DOLLAR INDEX DOLLAR index at exactly 12;30 gave us a clear sell which gave gold buyers the opportunty to go long from 3475 level to 3530 and extending its gain on daily
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial index that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It is widely used to gauge the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar in global currency markets.
Key Facts About DXY:
The index is calculated as a weighted geometric average of the US dollar’s exchange rates with six major currencies:
Euro (EUR): 57.6% weight (the largest component)
Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6% weight
British Pound (GBP): 11.9% weight
Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1% weight
Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2% weight
Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6% weight
The DXY rises when the US dollar strengthens against these currencies and falls when it weakens.
It was created in 1973 following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system to provide a standardized benchmark for the dollar's value.
The index is maintained and published by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
Why DXY Matters:
The DXY is a key indicator for traders, economists, and investors to assess the dollar’s performance globally.
It affects pricing in global trade and commodities, which are often denominated in US dollars, such as oil and gold.
Movements in the DXY influence monetary policy decisions, financial markets, and global economic dynamics.
In essence, the DXY is the benchmark for measuring the US dollar’s strength against a basket of significant global currencies, providing a comprehensive picture of its international value.
UNITED STATE ECONOMIC DATA REPORT TODAY.
The latest US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is 48.7 for August 2025, slightly below the forecast of 49.0 but above the 48.0 previous A PMI below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, so this points to a modest slowing but less severe than expected.
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Index stands at 63.7, down from 65.1 forecasted and marginally below the 64.8 previous data . This index measures prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials and inputs, and a reading above 50 signals rising input costs. The current elevated level suggests continued inflationary pressures on manufacturing costs, although slightly easing.
Summary:
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 (contracting modestly, slightly better than forecast)
US ISM Manufacturing Prices: 63.7 (input costs rising, but showing some easing)
These indicators suggest the US manufacturing sector is experiencing a mild contraction, with inflationary cost pressures moderating somewhat but still elevated. This mixed data can influence Federal Reserve policymaking, signaling slower growth but persistent price pressures.
The COMEX gold price today, September 2, 2025, is trading near $3,550 to $3,567 per troy ounce. The gold futures recently surged, hitting new record highs above $3,550, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Gold has gained over 1% on the day, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid dollar weakness and inflation concerns.
In summary:
COMEX Gold price around $3,550 - $3,567 per ounce (September 2, 2025)
Recent gains driven by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks
Price at record levels, reflecting strong investor interest
#dollar #dxy #gold #xauusd
DX.F trade ideas
Break of dynamic resistance or rejection?It’s been a long time that this resistance has prevented the Dollar Index from reaching the 100 level, and the price has been making strong efforts to break through and establish itself above this zone. At the end of the week, we have a very important news release for the US dollar, so we need to see how the price reacts to this resistance in the coming days.
Dollar Index - back to 100Dollar Index headed back to the 100 area.
That's our forecast based on structure analysis.
If you didn't manage to get in yet, that is ok. The first move is never the first easiest setup to take. However, if the move will continue to 100, as we expect, it should at least give us another buy opportunity at the break of the trend. Anyways, the first move is gone now as the price has almost already moved the average amount of pips it usually moves on an average daily impulse.
Probably it will go a bit further to confirm the break today and then start consolidating for the next impulse.
Stay tuned for more updates as we'll try to post the next buy setup before it happens.
DXY – Big Week Ahead, Watch These Zones-Dollar still stuck in a range. No need to guess, just watch the heavy levels:
-96.66 = bullish liquidity zone
-99.80 = bearish liquidity zone
-This week is packed with heavy news:
-NFP Friday – jobs report could shake markets hard
-Fed credibility under fire – politics trying to pressure the central bank
-Be careful with dollar pairs — market makers love stop hunts around news.
Best to stay patient → let price show which zone breaks first.
The DXY chart for my EURUSD & EURFUTURES tradeCant see it all but theres a perfectly formed very long leg which is 200 bars long and 1000pips, then a perfectly formed 12hr ascending flag, 3 different trendlines which have even HH HLs on 2 of them, and lastly a 2hr support turned resistance entry at the 12hr flag retest after the breakout.
