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Strategy Inc - 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred StockStrategy Inc - 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred StockStrategy Inc - 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock

Strategy Inc - 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock

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MSTR: Trend ContinuesSince our last update, MSTR extended its sell-off. We still expect the low of this wave to form above the support level at $153.49. Once wave 2 is complete, we anticipate a strong wave 3 rally pushing above resistance at $674.18. Our alternative scenario assumes a different wave count: in this case, price may currently be developing the magenta wave alt. to the upside (probability: 30%). This count would be confirmed by a direct move above resistance at $430.50.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by MarketIntel
Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) - Financial ReportDate: October 16, 2025 Current Market Context: As of October 16, 2025, Bitcoin trades at approximately $111,469 USD, reflecting a volatile yet upward trajectory influenced by institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors. Strategy Inc., formerly MicroStrategy, holds 640,031 BTC, valued at $71.3 billion USD as of today. The company's market capitalization stands at $84.15 billion USD, representing an 18% premium over its Bitcoin reserve value. This premium accounts for operational assets, including fixed costs, employee salaries, and intellectual property, while underscoring the market's perception of MSTR as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. Notably, the company's substantial BTC holdings enable potential market influence through strategies involving futures and options, allowing for amplified exposure to cryptocurrency volatility. 1. Company Overview Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is a leading provider of AI-powered enterprise analytics software and services, operating in the business intelligence (BI) and software sector. Founded in 1989 by Michael J. Saylor and Sanju Bansal in Wilmington, Delaware, the company initially focused on data mining and BI tools inspired by systems-dynamics theory from their MIT studies. It secured its first major client, McDonald's, with a $10 million contract in 1992, driving 100% annual revenue growth from 1990 to 1996. By 1994, the firm relocated to Tysons Corner, Virginia, expanding to 50 employees. The company went public in 1998 and evolved into a pioneer in BI platforms, offering products like MicroStrategy ONE for non-technical insights and HyperIntelligence for contextual overlays. In August 2020, under Saylor's leadership, Strategy adopted Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset, purchasing 21,454 BTC for $250 million—a move that transformed it into the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder. This pivot positioned MSTR as a "Bitcoin spot leveraged ETF" proxy, blending software revenue with cryptocurrency exposure. In February 2025, it rebranded from MicroStrategy to Strategy Inc. to emphasize its dual focus on analytics and Bitcoin innovation. Today, it serves industries including finance, healthcare, retail, and government, with a global presence across North America, EMEA, LATAM, and APAC. Strategic Objectives and Corporate Vision Strategy's vision is to empower organizations with AI-driven analytics while leveraging Bitcoin as a superior store of value against inflation and currency devaluation. Core objectives include: - Expanding market share in BI through innovative technologies like cloud-native platforms and partnerships. - Executing the "21/21 Plan": Raising $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in fixed-income instruments over three years to acquire more BTC, enhancing treasury value. - Balancing software growth (e.g., via Strategy Mosaic for data governance) with Bitcoin strategy for long-term value creation. Saylor, the Executive Chairman, focuses on Bitcoin acquisitions, while CEO Phong Le oversees operations. The company holds 340 patents, emphasizing innovation in BI and blockchain applications. 2. Financial Analysis Consolidated Balance Sheet: Last Three Years Strategy's financials reflect modest BI revenue growth overshadowed by Bitcoin impairments and gains. Data is in USD millions, sourced from annual reports. | Metric | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |--------------------|---------|---------|---------| | Total Revenue | 463.0 | 496.0 | 496.0 | | Cost of Revenue | 138.9 | 148.0 | 152.0 | | Gross Profit | 324.1 | 348.0 | 344.0 | | Operating Expenses | -6,660 | 450.0 | 500.0 | | Operating Income | 6,660 | -102.0 | -156.0 | | Net Income | 4,790 | -670.8 | -1,470 | | Gross Margin (%) | 70.1 | 70.2 | 69.4 | | Net Margin (%) | 1,036.6 | -135.3 | -296.4 | Volatility stems from Bitcoin fair-value adjustments: 2024 gains drove net income surge, while