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CADJPY trade ideas

CADJPY Momentum Stalls, Sellers Look for ControlCADJPY has tested the 107.40 zone but failed to sustain a breakout, suggesting fading bullish momentum. With oil prices struggling to find direction and the yen attempting to stabilize after weeks of weakness, sellers are circling. The chart structure points to a potential corrective leg lower if the pair breaks under near-term support. Current Bias Bearish – the pair shows signs of exhaustion near resistance, with downside levels now in focus. Key Fundamental Drivers Bank of Japan: Still accommodative, but the risk of verbal intervention increases as yen weakness deepens. Bank of Canada: Expected to lean dovish after weak GDP and labor data, leaving CAD vulnerable. Oil Prices: CAD remains tied to energy performance; lower oil tends to weaken CAD. Macro Context Interest Rates: BoC rate cut bets have increased, while BoJ policy remains ultra-loose, although rising JGB yields may offer some yen support. Growth Trends: Canadian economy shows signs of stagflation risk (weak growth, sticky inflation), reducing CAD’s appeal. Commodity Flows: Oil volatility directly impacts CADJPY, with recent weakness adding to pressure. Geopolitics: Energy trade flows and Middle East tensions could ripple into oil and CAD sentiment. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp rebound in oil prices or BoJ hesitation to tolerate further yen strength could invalidate the bearish case. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada GDP and inflation reports BoJ commentary/intervention signals OPEC-related oil output headlines Leader/Lagger Dynamics CADJPY often acts as a lagger, following moves in oil and broader yen crosses like USDJPY and EURJPY. Watch USDJPY for early signals on yen direction and oil prices for CAD momentum. Key Levels Support Levels: 106.45, 105.95, 104.98 Resistance Levels: 107.44, 108.05 Stop Loss (SL): 108.05 (above recent highs) Take Profit (TP): 106.45 (first target), 105.95 (secondary target), 104.98 (extended target) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints CADJPY carries a bearish bias as resistance holds at 107.40–108.00 and sellers push for a move toward 106.45 and below. Stop loss sits just above 108.05 to protect against false breakouts, while take profit levels extend toward 105.95 and 104.98. The pair remains heavily influenced by oil and yen sentiment, making it more of a lagger than a leader. Watch oil headlines and BoJ remarks closely, as they could shift momentum quickly.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
CADJPY: Simple Trading IdeaCADJPY: Simple Trading Idea Price is currently moving up and just broke through a strong support zone near 107.10 A possible pullback may happen near 107.10, where the price might form a bullish continuation pattern. CADJPY could continue toward the first target at 107.90 and then toward the second target at 108.71. Key Levels: Support Zone: Around 107.10 First Target: 107.92 Second Target: 108.71 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by KlejdiCuni
3
CADJPY Breakdown Incoming? Specs Selling CAD, Buying JPY1. Retail Sentiment 68% long vs 32% short → The majority of retail traders are positioned long. From a contrarian perspective, this increases the risk of a downside move to flush out these long positions. 2. Seasonality JPY (September): historically tends to appreciate from mid-month onward. CAD (September): historically weak, with flat to negative performance. Seasonal Bias: favors strong JPY / weak CAD → bearish CADJPY outlook. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) CAD (Sept 16, 2025): Non-commercials: still heavily net short (128k short vs 21k long). Commercials: strong long exposure (218k), but speculative flows remain bearish. Bias: CAD continues to be sold by speculators → bearish pressure. JPY (Sept 16, 2025): Non-commercials: net long (161k long vs 100k short). Commercials: strong shorts (163k), as usual for hedging. Bias: speculators are accumulating JPY longs, reinforcing strength. 👉 COT View = Weak CAD, Strong JPY → Bearish confirmation for CADJPY. 4. Technical Analysis Current price: 106.77, trading inside the daily demand zone (106.50–106.00). Structure: Well-defined descending channel. Multiple bounces in the 106.00–106.20 area → key support zone. RSI neutral, not yet oversold. Scenarios: Scenario A (probable): break below 106.20 → extension towards 105.50, then 104.80 (swing low zone). Scenario B (alternative): technical bounce from demand (106.20–106.00) → recovery towards 107.80/108.00 (weekly supply). ✅ Conclusion: CADJPY shows a bearish setup supported by COT, seasonality, and contrarian sentiment. The technicals highlight a descending channel with potential breakdown below 106.00. Best setups: short on pullbacks with targets at 105.50–105.00.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Cadjpy shortEntry Zone (Supply Area): Around 107.59 – 108.08 (highlighted grey box). Price is expected to react bearish from this resistance zone. Stop Loss: Just above 108.08 (top of the supply zone). This protects against a breakout continuation. Target Zone: Around 106.00 – 105.95 (lower green box). This is the projected support area. 📉 Trade Idea Bias: Bearish (short). The red arrow suggests that price may reject from the supply zone and head lower. Risk-to-reward (RRR) looks favorable, roughly 1:2. 🧠 Technical Rationale 1. Supply Zone Rejection: Price is retesting a prior resistance zone where sellers have stepped in before. 2. Trend Structure: On the 4H chart, CAD/JPY is in a corrective rally after a bearish move — this could be a retracement before continuation down. 3. Candlestick Behavior: If bearish rejection candles (e.g., wicks, engulfing) form near 107.80 – 108.00, it strengthens the short bias.
