DXY 4H – Bullish Reversal Setup from FVG Zone | Target 98.63Technical Analysis
Downtrend Channel (Bearish Structure)
Price has been moving inside a descending channel (highlighted in red).
Recently, it touched the lower boundary and formed a rounded bottom pattern (possible reversal signal).
Trendline Breakout
A short-term downtrend line has been broken to the upside.
This suggests momentum is shifting from bearish to bullish.
Fair Value Gap (FVG Zone)
Price is currently testing an FVG zone around 97.00–97.28.
This zone acts as a potential entry area for long trades.
Entry, Stop Loss, and Target
Entry Point: 97.28 – 97.27
Stop Loss: 96.90 (below FVG zone support)
Target Point: 98.63
Risk–Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:3 → good setup.
Potential Scenario
If price holds above the FVG zone and doesn’t break below 96.90, we may see a bullish move toward 98.63.
But if the FVG fails and price closes below 96.90, it could resume the downtrend.
✅ Summary:
Market structure shows a possible bullish reversal after a prolonged downtrend.
A clean long setup is planned: Buy near 97.27 → Stop 96.90 → Target 98.63.
Confirmation needed: Strong bullish candle closing above the FVG zone
Trade ideas
Dollar Weekly WrapThe dollar ripped to fresh lows early in the week on the FOMC spark and is now set to close with a heavy bearish rejection candle.
Next week’s macro stack:
Tue – U.S. PMI flash
Thu – Q2 GDP final and Durable Goods
Fri – Personal Income/Spending and PCE
Price sits just below a five-week liquidity shelf around the 98.00 area.
Technically the market is oversold near the lower range, so high probability to target next week 98ich highs and lower on cross pairs. lets see how it will play out!
Dollar Bloodbath = Risk On Assets Rally?Dollar Fundamentals:
The dollar posted modest gains on Friday due to higher T-note yields, which have strengthened the dollar’s interest rate differentials.
The University of Michigan US Sep consumer sentiment index fell more than expected to a 4-month low causing the weakening of the dollar.
Limiting the upside in the dollar are the increased expectations for Fed easing through year-end. The dollar is also being undercut by concerns over Fed independence, which could prompt foreign investors to dump dollar assets as President Trump attempts to fire Fed Governor Cook, and by Stephen Miran’s intention to be a Fed Governor.
What Can We Expect Going Forward?
- Due To High Resistance Over Multiple Weeks, There Will Be Massive Levels Volatility, Aiming To Trap The Retail Traders
- Next Week Wednesday Will Determine How Volatile Dollar Will Be. Anything More Than A .25 Basis Point Decline Will Cause Turmoil For Dollar.
- This Will Lead Risk-On Assets (e.g. GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD) Rallying Up Into Premium Arrays
Prices To Keep An Eye On:
- 99.078 (Last Line Of Defence)
- 96.377 Major Sellside Liquidity
- Medium-Term Draw To 95.716 - 94.313 HTF Array
GBPUSD
Fundamentals :
UK gross domestic product remained unchanged in July after growing 0.4% in June, the Office for National Statistics said, as manufacturing output, which makes up 9% of the economy, dropped by 1.3% on the month.
The BoE is widely expected to keep its benchmark Bank Rate unchanged on September 18, after a split decision to lower the rate to 4% in August.
What To Expect Going Into Next Week?
- Increased Volatility
- Trigger HTF Stop Losses
- Unusually High Levels Of Manipulation
Price Points To Keep A Eye On:
- 1.35950 Buyside Liquidity
- 1.36760 - 1.37036 Longer Term Premium Array
- 1.34458 Mean Threshold (Last Line Of Defence)
DOLLAR/GOLD/RATESDXY is sitting at a key monthly support.
Gold is getting extremely hot.
is it time for a flip? majority sentiment feels like gold is going up forever (i agree to an extent, but im not against some pullback/higher lows first)
FED mentioned inflation was a bit sticky.
sharing purely to see how she ages
GOLD = red
DXY = BLUE/BLACK
The dollar making fresh yearly lows for the FedThe dollar making fresh yearly lows yesterday for the Fed decision. 95 looks close. At some point the dollar will be on sale. Last time Trump was elected the dollar went on sale in early 2018 after a year of selling off. Will the dollar be on sale next year?
Bearish reversal off pullback resistanceUS Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 97.36
1st Support: 96.47
1st Resistance: 98.12
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DXYDXY maintains a bearish bias, trading below last week’s open and confirming weakness with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Commitment of Traders (COT) data shows non-commercial traders reducing long positions and adding to shorts, reinforcing the downside outlook. As long as price holds beneath the current week open, bearish momentum is expected to persist, with any rallies into resistance or supply zones offering opportunities to align with the prevailing trend.
Dollar Index (DXY) – Pre-FOMC Rangebound PlayPrice is boxed between 96.20 and 96.40 as market makers build volume on both sides ahead of the Fed.
Key Levels
• 96.40 – top of the current node, first spot for squeeze fuel.
• 96.20 – base of the range, stop pockets just beneath.
