New ATH in Short-Term?In this video, I have updated my previous daily chart #elliottwave counts on #BTC, #ETH, and #totalmarketcap, explaining why a new ATH is quite possible in the short-term.
BTCETH.P trade ideas
Bitcoin Short-Term Bearish Setup: Why 112k Support Could Be Test1. Resistance Zone Rejection
The 118k – 120k area is acting as a strong resistance zone.
BTC price attempted to push into this level but got rejected, which indicates a potential bearish reaction.
2. Rising Wedge Pattern
Currently, BTC is moving inside a rising wedge pattern.
This is typically a bearish structure, and if it breaks to the downside, price usually retraces toward the lower boundary of the channel.
3. RSI Overbought & Divergence
The RSI is around 64 – 65, which is on the higher side.
Previously, there was a bearish RSI divergence, signaling weakening bullish momentum and a possible shift to the downside.
4. Key Support Zone (112,000$ – 110,000$)
The green zone between 112k – 110k is a major support area.
Even if price retraces, it could find strong buying support here, making it a natural downside target.
Balance of Payments & World Trade ImbalancesPart I: Understanding the Balance of Payments
1. What is the Balance of Payments?
The Balance of Payments is a systematic record of all economic transactions between residents of a country and the rest of the world. It includes trade in goods and services, cross-border investments, transfers, and monetary flows.
In principle, the BoP always balances: total credits (money coming in) equal total debits (money going out). However, the composition of transactions—whether surpluses or deficits in certain accounts—matters for economic stability.
2. Main Components of BoP
a) Current Account
The current account records trade in goods, services, primary income (investment income, wages), and secondary income (remittances, foreign aid).
Trade balance: Exports minus imports of goods.
Services balance: Exports minus imports of services such as tourism, IT outsourcing, shipping, etc.
Primary income: Interest, dividends, wages.
Secondary income: Transfers like remittances, pensions, grants.
A current account surplus means a country is a net lender to the rest of the world, while a deficit means it is a net borrower.
b) Capital Account
This is usually small and records transfers of capital assets, debt forgiveness, and non-produced, non-financial assets (like patents or natural resource rights).
c) Financial Account
The financial account tracks cross-border investments:
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Long-term investments in businesses abroad.
Portfolio Investment: Stocks, bonds, and securities.
Other Investments: Loans, trade credits, banking flows.
Reserve Assets: Central bank reserves (foreign currencies, gold, IMF position).
d) Errors & Omissions
Statistical discrepancies that arise due to imperfect data reporting.
3. Why is BoP Important?
Macro stability indicator: Reveals structural strengths/weaknesses in a country’s economy.
Policy formulation: Helps governments decide on fiscal, monetary, and trade policies.
Investor confidence: Influences credit ratings, exchange rates, and capital inflows.
Global coordination: Used by IMF, WTO, and G20 to monitor systemic risks.
Part II: World Trade Imbalances
1. Defining Trade Imbalances
A trade imbalance occurs when a country persistently runs a trade surplus (exports > imports) or trade deficit (imports > exports). While short-term imbalances are natural, structural and persistent gaps can destabilize the world economy.
2. Causes of Trade Imbalances
a) Differences in Productivity and Competitiveness
Countries with higher productivity (e.g., Germany, Japan) tend to export more, creating surpluses.
b) Currency Valuations
If a country’s currency is undervalued (e.g., Chinese yuan in the 2000s), its exports become cheaper, widening surpluses. Conversely, overvalued currencies contribute to deficits.
c) Consumption and Savings Behavior
The U.S. model: High consumption, low savings → trade deficits.
The Asian model: High savings, export-oriented growth → trade surpluses.
d) Resource Dependence
Oil-exporting nations like Saudi Arabia often run surpluses due to high energy demand.
e) Global Supply Chains
Multinational corporations fragment production globally. Goods may be “assembled in China” but use inputs from multiple countries, complicating trade balance measurement.
f) Government Policies
Subsidies, tariffs, currency interventions, and trade agreements influence competitiveness.
3. Consequences of Trade Imbalances
a) For Deficit Countries
Rising external debt.
