XLP bearish till 66XLP bearish till 66
Pitchfork headed to new bearish downleg.
Stay tuned for further sellers
Inflation higher than expected and global trade slowdown due to secondary sanctions will cooloff this ETF
XLP trade ideas
XLP 73/70 Mar 18 Put Credit SpreadThis idea is a little out of the norm for me. I generally stick to broad market, but from time to time I play sectors.
Credit Received: 0.36 or $36 / contract
Strikes: Short 73 Long 70
Max Loss: 300-36 = $264 per contract
Short Leg Delta: 30 Delta (more on this below)
Trade Reasoning:
1. Market is being beat up by both the Ukraine - Russia situation and inflation, if both continue to worsen I believe consumer staples (what XLP tracks) will outperform the rest of the market.
2. White line presents a possible support level above my short strike here - Check!
3. Renko Overlay indicator from www.tradingview.com is a new addition to my chart, and it showed another decent support level (see picture below), this is represented by the yellow dashed line.
12% Return on risk - Less than 30 DTE - TP at 50% - SL at -200%
Notes:
1. Delta is almost 2x what I normally shoot for (16 delta normal short target), however with these sector ETFs there is often wide spreads, little volume and somewhat crappy IV as well. As such, beggars can't be choosers.
2. Average True Range - ATR on this thing is piddly, so I felt more comfortable going closer to the money here.
3. Renko has been something that I have played with in the past, but I found it left out TOO much info. As such this overlay option from /u/LonesomeTheBlue is a very welcome addition.
sectors s&p sectors s&p ..................... how related sectors in the future will be affected by the inertes rate cute
Defensives to winLate cycle allocations are at peak. Now its time for defensives. They overperformed the index in January, will keep benefiting from cycle rotation
XLPDaily Chart Report
XLP looks like it is forming a bull flag. If it breaks out to the upside then the first price target would be the ATH resistance level. If it breaks down then you will find support around the 73 level. If you see the indicator below the two lines are compressing. A compression always leads to an expansion. A big move is in the cards next week. I also want to note that XLP is a defensive sector so it tends to outperform in a choppy market.
Week 4: Sector ETF Expectations I use sector ETFs in my IRA account. Currently, I hold XOP and XLF, and I wish I held XLE. I will try to buy XLP (Which shouldn't be a problem) next week.
For Week 4, I'm expecting XLF to firm up and XOP to come in a bit. XLE would be kind to give me an entry point at prior resistance/ support, but we'll see. Oil looks darn strong at the moment.
XLF (Held), hurt me Friday, but held support.
XLE on fire
XOP (Held), can it hang on and break through resistance?
XLP potential topXLP is coming up to a potential top with a morning star starting to for on 24hr. Looks to be forming a broadening top as well. pushed up to a nice fib level for potential reversal with strong selling volume at the top. Momentum is drying up on the 1 hr and 4hr as well as multiple bearish divergences
XLP strongest sector to close out 2021It should be noted that most of the strength to close out 2021 was in the more defensive sectors. XLP, XLU, XLRE ect all very strong. Not the best sign to start off the new year.
Consumer Staples Fade PlayRotation into defense sectors like consumer staples has played out well since December 10th's inflation report.
With 5% breakaway run into all time highs, I will be looking to play any side ways and downward pressure with credit spreads.
XLP/SPYXLP relative to SPY has be outperforming for the path 4weeks. It is now hitting resistance. If it breaks resistance it can run up quite a bit. The resistance level is also confluencing with the 50day SMA.
Consumer DefensiveConsumer Defensive are overbought on inflation readings. Need a retracement, which shouldn't go deeper than 20ema, then the upward trend should resume
XLP BreakoutBeen watching this setup for a little while. not much you can do now unless you're already in XLP names from lower, but it's a great example of capital flows re-orienting around defensive names at the moment, in light of potential tapering / rates moves in the future. High mult continues to flounder.
XLPXLP setting up for a breakout. A intraday cross above the 73.25 will give XLP a massive pump. An increase in green volume will be the key.
It's time to be defensive next couple months- This chart is showing the price action for XLP/ SPY. XLP is the consumer staples ETF and is the sector that investors flock to during risk off situations in the market.
- What I'm trying to show here is the massive divergence between price and RSI. Momentum is building up for last few months which means a massive rally in XLP/ SPY is coming.
- A couple examples are from 2014- 2015 and 2007
XLP - Consumer Staples Ponzied - Made in China - Stuck at SeaCOGS/PPI etc. is through the roof. Shipping a product? Good luck. Atleast #cannabisreform is going on. $KERN- the CANNABIS DATA Software!!! GO USA MSOSs!!!!
Multi State Operators! #thegem #jobsandjustice *rising rates environment.
Go Small cap gems. #valueinvesting
XLP/SPY : Risk On Till XLP Starts Outperforming SPYXLP - Consumer Staples are up 40% from their covid low, SPY is up over 90% since April 2020.
A bottom in XLP/SPY has always signaled a larger degree market correction. Investors rush into XLP as a flight to safety.
The ratio XLP/SPY looks like its chugging down still and have followed in the weakness of defensive stocks these past weeks.
WAKE ME UP WHEN XLP STARTS TO OUTPERFORM SPY until then zZz
XLP1. EMA's crossing down?
2.Price near support and is oversold.
3. If price breaks through bottom oval we could see a true retracement to support.
4. I price breaks through top oval, we could see a retracement to the upside.
SPX Vs. Staples, far away from any correction in sight !!!!- All else equal
- We are far a way from any possible correction, or NOT !!!
- We are far a way from the "Zero" line.
- High risk using just this as an indicator.
Is XLP beginning to overcome XLY?What could it mean for the markets if XLP stocks outpaced XLY stocks?
Consumer Staples Mean Reversion200-day moving average looks like a magnet. A bearish thesis could be based on a slow grind back down to this indicator.