prior years saw impairments. Revenue declined 6.6% YoY in 2024 due to subscription shifts, but gross margins remain robust at ~70%. Cash Flow Analysis Cash flows highlight Bitcoin-driven investing outflows, offset by financing inflows. Data in USD millions. | Category | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |-------------------------|-------- |---------|---------| | Operating Cash Flow | 50.1 | 65.0 | 45.0 | | Investing Cash Flow | -35,630 | -2,100 | -500.0 | | Financing Cash Flow | 35,500 | 2,050 | 450.0 | | Net Change in Cash | -80 | 15.0 | -5.0 | | Free Cash Flow Growth (%) | -1,069 | N/A | N/A | Operating cash flow remains positive but modest (~$50M in 2024), supporting software operations. Investing activities reflect massive BTC purchases ($35.6B in 2024 via debt/equity raises), while financing provides liquidity through convertible notes and ATM offerings. This structure amplifies BTC exposure but increases dilution risk. Key Performance Indicators Financial ratios reveal efficiency in equity utilization but asset strain from BTC leverage. | Ratio | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | Interpretation | |--------------- --|----------|----------|--------|----------------| | ROE (%) | 18.01 | -25.0 | -40.0 | Strong recovery via BTC gains; measures profitability per equity dollar. | | ROA (%) | 12.75 | -5.0 | -8.0 | Improved asset efficiency; net income/total assets. | | ROI (%) | 12.75 | -4.5 | -7.5 | Aligns with ROA; return on invested capital in BTC/software. | | Debt/Equity | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.30 | Low leverage; supports BTC strategy without excessive risk. | | Interest Coverage | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | Adequate coverage post-2024 gains; EBIT/interest expense. | ROE surged in 2024 due to unrealized BTC appreciation, calculated as Net Income / Average Shareholders' Equity. ROA = Net Income / Total Assets, highlighting BTC's role in boosting returns despite flat software assets. Debt Analysis Total debt stands at $8.21 billion (2024), primarily convertible notes for BTC buys. Debt/Equity ratio of 0.16 indicates conservative leverage, with current ratio at 0.68 signaling short-term liquidity pressure from BTC focus. Interest coverage improved to 5.2x in 2024, mitigating default risk amid rising rates. Strategies include ATM equity sales to repay debt. 3. Market Analysis Stock Performance: Last 12 Months MSTR delivered 43.55% returns over the past 12 months (October 2024–October 2025), far outpacing benchmarks. 52-week high: $473.83 (November 2024); low: $112.00 (October 2024). Current price: ~$296.76, with YTD loss of -1.12%. Volatility and Benchmark Comparison Annualized volatility: 114.6% (MSTR) vs. 20.5% (NASDAQ) and 15.2% (S&P 500), driven by BTC correlation (beta ~3.0 to BTC). MSTR outperformed S&P 500 (+71% vs. +16%) and NASDAQ over 12 months, but with 7x the volatility. Sharpe ratio: 1.82 (MSTR) vs. 0.92 (S&P 500), indicating superior risk-adjusted returns. Competitors and Market Position In Business Intelligence software, Strategy holds ~1.19% market share, trailing Microsoft Power BI (19.85%) and Tableau (16.11%). Key competitors: Tableau (Salesforce), Qlik, IBM Cognos, Oracle BI, and Power BI. Strengths include scalability and mobile BI; weaknesses are higher complexity vs. user-friendly rivals. As a BTC holder, it leads corporates (e.g., vs. Tesla's ~11,000 BTC), positioning MSTR as a unique hybrid: BI challenger with crypto dominance (~3% of BTC supply). 4. Future Outlook Growth Forecasts: 2025–2028 Analysts project 5–10% annual BI revenue growth to $550M by 2028, driven by AI integrations. BTC holdings could reach 1M+ via 21/21 Plan, implying 20–50% stock upside if BTC hits $150K (base case: $400–$600/share by 2028). EPS growth: 1557% in 2025, stabilizing at 15% CAGR. Overall revenue: $500M–$600M by 2028, with net income tied to BTC (projected $10B+ if holdings appreciate 30% annually). Expansion Plans, Acquisitions, and Initiatives - 21/21 Plan: $42B raise for BTC buys; recent $2B preferred stock offering targets Q1 2026. - Acquisitions: Potential in blockchain/BI (e.g., mobile analytics firms); no major 2025 deals announced. - Initiatives: Launch of Bitcoin-linked securities; expansion into APAC BI markets; AI enhancements like Strategy One for predictive analytics. Potential Risks and Mitigation - Risks: BTC volatility (80% drawdown potential); dilution from equity raises; regulatory scrutiny on crypto holdings; BI competition eroding 1–2% share annually. - Mitigation: Diversified revenue (BTC as 90% value driver but software as stabilizer); debt refinancing via ATM sales; hedging via futures/options with its BTC hoard for market influence. Scenario analysis: Base (BTC +20%/yr) yields 25% IRR; bear (BTC -30%) limits downside to 15% via operational cash. 5. Conclusion Overall Assessment and Investment Potential Strategy Inc. exemplifies a high-conviction, transformative play: a BI stalwart amplified by Bitcoin's asymmetric