NAS100 trade ideas
NAS100 falls slightly but conditions are still bullish!NAS100 climbed in a steep ascending trend and my expectation is for a continuation, with an upside target at around 24,000.
It is still clearly moving inside the channel, as predicted previously in my idea:
At 24.000 is where it can become a decision point, where price might correct again, or it pushes more and that’s when we might see the move start to gain more momentum.
But if price breaks below the trendline with conviction, it would invalidate the bullish scenario, suggesting that the uptrend may pause or could even reverse short-term.
Nasdaq 100 Awaits Breakout After Earnings ReactionUSNAS100 – Overview
On Thursday, the Nasdaq saw only slight moves as investors assessed Nvidia’s quarterly earnings. Price action is consolidating around a key support level.
Technical Outlook
If price holds above 23,560, bullish momentum remains in place, targeting 23,690 → 23,870.
A drop below 23,560 would keep the index range-bound between 23,560 – 23,435.
A confirmed breakdown requires a close below 23,435, which would signal bearish continuation.
Key Levels
Resistance: 23,560 – 23,435.
Support: 23,690 – 23,870.
NASDAQ Index Analysis (US100 / NASDAQ)At today’s market open, the index tested the 23,320 support level, with a higher probability of retesting the 23,180 area before bouncing upward.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below 23,320 and holds beneath it, the index is likely to test 23,180.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
If the price rebounds and breaks above 23,500, holding higher, this could support a continuation towards 23,620 as an initial target, followed by 23,700.
NASDAQ (US100) | Bullish Bias - Continuation in Play🔹 HTF (4H): Structure is bullish and respected. Momentum is strong to the upside, and higher lows remain intact — bullish intent confirmed.
🔹 MTF (30M): Refined structure shows price slashed through the recent internal OB but held — structure remains intact. A deeper sweep into an internal OB refined the order block further.
🔹 LTF (5M): Price switched character from bearish to bullish. Previous week we caught a bullish move, now looking for a second continuation setup toward highs this week.
🔹 Execution Plan: Waiting for price to mitigate the OB zone. Once tapped, we’ll attend bullish longs with precision.
🔹 Mindset Note: Patience is the edge — let smart money reveal itself before taking the next position.
NAS100 H4 | Bearish Reversal off Pullback Resistance"NAS100 is rising towards the sell entry at 23,679.28, which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level ot the take profit.
Stop loss is at 23,939.64, which is a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 23,292.38, which is a pullback support that alignss with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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NASDAQ NAS100 at a Crossroads: Riding Nvidias Surge with CautionThe immediate reaction to Nvidia's stellar earnings has been decidedly bullish, propelling the NASDAQ higher. We saw a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event where the "news" was so powerful it triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) rally with a healthy correction on Friday.
In the next one to two weeks, the near-term bias is bullish, but with extreme caution. The market has received the fundamental "all-clear" it was waiting for from its most important company. However, the index is now technically overextended and sentiment is euphoric, making it vulnerable to a short-term pullback or consolidation. The primary trend, however, remains bullish IMO.
1. The Catalyst: Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia didn't just beat expectations; it shattered them and raised future guidance, validating the entire AI investment thesis.
Revenue & EPS: Significant beats on both the top and bottom lines.
Guidance: Q2 revenue guidance of ~$28B was vastly higher than analyst estimates of ~$26.6B, demonstrating unprecedented demand for its Blackwell and Hopper architecture chips.
Data Center: Revenue of $22.6B, up 427% year-over-year, is the core of the story. This shows that AI infrastructure spending is not slowing; it's accelerating.
Stock Split: The announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split adds a psychological boost for retail investors, improving accessibility and reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Analyst Interpretation: This wasn't just a quarterly report; it was a fundamental confirmation that the AI revolution has tangible, massive earnings power. It alleviated fears that the AI trade was a bubble. For the NASDAQ, which is market-cap weighted and heavily influenced by NVDA, this was rocket fuel.
