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DXY at Major Support – Dollar Ready to Rebound?Today, I want to analyze the DXY index ( TVC:DXY ) for you. First, I must say that this week, US indexes can have an impact on the DXY index trend . US indexes to be released this week: Core PPI m/m: Tomorrow PPI m/m: Tomorrow Core CPI m/m: Thursday CPI m/m: Thursday CPI y/y: Thursday Unemployment Claims: Thursday Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: Friday The DXY Index is currently moving near the Support zone($97.989-$97.834) , Yearly Support(2) , and the lower line of the descending channel . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the DXY index has managed to complete microwave 5 of the main wave C . The corrective structure is of the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) type. Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD+) between consecutive valleys . I expect the DXY index to rise to at least $98.07(First Target) before the US indexes are announced. Second Target: $98.56 Stop Loss(SL): $96.997 Note: With the DXY index rising, we can expect a correction in Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ), Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), and major Forex pairs (dollar strength). Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar Index Analyze (DXYUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
27
US Dollar: Bearish! Buyside LQ Sweep Before Rate Cut?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 15 - 19th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar The USD has a .25 basis point rate cut coming Wednesday. Will there be a manipulation of the buy side liquidity before prices turn downward? I am looking out for this fake out maneuver by MMs, being mindful the rate cut will weaken the USD against its counterparts. A short term move higher before the market turns bearish with the news announcements is more then possible. Wait and react. Do not predict. React and do not predict. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
4
Bearish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 98.11 1st Support: 97.36 1st Resistance: 98.47 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
1
Head and Shoulders Pattern on U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Overview of the Idea (as shown in the chart) The chart illustrates a Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern forming on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). This classical technical pattern signals a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. Left Shoulder: The first peak followed by a pullback. Head: A higher peak, forming the top of the pattern. Right Shoulder: A lower peak compared to the head, roughly equal to the left shoulder. Neckline: A support line connecting the lows between the shoulders. Once broken, it indicates potential bearish continuation. The chart highlights: A breakout below the neckline. A retest of the neckline (common in H&S setups, where old support becomes resistance). A projected downside target aligned with the height of the head-to-neckline move. Detailed Analysis 1. Pattern Identification The H&S is clear: higher high (Head) flanked by two lower highs (Shoulders). The neckline is slightly ascending, but once broken, it signals sellers stepping in. 2. Breakout Confirmation Price broke below the neckline, confirming the bearish pattern. The retest at ~97.62 shows rejection, strengthening the bearish outlook. 3. Bearish Projection Technical rule: the expected downside target is approximately equal to the distance from the head to the neckline, projected downwards from the breakout point. The chart projects a move toward 97.25, which aligns with the marked support zone. Timing The projection points to Monday, 15/09/25, suggesting this bearish move may unfold in the upcoming trading sessions. Walkthrough Thought Process Think of the market like a battle between buyers and sellers: The buyers pushed price higher (Head), but then failed to sustain strength at the right shoulder. When price breaks the neckline, it shows sellers are gaining control. The retest confirms that what was once support (neckline) has now become resistance. This setup gives traders confidence to enter a short (sell) trade, targeting the projected downside. Trade Idea Entry : After retest rejection around 97.62. Target (TP) : 97.25 (support zone based on H&S projection). Stop Loss (SL) : Above the right shoulder at 97.80 (to protect if pattern fails).
TVC:DXYShort
by MacLongloi
1
Will history repeat for Dixie and TrumpThe Wild Card: The US Dollar (Dixie) Trend. A sustained Trump-led drop in the Dixie (as we had seen in his first term) is still a significant downside risk for the dollar. Potentially lifting majors further even despite the woes of European currencies and most risk assets. This is the "smart money buys dips" trend we've seen across Cable and Euro. However, this is a bet on a US story, not a Euro Zone one and could reverse temporarily before eventually go lower and taking Sterling and the Euro with it as the multi-polar world arises. For now, Dixie has enjoyed a boost from better than expected Treasury sales, last month seeing massive inflows and strong demand. Especially from indirect buyers (foreign investors) with the primary dealers, buyers of last resort, given some respite (seeing lowest participation on record). Perhaps a catalyst for a swift dollar rally into more aggressive downward pressure. With the US potentially dipping into a recession. The dollar generally does well in economic slowdowns. But can it stop the drop to 93.6 ?