upside. With $84.15B market cap trading at an 18% premium to its $71.3B BTC holdings—factoring in ~$500M annual fixed costs, salaries for 1,530 employees, and BI IP—the firm offers leveraged exposure without direct crypto custody risks. Historical 1,620% returns since 2020 validate Saylor's vision, outperforming S&P 500 by 22x. Potential is strong for 2025–2028 if BTC adoption accelerates, with ROE/ROA signaling efficient capital deployment. Investor Recommendations Buy/Hold for Growth-Oriented Portfolios: Target $400–$500 by end-2026 (20–50% upside) on BTC momentum; allocate 5–10% for high-risk tolerance. Strengths: BTC treasury (market influence via derivatives); resilient 70% margins; innovation (340 patents). Weaknesses: Revenue stagnation (-3.2% CAGR); volatility (114% vs. 20% benchmarks); dilution risk (74% YTD BTC yield via shares). Conservative investors: Monitor Q4 2025 earnings (Oct 30) for BTC yield updates; diversify with S&P 500 ETFs. This is not financial advice—consult professionals.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by dPEngineering
Difference Between Forward and Futures Forex Markets1. Definition and Basic Concept Forward Market: A forward forex contract is a private agreement between two parties to buy or sell a specific amount of a currency at a predetermined rate on a future date. It is a customizable contract where the terms—such as amount, delivery date, and exchange rate—are negotiated directly between the buyer and the seller. Futures Market: A futures forex contract, on the other hand, is a standardized agreement traded on an organized exchange (such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange - CME) to buy or sell a currency at a set price on a specific future date. Futures contracts are governed by exchange rules and are not negotiable between individuals. Example: If an Indian importer knows they must pay $1 million in three months, they can lock in today’s rate with a forward contract negotiated with their bank. Alternatively, they could use a futures contract on the exchange to hedge the same exposure, but under standardized terms. 2. Trading Venue and Regulation Forward Market: The forward forex market is Over-the-Counter (OTC), meaning trades occur directly between parties—usually through banks, brokers, or large financial institutions. It is unregulated compared to futures markets, giving flexibility but also introducing counterparty risk. Futures Market: Futures contracts are traded on regulated exchanges, ensuring transparency, standardized contract sizes, and proper oversight by authorities such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the U.S. This makes the futures market more secure and trustworthy for investors. Key Difference: OTC forward markets offer privacy and customization, whereas futures markets emphasize standardization, regulation, and transparency. 3. Contract Customization Forward Market: Forward contracts are fully customizable. Parties can decide the exact amount, currency pair, settlement date, and method of delivery. This flexibility suits businesses and institutions with specific hedging needs. Futures Market: Futures contracts are standardized in terms of contract size, maturity dates (e.g., March, June, September, December), and settlement procedures. Traders must accept these fixed terms, which can limit flexibility but make trading easier for speculative purposes. Example: A company wanting to hedge €2.5 million in three months can easily set that amount in a forward contract. In contrast, a futures contract might have a fixed lot size (say, €125,000 per contract), so the company would need to trade multiple contracts to approximate the desired amount. 4. Settlement and Delivery Forward Market: Settlement occurs on the agreed future date, and most forward contracts end in actual delivery of the currencies. However, some may be settled in cash based on the difference between the agreed rate and the spot rate at maturity. Futures Market: Most futures contracts are cash-settled before expiry, as traders often close their positions before the delivery date. Only a small percentage result in physical delivery of the currencies. Key Point: Forwards typically end with physical delivery, while futures are mainly used for speculation and hedging without actual currency exchange. 5. Counterparty Risk Forward Market: Since forwards are private agreements, there is a high counterparty risk—the possibility that one party may default on the contract. There is no intermediary guaranteeing the trade. Futures Market: Futures contracts eliminate counterparty risk because the exchange clearing house acts as the intermediary, guaranteeing that both sides meet their obligations. Traders must maintain margin accounts to manage default risk. Result: Futures offer greater security due to exchange-backed settlement mechanisms. 