Elliott Wave View on GDX Favors Pullback Before RallShort Term Elliott Wave View in GDX suggests the zigzag correction should find support towards extreme areas before resume higher to finish the impulse sequence from 5-August, 2024 low. It is showing higher high sequence in daily from September-2022 low and expect short term rally to continue against August-2024 low. Since 5-August, 2024 low, it placed 1 at 39.97 high and 2 correction at 36.22 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Above 36.22 low, it placed ((i)) of 3 at 36.89 high, ((ii)) at 36.44 low, ((iii)) as extended wave at 40.98 high, ((iv)) at 39.02 low and finally ((v)) as 3 at 42.12 high.
Below 3 high, it favors zigzag correction in 4 against 6-September, 2024 low before resume higher. Below 42.12 high, it favors pullback in ((c)) of 4 started from 40.79 high. It placed ((a)) of 4 at 39.35 low as 5 swing sequence, while placed ((b)) at 40.79 high. Within ((a)), it placed (i) at 41.22 low, (ii) at 41.95 high, (iii) at 39.96 low, (iv) at 40.75 high and (v) as ((a)) at 39.35 high. Below ((b)) high, it placed (i) at 39.12 low and (ii) at 40.19 high. Currently, it favors lower in (iii) and expect short term weakness towards 38.03 or lower levels to finish zigzag before resume higher in 5 as possible diagonal from August-2024 low.
GDX trade ideas
Opening (IRA): GDX Oct 18th 32/37/37/42 Iron Fly... for a 2.66 credit.
Comments: High IVR/High IV (59.8/35.2). Some more "little stuff" in that 45 DTE wheelhouse while I wait for other things to come in or require management.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 2.66
Buying Power Effect: 2.34
ROC at Max: 113.68%
25% Max: .67
ROC at 25% Max: 25.19%
Elliott Wave View on Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Expects Continuation Short term Elliott Wave view on Gold Miners ETF (GDX) suggests that decline to 33.86 ended wave (4). The ETF has turned higher in wave (5). Internal subdivision of wave (5) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 36.25 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 34.54. The Index extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 38.08 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 36.56. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 39.97 which completed wave 1 in higher degree.
The ETF then pullback in wave 2 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 38.54 and wave ((b)) rally ended at 39.77.Down from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 38.04 and wave (ii) ended at 39.15. Wave (iii) lower ended at 36.7 and wave (iv) ended at 37.83. Wave (v) lower ended at 36.22 which completed wave ((c)) of 2 in higher degree. The ETF has turned higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 37.48 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 36.49. Near term, as far as pivot at 33.86 low stays intact, expect pullback to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis Looking for GDX to Extend HigherRally from 9.26.2022 low in AMEX:GDX is currently in progress as a 5 waves diagonal. Up from 9.26.2022 low, wave (1) ended at 36.26 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 25.62. The ETF then extended higher in wave (3) towards 39.4 and pullback in wave (4) ended at 33.85 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave (4) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave W ended at 35.9 and wave X ended at 38.22. Wave Y lower ended at 33.85 which completed wave (4) in higher degree.
The ETF then turns higher again in wave (5). Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 36.25 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 34.54. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 38.08 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 36.56. Expect wave ((v)) to complete soon which should also end wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 8.5.2024 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the ETF resumes higher again. Near term, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing against 33.85 for further upside.
Gold will underperform over the next 30+ daysDon't think there's good value in precious metals, right now. It'll likely under perform against oil and indices over the next 30 days. In all likelihood, investor are rotating out of the gold position and will continue to do so in the coming weeks. A better choice would be oil than precious metals.
Elliott Wave Expects Gold Miners ETF (GDX) to Continue RallyShort Term Elliott Wave View in Gold Miners Junior (GDX) shows that cycle from 10.4.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.4.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 32.35 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 25.67. Wave 3 higher ended at 37.47 and dips in wave 4 ended at 32.83 like the 1 hour chart below shows. The ETF has turned higher in wave 5 with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree.
