Btc is Bullish - it approaches an end of a historical timelineOn Sept 3rd I had suggested that Btc had bottomed and would bounce into one of my 3 targets. As anticipated Btc has now hit the top of target 2 (T2).
More importantly, I suggested Btc would bounce to these targets within 1-2 weeks ("18 days max"). Meaning based on a the patterns involving 3 red weeks down, Btc always sees the bounce end by day 18 or sooner...then retraces (often below the previous low -ie $117K).
Yet we are now at day 18 and Btc is not showing signs of a retracement. If Btc does not begin it's retrace today, then this is very bullish for Btc and the altcoin market. I am cautiously bullish as my bias has changed as a result of this new data. We must learn to pivot our trading strategies as price action unfolds. But being able to apply strategies to anticipate price action, helps us to know immediately when our trade ideas are being invalidated. It appears we possibly have an invalidation and I am shifting my approach accordingly.
Btc to the moon. Let's go!
BTCETH.P trade ideas
The market mid term is showing bearish signs in my view.That's right The market mid term is showing bearish signs in my view.
1st it failed to rally the way it rallies when its in full bull, we don't see 5k 10k daily candles anymore, (that's because bitcoin is maturing (I heard that one before) and no the reason its because people is still bullish and greed is predominant.
2nd The resistance below 124k is strong, meaning lots of sales are happening potentially calling for a double top
3rd this brings me to the conclusion that demand is drying up and supply will soon dominate
Using this information I can easily deduct that BTC still has potential to break the resistance above but it will get sold at around 120-122k
Going down the support will be at around 108-110k
and worse case scenario is at 98-100k As in previous instances.
BTCUSD Bullish ForecastHi there,
BTCUSD has the potential to drop from the 112,804.80 level for a possible pullback up to 113,332.19. Overall, the market sentiment is bullish, but there are some areas of caution on the way up.
The 114,197.02 level is a potential strong area of resistance, which will determine if 113,332.19 will hold.
The bias is toward 114,650.17, with two potential price targets: 114,002.43 and 113,495.55.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not a trading advice; there is no guaranteed outcome.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin break out of range?!Bitcoin is above EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If the downward trend continues towards the specified demand range, we can buy Bitcoin with appropriate risk-reward.
Bitcoin’s rise to around 121,000 and its arrival at the specified supply range will provide us with its next selling position. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within the $110,000 to $117,000 range, as reduced capital inflows into ETFs combined with intensified profit-taking exert mounting pressure on its upward momentum. In this environment, the derivatives market—driven by the strong presence of futures and options contracts—plays a central role in balancing and shaping market direction. Profit-taking by 3–6 month holders, alongside losses realized by recent buyers at price peaks, has fueled selling pressure across the market.
On-chain liquidity still maintains a constructive structure, but signs of gradual weakening are evident. Meanwhile, net ETF inflows and outflows have declined to around 500 BTC per day, significantly undermining demand from traditional finance (TradFi), which had previously been a key driver of rallies in March and December 2024.
Following the mid-August all-time high, market momentum steadily weakened, dragging Bitcoin below the cost basis of recent buyers at the top and pushing the asset back into a range-bound structure. The critical question now is whether this reflects a healthy consolidation phase or the beginning of a deeper corrective cycle.
While dip-buyers provided some support, the primary selling pressure originated from experienced short-term holders. Data shows that 3–6 month holders have been realizing approximately $189 million in daily profits (based on the 14-day moving average), accounting for nearly 79% of total short-term holder realized gains. These figures indicate that many investors who entered the market during the February-to-May correction used the recent rally as an opportunity to lock in profits—creating considerable resistance against upward continuation.
In addition to profit-taking from seasoned short-term holders, recent peak buyers also capitulated by realizing losses during the pullback, further amplifying selling pressure. Alongside on-chain dynamics, assessing external demand through ETFs remains crucial, as these instruments have been pivotal in driving the current market cycle.
Since early August, net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs have sharply declined, currently averaging around 500 BTC per day (14-day moving average). This is far below the levels of capital inflows that had previously supported the bullish phase of the cycle, reflecting weakening momentum from TradFi investors. Given the central role of ETFs in fueling Bitcoin’s recent uptrend, the slowdown in flows makes the market’s current structure noticeably more fragile.
Meanwhile, blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket has announced a new collaboration with Chainlink. The partnership aims to launch 15-minute crypto prediction markets featuring rapid settlement and industry-leading security standards.
The integration of Chainlink’s oracle technology with Polymarket’s trading infrastructure is expected to enhance user access to accurate and reliable data, delivering a new experience in short-term prediction markets. This collaboration could mark a turning point in the development of innovative trading instruments and price forecasting tools.
BTC/USD 12H local downtrend📊 Chart structure
• BTC price: ~ 112,765 USD (decrease -2.18%).