6. Mark-to-Market and Margin Requirements Forward Market: Forward contracts are not marked to market, meaning profits or losses are realized only at the contract’s maturity. No margin or daily settlement is required. Futures Market: Futures contracts are marked to market daily, meaning gains and losses are settled every trading day. Traders must maintain margin accounts (initial and maintenance margins) to cover potential losses, ensuring market integrity. Example: If the exchange rate moves unfavorably in a futures position, the trader must deposit additional funds to maintain their margin. In forwards, the loss or gain is realized only at the end. 7. Liquidity and Market Participants Forward Market: Liquidity in forwards depends on the specific currency pair and the parties involved. It’s dominated by banks, multinational corporations, and institutional investors seeking to hedge specific exposures. Futures Market: The futures market is highly liquid due to standardized contracts and participation from a wide range of players—hedgers, speculators, and institutional traders. Continuous trading ensures tight spreads and efficient pricing. In summary: Forwards serve mainly for hedging; futures attract both hedgers and speculators due to liquidity and transparency. 8. Purpose and Usage Forward Market: Primarily used for hedging long-term exposures. Forwards protect against adverse currency movements for future transactions like exports, imports, or loans in foreign currencies. Futures Market: Used for both hedging and speculation. Hedge funds and traders use futures to profit from short-term price movements in currency pairs or to manage portfolio risk efficiently. Example: A corporate treasurer uses forwards to hedge a future payment, while a speculator might use futures to bet on the dollar strengthening against the euro. 9. Pricing and Cost Structure Forward Market: Forward prices are determined by the interest rate differential between the two currencies and the current spot rate. There are no exchange fees, but the pricing may include a bank’s spread or commission. Futures Market: Futures prices are also influenced by interest rate differentials but may deviate slightly from forward rates due to daily margin settlements and market expectations. Traders also pay exchange and brokerage fees. Key Insight: Forward pricing is customized and negotiated privately, while futures pricing is transparent and visible on exchanges. 10. Transparency and Accessibility Forward Market: Forward markets are less transparent, as prices and deals are not publicly available. Only large players like banks and corporations typically participate due to the high transaction size. Futures Market: Futures markets are highly transparent. Prices, trading volumes, and open interest data are publicly available in real time, enabling fair competition and analysis for all traders. Final Comparison: Transparency in futures ensures fairness and easier access for retail and institutional investors, while forwards remain largely institutional and relationship-based. Conclusion While both forward and futures forex markets allow participants to hedge or speculate on future currency movements, their structure, purpose, and participants differ greatly. Forwards offer customization and flexibility but come with higher counterparty risk and limited liquidity. Futures provide standardization, security, and transparency, making them ideal for speculative trading and risk management in a regulated environment. In summary: Aspect Forward Market Futures Market Trading Venue OTC (Private) Exchange-Traded Customization Fully customizable Standardized Regulation Unregulated Regulated Settlement On maturity Daily (mark-to-market) Counterparty Risk High Minimal Participants Corporates, Banks Traders, Investors Transparency Low High Liquidity Moderate High Margin Requirement None Required Usage Long-term hedging Hedging & speculation
NASDAQ:MSTREducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
MSTR LongThe broader market structure on MSTR (15-minute) remains bearish, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent Break of Structure (BOS) occurred around $309.34, confirming continuation to the downside after price failed to sustain above prior support. No Change of Character (CHoCH) has yet formed, meaning the downtrend remains intact, though short-term corrective movement is underway as price consolidates above a minor demand zone. The upper supply zones between $323–$330 remain strong, as each previously caused sharp declines with little to no bullish defense—evidence of significant selling pressure. Sellers were clearly aggressive here, leaving inefficiency and unmitigated zones overhead that could attract price for liquidity before a continuation lower. The nearby demand zone between $306–$308 shows initial signs of buyer interest; price rebounded from this area with a brief impulse, suggesting temporary absorption, but it’s still relatively weak given the speed and strength of prior declines. Within the marked region, price is currently pulling back toward the $308 demand, and the reaction there will