rising silver prices, a trader could set a stoploss on his short-silver order. For illustration, a short order is executed at 57.455 with a stoploss at 59.0. If silver goes up 10% to $63.2, the maximum loss will be $1,545 (= (59-57.455)*1000), well within the margin account balance of $4,000.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