Dependence on foreign capital.
Currency depreciation risk.
Political vulnerability (e.g., U.S.–China tensions).
b) For Surplus Countries
Overreliance on external demand.
Domestic underconsumption.
Exposure to global downturns.
Accusations of “unfair trade practices.”
c) Global Impact
Exchange rate misalignments.
Risk of trade wars and protectionism.
Global financial crises (imbalances partly fueled 2008).
Distorted capital flows—surpluses recycled into deficit-country debt markets.
Part III: Historical & Contemporary Case Studies
1. The U.S. Trade Deficit
Since the 1980s, the U.S. has run persistent current account deficits.
Driven by high consumption, dollar reserve currency status, and globalization.
Funded by foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds, especially by China and Japan.
2. China’s Surplus
Export-led industrialization strategy.
Massive trade surpluses in the 2000s, peaking near 10% of GDP in 2007.
Accumulated trillions in foreign reserves.
Gradual rebalancing after 2010, but surplus remains large.
3. Eurozone Imbalances
Germany runs huge surpluses, while southern Europe (Greece, Spain, Italy) historically ran deficits.
Imbalances within a common currency area created debt crises during the 2010 Eurozone crisis.
4. Oil Exporters
OPEC countries run surpluses during high oil prices.
But face volatility when prices crash.
5. Japan
Historically a surplus country due to its manufacturing strength.
Demographic decline now affecting its external balance.
Part IV: Policy Responses to Trade Imbalances
1. Domestic Policy Options
For deficit countries: Promote exports, encourage savings, reduce fiscal deficits.
For surplus countries: Stimulate domestic consumption, allow currency appreciation.
2. Exchange Rate Adjustments
Flexible exchange rates can correct imbalances, but in practice, many governments intervene in currency markets.
3. Trade Agreements & Protectionism
Tariffs, quotas, and trade deals aim to adjust trade balances, though they often create new distortions.
4. Role of International Institutions
IMF: Provides surveillance, loans, and adjustment programs.
WTO: Mediates trade disputes.
G20: Coordinates global responses to imbalances.
Part V: Future Outlook
1. Digital Economy & Services Trade
The rise of digital platforms, e-commerce, and remote services (IT, finance, design) is reshaping BoP structures. Countries strong in digital services (India, U.S., Ireland) may offset merchandise deficits.
2. Geopolitical Shifts
U.S.–China rivalry, reshoring, and supply chain diversification will affect trade balances.
3. Climate Transition
Green technologies, carbon tariffs, and energy transitions will change global trade patterns. Oil exporters may see reduced surpluses in the long term.
4. Multipolar Currencies
The U.S. dollar may gradually lose dominance, with the euro, yuan, and digital currencies playing larger roles in financial accounts.
5. AI & Automation
Advanced technology may reduce labor-cost advantages, altering comparative advantage and global imbalances.
Conclusion
The Balance of Payments is not just a technical accounting statement—it is a powerful lens through which to view the global economy. Persistent world trade imbalances reflect deep structural factors: consumption patterns, savings rates, productivity, resource endowments, and government strategies.
While deficits and surpluses are not inherently “bad,” their persistence at extreme levels poses risks of instability, inequality, and geopolitical friction. Addressing them requires coordinated domestic reforms, international policy cooperation, and adaptive strategies for a rapidly changing world economy.
In the 21st century, as global trade evolves with digitalization, climate change, and shifting geopolitics, the challenge will be to ensure that the Balance of Payments reflects not just imbalances, but sustainable, inclusive, and resilient patterns of global economic exchange.
BTC intra?
Hi
115800 was arejection area.
If this is right we'll have a 5% rejection till 110,000
I'm not a guru.
All the best
BTCUSD H1 chart Outlook BTCUSD (H1) 📊
BUY ZONE ---> 115,800
TG1 ---> 117,200
TG2 ---> 118,400
SL--> Below Liquidity Zone
BITCOIN BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 116,755.21
Target Level: 105,443.33
Stop Loss: 124,254.10
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
BTC EXITED covered more than 2k points in this trade
No risk was there to hold
Weekends made me exit 😞
It was a wonderful experience
Happy weekend. !!