Short
by vicofalltrade
CAD-JPY Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! CADJPY rejects a horizontal supply area after a fakeout sweep, signaling SMC distribution. Bears aim to drive price lower into liquidity resting near 107.27. Time Frame 2H. ------------------- Stop Loss: 107.616 Take Profit: 107.271 Entry: 107.435 Time Frame: 2H ------------------- Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
SMC Concept: Defining the Trading Range (Step 1) On CADJPYCAD/JPY, 4H Timeframe (as demonstrated) This post outlines the first step in a methodology focused on identifying key market structure levels. The goal is to objectively define a trading range, using CAD/JPY as the example. The Process: Of a bullish Structure Identify the range Low: Locate the last retracement from the previous high, the low is deepest price level retraced to. Find the Inducement: Mark the low of the most recent pullback (retracement) before the price made a new high. Wait for Confirmation: The high is only confirmed once price returns to hit this inducement level. This validates the high as an official range boundary. A break of the confirmed high is a break of structure (BOS). A break of the confirmed low suggests a change of character (CHoCH), shifting sentiment. This is the foundational step for identifying future points of interest. The next step involves plotting POIs based on this confirmed range. This methodology is based on one that I learned from someone else on Youtube, but I have changed many details to suit my style. As a thank you note, I have referred to this person on other paltforms, but unfortunately, I don't think I can do this here as I might be violating this platform's rules. I will be posting the next steps that would lead to deciding on a trading position on step by step basis. I am already making videos but I might be using this platforms video option for later posts.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
CADJPY Sellers Target Key Support as Momentum FadesCADJPY has slipped after failing to sustain momentum above the 107 handle, and the price action now leans toward renewed downside pressure. The chart structure shows repeated rejections and lower highs forming, which opens the door for a deeper pullback. With oil prices struggling to hold gains and JPY catching periodic safe-haven bids, this cross looks vulnerable to further declines. Current Bias Bearish – CADJPY is showing weakness with sellers eyeing lower support levels. Key Fundamental Drivers CAD: Weak Canadian labor market data and rising BoC rate cut expectations pressure CAD. Oil prices remain soft, removing an important support pillar. JPY: The yen continues to benefit from safe-haven demand, especially during global risk-off waves and BoJ’s gradual steps toward yield control adjustments. Yield spreads: Narrowing spreads between CAD and JPY rates reduce CADJPY’s carry appeal. Macro Context Interest rates: The BoC is leaning dovish after weak jobs and growth numbers, while the BoJ’s cautious shift away from ultra-loose policy provides structural support to the yen. Growth trends: Canada faces slowing growth amid weaker domestic demand, while Japan’s growth remains modest but steady. Commodities: Oil weakness weighs on CAD. Geopolitical: Risk-off events (tariff disputes, Middle East tensions) tend to favor JPY strength, amplifying CADJPY downside. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp recovery in oil prices or a stronger-than-expected Canadian economic release could lift CAD and cap downside momentum in this pair. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada CPI and retail sales for confirmation of BoC’s dovish outlook. BoJ policy commentary for clarity on yield control and inflation stance. Leader/Lagger Dynamics CADJPY tends to act as a lagger, often following broader risk sentiment and oil price movements. It also reacts to USDJPY moves, meaning JPY flows largely set the pace. Key Levels Support Levels: 105.95, 104.98 Resistance Levels: 106.93, 107.54 Stop Loss (SL): 107.54 (above resistance zone) Take Profit (TP): 104.98 (major support) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints CADJPY bias is bearish, with SL set at 107.54 and TP aimed at 104.98. Oil weakness, dovish BoC expectations, and resilient JPY flows all lean in favor of further downside. The key watchpoints are Canada’s CPI/retail sales and BoJ commentary. Unless oil rebounds strongly, sellers are likely to stay in control, with price action favoring a test of 105.95 and potentially 104.98.
Short
by ultreosforex
2
CADJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for CADJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 107.266. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 106.211 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
CADJPY On The Rise! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the CADJPY next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 107.22 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 107.37 My Stop Loss - 107.13 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1