determine the next leg. If buyers defend that zone again, we can expect a short-term bounce targeting $320–$323, where the next layer of supply awaits. However, failure to hold above $306 would invalidate this corrective move and re-open downside targets toward $295–$292, aligning with the lower demand area. From a footprint analysis perspective, recent candles likely show a mild uptick in positive delta as buyers attempt to build a base, but the overall delta profile still favors sellers—suggesting buy absorption rather than true initiative buying. Expect heavier negative delta if price re-enters supply, confirming that sellers remain in control. Trade bias: short-term bullish correction within a broader bearish trend. Expect a reaction higher from $308–$306 into $320–$323, followed by potential continuation down. Invalidation: a clean break below $306, which would negate any bullish retracement. Momentum: mildly favors buyers in the near term but remains dominated by sellers on the higher structure.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by ProSignalai
1
Aggressive Bitcoin Strategy Could Propel GainsCurrent Price: $304.79 Direction: LONG Targets: - T1 = $320.00 - T2 = $340.00 Stop Levels: - S1 = $295.00 - S2 = $280.00 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle highlights consensus opportunities in MicroStrategy, particularly due to its hybrid positioning as a software company and a proxy for Bitcoin exposure, which continues to be a driving factor in its stock price movements. **Key Insights:** MicroStrategy’s aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin has made it a unique blend of tech stock and crypto play. The company’s recent disclosures indicate it holds over 160,000 BTC as of October 2025, with purchases funded through debt instruments and internal cash flow. Analysts highlight that MicroStrategy is positioned to benefit from the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in Q2 2026, which historically precedes significant BTC price appreciation. As institutional interest resurges in cryptocurrencies, the company’s strategic positioning could pay off in spades. However, traders remain cautious of any adverse regulatory developments or major crypto sell-offs, as these have historically been double-edged risks for MicroStrategy’s stock. On technical grounds, the breakout above the $300 resistance shows promising bullish momentum, suggesting further upside if the stock sustains above this threshold. **Recent Performance:** MicroStrategy stock has demonstrated resilience, rising 12% over the last 30 days as Bitcoin reclaimed the critical $30,000 mark. The firm’s aggressive BTC accumulation strategy has led to renewed investor confidence amidst broader optimism in the crypto space. The stock corrected slightly during September but bounced from the $280 support zone, forming a bullish engulfing pattern that indicates substantial buying interest in current price levels. **Expert Analysis:** Technical analysts identify MicroStrategy’s recent move above the 200-day moving average as a crucial turning point for sustained upward momentum. The RSI currently sits at 63, suggesting moderate bullish strength without entering overbought territory. Key resistance levels at $320 and $340 present initial profit-taking zones, while the $280 support continues to act as a floor for downside protection. Fundamentally, analysts project that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings could appreciate significantly in value if BTC resumes its historical trend post-halving. The firm’s operational software business also provides baseline revenue stability, reducing downside risk relative to pure cryptocurrency plays. However, traders should remain aware of leverage risks and potential BTC volatility, which could disrupt momentum in the short to medium term. **News Impact:** Recent headlines around potential Bitcoin ETF approvals globally are spurring renewed buying interest across the crypto space, including companies with significant BTC holdings, such as MicroStrategy. CEO Michael Saylor’s unwavering stance on Bitcoin has further enhanced the firm’s reputation among crypto-focused investors. Additionally, MicroStrategy’s strategic financing operations, minimizing shareholder dilution, are being viewed favorably by institutional investors anticipating double-digit returns into 2026. **Trading Recommendation:** MicroStrategy’s bullish momentum, fueled by both technical strength and macro tailwinds in cryptocurrencies, makes it an attractive long proposition at current levels. Holding above $300 while targeting upside to $320 and $340 allows traders to capitalize on the stock’s breakout potential. Aggressive investors may consider positioning for further gains as Bitcoin adoption accelerates globally. With strong support at $280 limiting risk, this trade offers a favorable risk-reward setup in the medium term. Do you want to save hours every week? Register for the free weekly update in your language!
