ES (SPX, SPY) Week Ahead Analysis, Nov 3rd - Nov 7thMarket Context
The price is currently positioned just below a key near-term resistance level at 6,900–6,906, following a sharp reversal on Friday from around 6,845. The daily and 4-hour structures indicate an incomplete "weak-high" area above, but the 1-hour momentum has just shifted upward from oversold conditions. As we move into the Asia/London sessions, I anticipate a balance formation within the upper half of the previous session unless we see a decisive 15-minute close above 6,906.
Short — Rejection Fade at 6,900–6,906
Trigger: 15m rejection close back below the band → 5m re-close down with a lower high → 1m first pullback fail.
SL: Above the 15m wick high +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,880 → 6,860 (≥2.0R gate). TP2: 6,805.
Notes: If a retest holds below 6,900, add on a fresh 1m LH.
Short — Rejection Fade at 6,940–6,955
Trigger: Same 15m→5m→1m sequence as above.
SL: Above the band’s 15m wick +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,900 gate; TP2: 6,880–6,860; stretch TP3: 6,805.
Long — Acceptance Continuation above 6,906
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,906 → 5m pullback holds and re-closes up → 1m HL entry.
SL: 5m pullback low −0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,940–6,955; TP2: 6,968–6,985; stretch TP3: 7,020–7,052.
Notes: If 6,906 holds as support on retest, consider scaling on a clean 1m HL.
Long — Quick-Reclaim Bounce at 6,852–6,860
Trigger: Sweep/flush below the band and instant reclaim (1–3m), confirmed by a 5m re-close up → 1m HL entry.
SL: Below the sweep low −0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,900 gate; TP2: 6,940–6,955.
Long — Quick-Reclaim Bounce at 6,793–6,805
Trigger: Same reclaim logic; prefer fast tag → quick pop.
SL: Below the 5m reclaim low −0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,860; TP2: 6,900; optional TP3: 6,940.
Long — Exhaustion Flush Bounce at 6,748–6,756 (stretch 6,713–6,725)
Trigger: Fast liquidation into the band + momentum divergence → 5m reversal close → 1m HL entry.
SL: Below the exhaustion low −0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,793–6,805; TP2: 6,860; trail only after TP2.
Short — Continuation Below 6,852
Trigger: 15m body-through below 6,852 that holds on retest → 5m LH → 1m pullback entry.
SL: Above the 15m break wick +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,805; TP2: 6,756; stretch TP3: 6,725.
KILL-ZONES & EXECUTION NOTES
Primary execution windows: NY AM 09:30–11:00 and NY PM 13:30–16:00. London 02:00–05:00 optional, reduced size. Asia optional, smallest size.
Stops & viability: Anchor hard SLs to the relevant 15m wick; only take plays where TP1 ≥ 2.0R. Max two attempts per level per session. At TP1: close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trailing before TP2.
WEEK AHEAD GAME PLAN
If Monday holds above 6,860 and forms a higher low, the outlook is modestly bullish, aiming for a move toward 6,940–6,955 early to mid-week. A decisive daily close above 6,955 would suggest a rally into the 6,968–6,985 range, with the potential to extend further to 7,020–7,052 later in the week.
Conversely, if the price falls back below 6,852, the scenario shifts to a mean-reversion week, targeting 6,805 and then 6,756, with 6,713 as a potential stretch target.