Up from wave 4, wave i ended at 33.35 and wave ii ended at 32.98. Wave iii higher ended at 34.79 and pullback in wave iv ended at 34.35. Final wave v higher ended at 34.83 which completed wave (i) in higher degree. Wave (ii) dips unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (ii), wave a ended at 33.8 and wave b ended at 34.58. Wave c lower ended at 33.28 which completed wave (ii). The ETF has rallied higher again. Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 34.63 and wave ii ended at 33.65.
Wave iii higher ended at 36.53, and dips in wave iv ended at 35.51. Expect wave v to end soon which should complete wave (iii). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave (iv) to correct cycle from 6.26.2024 low before it resumes higher again. Near term, as far as pivot at 32.83 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
Stay long GDX gold minersSimilar to the patterns playing out elsewhere, the "inflation trade" is still supportive of hard assets (and miners). GDX has had a nice pullback into 38% and move ave support. I've been long for quite a long time but those looking to get some exposure can use this as an opportunity.
Long 34, Stop 32, Trgt 40
Return/Risk = 3:1
GDX break out Have been tracking Gold and the Gold miners ETF GDX... It has been a while and it appears that Gold and GDX are at least in sync again.
GDX appears to have closed the week above the long term range and just broke out, if not about to...
MACD and VolDiv have not yet crossed over but indications show. The TD Setup is still showing primary bullish and a new Setup is forming, with a target to close above 36.26 within the next two months.
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis on GDX: Further Rally ExpectedShort Term Elliott Wave View on GDX suggests that rally to 35.74 ended wave 3 on April 12, 2024. From there, the ETF pullback as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 33.44 and wave (b) ended at 34.35. Wave (c) lower ended at 32.43 which completed wave ((w)). The ETF then rallied in wave ((x)) as as a double three structure in lesser degree. Up from wave ((w)), wave (w) ended at 33.95 and wave (x) ended at 33.11. Wave (y) higher ended at 34.31 which completed wave ((x)).
The ETF then extended lower in wave ((y)) as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((x)), wave (a) ended at 32.78 and wave (b) ended at 33.60. Wave (c) lower ended at 31.90 which completed wave ((y)) of 4. The ETF has turned higher in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave i ended at 33.3 and wave ii ended at 32.79. Wave iii higher ended at 34.95 and pullback in wave iv ended at 34.07. Expect the ETF to extend higher in wave v to complete wave (i). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 4.23.2024 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 31.9 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
Opening (IRA): GDX February 16th 29 Monied Covered Call... for a 28.24 debit.
Comments: GDX (IVR/IV 40.8/ 32.9) is at the top of my IV screener for ETF's (along with GDXJ, which has higher IV, but is less liquid).
Buying stock and selling the -71 delta call against, resulting in a max profit potential of .76 ($76)/contract; 2.69% ROC at max; 1.35% at 50% max. That .76 isn't massively compelling, but the ROC is "decent" for what I'm trying to do in the IRA on a month-month basis.
Opening (IRA): GDX August 16th 22 Monied Covered Call... for a 21.01 debit.
Comments: There isn't much that is weak in this market ... . Adding a rung to my GDX position out in August at a strike lower than what I currently have on. (See Posts Below).
.99 max on BPE of 21.01; 4.7% ROC at max; 2.4% at 50% max.
Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Extending Higher in Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave view in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) suggests rally from 2.29.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse structure. Up from 2.29.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 30.48 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 28.91. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 29.71 and wave (b) ended at 30.08. Wave (c) lower ended at 28.91 which completed wave ((ii)). The ETF then resumed higher in wave ((iii)) with subdivision as an impulsive structure.
Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 30.9 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 29.53. The Index extends higher in wave (iii). Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 30.39 and pullback in wave ii ended at 29.79. Wave iii higher ended at 32.69 and wave iv pullback ended at 31.71. Expect wave v of (iii) to end soon, then it should pullback in wave (iv) before the ETF extends higher again in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)). Near term, as far as pivot at 29.53 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.