BTC/USD Sell Setup: Overbought Signals a Pullback!COINBASE:BTCUSD The price is currently approaching a key resistance zone at the upper boundary of the ascending channel. This level often marks the point where a pullback could occur, especially as the price nears the top of the channel. If a correction takes place, the next key support level to watch is 113,500 USD.
Should buyers manage to defend this support, the bullish trend could continue, with potential for the price to break through previous highs. However, if the price breaks below the support level, we may see a deeper retracement back to the lower part of the channel.
This setup offers a potential opportunity to enter if a pullback occurs, especially with confirmation from price action, candle patterns, and volume around the key levels. Make sure to manage risk appropriately and only take trades when your setup is validated.
What are your thoughts on this setup? Drop your comments below, and let’s discuss!
Wishing you successful trades!
BTC to 160 > 190, maybeThis is one of many potential paths I have for BTC and want to publish it to see if it tracks. There's a lot going on here. what's important is the fib levels are all validated, meaning, if they complete their path they will hit these levels. of course, the timing is always an issue as are the pullbacks. Right now, this is the bullish case with a retrace in 2026. Yep, it could go all the way back to somewhere $75-$68K. Let's see how it does!
Is Btc STILL following this fractal?If Btc (on the 1 Day) is following this Eth (4 hr) fractal, then Btc may soon see a lower low.
I hope I'm wrong. But I am cautious for several reason, as also indicated in my other previously published charts.
Trade safe...
BTC Trade Update - Hidden Divergence on 30M TF📢 NFX Market Update – BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
A hidden bearish divergence has formed on the 30M timeframe around $116,700. This signals the likelihood of a short-term retracement in the next few hours.
🔒 Lock in partial profits and trail stops to protect gains. The broader trend remains bullish, and I still expect continuation after this pullback.
Allow profits to continue growing.Today, Bitcoin's price movement has demonstrated a healthy rhythm of "testing - retracing - re-attacking": in the early trading session, it first moved upward to test the previous key resistance level, then proactively retraced to the lower support to confirm the validity of the breakout. After completing the correction, it once again launched a challenge to today's high. This retracement and correction trend not only digests the selling pressure from short-term profit-taking orders but also further accumulates the bullish momentum in the market. Compared with the previous oscillating pattern where "a breakout is immediately followed by a pullback", the current trend is more sustainable, laying a foundation for the continuation of the subsequent trend.
From the technical perspective of the hourly chart, there are clear bullish signals: the moving averages have formed an upward divergence pattern, and the price has always stood firmly above all moving averages. The moving average system has switched from a "convergent oscillation" state to a "bullish arrangement". This indicates that the short-term market has gradually broken away from the previous range-bound consolidation and officially transitioned to a bullish trend. Based on the current trend judgment, there is no need to rush to adjust the positions we established earlier in accordance with the strategy; we should continue to hold the existing positions and "let profits run".
If you feel confused about the future market trend, or if you have not yet made profits in such a market, follow me and leave me a message – let me help you resolve this issue.
BTCUSD ShortBroader Market Structure (BTCUSD 15M):
The broader structure shows a strong impulsive rally followed by a sharp rejection at the high. A Break of Structure (BOS) at 116,365.54 confirmed bullish continuation, but the immediate reaction was heavy selling, pulling price back toward mid-range levels. This type of BOS followed by rejection often signals liquidity grab behavior rather than sustained momentum, leaving the market vulnerable to a pullback.
Supply and Demand Zones:
The most relevant demand sits between 115,400–115,600, where buyers previously stepped in with strength and drove a clean rally that broke structure. This makes it a strong zone on first retest. Below that, deeper demand lies closer to 114,300–114,500, where price consolidated before launching higher; this zone is stronger as it produced the large impulsive move upward. On the supply side, resistance around 116,300–116,500 rejected price sharply, confirming active sellers at the top.
Price Action in the Marked Region:
Within the highlighted region, price is turning down after rejecting the upper supply. The arrow drawn reflects an expected retracement back into the 115,400–115,600 demand zone. If buyers defend this area again, a bounce back toward 116,300 highs is likely. However, a clean breakdown through this demand would expose the deeper 114,300–114,500 zone.
