incoming Mark Down ? if you study the USDT.D we have a possible retest off the double bottom at 3.98 (possible Wickoff reversal) + we have big huge fair value gap around 7%
if you study XAU-BTC (TV) we have also a possible Wickoff reversal with that clean retest of the last double bottom.
When I check the cluster of liquidity on BTC we have fuel to start the Mark down.
Remember that the recent drop at 107k 98k and 74k could have strategically made to have a cost efficiency in the next market correction with those daily liquidation pool from the Long. (sell order)
Supports are 100k; 89k and 79k
BTCUSDT.3S trade ideas
BTC – Ascending Channel in Play📆 On the Daily timeframe, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is moving inside an ascending channel between 109,600 – 117,800 – 125,000+ 📈
Price is currently facing rejection at the midline resistance — a common area where momentum often pauses before either resuming upward or rotating back to support. Holding this zone or breaking through it will likely define the next directional move.
👀 Watch this level closely — confirmation here can set the tone for BTC’s next swing.
Not financial advice.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
BTC/USDT – Bullish Re-Test SetupPrice just tested $115.3K support and bounced hard — now eyeing $117K resistance.
✅ Trade Condition:
Close above $115.6K on 4H → Confirm bullish reversal.
Otherwise Price will head lower.
🎯 Target: $117,000 → $117,500
🛑 SL: Below $115,400
🔁 Strong bounce from base = momentum build
This is a classic support-to-resistance move. Watch for confirmation — no fakeouts.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #DayTrading #Breakout
BTC and correction Bitcoin entered a price correction and after seeing the range ahead, I expect to buy and in this move I expect the risk-free previous purchases to be activated with a medium-term view and I will enter the purchase at cheaper prices.
In every market move, before paying full attention to the analyses of others and prominent people, only pay attention to the reality of the market and the price trend.
Preserving capital is much more important than making profits.
Be with me and grow your account, slowly and steadily.
Boost me and introduce me to your friends so that everyone can profit together.
Bitcoin’s ascent toward establishing a new high resistanceBitcoin’s slow ascent toward establishing a new high has continually faced significant resistance over the past few weeks, leaving the market uncertain about its future trajectory.
Technically: The market is forming an uptrend within a broader bullish structure, as reflected on the charts. However, during this consolidation phase, Bitcoin remains under pressure from bears. This has resulted in a false breakdown of the consolidation range, while price action continues to approach the key resistance level at 122K.
You may find more details in the chart.
Trade wisely best of Luck.
Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Support.
BTC 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 44😃 Hey , how's it going ? Come over here — Winter got something for you!
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-Hour timeframe.
👀 On the 1-hour timeframe for Bitcoin, after testing the $115,123 support level, price entered a ranging zone during the holiday session. A breakout above or below this range could give us a long or short setup. Although Bitcoin was expected to make a strong upward move (which it did), it then faced seller pressure.
🧮 Looking at the RSI oscillator, BTC is consolidating around the 50 zone and is now close to the key 40 support level. Losing this level could shift momentum toward selling. On the upside, the 70 zone remains important: if RSI breaks above it, Bitcoin can enter overbought territory and push higher.
🕯 Currently, candle size and volume remain in range, so we’ll need to wait for the new weekly open to see where Bitcoin decides to move.
🧠 In my view, it’s better not to take a position directly on BTC. As mentioned earlier, focusing on altcoins could be more profitable — if Bitcoin corrects, we can still catch strong entries on alts.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
BTCUSDT 1WBitcoin is moving inside an uptrend channel and just hit the top. So we might see a short-term pullback before it gears up for a bigger move and possibly a breakout.
With last week’s rate cut — and the expectation that more cuts could follow in the coming months — the bigger picture still looks bullish for Bitcoin, giving it room for more upside.
As you can see on the chart, every time we had a correction, the Fibonacci retracement zones worked perfectly as support. Chances are, this time won’t be any different.