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by PointBreak42
2
Bearish drop formation?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 98.63 1st Support: 97.12 1st Resistance: 100.21 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
1
US Dollar Index Drops to 7-Week Low Ahead of Key Inflation DataUS Dollar Index (DXY) Drops to 7-Week Low Ahead of Key Inflation Data As the US Dollar Index (DXY) chart shows, the value of the USD against a basket of other currencies has fallen below 97.30 – its lowest level since late July. The reasons lie in market sentiment ahead of major data releases: → On Wednesday at 15:30 GMT+3, Producer Price Index (PPI) figures will be published; a month ago they came in extremely high. → On Thursday at 15:30 GMT+3, Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are due. These releases are particularly significant as next week the Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on interest rates – a 25-basis-point cut is widely expected. Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart On 18 August, we identified a descending channel (shown in red) based on a sequence of lower highs and lower lows → it remains valid. In addition, our base scenario suggested that the index might test one of the quartile lines (QL and/or QH) dividing the channel → indeed, since then the QH line has been tested several times (red arrow), convincingly acting as resistance. What Next? Bearish case: → Lower highs and lows throughout the second half of August indicate that sellers are in control of the DXY market. → The black arrow marks bearish momentum that broke through support at 98.05 last week. → The drop was sharp (a sign of imbalance in favour of sellers), and yesterday the 98.05 level acted as resistance. Bullish case: → The DXY has dropped into the median zone, where supply and demand often balance. Buyers may step in, viewing current levels as attractive for entry. → The RSI may potentially form a bullish divergence. → The latest candle on the right shows a long lower wick (a bullish pin bar pattern), underlining buyers’ determination. Given the above, we could expect the DXY to hover around the median area. However, the upcoming US inflation reports could trigger volatility across financial markets. A test of support at 97.15 could occur. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXY
by FXOpen
1
US Dollar & FED’s Final Choice: All Possible Scenarios The end of 2025 is shaping up to be decisive for the US dollar. After two years marked by persistent inflation and a slowdown in the labor market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a crucial choice: maintain its current policy or initiate a monetary pivot. Depending on the chosen trajectory, the consequences for the US dollar (measured by the DXY index) could be diametrically opposed. Five main scenarios outline the full range of possible outcomes. No Pivot: Status Quo until 2026 In this scenario, the Fed keeps its policy rate unchanged throughout 2025. Inflation, stuck around 3%, prevents any easing. The key meetings in September, October, and December would therefore result in a status quo. The impact on the FX market would be clear: a strong bullish recovery of the US dollar against major currencies. After being one of the weakest currencies in the FX market, the greenback would regain strength, supported by a favorable rate differential. Technically, a move above 100/101 points would validate this bullish reversal hypothesis. Technical Pivot to Adjust the Labor Market Here, the Fed proceeds with a one-off rate cut in September or October, motivated by a weakening labor market. However, it does not initiate a broader easing cycle due to still-high inflation. This type of pivot, described as “hawkish,” would anchor the DXY around 100 points, corresponding to levels seen in spring and summer 2025. The dollar would therefore remain stable, perhaps with a slight upward bias, without a clear downward trend. Real and Healthy Pivot: Disinflation Confirmed, Labor Market Under Control A more balanced scenario would see the Fed launching a genuine pivot, paving the way for a series of rate cuts starting September 17. Prerequisites would be in place: inflation near 2% and a stabilized labor market. In this case, the impact would be bearish for the dollar. The downward trend, in place since early 2025, would continue. However, since this trend is already well advanced, the downside potential could be limited to the 94–95 zone on the DXY. In other words, moderate but contained pressure. Real but Unhealthy Pivot: Sticky Inflation, Deteriorating Employment This hypothesis combines inflation still close to 3% (notably due to tariffs) with a clear deterioration in the labor market. The Fed would be forced to begin a series of rate cuts, not out of macroeconomic comfort but to try to support activity and employment. The risk of a US recession would intensify, forcing the Fed to act quickly. The effect on the dollar would be pronounced: a prolonged slide towards the lows of 2021, driven by falling rates and heightened perceptions of economic weakness. Emergency Fed PUT: Surging Unemployment and Confirmed Recession Finally, in the most extreme scenario, the US economy would enter a full recession with a sharp rise in unemployment. The Fed would intervene forcefully with massive and rapid rate cuts, confirming the seriousness of the situation. The dollar would respond with a steep plunge, potentially falling back to its 2018 lows. This would reflect investors’ loss of confidence in the resilience of the US economy. The chart below shows the weekly candlesticks of the US Dollar (DXY). DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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TVC:DXY
by Swissquote
1
DXY - My Detailed Bull Thesis Going ForwardDear Friends in Trading, How I see it on a 12HR Time Frame. (To follow my findings so should you) RSI: 4HR = above 50% - 14sma supported 12HR = just below but right at 50% - 14sma supported SUPPORT: The purple line represents a multi layered support area created by HUGE demand. It is the THRESHOLD of institutions and surely the US Government. I have indicated the multiple "demand" rejections - UP in recent history. BACK TEST: (Please see for yourself how price reacted from this support) 1st of MARCH 2022 - 31st of March 2022 Yes, that is the previous time price was where it's at now. 1) 1st of March just below support line, there is a FVG formed. 2) I have drawn this FVG all the way to today - LIGHT BLUE 3) Then look how what price reacted above the purple line once it breached the confluence. MY SUMMARY: For 3 and a half years that FVG have been accumulating demand to hold the INDEX UPWARD. Price can definitely dip into BLUE FVG to muster a "REVERSAL SHOT/BOUNCE" out of the hole. Price can also just do a "BOUNCE" reversal from the current support and rally to compensate for the pending rate cut later this month. I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight. Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