Until the statement drops, expect tight, whipsaw action—classic pre-FOMC positioning. Patience over prediction.
US Dollar Index - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermM15 - Strong bearish move.
No opposite signs.
Currently it looks like a pullback is happening.
Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold.
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USD Index Technical Outlook – Key Buy & Sell LevelsThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading inside a clear downward channel, showing a bearish market structure. Price is hovering near 98.23, just below the key resistance zone between 98.5 – 99.2, where Fibonacci retracement levels (0.382, 0.5, and 0.618) also align, making it a strong supply area. As long as price remains below this zone, the bias stays bearish, with potential downside targets at 97.5 and then 96.5, in line with the channel support and Fibonacci extensions. However, if buyers manage to push above 99.2, it would signal a possible trend reversal and shift the outlook towards bullish continuation. Overall, the structure suggests that the U.S. Dollar Index is more likely to face rejection near resistance and continue lower in the short term.
🔴 Sell Zone (Short Setup)
- 98.50 – 99.20 is a strong resistance area where price aligns with the Fibonacci retracement (0.382 – 0.618) and the upper channel trendline.
- Sell Trigger: If price shows rejection (bearish candles, wicks, or reversal patterns) within this zone.
🟢 Buy Zone (Long Setup)
- 97.50 – 96.50 area is the channel support and also near Fibonacci extension levels.
- Buy Trigger: Look for bullish confirmation (bounce, bullish engulfing, or rejection wicks).
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
DXY vs. EURUSD – Pre-FOMC DivergenceDollar Index (DXY)
Yesterday’s move was fully absorbed inside a tight range, leaving the internal range high at 99.804 ahead of the Fed meeting.
Liquidity is at 98.00 stacked above that zone; market makers could easily run the stops toward the 98 handle before any larger downside move.
EURUSD
Meanwhile, EURUSD broke out of its major range, giving us a new weekly structure with a key reference low at 1.13914.
Cross-Market View
This sets up a classic divergence:
Dollar – trapped in a premium sell range, heavy liquidity overhead.
Euro – fresh upside structure.
For cross-pairs this often means sharp pullbacks or erratic price action as we approach the FOMC decision.
Trade Notes
Stay nimble and keep stops tight.
Weekly Review: Dollar Weakness, Equities Rally, Crypto at resis'Abstract
This week’s market action painted a consistent story: the dollar fell hard, global yields softened, and equities rallied toward resistance.
Meanwhile, commodities (oil, gold, copper) strengthened, supporting a reflationary tone. The main caution flag: volatility gauges (VIX & VVIX) are rising, hinting that this risk‑on rally might not be bullet‑proof.
In crypto, BTC and ETH tested overhead resistance with weak volume — optimism is there, but conviction is not.
🚨 Special Focus: September 17th Fed Cut
The Federal Reserve’s September 17th policy decision is the most important catalyst this week. A rate cut at 2 PM EST has direct and immediate implications for all the moves outlined below:
Dollar Impact: Cuts weaken the dollar further, amplifying this week’s oversold DXY.
Yields: A cut locks in the recent fall in bond yields, making equities and gold more attractive.
Equities: Would justify current rallies but also risks looking like “policy panic”, which can spur volatility.
Commodities: Oil and Gold respond positively to looser policy → reflation + hedging.
Crypto: Historically benefits from Fed easing, but watch if BTC can actually break resistance when liquidity improves.
Interpretation: September 17th could either validate the risk‑on rally, or reverse it sharply if markets fear the Fed is cutting because economic weakness is worse than expected. Traders should mark 2 PM EST as a volatility event across Dollar, Yields, Equities, Commodities, and Crypto.
👉 Chart reference: US10Y
1. Dollar & FX: Oversold Break
DXY dropped to ~96.6, oversold on RSI (26) after repeated breaks of structure.
EURUSD surged past 1.18, entering overbought momentum.
USDJPY and USDCAD both slipped lower, aligning with dollar weakness.
USDINR weakened to 88.0 → 87.85 POI, showing INR strength matched with NIFTY breakout.
Interpretation: The dollar is oversold and losing momentum — normally bullish for risk assets. But extreme RSI means a technical bounce is possible.
👉 Chart here: DXY / EURUSD
2. Yields: Relief for Equities
US10Y at 4.03%, US30Y at 4.65% — both off highs, easing pressure on stocks.
CA10Y fell to 3.16%, tailwind for CAD and TSX.
IN10Y steady ~6.49%, supportive backdrop for India.
Interpretation: Lower yields = fresh air for equities. Bonds validating a mild risk‑on bias.
👉 Chart here: US10Y / Global Yields
3. U.S. Equities: Bulls in Control
S&P 500 at 6607, up ~2.9% this week, testing resistance.
Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.5%, now overbought on RSI.
Dow Jones up 1.7%, steady breadth support.
Interpretation: U.S. indices are riding the yield drop, but now pressing major resistance zones. Easy money for bulls is fading — the next leg requires stronger conviction.
👉 Chart here: SPX (NDX and DJI showing similar characteristic on their respective charts)
4. Global Equities: India & Canada Stand Out
NIFTY broke to 25,239, clean resistance breakout, INR strength aligned.