• Trend: after prior reflection from the holes (~ 107k), BTC is approaching the resistance zone.
• Inheritance channel: The marked yellow line suggests that the price is still in a medium -term inheritance trend
⸻
🔑 levels of support and resistance
• Support:
• USD 111,461 (close to support - if it falls, a quick test below).
• USD 107,346 (key support - its loss opens the road towards 103-105k).
• resistance:
• USD 118.004 (important level of resistance).
• USD 124.619 (strong resistance - local peaks).
⸻
📈 indicators
• SMA (movable average):
• Red (SMA #1) - short -term, currently acts as dynamic resistance.
• Green (SMA #2) - average, the price fights around it.
• Blue (SMA #5) - long -term, still above the price, which means inheritance pressure.
• MacD:
• You can see a slight weakening of the growth moment. If there is no strong demand, it is possible to cut the signal down (inheritance signal).
• RSI (12H):
• fell from the level close to buying (~ 70) to ~ 45–50.
• Neutral, but with a slight tendency to further weakness.
⸻
🧭 Scenarios
1. Bullish:
• Support defense 111,400 USD → Reflection up.
• If $ 118,000 stands out, the next target is USD 124,600.
• Breaking over 125K will negate the inheritance channel and can open the road to 130K+.
2. Bearish:
• Support loss 111,400 USD → test 107,300 USD.
• If the 107K does not stand, a further decrease is possible to 103-105k.
BTCUSD Analysis (Daily)BTCUSD — Timeframe Daily
Sona Community Point — 26 Sep 2025
Entry
109,036
Stop Loss
107,419
Take Profit
128,731
Risk / Reward
~1 : 10.3
Validation Zone: Demand Daily + trendline ascending channel
Reference chart: view charts on TradingView
Trading Ideas
Setup buy on BTCUSD in the Daily demand area with entry at 109.036, target profit at 128.731, and stop loss at 107.419.
Technical Reasons
The price retests the Daily demand area which is in line with the lower channel trendline.
The structure is still bullish as long as it is in the ascending channel.
RRR is very interesting (1 : 10.3), the potential reward is much greater than the risk.
Entry & Position Management
Entry Strategy:
Entry buy is around 109,036 after there is a valid rejection in demand.
Stop loss at 107,419.
Profit target at 128,731.
Position Management:
Partial TP can be performed at a minor resistance of around 118,000–120,000.
Shift SL to Break Even after the price moves ±3,000–4,000 points.
Invalidation & Alternative Scenarios
Invalidation: if the daily close price is below 107,419, the buy setup is canceled.
Bearish alternative: if demand breaks through, a potential decline to the 104,000–102,000 area.
Pre-Entry Checklist
Wait for the Daily candle rejection confirmation.
Check the RSI/Stochastic if it supports oversold.
The maximum risk is 1–2% of the capital.
BTC/USD Holds Support, Looks for Rally to 117,964BTC/USD is holding above a support zone after recent BOS (Break of Structure) and accumulation in the blue area. If the price maintains this support, a move toward 117,964 is expected. If support fails, a deeper pullback could follow.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
BTC Key Support Test - Will the Bulls Defend?📊 NFX COINBASE:BTCUSD Trade Update
OKX:BTCUSD currently at a major crossroad and key area of interest.
Price sits right at the supply-demand zone and around the 200D SMA on the H4, which is holding up as strong support. What happens here will be critical for the coming weeks and the remaining days of September.
There’s always the possibility of a dip lower to test the 108K zone, but that seems unlikely for now. Then again, this is BINANCE:BTCUSD - the Wild West - where a 10K dump and 10K recovery can happen within 24 hours. ⚡
My bias: expecting a bullish reversal from current support , but I’m keeping close watch on the conditions below.
✅ Conditions for Bullish Trade:
Breakout above the 38.2% FIB
Close above the Trend Resistance
Reclaim the Supply-Demand Zone
Established Bullish Divergence
👀 Watching price action very closely - the next moves from here could set the tone for the rest of September.
BTCUSD Respecting Trendline – Eyes on Resistance ZoneBitcoin is maintaining its bullish structure, respecting the ascending trendline on the daily chart. Price recently reacted from the support zone and is now consolidating near 116,000. As long as the trendline holds, a potential move toward the resistance area around 122,000 – 124,000 remains in play.
Key points:
Trendline support acting as a guide for higher lows
Current consolidation above 112,000 demand zone
Resistance area: 122,000 – 124,000
Break above resistance could open room for further continuation
This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice
BTCUSD Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 DIP has begun!I see strong confirmations to back up a massive dip to 95 - 80k. Currently price is only pulling back to retest that bearish continuation pattern and head and shoulders.
I will send updates on LTFs on this trade idea as price continues to move to the downside.
