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BTCUSDT.3S trade ideas

Trigger: 4h-close below 121.0–121.2kWhat does it mean now 1. The trend is very strong (ADX>60, CMF≫0, OBV-z≫0) — the bulls are in control. 2. But we are high above the VWAP/VAH and slightly above the KC-Upper, RSI≈74 / MFI≈80 + a series of bearish divergences → the risk of a rotation to the averages/HVN is increased. 3. OI is neutral → up-movement is held, but without a pronounced influx of new positions (less "fuel" for immediate acceleration). ⸻ Key levels Resistance: 123 858 (Donch-High 20/55) → 124 157 (BB-Upper) → aVWAP swing high ~122,490 as the nearest magnet during an impulse (locally slightly lower than the current one). Supports: 121,000–121,200 (top VAH 120,964 + local LVN ~120.7–121.2k) → 119,686 (KC-Mid ≈ EMA20) / 119,743 (BB-Mid) → 118,969 (Donch-Mid20) → 117,534 (KC-Low) → deeper 111 389 (POC). HVN-clusters: 111.4–115.9k (magnet during deep correction). LVN thin: 118.3k / 119.1k / 120.7k / 121.2–123.4k — zones for "accelerations" during breakthroughs. ⸻ Scenarios and triggers (not financial advice) A) Basic - rotation to the average/VAH with attempts to hold up the uptrend. Why basic: overbought (RSI/MFI), z(Price−VWAP)~+2σ, exit above VAH, a series of bearish divergences; at the same time, the trend is strong (ADX, CMF), i.e. the expectation is a respite/reboot, not a reversal. • Trigger: 4h-close below 121.0–121.2k (back inside value) and/or return below 120 964 (VAH), with RSI < 65, weakening of the MACD histogram. • Targets: 119.7k (KC-Mid/BB-Mid) → 118.97k (Donch-Mid20) → 117.53k (KC-Low). • Cancel: re-purchase and consolidation above 123,858. B) Continuation of the upward trend. • Trigger: holding above 121.9–122.5k and 4h-closing > 123,858 with a buffer of ≈ +0.1·ATR ≈ +110$ → > 123,970, while OBV z50 ≥ 0 and OI ROC(5) ≥ 0. • Targets: 124.16k (BB-Upper) → 125.5–126.5k (above the band) → by inertia in the LVN-corridor 121.2–123.4k, quick "stretching" is possible. • Invalidator: quick return < 122.0k. C) Sharp "blowing" (clear refusal from above). • Trigger: false exit at 123.9–124.2k with a long upper shadow, fix of bearish RSI/MFI divergences on highs, OI↑ on a red candle, MACD histogram ↓. • Targets: 121.2k → 119.7k → 117.5k; if weak, test 118.3k / 119.1k (LVN-pockets — straits can be fast). ⸻ Tactics (example of logic) • Reversal long: zones 121.2k / 120.96k / 119.7k at signs of demand (CMF ≥ 0, candle reaction, OBV z50 is held ≥ 0). Targets: 122.5k → 123.9k; stop - under the local LVN (e.g. < 120.7k), buffer ~0.5×ATR ≈ 550$. • Impulse long: after fixing > 123,970. Partial fixes at 124.16k and 125.5–126.5k; trail on EMA20/KC-Mid. • Contra-trend short: only when 123.9–124.2k is rejected + confirmed divergences (RSI/MFI/OBV) and MACD weakening. Targets: 121.2k → 119.7k → 117.5k; stop at 124.3–124.6k. ⸻ Briefly: what to expect The trend is strong, but the market is overbought and stretched to VWAP/VAH/KC-Upper with a series of bearish divergences. I expect a rotation to 121.2k → 119.7k to reset the momentum. • If we get above 123,970, we can go to 124.2k → 125.5–126.5k. • If we stay below 121.0–121.2k and VAH — a deeper correction to 119.7k → 117.5k is likely; only breaking through these zones opens the way to POC ~111.4k (this is unlikely at the current ADX/CMF).
by AlexeyBullBear0297
Expanding Flat Elliot wave countBitcoin may be approaching a significant macro top, with multiple technical indicators aligning to signal a potential reversal and a subsequent major corrective wave. Key Projections: Potential Top Formation: The current price action is forming what appears to be the peak of a corrective Wave (B), with a potential top range between $109,000 and $150,000. Projected Corrective Target: Following the completion of Wave (B), a significant downward move, labeled as Wave (C), is anticipated. This corrective wave targets the $45,000 - $67,000 price zone. Timeline: The entire corrective structure, from the formation of the top to the potential bottom of Wave (C), is projected to unfold by approximately September 2026. Elliott Wave Structure: The primary thesis is based on an Elliott Wave count. The chart indicates the completion of a five-wave impulse cycle, and the market is now in a larger A-B-C corrective pattern. The current price is likely forming the peak of the B-wave. Fibonacci Confluence: There is a strong confluence of Fibonacci extension levels at the potential top. The peak of the current Wave (B) is precisely testing the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, a critical ratio often associated with the termination of corrective waves. Significant Bearish Divergence (Crucial Point): This is one of the most compelling signals on the chart.While the price is making higher highs (from the peak of wave (5) to the peak of wave (B)).Both the RSI and the MACD indicators are showing lower highs. This is a classic, multi-indicator bearish divergence on a high timeframe (weekly), indicating that the upward momentum is weakening significantly and a trend reversal is becoming more likely.