$BTC Sunday Update Nothing has changed, structure still intactCRYPTOCAP:BTC Sunday Update
Nothing has changed, structure still intact I’m still holding my short, staying patient for the lower targets ahead. If BTC makes a push into 120, 125K, that’s where I’ll load more. My downside map stays the same: 105K → 100K → 95K → 90K. Altcoin pumps look like nothing more than liquidity traps set by market makers before the real drop unfolds.
BTCUSDT next PUSH?From weakly to 4H, i am seeing an upward move, and the price has taken support at the daily trendline.
All the blue levels are 4h levels. if you check price on weekly price has taken the liquidity from last HL. Only Daily also price is moving slowly and steadily but upwards.
On 4H price is a bit in sideways but above the local support level.
My expectation - price can take liquidity from support below and and expecting an upside move to create a new high. takes all the liquidity and may be drop sharply or continue its upwads as rate cut expects more and more.
You See the Signals, So Why Are You Still Losing Money?The Crypto Conundrum: You See the Signals, So Why Are You Still Losing Money?
Every morning, thousands of traders boot up their rigs. Their screens light up with flashing RSI, MACD, and moving averages. Crypto Twitter is buzzing with analysts calling the next big move. All the information you could ever want is right at your fingertips. So why, by the end of the week, is your account balance smaller than when you started?
Let’s get one thing straight: the problem isn’t the indicators or the analysts. The problem is the "wetware"—the trader sitting in the chair.
You’re not losing because the signals are wrong. You’re losing because of how you react to them. Let's break down the real reasons your account is bleeding.
Reason #1: Psychology Trumps Logic. Every Single Time.
This is the #1 account killer. The market is an arena ruled by the twin demons of Fear and Greed. Your brilliant technical analysis is just a spectator.
FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) – The Rocket Ship Trap
The Scene: Some altcoin, let's call it $WAGMI, has pumped 30% in an hour. Every indicator is screaming "overbought." Analysts are saying the news is already priced in. But all you see is a giant green candle. Your brain screams, "What if this thing 100x's? I gotta get in on this rocket ship!"
The Action: You ape in at the top.
The Result: The early buyers start taking profits, and the price nosedives. You're left holding the bag, wondering what went wrong and blaming "market manipulation."
The Mistake: You let an emotional impulse override every logical signal in front of you.
FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) – The Paper Hands Plague
The Scene: You entered a trade following your rules perfectly. The price bounced off a key support level, and the RSI showed a bullish divergence. But an hour later, the market dips slightly, and you're down 2%. A vague headline about crypto regulation in some far-off country flashes across your feed.
The Action: Panic. You slam the "close position" button to "cut your losses before it gets worse."
The Result: A few hours later, the price reverses and rips upward, hitting the exact target you originally set for a 15% gain.
The Mistake: You abandoned your own system because you got spooked by market "noise."
Reason #2: You Have No System. You Have a Gambling Habit.
An indicator signal isn't a magic bullet; it's just one piece of the puzzle.
"Indicator Soup"
The Scene: Your chart is a mess. You’ve got RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, and the Ichimoku Cloud all layered on top of each other. One says buy, another says sell, and a third is neutral.
The Action: You either freeze up from "paralysis by analysis" or, even worse, you cherry-pick the one signal that confirms what you wanted to do anyway.
The Result: A series of chaotic, random trades. Any profits are pure luck; the losses are inevitable.
The Mistake: Believing that more indicators equal more certainty. In reality, it just creates noise and confusion.
Ignoring the Stop-Loss: The Ultimate Sin
The Scene: You enter a long position based on a solid signal. But the price immediately starts moving against you. You told yourself you'd exit at a 5% loss, but as the price hits your stop level, you think, "It's gotta turn around any second now. I don't want to lock in a loss."
The Action: You delete your stop-loss, turning what was supposed to be a quick trade into a long-term "investment" you never wanted.