REAL VS FAKE CHOCK🔹 1. Real Choke vs Fake Choke
A **Choke** in ICT/SMC language usually refers to a **block of price action where liquidity is absorbed** and either the trend reverses or continues strongly. It is connected to the idea of **Order Blocks, IDM (Imbalance-Demand-Mitigations)** and **Liquidity Absorption**.
### ✅ Real Choke
* Happens when **genuine liquidity is absorbed** by institutions (big players).
* Price reacts to the choke level → gives a **clear displacement** in opposite direction.
* Characteristics:
* Strong rejection (impulsive move away).
* Volume & imbalance support the move.
* Leaves behind a valid **IDM / FVG / Order Block**.
* Usually aligns with **higher timeframe POI** (HTF OB, FVG, BPR).
👉 **Effect**: Becomes the base for a **true reversal or strong continuation**.
---
### ❌ Fake Choke
* Happens when price **pretends to absorb liquidity** but it’s just a **stop hunt / inducement**.
* Market sweeps liquidity near choke level → then continues in original direction.
* Characteristics:
* Small/weak rejection, no real displacement.
* No proper imbalance or absorption.
* Often formed just to **trap retail traders** thinking reversal is coming.
* Seen in **mid-range / liquidity inducement zones**, not at HTF POI.
👉 **Effect**: Leads to **continuation in same direction** after trapping liquidity.
---
## 🔹 2. Why IDM (Imbalance Demand Mitigation) is Important
**IDM** is the footprint of institutions when they:
* Absorb liquidity,
* Create imbalance, and
* Mitigate their positions later.
It’s important because:
1. **Shows Institutional Interest** → IDM confirms that Smart Money actually participated.
2. **Validates Choke** → If choke has IDM inside it → higher chance it’s **real**.
3. **Gives Entry Points** → IDM zones often become mitigation levels (precise entries with low risk).
4. **Separates Fake vs Real** → Fake chokes usually have no IDM footprint.
---
## 🔹 3. Role of IDM in Reversal & Liquidity Absorption
When market is reversing:
* First, **retail liquidity is collected** (fake choke).
* Then, institutions place **real choke + IDM** to absorb liquidity.
* The IDM ensures that:
* All **supply/demand imbalance** is cleared,
* Institutions get filled,
* Price is ready for a **clean reversal**.
👉 **In Short:**
* **Fake choke** = liquidity grab.
* **Real choke + IDM** = liquidity absorption + reversal base.
---
⚡So, the easiest filter is:
* If a choke has **IDM (clear imbalance & mitigation footprint)** → it’s **real**.
* If not → it’s just a **fake liquidity sweep**.
BITCOINUSD READY FOR RETEST READ CAPTIONHi trader's what do you think about bitcoinusd
Bitcoin price recently dropped into the support zone 11700–11200, which is acting as a strong demand area. Market is now attempting a retest of this zone.
📌 If the support holds during this retest, buyers may push price upward toward the supply area around 114500.
📌 But if support fails, the market may continue its downside move
For more safe updates & chart analysis, Follow my profile.
Educational BTC IntraDay BULL Idea Educational
IntraDay Idea 💡 🐂
📈 BTC 💸's price is at the support of a H1 Ascending Channel 📊 and has formed a HL with H2 ↗️ DiDTA Formula parameters .
RISK MANAGEMENT
SL 🛡: 115,360$ per BTC (Risked -3$ on 0.01 LS)
TP 💰: I usually target 🎯 progressively 50pips (i.e. +5$ each on 0.01LS)*
🧑🎓REVISE RISK MANAGEMENT 101 👉 HERE
⚠️DISCLAIMER : Be informed that eTrading 💱 could be risky🆘 on the capital the same way as its profitability 💰. It's thus for educational purposes and a risk I can bear, so, follow knowing the risk 💸 and benefit 💰 involved🚨.
BTC: In a tussle around short-term support levelsBTC is experiencing a trend of "consolidation after a breakdown and decline". When BTC fell below the critical support level of 110000, a large number of long positions triggered forced liquidation, forming a negative feedback loop of "decline - liquidation - further decline", which further amplified the decline. From the perspective of technical indicators, BTC is currently in a stage of competition near the key support level: although the price has declined, the trading volume remains at a high level, indicating that there is a large number of share swaps in the 108000 - 110000 range. If there is a signal of shrinking volume and stabilization near the support level in the future, it may indicate that the short-term downward trend will slow down and the momentum for further sharp decline will weaken. It is necessary to strictly control the position and avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
The current price is still in the correction stage of the upward channel, and a bottoming rebound may occur at any time. If there is no systematic risk, investors can deploy in batches on dips, but they need to be alert to changes in macro policies and sudden changes in regulatory policies.