Short
by maayan_tiran
BTCUSDT Bullish Rebound Setup From Support RetestTrade Setup Analysis Pair: BTCUSDT Timeframe: 1D (Daily) Position Type: Long (Buy) Entry Point: 115,554.94 Positioned exactly between the stop loss and take profit zones, providing an optimal entry after a pullback to support. Stop Loss (SL): 112,693.78 Placed below the key support zone to limit downside risk. Risk is approximately -2.48% from entry. Take Profit (TP): 124,843.07 Target set at a recent swing high, offering a potential upside of around +8.04% from entry. Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.25 A favorable setup offering more than triple the potential reward compared to the risk. Technical Outlook: BTCUSDT experienced a sharp pullback after testing highs, now retesting a support level that aligns with previous consolidation. This could present a buying opportunity if bullish momentum resumes. Bullish Scenario: Holding above 115,554.94 and forming higher lows could trigger a rally toward 124,843.07. Bearish Invalidation: A break below 112,693.78 would invalidate the setup and may open the door to further downside. Summary: This setup targets a rebound from support with a clearly defined stop loss and a strong reward potential, making it suitable for swing traders seeking favorable R/R conditions.
Long
by NakamotoZzzz
BTC 4H – Rejection at 114k, Eyes on 113k SupportBitcoin bounced strongly from the 109k demand zone, but faced a clear rejection at the 114k resistance. 🔹 Current 4H Outlook: Price is testing 113k support after the pullback. Losing 113k could trigger a deeper move toward 111k → 109k demand zone. If bulls reclaim 114k and hold, upside targets are 116k → 118k. 📊 Scenarios: ✅ Bullish: Hold above 113k and reclaim 114k → continuation to 116k – 118k. ❌ Bearish: Break below 113k → correction down to 111k and possibly 109k demand zone. 🎯 Key Levels: Supports: 113k / 111k / 109k Resistances: 114k / 116k / 118k ⚡️ 113k is the key level to watch — decision point for the next move.
by Mo_Alhameli
Bitcoin Recovery: Key Levels to Watch This WeekIn the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has shown a solid recovery — but will it continue? This week’s pivot point is at 112,054 , while the risk level is 110,307 . If that breaks, there’s a high probability of seeing a move down toward 105K (explained in more detail in the video idea). At the moment, the price is above key moving averages. The last breakout happened on increased volume, and as long as momentum holds, the outlook remains bullish. Still, the price can’t rise forever, so a local correction would be logical, with the support zone for such a move in the 111,400 – 110,700 range. Targets for this week: 114,636 , 116,231 , and 118,813 .
by trading_mura
BTC 1H Short Trade IdeaFirst confluence is the 1H FVG, but the candle that created it had no real volume, which makes me see it as weak continuation and a potential rejection area. The 4H trendline has been respected multiple times but also broken enough that it’s losing strength, even though it hasn’t fully given way yet. There’s also an unfilled 1H bearish FVG that lines up as a clear downside target if structure starts breaking down. Both 1H trendlines are still trending upward, but if they give way, momentum flips quickly. Support on the 1H is the main level I’m watching once that fails, it opens up a deeper sweep into lower liquidity zones. Confluences • 1H bearish FVG unfilled → downside target • 1H support → break level • 1H bullish FVG → rejection zone • 4H TL → weakening • Deeper liquidity zone → lower target Bias: I’m short here. Watching for rejection off the 1H imbalance and targeting the unfilled bearish FVG and lower liquidity. A clean hold above structure would invalidate.