The Result: That 5% loss snowballs into a 20%, then 50% loss, tying up your capital and killing your account.
The Mistake: You violated the golden rule of trading: protect your capital. Hope is not a strategy.
Reason #3: You're Missing the Forest for the Trees
Indicators are useless without understanding the broader market context.
The Scene: The RSI on the 4-hour chart is deep in "oversold" territory—a classic buy signal.
The Action: You go long.
The Result: The price keeps tanking. Why? Because you failed to zoom out. On the daily chart, the asset is in a brutal, multi-month downtrend. A bullish signal in a bear market is often just a bull trap, a brief pause before the next leg down.
The Mistake: You analyzed a single timeframe in a vacuum, ignoring the primary trend.
So, What's the Fix? It's All About Strategy.
A real trading strategy isn't just "buy when the green line crosses the red one." It's a non-negotiable set of rules that dictates your every move. It must include:
Entry Trigger: Exactly what conditions must be met to open a position.
Example: The price must be above the 200-day EMA (confirming an uptrend), and MACD must have a bullish cross on the 4-hour chart.
Stop-Loss (Your Exit for a Loss): A pre-defined price point where you get out, no questions asked. This is your insurance policy against catastrophic loss.
Example: Place the stop-loss just below the most recent swing low.
Take-Profit (Your Exit for a Win): A pre-defined target where you lock in gains. Your potential profit should always be significantly larger than your potential loss (a good Risk/Reward Ratio is at least 2:1).
Example: If your stop-loss is 3% below your entry, your first take-profit target should be at least 6% above it.
A Simple, No-Nonsense Strategy Framework:
Concept: Trade with the trend, not against it.
Toolkit: The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the main trend, and basic support/resistance levels.
The Rules:
If the price is above the 200 EMA on the daily chart, you ONLY look for buys (longs).
Wait for the price to pull back to a key support level.
Enter a long position ONLY when you see a confirmation signal at that level (like a bullish engulfing candle).
Place your stop-loss below that support level. Place your take-profit at the next resistance level.
If the price is below the 200 EMA, you do the exact opposite and ONLY look for sells (shorts).
The Bottom Line
Indicators, charts, and expert analysis are just tools. In the hands of a disciplined craftsman, they can build wealth. In the hands of an emotional amateur, they’re just a way to smash your own thumb.
You lose money not because your tools are bad, but because you lack a plan, discipline, and risk management. Success in trading isn't about finding a holy grail indicator. It’s about the boring, repetitive work of following your rules, day in and day out.
The market doesn't pay you for being smart; it pays you for being disciplined. Period.
BTC/USDT – Daily OutlookBitcoin continues to show bullish momentum on the daily timeframe after a strong rebound from the major demand zone around $109K – $110K. Price has reclaimed key levels, now acting as support.
The nearest demand zone lies at $113K – $114K, which may serve as a re-entry area if retracement occurs.
As long as this zone holds, the bullish structure remains intact with upside targets toward $118K – $120K.
A breakdown below demand would weaken the outlook, exposing the lower demand zone around $109K – $110K.
Overall, BTC maintains a bullish mid-term outlook while monitoring demand zones remains crucial for confirming continuation.
Is Bitcoin Losing Momentum?On the 3-day chart, Bitcoin continues to respect its long-term ascending channel, with both the upper and lower boundaries acting as clean structural guides.
🔹 Momentum: After months of strength, momentum has slipped below the 0-line and is currently retesting it – a key pivot that often defines whether trend continuation or correction follows.
🔹 Structure: The lower boundary of the channel lines up almost perfectly with the horizontal support zone built from previous highs (around 100k–103k). This confluence makes it a natural candidate for a pullback area.
🔹 Volume: A noteworthy observation is the declining volume profile during the most recent leg higher – a potential early warning that participation is fading.
If the 100k–103k support area holds , the long-term uptrend remains intact.
But a decisive breakdown could open the door to a deeper correction.