2. Technical Analysis (One-Day Timeframe Post-Earnings)
Price Action: The NASDAQ gapped up powerfully at the open, breaking cleanly above its previous consolidation range. This was a strong bullish signal.
Volume: The rally was accompanied by massive volume, confirming broad institutional participation. This wasn't a low-volume grind; it was a conviction move.
3. Macro & Fundamental Backdrop
Interest Rates: The market is currently pricing in a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed. However, recent economic data (PMIs, jobless claims) has shown slight signs of softening, which keeps hopes alive for a potential rate cut later in the year. A stable, non-accelerating rate environment is acceptable for tech stocks, especially those like Nvidia with explosive earnings growth that outweighs rate concerns.
Geopolitics: While always a risk (U.S.-China tensions, elections), the market has largely shrugged off these concerns for now, choosing to focus on the stellar corporate fundamentals.
Market Breadth: A key watch-out. The rally has been narrow, led primarily by the "Magnificent 7" (now perhaps the "Fab 1" - Nvidia). For the rally to be sustainable, we need to see broader participation from other sectors and smaller-cap stocks within the NASDAQ.
4. Likely Outcome for the Next 1-2 Weeks: Bullish with a Caveat
Bullish Scenario (60% Probability):
The momentum from Nvidia is likely to carry the NASDAQ higher in the very near term. We could see a continued "melt-up" towards 17,400-17,500 as underinvested funds are forced to chase performance and add equity exposure. Any dip will likely be shallow and bought aggressively, with the 17,000 level holding firm.
Consolidation/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability):
This is the most likely healthy outcome. After such a massive, emotion-driven surge, the market is likely to need a period of digestion. We could see the NASDAQ chop sideways for a week or two to work off the overbought conditions. This would reset the momentum indicators and allow the market to build a new base for the next leg higher. This is not a bearish signal; it is a strengthening signal.
Bearish Reversal Scenario (5% Probability):
A sharp reversal below the 17,000 support level and a fill of the earnings gap (~16,900) would be a significant warning. This would likely require a new, negative macro catalyst (e.g., unexpectedly hot inflation data, a major geopolitical escalation) that forcefully changes the interest rate narrative.
Trading & Investment Implication
For Bulls / Existing Longs: Hold positions. Consider taking partial profits on extreme strength, but avoid selling your entire position. The trend is your friend. Use any pullback to the 17,000 support as a potential buying opportunity.
For New Entrants: Chasing the green spike is high-risk. Be patient. Wait for the inevitable pullback or period of consolidation to establish a position. The risk/reward is poor on the day after a massive gap up.
For Bears: Fighting this tape is exceptionally dangerous. The fundamental news from NVDA is a game-changer for the index. Shorting based solely on overbought conditions is a quick path to losses.
Final Analyst Call: The next week is likely bullish with high volatility, potentially extending gains. However, the following week is highly susceptible to a consolidation or pullback as the initial euphoria settles. The overall trajectory for the next two weeks is cautiously bullish, with the understanding that a 2-4% pullback is a normal and healthy part of a strong uptrend.
The burden of proof is now on the bears to prove they can wrestle control back from a market that just received the best possible news from its most important constituent.
Not financial advice, this is just my opinion.
NASDAQ 100 Near Key Support — Decision Zone AheadUSNAS100 – Overview
After Powell’s speech lifted market sentiment and boosted Fed cut bets, tech remains in focus ahead of Nvidia’s earnings (Aug 27) — a potential key catalyst for NASDAQ’s next big move.
🔹 Technical Outlook
Price action still looks bearish in the short term, with potential continuation down toward 23,295.
If the index stabilizes above 23,295, a bullish reversal can start building.
Otherwise, a break below 23,295 exposes the next supports at 23,165 and 23,045.
On the upside, holding above 23,520 would support renewed bullish momentum toward 23,695.
