EUR/CAD SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
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We are now examining the EUR/CAD pair and we can see that the pair is going down locally while also being in a downtrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB lower band being nearby indicating that the pair is oversold so we can go long from the support line below and a target at 1.637 level.
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Trade ideas
EURCAD | Liquidity Draw Toward HTF Order BlockPrice remains inside a higher-time-frame bullish structure and is now retracing into the 1.60–1.61 breaker block / BC correction zone — a logical refuel area before continuation.
Above, there’s an unmitigated HTF order block at 1.68–1.70 , likely the next draw on liquidity.
That zone should be mitigated before any true macro bearish shift.
Plan
Bias: short-term bullish continuation into 1.68–1.70
Entry: confirmation from the breaker around 1.60–1.61
Stop: below 1.576 (macro invalidation)
Target: 1.68–1.70 (HTF mitigation zone)
– After mitigation, watching for bearish structure to form
The correction still has business above — the HTF OB remains unmitigated.
Let’s see if EURCAD completes the move.
EUR/CAD – 4H ChartPrice is moving into a strong support zone between 1.6198 – 1.6178.
From here, we’ll be watching closely for signals:
🔹 A potential bounce off this area, or
🔹 A push through support followed by a retest of the new resistance.
This is the zone we’re tracking for the next setup — patience until VMS signals confirm.
22.10.25 EUR/CAD DailyDaily:
We are clearly in an uptrend.
There’s a Rally-Base-Rally structure that looks original and is not a reaction to another demand zone.
4-Hour:
The Rally-Base-Rally is covered by the daily structure. The pair was stair-stepping into the supply zone and then broke through it with a big, explosive candle. This move turned the supply into a demand zone — a flip zone.
I’ve set a buy limit order. Once we reach 4R, I will move my stop loss to break-even. When the target is hit, I’ll close 75% of the position and trail the stop on the remaining 25%.
EURCAD: Retest Patiently waiting for a retest of the Daily FVG (1.61680) and if bullish, the following bullish pattern.
I like:
- Strong bullish uptrend on the daily.
- Pullback to 50EMA (not seen on this chart)
- Fall in crude oil prices
I don't like:
- Regular bearish divergence on daily TF
- A possible break of 1.61500
EURCAD - SELLThis position is already in profit, taken from the H1 swap zone within the FOTSI indicator. The CAD has demonstrated signs of strength twice now, and the EUR is currently in an overbought area. Therefore, this provides a very good confluence for a sell entry. The Take Profit (TP) target is the 50 and 100 EMAs on the H4 timeframe.
EURCAD SWING Trade Forecast
Pair: EURCAD
Direction: Long (Buy Bias)
Forecast Entry Zone: Around 1.6100 to 1.6000
Forecast Stop Loss: Below 1.5750
Forecast Take Profit 1: 1.6560
Forecast Take Profit 2: 1.7038
Expected Risk to Reward: Around 1 to 3.8/7
Timeframe: Daily (Swing Forecast)
Date: October 2025
My Outlook
I am forecasting a continuation of the bullish trend on EURCAD following the recent pullback. The pair has shown consistent strength after breaking structure to the upside, and the current correction appears to be a normal retracement rather than a trend reversal.
The key zone I am watching is between 1.6100 and 1.6000, which aligns closely with the 50 and 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement levels. This is a strong area of previous demand and also where the market last generated an impulsive bullish move.
I am expecting buyers to step back in around that zone and push the pair higher toward the next liquidity levels around 1.6560 and ultimately 1.7038, which aligns with the 100 percent extension level.
Technical View
The structure is bullish and well defined. The Break of Structure confirmed the start of a new upward leg earlier in the cycle, and since then, price has been forming higher highs and higher lows.
At the moment, price has reached a temporary resistance near 1.6360, where short term profit taking occurred. This pullback is likely to offer a new buying opportunity once price retraces deeper into the fair value region between 1.6100 and 1.6000.
The 61.8 percent retracement at 1.6006 serves as the last line of confluence before invalidation. My stop will sit safely below 1.5750, where a break would indicate a possible shift in structure and invalidate this bullish forecast.
As long as price holds above that zone, I expect the uptrend to resume with momentum.
Fundamental View
The broader macro picture currently supports a stronger euro against the Canadian dollar.