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
$MSTR Swing Trade Setup: Layered Short Entries on Breakout📉 MSTR "STRATEGY INC" STOCK – Bearish Thief Plan (Swing/Scalp Setup) ⚡ Trade Setup (Bearish Pending Order Plan) Asset: NASDAQ:MSTR (MicroStrategy Inc.) Plan: Bearish (waiting for support breakout confirmation). Entry Zone: Pending breakout entry @ 320.00 ⚡ Layered “Thief” Strategy (scaling entries): Sell Limit Layers: 340.00 / 330.00 / 320.00 You may add or adjust layers based on your own risk tolerance. 🔔 Set TradingView alerts at breakout levels to track price action. Stop Loss (Thief Style): Protective SL @ 360.00 (after breakout confirmation). Adjust per your strategy & risk management. Target Zone (Exit): Police barricade support @ 290.00 Note: Take profit is discretionary — escape with profits at your own chosen level 🚪💰. 🔑 Why This Plan? (Thief Strategy Context) The Thief Plan = using multiple layered limit entries after a breakout for better risk/reward. Scaling entries gives flexibility while reducing FOMO and chasing. Exit early at support barricades or oversold traps. 📊 MicroStrategy (MSTR) Market Data Report As of September 7, 2025 1. Retail & Institutional Sentiment 🤝 Retail: Mixed / cautious (crypto exposure volatility). Institutional: Neutral → slightly bearish (Bitcoin correlation + regulatory risk). Estimated Sentiment: 55% Neutral / 30% Bearish / 15% Bullish. 2. Fear & Greed Index 😨😋 Current level: Neutral ~50/100 Suggests balanced emotions → no extreme greed or fear. 3. Fundamental & Macro Scores 📈📉 Fundamental ~60/100: MSTR tied to Bitcoin trends, highly volatile. Macro ~55/100: Pressures include crypto regulation, tech volatility, interest rates. Bitcoin remains the key driver. 4. Market Outlook 🐂🐻 Bull Case: BTC rally → MSTR boost, institutional adoption helps. Bear Case: Regulatory clampdowns, BTC volatility → downside pressure. Overall: Neutral → Slightly Bearish (short-term caution). 🚀 Key Takeaways NASDAQ:MSTR moves in sync with Bitcoin → monitor BTC charts closely. Sentiment is not strongly bullish → short setups have edge here. Thief layering strategy aligns with volatility. Always respect SL & manage risk 🔐. 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch BITSTAMP:BTCUSD NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase) NASDAQ:RIOT (Riot Platforms) NASDAQ:MARA (Marathon Digital) SP:SPX / NASDAQ:NDX (macro impact on tech/crypto plays) ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #MSTR #MicroStrategy #Stocks #SwingTrade #Scalping #BearishSetup #CryptoStocks #LayeredStrategy #ThiefPlan #BitcoinCorrelation #TradingViewIdea
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by The-Thief
MSTR US🌎MicroStrategy pioneered the use of Bitcoin as a corporate reserve asset. This strategy transformed MSTR from a traditional technology company into a unique hybrid: a provider of analytics solutions and a publicly traded instrument for indirect exposure to Bitcoin. As of September 2025, the company's reserves totaled 636,505 BTC, equivalent to approximately $70 billion and representing approximately 2.6% of the total Bitcoin supply globally. This makes it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. To accumulate this amount, the company employed an aggressive financial strategy, including issuing convertible debt and, more recently, issuing preferred shares. mNAV Premium. One of the most important metrics for MSTR's valuation is mNAV (Multiple on Net Asset Value). It is calculated as the ratio of a company's market capitalization to the dollar value of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. A high mNAV means the market values the company significantly above the value of its Bitcoin reserves, allowing it to attract cheap capital for further acquisitions. Operating revenue remains relatively stable at approximately $463 million. Gross margin over the past 12 months has remained at approximately 70%. Net income is highly volatile due to adjustments for Bitcoin price fluctuations. In 2023, the company reported a net income of $429.1 million, but for 2024, it recorded a loss of -$1.17 billion. OCF -$53.7 million Debt 8.16 B cash 0.05 B Debt can be repaid by selling a portion of the Bitcoin held on the balance sheet.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by A3MInvestments
6