🔹 Key Levels
Support: 23,295 – 23,165 – 23,045
Resistance: 23,530 – 23,690 – 23,870
✅ Summary:
NASDAQ remains under pressure but is trading close to a decision zone. Stabilization above 23,295 could trigger a bullish rebound, while a breakdown would extend the bearish move. With Powell’s dovish tilt and 90% cut bets already priced in, all eyes now turn to Nvidia earnings to determine if tech can lead the next rally.
NAS100 H4 | Bearish drop offNAS100 has rejected off the sell entry of 23,475.21, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside.
Stop loss is at 23,575.82, which is a pullback resitance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 23,110.94, which is a swing low suport that is slightly below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
NSDQ100 ovrsold rebound supported at 23350US equities advanced, with the S&P 500 +0.41%, closing just shy of record highs, as solid US data offset Fed uncertainty. Conference Board consumer confidence (97.4 vs. 96.5 exp) and core capital goods orders (+1.1% vs. +0.2% exp) signaled resilience, while the Richmond Fed index (-7 vs. -11 exp) improved.
Focus today is Nvidia earnings, which could be pivotal for NASDAQ 100 given its AI leadership and sensitivity to US-China trade tensions. Asian tech strength overnight reflects bullish positioning ahead of results.
Meanwhile, hedge funds are running record shorts in VIX, betting on low volatility—an extreme stance that has historically preceded sharp market moves, something to watch around Nvidia’s release.
In the UK, BoE’s Mann argued for keeping rates high for longer, but impact is limited for US tech trading focus.
For NASDAQ 100: near-record highs, tech sentiment riding on Nvidia, but positioning risk in volatility markets could amplify any surprise.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 23700
Resistance Level 2: 23830
Resistance Level 3: 23920
Support Level 1: 23350
Support Level 2: 23250
Support Level 3: 23100
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Nasdaq Under Pressure as Rally StallsThe Nasdaq is showing signs of weakness after its recent surge toward record highs. Profit-taking, especially at the end of the month, has weighed on tech stocks, while the broader market digests Powell’s dovish signals from Jackson Hole.
Despite optimism around potential rate cuts, valuations in the Nasdaq remain stretched, leaving the index vulnerable to corrections. Rising bond yields, even if off their peaks, are still creating headwinds for high-growth sectors.
Geopolitical concerns and renewed tariff discussions add another layer of uncertainty. At the same time, several heavyweight tech names have already reported earnings, removing a key driver of recent upside momentum.
Technically, the index is testing short-term support. If this level fails, a retracement toward 21,500 or even the 50-day moving average could follow. The daily chart has started to print rejection candles, hinting that buying pressure is fading.
While the long-term trend remains intact, short-term risks are building. Unless the Nasdaq can reclaim its highs quickly, a pullback looks increasingly likely as markets rebalance and investors take a more cautious stance.
NAS100 - Stock Market, in the Work Week!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its short-term descending channel. If this channel is maintained and the specified range is reached, a close sale can be made with a suitable reward.
Economists anticipate that customs tariffs will push consumer prices higher while slowing economic growth in the coming months. Inflation is expected to accelerate, though not to the extreme levels of the 1970s when the term “stagflation” was coined to describe the combination of high inflation and economic stagnation. Unlike a recession—where the economy contracts and prices fall—stagflation features rising prices despite economic weakness. The U.S. economy could be heading toward a 1970s-style stagflationary environment, though analysts believe this time it will be far less severe.
Many experts argue that the U.S. is on the verge of a period of sluggish growth paired with accelerating inflation. The root cause lies in President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which simultaneously raise consumer costs and weigh on the labor market. However, economists expect this inflationary wave to be much milder than the double-digit annual increases that strained household budgets in the 1970s.
On the corporate front, Nvidia released its second-quarter earnings last week. Revenue reached $46.7 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations of $46.23 billion. The company’s data center unit—the main growth driver—generated $41.1 billion, slightly below the $41.29 billion forecast. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.05, while the adjusted gross margin stood at 72.7%.