DXY: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 97.275 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US job numbers this week. Keeping an eye on USD and US indicesWe are keeping a close eye on the US job numbers this week, as those fall into the Fed's spotlight. The expectations are low, so it would be interesting to see if the numbers can get even lower. Let's take a look.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
FX_IDC:EURUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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DXY Forecast: H&S Continuation Pattern?The DXY rebound between July and August has shaped a head and shoulders pattern. The chart is now testing the downside breakout, with the daily RSI turning bearish and slipping below the 50 level. A clean break below the 97.50 support could extend losses toward 97.20 and 96.50, with the full head and shoulders pattern pointing to a potential move down toward the 95.00–94.50 zone.
On the upside, a rebound above the 98.00 level would suggest some bullish recovery. However, a sustained move above 100.20 is needed to confidently shift the outlook toward a longer-term bullish reversal.
Key Events This Week
• ISM PMIs: to clarify US economic activity (Tuesday–Thursday)
• US NFPs and their impact on rate cut expectations and DXY price action (Friday)
• Effects of US trade and legal developments, EU political shifts, and Middle East escalations on risk sentiment
- Razan Hilal, CMT
DXY | 1SPT directional sentiment (SMC)“DXY moving like it just clocked in for a Monday shift 🥱📉… got smacked with that Friday LQC and now stumbling down to 97.100 like it’s chasing a Black Friday discount 🛒. Daily bias still bearish, 4H looking weak, and on the 1H the bulls tryna flex but only after sweeping some liquidity 🐂➡️🚪.
If price taps back into that chef’s POI kitchen 🍳 and fails to hold, the bears finna drag this straight to the basement 📉🐻. Until then, we vibin’ in discount land waiting for confirmation signals. This POI remains the make-or-break zone 🧩 heading into the next sessions.”**
DXY preview for the month of September 2025,dxy on the daily timeframe has created a bos on the 4hours and daily timeframe but this failed to significantly happen on the sellside, only minor bos occured. i expect a draw on liquidity on the sellside and then a oush bak up to the buyside as price is playing and dancing around the 97.500 zone. we stay reactive to what price is doing regardless.
Title: USDX 4H — expectations vs realityThe dollar index once again finds itself in a position where heroic posture doesn’t match reality. Price is capped at 97.85 right at the 0.382 Fibonacci level and every move higher quickly fades like a spark in the rain. If the breakout fails the road towards 97.24 and 96.90 seems far more realistic since the 0.618 retracement and demand zone are located there.
Moving averages are pressing from above, volumes don’t support the bulls and technically the setup favors weakness rather than strength.
Watching USD behavior every dip in gold silver euro and pound becomes a clear swing trading buy opportunity.
Fundamentally the dollar is also under pressure as markets expect a dovish Fed, Treasury yields stay weak and risk appetite drives capital into other assets. In the end the greenback looks more like a tired runner than a sprinter ready to race.
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently exhibiting a bearish trend, driven by a combination of dovish Federal Reserve expectations, weakening economic confidence, and technical breakdowns. Market sentiment has shifted toward potential rate cuts, with investor concerns over the Fed’s independence and rising U.S. fiscal risks adding further pressure.
DXY Bullish Structure Outlook – September 2025Description:
This chart highlights a bullish idea on the Dollar Index (DXY), with structure and liquidity concepts driving the outlook.
Swing Structure:
Price formed a major swing low after a clear BOS (break of structure) to the downside. From there, buyers stepped in, creating a new swing high and pushing into an external BOS, confirming higher-timeframe strength.
Weak Highs & Liquidity Pools:
Multiple weak highs (highlighted in orange) remain unprotected and serve as liquidity targets. These highs are unlikely to hold, suggesting the market will eventually raid them as it seeks upside continuation.
Demand Zones & Failed Close:
Despite temporary sell-offs, the market failed to close below key support (annotated near 97.80–97.00), showing absorption of selling pressure. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) also act as areas of re-accumulation where buyers can step back in.