TSX surged 3.7% with oil, CAD, and yields falling in sync.
EuroStoxx (SX5E) consolidated flat — showing Europe still lagging.
Interpretation: The best relative strength came from India and Canada. Europe lagged, lacking energy leverage.
👉 Chart here: NIFTY / TSX
5. Commodities: Reflation Pulse
Oil climbed to $64.6, breaking resistance.
Gold at $3695 (+2.6%), safe‑haven demand still alive.
Copper to $4.70, break higher supportive for growth assets.
Interpretation: Energy and metals are supporting the equity rally. Gold rising alongside = investors hedging tail risk too.
👉 Chart here: Oil / Gold
6. Volatility: Under the Hood
VIX back up to 16.4, rising after being crushed.
VVIX surged to 104, volatility of vol is warning of unstable positioning.
IndiaVIX collapsed below 11, reflecting too much complacency locally.
Interpretation: While equities scream “bull!”, vol warns risk management is key. This is not free money.
👉 Chart here: VIX
7. Crypto: Resistance Check
BTC at 116.6k and ETH at 4.5k: both testing resistance with weak volumes.
BNB surged +5.7%, outperformed majors.
SOL held above 228–236, neutral bias.
XRP stuck near 3.0, chopping sideways.
Interpretation: Trend is up in sympathy with equities, but risk of rejection at resistance is very real. Without stronger volumes, crypto remains a “show me” trade.
👉 Chart here: BTC
💡 Big Picture Takeaway
Dollar tanking = equity and commodity rally fuel.
Yields easing = confirms risk‑on conditions.
Equities at resistance with rising vol = bulls in control, but fragility building.
Crypto is lagging in volume — it benefits from macro tailwind but not leading.
Best relative strength: NIFTY, TSX, Oil, Gold.
Fed rate cut on Sep 17 = the true decision point for trend continuation or reversal.
🎯 Conclusion — Risk‑On, But Fed Holds the Key
Markets rewarded risk this week as the dollar collapsed and yields faded. But overbought equities, crypto resistances, and rising volatility gauges warn that the move is not bullet‑proof.
The September 17th Fed cut at 2 PM is the ultimate test. If the cut is seen as proactive stimulus, the rally has room to extend. If it’s read as a panic signal, what looks like risk‑on could swiftly unwind.
✅ Bias for the coming week: constructive risk‑on until the Fed cut, then stand ready for sharp volatility.
📌 For traders: Buy dips in leaders (NIFTY, TSX, commodities) before the Fed — reduce leverage into decision. For investors: Stay allocated with hedges in vol and gold.
ICEUS:DXY FX_IDC:USDINR CMCMARKETS:USDCAD CMCMARKETS:EURUSD TVC:US10Y CBOE:SPX NASDAQ:NDX DJ:DJI NSE:NIFTY TSX:TSX TVC:SX5E NYMEX:CL1! OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:VIX CRYPTO:BTCUSD
LIQUIDITY SWEEP ON DXY BEFORE FALLINGIn this weekend dollar index analysis presentation, my thesis is sideways liquidity sweep before a daily bear flag breakout to the downside. Momentum and RSI on the higher timeframe are still to downside suggesting more selling. Price is still trapped below all our moving averages confirming our trend bias. On the weekly time frame we have a couple of inverted candles at a fib 0.618 support zone suggesting a likely reversal from a higher low but I think these inverted candles are liquidity sweeps from the 0.382 fib retrace resistance level. The daily chart has a strong shooting star which initiated selling pressure to the current trendline support level at 97.432 where our last daily candle was a doji indecision or pause.
In the coming first trading week of September, I will be watching for clear break of the trendline on the daily chart and a confirmed breakout of the fib 0.618 support zone at 97.187 for an initial target of 96.702 and final target of 96.155.
Thank you and have a great profitable trading new month. Cheers!!
USD Index to fall fast - Mar-a-largo AccordUSD Index to fall fast - Mar-a-largo Accord
Dr Stephen Miran (Whitehouse Chief Economic advisor) set the plan for a weaker USD going forward and vast tariffs to rebalance the US trade deficit.
Yellow arrow indicates the start of 2025 and the trade tariffs. Red arrow indicates likely downward breakout of the long-term Uptrend support line.
Hmmm, DXYThere is something quite telling about the DXY that has me rubbing my chin. If the DXY continues it's downtrend this year and even next year, what would it mean for assets against the dollar, especially crypto currencies, mainly Bitcoin? Typically, Bitcoin's 4 year cycle is bearish on the 4th year but that was for the last 15 or so years when the dollar was in an uptrend. What would happen on the fourth year for Bitcoin during a crashing DXY? Is it safe to hold crypto currencies this end of cycle? I have a feeling that if the DXY continues to fall, crypto will continue to rise even during the 4th year when the bears usually take over. The take over may happen, but with a minor correction (32.8 possibly) that whiplashes a bit more than it trends, before it trends again. Stay tuned!






















