DOLLAR INDEX DOLLAR index at exactly 12;30 gave us a clear sell which gave gold buyers the opportunty to go long from 3475 level to 3530 and extending its gain on daily
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial index that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It is widely used to gauge the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar in global currency markets.
Key Facts About DXY:
The index is calculated as a weighted geometric average of the US dollar’s exchange rates with six major currencies:
Euro (EUR): 57.6% weight (the largest component)
Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6% weight
British Pound (GBP): 11.9% weight
Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1% weight
Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2% weight
Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6% weight
The DXY rises when the US dollar strengthens against these currencies and falls when it weakens.
It was created in 1973 following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system to provide a standardized benchmark for the dollar's value.
The index is maintained and published by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
Why DXY Matters:
The DXY is a key indicator for traders, economists, and investors to assess the dollar’s performance globally.
It affects pricing in global trade and commodities, which are often denominated in US dollars, such as oil and gold.
Movements in the DXY influence monetary policy decisions, financial markets, and global economic dynamics.
In essence, the DXY is the benchmark for measuring the US dollar’s strength against a basket of significant global currencies, providing a comprehensive picture of its international value.
UNITED STATE ECONOMIC DATA REPORT TODAY.
The latest US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is 48.7 for August 2025, slightly below the forecast of 49.0 but above the 48.0 previous A PMI below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, so this points to a modest slowing but less severe than expected.
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Index stands at 63.7, down from 65.1 forecasted and marginally below the 64.8 previous data . This index measures prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials and inputs, and a reading above 50 signals rising input costs. The current elevated level suggests continued inflationary pressures on manufacturing costs, although slightly easing.
Summary:
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 (contracting modestly, slightly better than forecast)
US ISM Manufacturing Prices: 63.7 (input costs rising, but showing some easing)
These indicators suggest the US manufacturing sector is experiencing a mild contraction, with inflationary cost pressures moderating somewhat but still elevated. This mixed data can influence Federal Reserve policymaking, signaling slower growth but persistent price pressures.
The COMEX gold price today, September 2, 2025, is trading near $3,550 to $3,567 per troy ounce. The gold futures recently surged, hitting new record highs above $3,550, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Gold has gained over 1% on the day, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid dollar weakness and inflation concerns.
In summary:
COMEX Gold price around $3,550 - $3,567 per ounce (September 2, 2025)
Recent gains driven by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks
Price at record levels, reflecting strong investor interest
#dollar #dxy #gold #xauusd
DXY trade ideas
Break of dynamic resistance or rejection?It’s been a long time that this resistance has prevented the Dollar Index from reaching the 100 level, and the price has been making strong efforts to break through and establish itself above this zone. At the end of the week, we have a very important news release for the US dollar, so we need to see how the price reacts to this resistance in the coming days.
Dollar Index - back to 100Dollar Index headed back to the 100 area.
That's our forecast based on structure analysis.
If you didn't manage to get in yet, that is ok. The first move is never the first easiest setup to take. However, if the move will continue to 100, as we expect, it should at least give us another buy opportunity at the break of the trend. Anyways, the first move is gone now as the price has almost already moved the average amount of pips it usually moves on an average daily impulse.
Probably it will go a bit further to confirm the break today and then start consolidating for the next impulse.
Stay tuned for more updates as we'll try to post the next buy setup before it happens.
DXY – Big Week Ahead, Watch These Zones-Dollar still stuck in a range. No need to guess, just watch the heavy levels:
-96.66 = bullish liquidity zone
-99.80 = bearish liquidity zone
-This week is packed with heavy news:
-NFP Friday – jobs report could shake markets hard
-Fed credibility under fire – politics trying to pressure the central bank
-Be careful with dollar pairs — market makers love stop hunts around news.
Best to stay patient → let price show which zone breaks first.
The DXY chart for my EURUSD & EURFUTURES tradeCant see it all but theres a perfectly formed very long leg which is 200 bars long and 1000pips, then a perfectly formed 12hr ascending flag, 3 different trendlines which have even HH HLs on 2 of them, and lastly a 2hr support turned resistance entry at the 12hr flag retest after the breakout.