Positive drivers for this forecast:
The European Central Bank remains cautious but has signaled that interest rates will stay relatively elevated for a while, which supports the euro.
Oil prices have been slightly softer recently, which tends to weaken the Canadian dollar since CAD is closely tied to crude exports.
If risk sentiment stays stable and European economic data continues to show resilience, EURCAD could extend higher.
Possible risks to this outlook:
A strong rebound in oil prices could boost CAD and slow the bullish momentum.
Any dovish shift from the European Central Bank or weak Eurozone data could weigh on the euro.
If global risk sentiment drops and demand for the Canadian dollar increases, this could temporarily pressure the pair lower.
Despite these risks, the balance of technical and fundamental evidence supports a bullish continuation.
My Forecast Plan
My plan is to wait patiently for price to retrace toward the 1.6100 to 1.6000 demand zone. I will look for bullish confirmation such as a clear rejection or a strong engulfing candle on the four hour chart before entering long.
My first take profit level is 1.6560, which represents a key liquidity target and prior resistance zone. If momentum remains strong, I will aim for the 1.7038 area as the extended projection.
The invalidation point is clearly defined below 1.5750. A daily close under that level would indicate a structural change, and I will reassess the forecast at that point.
My Thoughts
This setup aligns perfectly with my trading principles ; clean structure, logical retracement, and a clear invalidation level. The 1.6100 to 1.6000 zone is a fair value area where I expect new accumulation to take place.
The risk to reward ratio on this forecast is solid, and I like the clarity of both technical and fundamental alignment. If the pair holds its bullish structure, this could be a strong continuation play toward 1.70 in the coming months.
As always, patience will be key. I will allow the market to pull back into my forecast zone rather than chasing price at current levels.
EURCAD: Internal to External liquidity H4 timeframe POV: After the recent higher high , price may first seek lower internal range liquidity (currently 50% level on Fib), or if after a deeper discount, possibly move lower to the bearish OB highlighted in red, where I expect support to be found and targeting old highs.
EURCAD: Long Trading Opportunity
EURCAD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long EURCAD
Entry - 1.6368
Sl - 1.6350
Tp - 1.6405
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EURCAD: Important Resistance, Short.Lets take a sight on EURCAD;
The pair have been stepping up in a bullish trend, with a circle of higher highs and lows. in view of this complex the price is moving down after respecting the resistance region.
Meanwhile we anticipate a sell at this point, with a target toward 1.6237 as the next possible support.
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EUR/CAD Hits 16-Year HighEUR/CAD Hits 16-Year High
Charts show that the euro strengthened against the Canadian dollar on Thursday, with the pair climbing above 1.6460 for the first time since spring 2009, when the world was still reeling from the global financial crisis.
The current weakness of the Canadian dollar is being influenced by several factors:
→ Trade relations with the United States – according to media reports, some Canadian industries such as steel and automotive manufacturing are facing competitive disadvantages under the current agreement.
→ Oil prices have fallen to a five-month low, partly due to expectations surrounding a potential meeting between the US and Russian presidents. As we noted on 13 October, the XTI/USD exchange rate could drift towards $55 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the euro has benefited from the softening of the US dollar. Notably, the DXY index has turned lower from a key resistance level — the upper boundary of the channel identified in our 9 October analysis.
However, an examination of the EUR/CAD chart suggests that the current upward momentum may be losing steam.
Technical Analysis of the EUR/CAD Chart
Price movements — with key turning points shown in bold — outline a rising channel that has remained relevant since August.
The bearish case rests on the following factors:
→ The pair has reached the upper boundary of the channel, which has repeatedly acted as strong resistance and may do so again.
→ The sharp mid-October rally pushed the RSI indicator into extreme overbought territory.
On the other hand, price action continues to reflect strong demand, as seen in the clean breakout above the previous peak near 1.6400, which occurred on a wide bullish candle with minimal pullback.
In these conditions, it is reasonable to assume that:
→ After a 1.6% rise in seven days, some long holders may start taking profits, leading to consolidation near the upper boundary of the channel;
→ If a correction from the upper channel line develops, it is likely to be shallow, as bullish activity could re-emerge around the median line, reinforced by the former resistance at 1.6400.
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