👉 What do you think – is Bitcoin gearing up for another strong bounce off the channel, or are we on the edge of a deeper retracement?
Let’s discuss in the comments.
Disclaimer: This is a market observation, not financial advice.
Currency Wars Between Major Economies1. What is a Currency War?
A currency war (sometimes called “competitive devaluation”) occurs when countries deliberately try to devalue their own currencies in order to:
Make exports cheaper and more attractive in global markets.
Reduce the relative cost of domestic production compared to foreign competitors.
Improve trade balances by discouraging imports.
Stimulate domestic economic growth in times of slowdown.
The central idea is: a weaker currency helps exporters and supports jobs at home, but it often comes at the expense of trading partners.
However, currency wars are not always explicit. Sometimes they result from domestic monetary policies (like cutting interest rates or expanding money supply through quantitative easing) that incidentally weaken a currency. In other cases, governments openly intervene in foreign exchange markets, buying or selling large amounts of currency to influence exchange rates.
2. The Historical Roots of Currency Wars
a) The 1930s: The Great Depression and the “Beggar-Thy-Neighbor” Policies
The first widely recognized currency war took place during the Great Depression. In the 1930s, demand collapsed worldwide, unemployment skyrocketed, and countries scrambled to protect their industries.
Britain left the Gold Standard in 1931, devaluing the pound to boost exports.
The U.S. followed in 1933 under President Franklin D. Roosevelt, devaluing the dollar against gold.
Other nations like France, Germany, and Japan also adjusted their exchange rates.
This competitive devaluation became known as a “beggar-thy-neighbor” policy, where one country’s gain came at the expense of others. Instead of solving the crisis, it deepened global tensions and reduced cooperation — contributing indirectly to the geopolitical instability that led to World War II.
b) Bretton Woods and the Post-War Era
After World War II, leaders sought to prevent a repeat of destructive currency conflicts. In 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement created a system of fixed exchange rates anchored to the U.S. dollar, which itself was pegged to gold.
This system promoted stability, but it had cracks:
Countries with trade surpluses (like Germany and Japan) accumulated reserves, while deficit nations (like the U.S.) faced growing pressure.
By 1971, the U.S. under President Richard Nixon ended dollar convertibility to gold — known as the Nixon Shock.
This collapse of Bretton Woods unleashed a new era of floating exchange rates, opening the door again for currency maneuvering.
c) The Plaza Accord (1985)
One of the most famous episodes of currency coordination (and conflict) came in the 1980s. The U.S. dollar had become excessively strong, hurting American exporters and creating huge trade deficits.
In 1985, the Plaza Accord was signed by the U.S., Japan, West Germany, France, and the U.K. The agreement coordinated efforts to weaken the U.S. dollar and strengthen other currencies like the Japanese yen and German Deutsche mark.
This marked a rare moment of cooperation in a currency conflict. However, the yen’s sharp appreciation later contributed to Japan’s asset bubble and “lost decades” of economic stagnation.
3. Tools Used in Currency Wars
Major economies deploy several instruments when waging currency wars:
a) Monetary Policy
Interest Rate Cuts: Lower rates reduce returns on investments in a currency, weakening its value.
Quantitative Easing (QE): Central banks create money to buy government bonds, expanding liquidity and pushing the currency downward.
b) Direct Market Intervention
Central banks buy or sell currencies in massive volumes. For example, China has historically purchased U.S. dollars to keep the yuan weaker and boost exports.
c) Trade Policies
Tariffs, subsidies, and capital controls can indirectly pressure currency values.
d) Capital Controls
Restricting or encouraging flows of foreign capital influences currency demand.
e) Rhetorical Pressure
Leaders often use verbal intervention — statements signaling that they prefer weaker or stronger currencies — to sway markets.