Looking ahead, Nvidia projected third-quarter revenue of around $54 billion, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%. Its board also approved an additional $60 billion share repurchase program. Regarding China, the company reported zero sales of H20 chips to Chinese clients during Q2 and stated that no shipments are planned for that market in the near future.
In the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that the Chinese market could present a $50 billion opportunity for Nvidia this year. He estimated annual growth in China at nearly 50%, noting that the country is the world’s second-largest computing market and home to half of global AI researchers. Huang stressed that maintaining a presence in China is vital for the company’s long-term future, even amid ongoing political and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
On the monetary policy side, UBS warned that weakening the independence of the Federal Reserve—especially following Trump’s threat to remove Fed board member Lisa Cook—could have significant economic consequences. In its analysis of Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, UBS described it as “classic Powell”: hinting at the possibility of a September rate cut to offset tariff effects but lacking a broader long-term framework for the evolving economy.
UBS emphasized that failure to strongly defend Fed independence could heighten political risks and destabilize markets.The bank warned that if the central bank comes under political influence, potential outcomes include the reemergence of inflationary instability, a one-percentage-point increase in real borrowing costs, and negative effects on fiscal policy, corporate investment, housing affordability, household savings, and speculative activity.
This week begins with one fewer trading day due to the Labor Day holiday, yet the economic calendar remains packed, with the labor market at the center of attention. On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August will be released, followed by the JOLTS job openings report on Wednesday.
Thursday will be particularly important, bringing the August ADP private payrolls report, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM Services Index—all at once. These data points are especially significant given the recent large revisions to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which have renewed focus on the degree of convergence or divergence between ADP and NFP figures.
Historically, ADP and NFP reports have often diverged, leaving traders mispositioned when relying too heavily on ADP data. A recent example occurred in July, when ADP reported a decline of 33,000 jobs, while NFP the following day showed a gain of 147,000—well above expectations of 110,000. However, after NFP revisions, the actual trend proved more consistent with ADP’s numbers.
The most important event of the week will take place on Friday: the release of the August U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Investors will be monitoring it closely, as any signs of labor market weakness could reinforce expectations for a Fed rate cut in mid-September.
Despite growing stagflation risks and heightened market volatility, Bank of America (BofA) suggested that autumn could be an attractive entry point for bullish investors. The bank cautioned that while volatility may exert short-term downward pressure, potential pullbacks could serve as buying opportunities.
The VIX volatility index fell to its lowest level of the year following Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole. Still, concerns about stretched stock valuations, a potential AI-driven bubble, and political risks tied to Fed independence suggest that this calm may not last.
US100 – Elliott Wave Long-Term Outlook (Monthly)Key Points – US100 (Monthly, Elliott Wave)
🌐 Wave (1): Dot-com bubble peak (2000).
📉 Wave (2): Crash to 2002 lows.
🚀 Wave (3): Massive bull run (2009–2025), +4400%.
⚠️ Wave (4) – Expected Correction:
Possible 70–80% retracement.
Targets: 11,500 → 6,500 → 4,770–4,081.
📈 Wave (5) – Future Projection:
Potential long-term expansion toward 250,000+.
🔑 Levels to Watch:
Current support: 23,400.
Major resistance: 35,300.
Long-term target: 261,800
US100: Bullish Continuation & Long Trade
US100
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy US100
Entry Level - 23405
Sl - 23349
Tp - 23518
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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NAS100- OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFETIMETeam, I was patiently wait for the NAS100 hit 23200 - liquidity sweep before entering
NOW lets jump on board at 23220-23200 with STOP LOSS AT 23120
Target 1 at 23315 - take 50% partial and bring stop loss to BE
NEXT target at 23365-95 - take 30%
the rest at 23415-23550
LETS GO AND MAKE MILLION TOGETHER.
MONDAY EYESIt is better to know what we are up against already, I suspect the push has already been exhausted and might take a break through some small buys to the gap that is over the zone and probably continue lower, gathering sellers into what might turn out to be an overall weekly buy, Anyway, we let the market direct us.
Whats your take?