DXY: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 97.275 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US job numbers this week. Keeping an eye on USD and US indicesWe are keeping a close eye on the US job numbers this week, as those fall into the Fed's spotlight. The expectations are low, so it would be interesting to see if the numbers can get even lower. Let's take a look.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
FX_IDC:EURUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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DXY Forecast: H&S Continuation Pattern?The DXY rebound between July and August has shaped a head and shoulders pattern. The chart is now testing the downside breakout, with the daily RSI turning bearish and slipping below the 50 level. A clean break below the 97.50 support could extend losses toward 97.20 and 96.50, with the full head and shoulders pattern pointing to a potential move down toward the 95.00–94.50 zone.
On the upside, a rebound above the 98.00 level would suggest some bullish recovery. However, a sustained move above 100.20 is needed to confidently shift the outlook toward a longer-term bullish reversal.
Key Events This Week
• ISM PMIs: to clarify US economic activity (Tuesday–Thursday)
• US NFPs and their impact on rate cut expectations and DXY price action (Friday)
• Effects of US trade and legal developments, EU political shifts, and Middle East escalations on risk sentiment
- Razan Hilal, CMT
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently exhibiting a bearish trend, driven by a combination of dovish Federal Reserve expectations, weakening economic confidence, and technical breakdowns. Market sentiment has shifted toward potential rate cuts, with investor concerns over the Fed’s independence and rising U.S. fiscal risks adding further pressure.
DXY Outlook – Bearish Lean, Choppy SetupDollar had a hard run the last three weeks with heavy bearish candles on the weekly. Price action has been messy, not easy to just get in and ride. My bias is still bearish, but I’m also looking at the bigger picture.
On the monthly chart, key distribution sits under 94.095 and we haven’t reached it yet. Over the last two months price has been filling the bullish order block around 95.971 order block on the dollar index. If the market maker decides to move, it could go fast once the data lines up, whether in the first or second week.
Right now we are sitting in a bearish volume channel lower end. Selling late is not smart because most of the move has already passed. That doesn’t mean there are no trades, but it does mean higher frequency and tighter risk until the next clear setup.
From the economic side the jobs data is weak with only 73K added last month, which keeps pressure on the Fed to cut. The Fed is also seen as politicized, which hurts credibility and weighs on the dollar. Markets are already pricing a September cut and analysts are leaning bearish. At the same time inflation is still sticky near 2.9 percent while jobs are slowing, which leaves the Fed boxed in. Headline PCE is flat, not strong enough to flip hawkish and not weak enough to go fully dovish. That mix can trap the dollar between 97 and 100 until one side breaks.
Best move is to keep watching the data closely before trading dollar markets. Bias stays bearish, but chop risk is high.
DXY Dollar Index: Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# DXY Dollar Index: Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast
Asset Class: US Dollar Index (DXY)
Current Price: 97.855 (as of August 30, 2025, 12:59 AM UTC+4)
Analysis Date: August 31, 2025
Market Context: Post-correction consolidation phase with emerging bullish momentum
Executive Summary
The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 97.855, showing signs of stabilization after a significant decline from yearly highs. Our multi-dimensional technical analysis reveals a critical juncture where multiple timeframes converge, presenting both intraday scalping opportunities and swing trading setups. The analysis incorporates advanced pattern recognition, wave theory, and momentum indicators to provide actionable trading insights.
Current Market Landscape
The DXY exchange rate rose to 97.8549 on August 29, 2025, up 0.04% from the previous session, indicating short-term stabilization. However, over the past month, the United States Dollar has weakened 1.96%, and is down by 3.81% over the last 12 months. This presents a complex technical picture where short-term bullish momentum may be developing within a broader corrective phase.
The DXY Dollar Index Futures kicked off the new week with a strong bullish candle, signaling renewed upward momentum, supported by non-commercial traders reducing their bearish bets according to recent COT data.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave Theory Analysis
Based on recent Elliott Wave patterns, the descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse Elliott Wave pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43.