4. Major Episodes of Currency Wars in the Modern Era
a) The 2008 Global Financial Crisis and “Currency War II”
After the 2008 financial meltdown, the U.S. Federal Reserve launched unprecedented quantitative easing. The massive expansion of money supply weakened the dollar, making U.S. exports more competitive.
Emerging economies, particularly Brazil, India, and China, complained that the U.S. was effectively waging a currency war. Brazil’s Finance Minister Guido Mantega famously declared in 2010 that the world was in the midst of a “currency war” triggered by U.S. policies.
Other countries responded:
Japan intervened to prevent yen appreciation.
Switzerland capped the Swiss franc’s value against the euro to protect exporters.
China maintained tight control over the yuan’s value.
b) U.S.–China Currency Tensions
The U.S. has long accused China of deliberately undervaluing its currency to gain trade advantages. By pegging the yuan to the dollar and intervening heavily in markets, China kept its exports competitive.
In 2019, during the U.S.–China trade war, the U.S. Treasury officially labeled China a “currency manipulator”.
Though the label was later removed, the tension highlighted how currency policies are deeply tied to geopolitical rivalries.
c) Eurozone and Japan in the 2010s
The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) also engaged in aggressive monetary easing. Both sought to stimulate sluggish economies and raise inflation. The result was a weaker euro and yen — moves criticized by trading partners who saw them as currency manipulation.
5. Winners and Losers in Currency Wars
Currency wars create complex outcomes:
Winners:
Exporters: A weaker currency boosts competitiveness abroad.
Industries with excess capacity: Can offload products internationally.
Countries with high unemployment: Export growth creates jobs.
Losers:
Import-dependent economies: Weaker currencies make imported goods (like oil, technology, or raw materials) more expensive.
Consumers: Face higher prices for foreign goods.
Global stability: Currency wars often fuel retaliatory trade wars.
6. The Geopolitical Dimension of Currency Wars
Currency values are not just about economics — they are tools of power.
The U.S. Dollar: As the world’s reserve currency, the dollar’s strength or weakness has global ripple effects. Dollar dominance gives the U.S. a unique ability to run deficits and still attract capital.
China’s Yuan: Beijing aims to internationalize the yuan, challenging dollar supremacy. Currency management is part of its broader geopolitical ambition.
Euro and Yen: Represent regional stability and serve as counterweights in financial markets.
Emerging Markets: Often caught in the crossfire, suffering from volatile capital flows and inflation risks when major economies manipulate currencies.
7. Are We in a Currency War Today?
As of the 2020s, elements of currency competition are visible:
Post-COVID Stimulus: Massive monetary easing in the U.S., Europe, and Japan initially weakened currencies, though inflation later forced tightening.
Dollar Strength (2022–2024): The U.S. dollar surged due to aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, putting pressure on emerging markets with dollar-denominated debt.
China’s Slowdown: China has allowed the yuan to weaken at times to support exports amid slowing domestic demand.
De-Dollarization Trends: BRICS nations and others are exploring alternatives to the dollar, signaling future battles over currency influence.
8. The Risks of Currency Wars
Currency wars may provide temporary relief for domestic economies, but they carry significant risks:
Trade Wars: Competitive devaluation often spills into tariffs and protectionism.
Inflation: Weaker currencies make imports costlier, fueling inflation.
Financial Instability: Rapid capital flight from weaker currencies can destabilize economies.
Loss of Credibility: Persistent manipulation undermines trust in a nation’s financial system.
Global Tensions: Currency disputes exacerbate geopolitical rivalries.
9. Pathways to Cooperation
While conflict is common, cooperation remains possible:
IMF Surveillance: The International Monetary Fund monitors exchange rate policies to discourage manipulation.
Currency Swap Agreements: Central banks often collaborate to provide liquidity in crises.
Multilateral Dialogues: Platforms like the G20 discuss currency issues to prevent escalation.
Global Reserve Diversification: Gradual movement toward a multipolar currency system (dollar, euro, yuan) may reduce tensions.