Trade Bias & Outlook:
The current bias is short-term bearish for a pullback into demand. Expected direction is down toward 115,500, with the invalidation level at a sustained break above 116,500, which would flip the bias back bullish and suggest continuation toward 117,000.
Momentum & Candle Behavior:
Momentum is leaning slightly toward sellers in the near term, shown by rejection wicks at the high and a loss of follow-through on bullish candles. A strong bearish engulfing candle into the demand zone would confirm the pullback scenario.
BitcoinBitcoin broke 115000, this became support, the uptrend continues, by the Fibonacci expansion and Round levels the next level is at 125000
BTCUSD set to cross 127,000?BTCUSD pulled back to $107,309 upon crossing $124,567 , monthly closed with a long bearish candle. With new candle opened, market started bounce back to the major direction of the trend with a confirmation of daily cross over of 20ema and 10ema price may bounce off the current resistance to create a new all time high!
BTCUSD Short: A Corrective Decline is AnticipatedHello, traders! The price auction for BTCUSD has been clearly defined by a large ascending channel. This bullish structure has guided the price higher through a series of higher highs and higher lows, with the demand zone 2 at the 110000 level acting as a major foundational low. The initiative has remained firmly with the buyers throughout this trend.
Currently, the auction is at a critical inflection point, having reached the upper supply line of the ascending channel. This test of the highs comes after a sustained rally, and the market is now in a key area where selling pressure is expected to emerge. This price action could indicate a phase of trend exhaustion.
The primary scenario anticipates a short-term corrective move from these highs. The expectation is that after a potential final push higher, the price will be rejected from the channel's resistance. A confirmed reversal would signal a temporary shift in control to sellers. The take-profit for this corrective play is therefore set at the 113400 level, targeting the major horizontal demand zone. Manage your risk!
Triple confirmation with early stop for BTCMy trading strategy has been evolving over time after running several backtesting sessions and going through trial and error in real time. Currently, it consists of looking for trades with at least 3 confirmations and an early stop loss.
In this case, we can see that BTC shows the following confirmations for a short position:
-Completed Elliott Wave count, with 5 waves and 5 sub-waves finished.
-Rising wedge (bearish signal).
-Double top on the 1D chart.
-RSI divergence in 1D and 1W.
Additionally, it also meets the condition of having a nearby stop loss at the 1D candle close at 112,550 (meaning that if there’s a daily candle close above 112,550, we exit the trade with a small loss).
These types of trades are the ones I’ve been executing for some time now, and they’ve given me a very good hit rate (with only a few losses).
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Key Resistance Test AheadBTC is approaching resistance around 117,200 – 117,600 after a strong rally. A rejection from this zone may trigger a pullback into the 114,000 demand area before continuation higher.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 117,200 – 117,600
Support: 114,000 zone
Upside target: New highs if 117,600 breaks
⚠️ This is technical analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk accordingly.
BTCUSD resistance retest at 115,420The BTCUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 109,040 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 109,040 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
115,420 – initial resistance
117,400 – psychological and structural level
119,260 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 109,040 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
106,470 – minor support
104,340 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the BTCUSD holds above 109,040. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
BTC bullish, targeting $115K and $120KWhat I have here is a series of fib fans and a fib retracement. You can see we hit the 61.8 and 50% retraces (red arrows), perfectly. There is a confluence of targets above. Momentum is supportive.
Complicated Market… AgainComplicated Market… Again 🎯📈
Today’s market is complex — BTC, ETH, SOL — nothing is straightforward. If you’re trading today, the message is simple: follow the structure, respect the levels, and stay alert to real-time price action. The market is alive, evolving minute by minute, and we need to be ready for both breakouts and fakeouts.
Bitcoin (BTC) – Watch these levels closely:
-Key resistance: 118,689 – 118,540. A daily close above this opens room for upside continuation.
-Immediate support zones: 113,200 → 110,641 → 108,000.
-If BTC drops below 115k, prepare for a potential deeper test of support.
-Price under 115k = caution; over 115–118k = potential long zone.