Buy 109000 - 109200
TP 109700 - 110000
SL 108600
Sell 109800 - 110000
TP 108500 - 108800
SL 110200
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
BTCUSD 1D Chart🔎 key levels
• Resistance: approx. 117,971 USD
• Resistance: approx. 111 426 USD -
• Support 2: approx. 108 292 USD - the course is testing this level.
• Strong support: approx. 103 883 USD - strategic defense level.
📈 Trend
• You can see a clear upward trend (orange trend line), but has just been violated by a strong relegation candle.
• It can be a signal of buyers' weaknesses.
📊 oscillator (Stoch RSI)
• It is very low (close to the sale zone).
• This means that a short -term reflection may occur, but there is no confirmation.
🚩 Scenarios
1. Bycza - if the course reflects from 108k and returns above 111k, a possible approach to 117K.
Supported at 110,000–111,000, we stay bullishAnother successful long entry 🚀! As we have repeatedly stated before, as long as BTC does not break below the 110000–111000 support range 🛡️, we will still maintain a bullish outlook 🐂
Buy @111000
TP 112000 - 11300 -113500
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
Has ATTENTION PEAKED on BTC & Crypto?Examining the daily BTC/USD HTF chart, several indicators suggest a potential market top scenario reminiscent of previous Bitcoin peaks. The chart highlights three core components: RSI, MACD, and price action versus trendlines. Notably, the recurring MACD pattern—with a sequence of five yellow-labeled local peaks and valleys—has appeared near each major high, further strengthened by the visible red arrows marking historical tops.
Context:
The MACD panel shows a clear recurring pattern—each market peak coincides with closely-clustered MACD bursts and subsequent reversals, labeled (1)-(5), that echo the structure identified at Bitcoin’s previous all-time highs in early 2021 and again in mid-2025. These bursts typically reflect maximum market participation and social/media attention, followed by rapid declines as momentum wanes.
RSI values in both instances remain elevated but subside as price fails to break the red resistance lines, indicating weakening bullish strength.
The price chart itself displays a series of failed attempts to break above strong horizontal resistance (red lines), directly aligning with previous market highs. Each peak aligns with a spike in market excitement and a corresponding cluster of MACD peaks.
The long-term green trendline underscores Bitcoin’s structural uptrend but also frames the risk—should price lose the trendline, historical price action suggests deeper corrections are possible.
Trading:
Given the repetition of this MACD burst pattern and multi-timeframe rejection at horizontal resistance, there is strong evidence that peak market attention and buying pressure for BTC have likely already occurred for this cycle. Previous instances saw significant corrections following similar technical conditions, suggesting caution is warranted.
Short Profit Target: Initial target for shorts could be set near the green trendline support, around $85,000-$90,000, with more aggressive bears aiming for major swing low zones near $65,000.
Short Stop Loss: Tight stop loss should be placed just above local highs, at $117,000-$120,000, to guard against unexpected breakouts to new highs.
Risk/Reward: Consider a minimum 2:1 ratio, moving stops to break-even if there is rapid price rejection and MACD follows through with sustained bearish momentum.
This analysis contextualizes both the technical signals and price action in terms understandable to traders and readers. Historical patterns suggest a strong likelihood that “attention” has peaked, reinforcing the probability that the next major move for BTC will be corrective rather than impulsive to the upside.
Always use position sizing and risk management tailored to each portfolio’s size and goals.
BTCUSD – H1 OutlookPrice recently gave a BOS to the upside, shifting short-term order flow bullish. However, after BOS, price is retracing back into the demand zone (112,100 – 111,600) which is now the key decision point.
🔹 Bullish Scenario (Long Bias)
If the demand zone holds and confirms with bullish price action, we can expect continuation upward with liquidity targets sitting above 115,200. This would validate the BOS as a true shift in structure with demand acting as support.
BTC Analysis TodayAs we’ve maintained all this time, BTC dipped to around 115500 at one point today and that was a great time to buy. Right after the pullback, it rebounded and started rising. the overall upward trend holds, and support level strong.
Buy 115000 - 115500
TP 116000 -116500 - 117000
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 19, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the previous trading session, the Bitcoin market exhibited a modest increase and completed Inner Coin Rally 117700. Consequently, the cryptocurrency is currently experiencing a resumption of the intermediate Primary Down-Trend rebound, with the primary target identified as Mean Support at 114500. Additional support levels are defined at 111500 and 108300, respectively.
Current analysis suggests a slight probability that the Intermediate Primary Rebound could facilitate a retest of the Outer Coin Rally at 124500, via the Key Resistance established at 123500.
However, it is critical to acknowledge that the prevailing Bitcoin market sentiment reflects a continuing downtrend. Whereas upon the conclusion of the Primary Down-Trend, the Outer Coin Dip at 102500, it is anticipated that Bitcoin will resume its upward trend.