10. The Future of Currency Wars
Looking ahead, several themes will shape the currency battles of the future:
U.S.–China Rivalry: The yuan’s internationalization vs. dollar dominance will remain central.
Digital Currencies: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) could reshape currency competition. China is already ahead with its digital yuan.
Geopolitical Fragmentation: As regional blocs (BRICS, ASEAN, EU) strengthen, multiple currency spheres of influence may emerge.
Energy and Commodities: Countries like Russia are pushing for non-dollar trade in oil and gas, tying currencies directly to resource power.
Technology and Finance: Cryptocurrencies and fintech innovations may add another dimension to currency wars.
Conclusion
Currency wars are a recurring feature of the global economy, blending economics, politics, and power. From the Great Depression’s competitive devaluations to the modern U.S.–China rivalry, these wars reveal how deeply currencies influence trade, growth, and geopolitics.
While a weaker currency may provide short-term relief to struggling economies, the long-term costs often outweigh the gains. Inflation, financial instability, and rising tensions are frequent outcomes. True stability requires cooperation, transparency, and reforms in the global monetary system.
In the 21st century, the battlefield of currency wars is shifting. It is no longer just about exchange rates, but about digital currencies, technological control, and global influence. Whether the future brings cooperation or deeper conflict depends on how major economies balance national interests with global stability.
BTC/USDT: Bullish Leap to 122K? As the previous analysis worked exactly as predicted, BINANCE:BTCUSDT is gearing up for a bullish move on the 4-hour chart , with an entry zone between 111750-113000 near a key support and rising trendline. 🎯
The target range at 122000 aligns with the next major resistance, signaling strong upside potential. Set a stop loss on a daily close below 110000 to manage risk effectively.
Attention: The price may not hit the red box and could move upward with momentum after touching the ascending trendline. Exercise caution in managing your capital.
📝 Trade Plan:
✅ Entry Zone: 111,750 – 113,000 (support + trendline area)
❌ Stop Loss: Daily close below 110,000 to manage risk
🎯 Target: 122,000 (next major resistance)
💡 Ready for this surge? Drop your take below! 👇
BTC “Blow-off” confirmed, what’s next?Newest chart (H&S with RS near 118.7k, high 124.5k, supports 110.9k / 108.7k / 95.1k / 96.5k / 77.3–74.5k) shows we did get the blow-off extension I had at 13%. We now re-weight the next path conditional on a completed blow-off.
🎯 Short to $73K — plan, gates, and guardrails
It’s feasible only after losing: $110.9K → $108.7K → $103–101K → $96–95K
Risk guardrails (objective invalidations) 🚧
Primary invalidation: Daily close > 118.7K (your RS/supply).
Hard invalidation: Momentum HH > 120.5K and sustained bid above; expect squeeze back to 123–125K.
Trailing logic:
After 110.9K breaks → trail to entry.
After 108.7K breaks → trail to 111.0–111.5K.
After 101K breaks → trail to 105–106K.
After 95K breaks → trail to 99–100K.
Position management 🔧
Scale targets: 108.7K, 103–101K, 96–95K, 90–88K, 83–78K, 75–73K.
What would help the $73K path 📉
Clean acceptance below 95K (no immediate reclaim).
ETF flow cool-off (you’ve been tracking this) + weak spot bid during futures-led dumps.
CME term structure flattening/inversion into breakdowns.
OBV / CVD making lower lows as price ranges (distribution tells).
What would hurt it 📈
Swift 118.7K reclaim on strong spot-led buying.
Persistent positive ETF net inflows on down days.
Perp funding resetting positive while price refuses to break 108.7K.
Aligned with the post–blow-off distribution thesis. Hold the short only as long as 118.7K isn’t reclaimed and the market accepts below 110.9K → 108.7K. The hinge zone is 96–95K; lose it cleanly and $83–78K → $75–73K opens up. Manage via staged profits and a rising trailing stop so the trade can breathe on the way to $73K objective.