Short
by jonah1111
BTC to go Parabolic to $333K, ~100 oz Gold by EOY 2025 Gold and Bitcoin are both valuable hard assets and from my observation, the Bitcoin chart to Gold is much better predictable than it's price to USD. The reason might be because Gold holds it's purchasing power over time through the history, and in fact it is the base line for the purchasing power, but Dollar depends on how much it gets printed and cannot be reliably predicted. That's why when you look at BTC/Gold chart, most of the times you see exact double tops or exact double bottoms. I was predicting BTC would get to $100K USD when it hits it's previous top to Gold (37 oz) and so I was predicting about 8 month before it happens that BTC will be $100K when Gold is 2650 and it happened. I was surprised myself that it held true. Looking into Gold price history, we can reliably say that Gold will not stop here and will march to $8000 within couple of years. However I think it has hit it's top for the year, or max $4000 will be the 2025 top. Then when Gold pulls back, BTC will get the chance to go parabolic, and has it's last rise of this bull market, and I expect it should take BTC to near 100 oz Gold. So if we want to put all together, Gold = 3350 where it pulls back and BTC= 100 oz = $335,000. I know the Bitcoin whales are playful sometimes, so we might get into $333,333 per BTC. I remember in Nov 2013 everyone was talking about bitcoin flipping gold (1 BTC getting to 1 oz Gold) and well, it didn't happen at that time and it had to come back in 2017, but it got close enough. We might have the same kind of situation here so starting to drop anywhere from $270k to $330k might be what we get. I don't publish many analysis's on TV, but I thought I'd put this here, it might get me famous ;)
Long
by Mohandes
28/09/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $115,537.51 Last weeks low: $108,606.86 Midpoint: $112,072.19 As BTC continued to trend down post FOMC the key HTF level of $108,500, after some chop at this level a late rally on Sunday has pushed BTC back to the Midpoint of the range for this week. As September comes to a close we are at the point where banks window dress their balance sheets by de-risking going into Q4. Banks taking cash out of the market to appear there is less risk and more liquid to hide their true risk over the quarter. This lowers liquidity and for this reason I do not expect the bulls to be out of the woods yet and the weekly low ($108k) could be under attack again before the week closes. The story is the same for much of the altcoin market, after continued downtrend majors are bouncing off key HTF S/R levels but conviction is still low due to quarter end. This week I am looking at how BTC finishes the week once the month/quarter end is out of the way. If their is renewed optimism October. In terms of seasonality October has an average return rate of 21.89% since 2019. Should price break below weekly low the bullish HTF trend would be questioned and would open the door to a deeper correction. With the 4-year cycle predicted to end in late October there would be huge talk of the cycle repeating and the bear market beginning. Good luck this week everybody!
by ProR35
BTC - 1D Elliott Wave Analysis - 28.09.25Welcome! Enjoy the Analysis and read carefully ;) We did some adjustments and changes to the counts which do not affect the short term analyses and counts by much. We assume that the last ATH was the end of a Wave 3 in blue and we are now looking for another Wave 4 into Wave 5. The Wave 4 support area is between the 0.236 FIB at 113187.3 USD and the 0.5 FIB at 101704.4 USD. Technically we could go a bit lower but preferably we do not break the 0.618 FIB at 96955.9 USD substantial. We count the blue Wave 4 as an WXY in red of which we finished Wave W and most likely Wave X and currently we are forming Wave Y as an ABC. We have a yellow ABC which theoretically could be the whole Wave Y but it seems a bit shallow in time and regarding price we would like to see another low for that scenario. For that reason we also have a red ABC on the chart which would be the extended correction of Y in this case the yellow ABC would be only the red Wave A of the extended correction. If the yellow C goes lower the next targets for it would be the 1 to 1 FIB at 107189.9 USD and then the 1.382 FIB at 104733.8 USD. The Wave B resistance area would be between the 0.382 FIB at 112045.6 USD and the 0.886 FIB at 116799.6 USD. Be aware that B Waves are hard to predict. The target for the Wave Y is the 0.618 FIB at 107448.1 USD which is in confluence with the 1 to 1 FIB target of the yellow Wave C as well as the 0.382 FIB of the support area. The next target would be the 1 to 1 FIB at 101496.5 USD which is at confluence with the 0.5 FIB of the support area. Thanks for reading. NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Long
by KanashimiBro
Bitcoin Setup: Eyeing CME Gap at $113KBitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is currently trading in a Heavy Support zone($112,000-$105,800) and near the Support zone($110,920-$109,900), Support lines, Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($110,430-$109,660). In terms of Elliott Wave theory, Bitcoin seems to have completed a microwave 5, the reason for today's drop was the correction in the SPX500 index( SP:SPX ) and the release of US indices(Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims). Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys. I expect Bitcoin to move back above 100_EMA(Daily) because the breakout volume was not enough, and attack the Resistance lines. If the Resistance lines are broken we can expect the CME Gap($113,380-$113,275) to fill. First Target: $112,600 Second Target: $113,280 Stop Loss(SL): $109,280 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $114,866-$113,720 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
10
Bitcoin Liquidity GrabBitcoin came back into discount pricing (between the swing low and swing high), and it looks like it is still waiting for the next catalyst for the next leg up. We are currently still in the weekly imbalance, which a lot of times will act as a demand zone. Before we can take a long position, we need to clear the "bump in the road" — or in this case, liquidity. I will wait for price to take out the liquidity under the equal lows around 107.2k, and then I’ll wait for a CHoCH on the 1H–4H before looking for a long trade. Happy trading,
Long
by Fortis_FX