TVC:DXYLong
by ANROC
2
DXY Analysis – Are Bad News Already Priced In?Since Trump entered the White House, the U.S. Dollar has taken a hard hit against its major counterparts, losing more than 10% overall. But looking closer at the chart, we see a different story: since the April low around 97.80, the DXY has been stuck in a range-bound pattern, with the exception of July’s dip that was quickly reversed. Lately, the USD has faced strong headwinds: • Two weak NFP reports in a row. • The Fed hinting at rate cuts. • A constant flow of bearish headlines. And yet, the Dollar did not collapse to fresh lows — instead, it simply revisited the same levels as before. This is a classic market signal that bad news may already be priced in. From a technical standpoint, August was nothing but an annoying tight range: • Support around 97.50. • Resistance near 98.50. Now, although the index looks like it’s breaking lower, I suspect this is another false breakdown, one that could be reversed quickly. If that plays out, the stage is set for a push higher — potentially to the 100 zone, a clean 3% rise from current levels. Such a move would naturally translate into pressure on the majors: • EUR/USD could slide back toward 1.14. • GBP/USD could retreat near 1.35. For now, I’m watching closely for reversal signals. The market has punished the USD for months, but if sellers are exhausted, the Dollar may surprise to the upside. 🚀
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
1
Fibonacci confluence signals bullish reversalUS Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 97.17 1st Support: 96.75 1st Resistance: 97.86 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
USD, DXY Monthly - X Marks the SpotThe US Dollar is near the mid-point of the 20-year range but for the past few months, the currency has been tangling with long-term trendlines that haven't yet shown a willingness of giving way. The upper trendline originates in 2001 and connects to the 2020 high. This caught the low in 2023 and then again in April. Shorter-term, the weekly chart of DXY has been taking a seat on this trendline with sellers unable to yet leave it behind. The support trendline originates in 2011 and connects to the 2021 low. This caught the low around the Q3 open and hasn't been back in play since. But - as we move towards the FOMC rate decision next week this is a big level to watch. With the Fed widely expected to cut rates, the bigger question and likely bigger driver from next week's meeting will likely come from the bank's dot plot matrix, and if the Fed does lean towards the 125-150 bps of rate cuts that are expected into the end of next year, USD bears could finally get a shot-in-the-arm. Perhaps a bigger question behind that is whether EUR/USD can finally take on strength after the pair has stalled for the past two and a half months. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY - Major Breakdown of bearish StructureDXY has broken down and is currently retesting a breakdown of this major ascending channel on the weekly - monthly time frame. Applying this to equities and Bitcoin - we can anticipate a bull run spanning 3-6 years approximately. Due to the major event of this retest here - I expect that Bitcoin and manipulated markets will see a flash crash of severe magnitude, popping the balloon of the over- leveraged market caps. No black swan is needed to see this take place on Bitcoin. The charts been rising steadily and holding since 2023 - this attracts long leveraged positions and consequently their stop loss orders. Sell orders are cascading in the chart all the way down to 10,000 - and only fill when price crosses. This is the event that will pop the bubble before we see stability in the bull run. I don’t expect the equities markets to drop substantially at all - rather I believe we will continue to rise for 3-6 years coinciding with DXY breakdown.
TVC:DXYShort
by DickDandy
Implausible until it's not? Zoom out $DXY.On the high time frames, the dollar is trading inside a long-term descending channel that dates back decades. The rally into a rising channel has been previously followed by a decline 2002-2008. The most recent rejection from the channel’s upper trend in 2022–2023 suggests that momentum could shift toward the downside, with our next macro target lying near the bottom of the range. We've already broken below our major whole of 1.00 and retested. Recent NFP data shows a cooling labor market. Slowing job growth and downward revisions might point to a break in momentum. A softer labor market reduces the Fed’s ability to maintain higher rates, undermining DXY strength. Beyond employment, consumer spending is showing cracks while business investment is being pressured by higher borrowing costs. If growth becomes stagnant, the immediate appeal of the economy could weaken, reducing foreign capital that support the dollar. Other factors may include tariffs, policy shifts, or deficits. When both macro fundamentals and technical structure align, the case for a dollar decline strengthens. While near-term volatility is always expected around Fed shifts and global risk, the high-time-frame view points to the possibility of a downtrend that could extend into the months or possibly years to come. Eyes peeled for an inverse crypto-winter.
ICEUS:DXYShort
by xbenjaminsx
DXY near or already end of downtrendDXY near or already end of downtrend Technical perspective DXY continues to hold above its 14-year ascending trendline, reinforcing the grand cycle uptrend. Price is consolidating above this support after a bullish divergence, with RSI suggesting reversal potential. However, in the short term, it may continue to move sideways, as indicated by parallel EMAs. A decisive close below the long-term support near 96.00 would shift sentiment sharply bearish. Macro perspective In the short term, USD is stabilizing as traders await August CPI data and the Fed’s policy decision, key drivers for DXY’s next move. Market sentiment could turn more bullish once the Fed’s rate cut is realized, as dovish expectations are fully priced in which could trigger a reversal. US Treasury yields have been declining, reflecting recovered demand for dollar-denominated assets. Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical tensions across multiple regions are reinforcing the USD’s role as the world’s most liquid safe-haven currency. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYLong
by KrisadaYoonaisil