Schematic Alignment:
The lower schematic illustrates the anticipated accumulation process: a BOS/CHOCH leading into demand mitigation, followed by higher-lows being built and a final expansion phase. This aligns with the live chart, projecting a bullish run once the corrective phase completes.
Outlook:
As long as price respects the current demand zone, DXY is positioned for continuation to the upside, with liquidity objectives above 99.00 and potentially 100+. A deeper retracement toward 96.00–95.00 would still fit the bullish accumulation model and provide an additional long opportunity.
DXYThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial index that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It is widely used to gauge the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar in global currency markets.
DOLLAR index on weekly trendline ,the fed rate decision is expected for forward guidance .
#dxy
Forex Weekly Review: Fundamental analysis. USD to weaken? The week starting Monday 25 August ended where it began, with roughly an 85% likelihood of a September FED rate cut.
There was a lot of external noise in-between. But all the while, the currencies 'movement' remained fairly muted.
Given the reaction to chair Powell's speech the previous Friday, I was quite surprised by the USD strength on Monday.
Throughout the week, we did get a few 'events', namely Mr Trump 'firing' FED member cook, whilst simultaneously stirring the tariff pot. The firing of COOK is an interesting one as it brings into question the FED's independence and is a scenario that could rumble on for a while. We also got 'discouraging' forward guidance from NVIDEA. On another week, all of these narratives would have 'likely' spurred 'sour sentiment'. But any moves were muted, which I put down to many traders being away on 'summer breaks', the fact the VIX hovered around 15 all week (despite the negativity) backs up this theory.
In other news, we did a bit of 'action,' on Monday when political uncertainty in France weakened the EUR. And on Friday 'in line with expectations' US PCE data (eventually) weakened the USD. The theory being inflation is still benign enough for the FED to cut rates in September.
Finally, 'soft' CAD GDP data keeps a BOC September rate cut firmly on the table.
On a personal note, I only really perceived two opportunities all week, the EUR weakness on Monday (which I didn't trade) and the USD opportunity on Friday (GBP USD long). Although that was a tricky one because the dollar did initially strengthen on the headline. We only saw the 'true reaction' once the US market opened.
Throughout the week, I did find myself a little frustrated with the lack of my perceived opportunities over the last few weeks, I'm very intrigued to see if volume picks up once 'institutional traders' return to their desks.
I begin the new week with my 'risk on' bias in tact (particularly following weekend news of a supreme court tariff ruling). But I suspect the narrative surrounding the US jobs market could play a big role this week.
Results:
Trade 1: GBP USD +1.2
Total = +1.2%
US Dollar: A Bit Lower Before Moving Higher? Happy September!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept. 1 - 5th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD is more bearish than bullish. Yes. However, it is still in correction territory. That is to say, it could potentially move higher from current levels. It is in consolidation, ranging here for weeks. Sept may bring the volume to move price out of the summer range. Let's be prepared for it!
React and do not predict.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
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DXY Outlook – Bearish Lean, Choppy SetupDollar had a hard run the last three weeks with heavy bearish candles on the weekly. Price action has been messy, not easy to just get in and ride. My bias is still bearish, but I’m also looking at the bigger picture.
On the monthly chart, key distribution sits under 94.095 and we haven’t reached it yet. Over the last two months price has been filling the bullish order block around 95.971 order block on the dollar index. If the market maker decides to move, it could go fast once the data lines up, whether in the first or second week.
Right now we are sitting in a bearish volume channel lower end. Selling late is not smart because most of the move has already passed. That doesn’t mean there are no trades, but it does mean higher frequency and tighter risk until the next clear setup.
From the economic side the jobs data is weak with only 73K added last month, which keeps pressure on the Fed to cut. The Fed is also seen as politicized, which hurts credibility and weighs on the dollar. Markets are already pricing a September cut and analysts are leaning bearish. At the same time inflation is still sticky near 2.9 percent while jobs are slowing, which leaves the Fed boxed in. Headline PCE is flat, not strong enough to flip hawkish and not weak enough to go fully dovish. That mix can trap the dollar between 97 and 100 until one side breaks.
Best move is to keep watching the data closely before trading dollar markets. Bias stays bearish, but chop risk is high.