MSTR Headed to Balance Sheet Insolvency?If my wave forecast is correct and BTC trades down toward $23K (ie. 80% log retracement level of the 2023-2025 bull run), MicroStrategy (Strategy) becomes balance sheet insolvent: liabilities (convertible debt + preferreds like STRK/STRF/STRD/STRC) would exceed assets. That doesn’t mean automatic bankruptcy. Their convertibles only cost ~$35M/yr in interest, and even with ~$550–$680M/yr on ~$6.43B at 8–10% in preferred dividends layered on top, they can still cover fixed obligations short-term by liquidating BTC or issuing more equity. That keeps them out of Chapter 11 in the near term. But the trade-off is ugly: Massive dilution from issuing stock at distressed prices, or Selling BTC at $23K just to stay afloat. The real problem is the refinancing wall starting late 2027. With equity wiped on paper and ~$1.1B coming due by early 2028, any refinancing deal will be extremely punitive, handing creditors cheap equity or forcing fire-sale BTC disposals. Market pricing implication: Equity = option value only. Common stock would likely collapse into deeply distressed single digits (<$10), well below NAV, because shareholders sit behind $8.2B in converts and $6.4B+ in high-yield preferreds. So even if BTC really does retrace all the way to $23k, MSTR doesn’t go to $0 right away, but the stock trades like a distressed, over-leveraged call option on Bitcoin, with survival depending entirely on a rebound before maturities hit. BTC Forecast:
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Intuit
Microstrategy Is Still Pointing Higher For The Final 5th WaveMicrostrategy is a US business intelligence and software company, but it has become best known for its aggressive Bitcoin strategy. Under co-founder Michael Saylor, the company shifted from focusing mainly on software to also using Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. Since 2020, MicroStrategy has been steadily buying Bitcoin, often using debt or equity raises to finance purchases. Their strategy is based on the belief that Bitcoin is superior to holding cash, as it can act as a long-term store of value against inflation and currency debasement. From an Elliott wave perspective, we see Microstrategy nicely holding above trendline connected from the 2022 lows, so it's still unfolding a five-wave bullish impulse. Currently, it's consolidating within a bullish triangle pattern in wave (4), and once it's fully finished, we can expect another and maybe final push to the upside for wave (5) this year before a higher degree correction and bear market shows up next year. We also want to mention that even Bitcoin can be finishing a 3-year bullish cycle, which can end this year, but there's still some space for more gains along with the Microstrategy to complete the 5th wave of an impulse.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by ew-forecast
1
MSTR Riding Momentum – Can $345 Gamma Resistance Break? (Oct 2)Intraday (15-Min Chart) MicroStrategy surged strongly, climbing into the $338–$343 zone before consolidating along the rising channel. On the 15-min chart, price is tracking its upper trendline with MACD momentum turning positive again, while Stoch RSI is extended but still supportive. * Immediate resistance: $343.5–$345 (channel top). * Support levels: $333 first, then $322.2 as structural support. * Upside trigger: Break above $345 unlocks potential toward 352–356 intraday. * Downside risk: Failure to hold $333 could trigger a pullback to $322 or even $315.9. Bias intraday: bullish above 333, but watch for exhaustion if price stalls under 345. Options / GEX (1-Hour Chart) Gamma exposure highlights where MSTR could face resistance and support. * Call walls: Major resistance aligns at 345, marking the highest positive GEX level. Above this, dealers may unwind hedges, opening the door for a squeeze toward 356–360. * Put walls: Anchored around 310 and 300, which provide the nearest downside protection zones. * Sentiment: Options activity shows only ~26% calls, signaling less speculative bullishness compared to high-volume tech names. This suggests that while MSTR is pushing into resistance, a breakout above 345 could accelerate quickly due to thin liquidity and strong dealer positioning. My Thoughts For Oct 2, MSTR looks constructive within its channel. I’d lean bullish above $333, targeting 345 breakout and a move toward 352+. For options traders, a 340/355 call spread offers defined risk into gamma resistance. Conversely, if weakness emerges under $333, put spreads toward 322–310 provide downside coverage. Bias: Bullish momentum remains, but $345 is the key inflection — breakout or rejection decides the next leg. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by BullBearInsights