Ethereum (ETH) – Structured trades for today:
-Resistance: 4,551 – the last major rejection.
-Key entry zones: Buy low near 4,326, or breakout above 4,560 for continuation.
-ETH remains a key barometer for altcoin momentum; watch it closely.
Altcoins & Solana (SOL) – Secondary, but still important:
-SOL continues to outperform, but trade it with context.
Channels and classic structure hold. Breakouts can be manipulated, so mid-channel and top-channel levels are key:
• Mid-channel: 196–234
• Upper resistance: 271–362
The 1.414 Fib level acts as a magnet for smart money — keep it in mind as a warning, not a target. ( )
Dominance & Market Sentiment
-BTC dominance is trapped in 58–56.9% range — when dominance drops, alts have room to move.
-ETH dominance is holding a strong level (13.82–18.14) — a signal for caution in alt season.
Today, it’s about reading these signals in real time and adjusting trades according to what the charts are telling you.
The takeaway: Markets today are not straightforward. Breakouts are real, but fakeouts exist. Smart money influences levels, but the structure never lies. Stay disciplined, follow the charts, and trade the levels — not the hype. Real-time observation is everything today.
🔄 Mindset Check 🧘
“Today’s market is complicated, but clarity comes from structure. Respect the levels, manage risk, and remember: patience beats prediction.”
Disclaimer: These are my personal observations for today’s market. They are not financial advice. Every trade is your responsibility. Trade wisely, manage risk, and protect your capital. And remember it's all a game, play to have fun, your goal is to make dough but remember to manage emotions and risk or you are doomed
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
UPDATE: The Test before the rally for Bitcoin to $146,942?Bitcoin hit $124,000 and looked like it was only the start of the target to $200,000.
But now, we can see there has been a retrace, a test and now it seems it wants to go up further.
This CUp and Handle is a large one and time is needed for this to play out.
We have the risk and reward levels in place, so we'll now have to wait for it pick up momentum.
Either it can take a few months or a few weeks, all depends on the catapult motion.
MAJOR Cup and Handle forming.
Price> 20 and 200MA
Target 146,942
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"BTC/USD: Bearish Structure with Target Toward Demand Zone"
1. Market Context
On the 15-minute chart, BTC/USD is currently exhibiting a short-term **bearish market structure**, following a clear **Break of Structure (BOS)** at the $115,662 level. This shift came after a strong rejection from the identified **supply zone** between $116,250 and $116,365.54. Since then, price has been trading within a **bearish range**, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows.
2. Key Technical Zones
*Supply Zone:$116,250 – $116,365.54
This is a key resistance area where selling pressure was previously dominant.
*Demand Zone: $114,167.58 – $114,698.53
This zone may act as support and is a potential area for bullish reaction if price retraces lower.
*Unfilled Zone: Below $114,167
Represents a price inefficiency (also referred to as imbalance or FVG) that may draw price further down if the demand zone fails to hold.
3. Price Action Overview
* The market has transitioned into a **bearish range** post-BOS, indicating that intraday momentum currently favors sellers.
* A **short-term risky short setup** is noted near $115,540. However, due to its proximity to the BOS and potential retracement, this setup is considered high-risk.
* A potential **short-term target** has been identified at $114,560.32, located within the active demand zone, aligning with historical reaction levels.
4. Recent Price Behavior
*Consolidation Phase: Price traded sideways in a range before the breakout, building liquidity on both sides.
*Order Block (OB): A bullish order block was formed before the upward impulse; however, post-breakdown, it has been invalidated, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
5. Technical Outlook
* As long as price remains below the BOS level at $115,662, the **short-term structure remains bearish**.
* If price continues lower and enters the **demand zone**, the area between $114,560 and $114,167 could be tested.
* A break and sustained move below the demand zone would expose the **unfilled zone**, increasing the probability of further downside.
* Conversely, if price reclaims the BOS level and consolidates above $115,662, the bearish bias would be invalidated, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
Final Thought:
BTC/USD is currently trading within a **bearish intraday structure**, with lower timeframe dynamics favoring continued downside toward the $114,560 target. While short opportunities exist,
