US Dollar Index (DXY) 4-Hour Chart4-hour chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY) from CAPITALCOM. The chart shows the price movement of the DXY from early July to early September. The current price is 98.131 with a 0.28% increase. The chart features a candlestick pattern with green (upward movement) and red (downward movement) bars. A sell signal is indicated at 98.132, and a buy signal is at 98.186. The chart also includes highlighted zones (red and green rectangles) indicating potential trading ranges or areas of interest between approximately 98.621 and 97.379.
DXY trade ideas
US Dollar Index situationThe dollar was already in decline, and with today’s news, it dropped even further. For tomorrow, there’s no significant news on Forex Factory until Wednesday. The likelihood of the dollar bouncing from this level is quite low, and it’s more likely to drop to 97, form a range until Wednesday, and then possibly rebound on positive news. However, if Wednesday’s news is also negative for the dollar, we could see a further decline.
USD Index trading north of support ahead of CPI dataThe US Dollar (USD) Index recently nudged above 3M resistance at 98.33, which could now offer price support. Overhead shows resistance at 99.38, with any break here potentially opening the door to highs of 100.23, and notable 1Y resistance at 101.43. Failing to hold higher, nevertheless, shines light on a 6M support from 97.39 and a 1M support of 96.80.
Regarding the trend direction, the USD has been lower since the beginning of the year, and while there are early signs of an uptrend, the 3M resistance from 99.38 will likely be key. If buyers manage to maintain a position above this resistance, an uptrend may ensue, while defending the base could eventually send the USD to fresh year-to-date lows.
Written by the FP Markets Research Team
US Dollar Index Analysis (DXY)The US Dollar Index is currently moving sideways, awaiting today’s CPI report.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below 98.45 and holds under this level, the decline could extend toward 98.00.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
If the price rises again and breaks above 98.70, holding above it, we may see a retest of the 99.00 resistance level, which is a key short-term pivot.
DXY Detailed Analysis - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 98.50, just below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (98.68) after breaking out from a minor descending channel, signaling a potential shift toward bullish momentum.
- Prices are now expected to test immediate resistance at 98.85, with further upside targets at 99.05 (38.2% Fib) and 99.25 if momentum sustains.
- Bollinger Bands are beginning to expand, and the RSI has recovered to 53, suggesting improving buying pressure but still room before entering overbought territory.
- On the downside, 98.31 (61.8% Fib) and 97.95 (lower Bollinger Band) remain key supports to watch.
- Traders awaiting the crucial US CPI and Core CPI data later today, volatility could spike sharply; a stronger-than-expected print may push DXY toward the 99.00–99.25 zone, while a softer reading risks a pullback toward 98.30 or lower.
BTC vs DXY: BTC is going for another topAs we can seen from the chart, BITGET:BTCUSDT and TVC:DXY has a reverse correlation. A bottom for DXY means a top for BTC. From 3 Months timeframe perspective, we can see that we are close to the top of Bitcoin, which is potentially happen in the middle of Q4 2025.
Continuation of the downtrend?As long as the Dollar Index can’t hold above 99, I think it will remain in a downtrend.
However, we have important news this week that might help the dollar turn bullish, and if the news comes out negative, we could see an even steeper drop.
By the way, what’s with that huge shadow? 🤔🤔
DXY: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 98.220 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 98.105 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Bearish drop?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot which is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.64
1st Support: 97.11
1st Resistance: 100.20
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY 4Hour TF - August 10th, 2025🟦 DXY 4H Analysis
📅 August 10, 2025
Top-Down Trend Bias:
• Monthly – Bearish
• Weekly – Bearish
• Daily – Bullish
• 4H – Bearish
The Dollar Index is consolidating near the 98.00 support zone after a sustained downtrend on the higher timeframes. Daily shows some bullish relief, but 4H remains under short-term pressure.
🔍 Key Zone: 98.00
This level is a critical decision point, acting as current support and aligning with a trendline from previous swing lows. A break or bounce here will likely set the tone for the next move.
✅ Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (Blue Path)
If price holds above 98.00 and breaks above the current pattern
Look for continuation into 98.75
Extended target: 99.25 resistance
This would be a countertrend move on the higher timeframes but aligns with the daily bullish structure.
⚠️ Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (Orange Path)
If price breaks and closes below 98.00
Watch for retest rejection to confirm
Target: 97.15 support
This setup aligns with the overall HTF bearish bias and would signal downside continuation.
🧠 Final Notes
• 98.00 is the line in the sand for short-term direction
• Blue path is valid only on confirmed breakout; orange path is trend aligned
• Let price action at this key level confirm before committing
DXY 1H Sell AnalysisThe dollar index has induced (IDM) and taken out the buy side liquidity, after that the market rapidly came back in with high volume creating a gap. Now we focus on the Price leg it created which has 1H order block +_ fvg, if/when price pulls back to area (1H OB + fvg) then will have selling or buying opportunities on ***USD pairs and vice versa this coming week.
On the edge of massive inflation or complete collapse. Even though SPX and Bitcoin are at macro life-cycle top trends, it appears there is panic buying on the potential threat of impending inflation. Institutional ETFs, 401K crypto investments, and negative dollar sentiment may be giving rise to weakening of the dollar.
Simultaneously, the Trump administration and the Fed appear to be attempting to head off a potential recession by trying to stimulate growth via quantitative easing. Long-term, this will contribute to a much sharper collapse, but it appears the financiers are keeping us in line with the traditional 4 year cycle and driving equities and crypto against massive selling at legacy market tops.
It will be quite a ride so expect massive volatility until .96 breaks down or the current bottom trend since 2008 is regained. I have the determinant factors for bull or bear clearly delineated to offer a clear picture to those who are feeling confused about overall market direction. If the weekly stochastic RSI does cross downward and we confirm below .96, the market rally will continue in line with the standard 4 year cycle and should see the bear arriving in early 2026 unless DXY 17 year bottom trend is regained and recession abruptly cuts off the cycle.