Wave Count Structure:
Primary Wave: Currently in corrective Wave 4 of larger degree cycle
Intermediate Count: Completing 5-wave decline from 2025 highs
Near-term: Potential Wave 5 completion around 96.50-97.00 zone
Elliott Wave Targets:
Immediate Support: 96.80-97.00 (Wave equality zone)
Key Resistance: 99.40-99.80 (Previous Wave ((ii)) high)
Major Resistance: 101.50-102.00 (Fibonacci confluence)
Harmonic Pattern Analysis
Active Patterns:
1. Potential Bullish Bat Pattern forming on 4H-Daily timeframe
- X to A leg: 103.50 to 96.20
- A to B retracement: 38.2% at 98.98
- B to C projection: 88.6% of AB at 97.15
- Completion zone: 96.50-96.80 (88.6% XA retracement)
2. Bearish Gartley Pattern (Completed)
- Generated sell signals at 99.20-99.50 range
- Currently in profit-taking phase
Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
Strong Support: 96.50-96.80 (Multiple harmonic convergence)
Resistance Cluster: 98.80-99.20 (38.2% and 50% retracements)
Major Resistance: 101.20-101.80 (61.8% golden ratio)
Wyckoff Theory Assessment
Current Phase: Potential Accumulation Phase (Spring Test)
Distribution Phase: Completed at 2025 highs (103.50+ region)
Markdown Phase: May-August 2025 decline
Current Position: Testing Spring levels around 96.50-97.50
Wyckoff Signals:
- Volume divergence suggests smart money accumulation
- Price action showing reduced selling pressure
- Potential for markup phase if 98.50 resistance breaks
W.D. Gann Analysis
Gann Square of 9:
- Natural resistance at 98 (perfect square)
- Strong support at 96 (key Gann level)
- Next major target: 100 (psychological and Gann confluence)
Gann Time Theory:
- Current time cycle suggests reversal window: September 3-10, 2025
- Major time square due: October 2025 (90-degree angle)
- Price-Time balance suggests equilibrium around 97.50
Gann Angles:
- 1x1 angle from August lows: 97.20 (active support)
- 2x1 resistance line: 98.60
- 1x2 support angle: 96.40
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis
Current Cloud Status:
- Price below Tenkan-sen (97.95) - Short-term bearish
- Kijun-sen at 98.40 acting as dynamic resistance
- Cloud (Kumo) resistance: 99.20-99.80
- Future Cloud: Thinning, suggesting volatility ahead
Ichimoku Signals:
- TK Cross: Pending bullish crossover if price holds above 97.50
- Cloud breakout target: 99.80+
- Support levels: Kijun-sen (98.40), Tenkan-sen (97.95)
Technical Indicators Analysis
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI: 42.5 (Oversold but not extreme)
4H RSI: 38.2 (Approaching oversold territory)
1H RSI: 45.8 (Neutral zone)
Divergence Alert: Bullish divergence forming on 4H timeframe
Bollinger Bands (BB)
Current Position: Lower third of bands
Band Width: Contracting (low volatility environment)
Squeeze Setup: Potential breakout within 3-5 trading days
Direction Bias: Slight bullish based on band position
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Daily VWAP: 98.12 (resistance)
Weekly VWAP: 98.85 (major resistance)
Monthly VWAP: 99.45 (significant overhead supply)
Moving Averages Confluence
SMA 20: 98.15 (immediate resistance)
EMA 50: 98.75 (intermediate resistance)
SMA 200: 100.20 (major trend line)
Current Status: Below all major MAs (bearish bias)
Candlestick Pattern Recognition
Recent Formations:
1. Doji Star (August 29) - Indecision at support
2. Hammer Pattern (August 30) - Potential reversal signal
3. Bullish Engulfing setup developing
Pattern Implications:
- Short-term reversal signals strengthening
- Volume confirmation needed for validation
- Risk-reward favors long positions with tight stops
Market Structure & Support/Resistance
Key Support Levels:
1. 97.20-97.40 - Immediate support (Gann 1x1 angle)
2. 96.80-97.00 - Major support (Harmonic completion)
3. 96.20-96.50 - Critical support (Previous reaction low)
4. 95.50-95.80 - Ultimate support (2024 major low)
Key Resistance Levels:
1. 98.15-98.40 - Immediate resistance (SMA 20 + Kijun-sen)
2. 98.80-99.20 - Intermediate resistance (Fibonacci + VWAP)
3. 99.40-99.80 - Major resistance (Elliott Wave + Cloud)
4. 101.20-101.80 - Long-term resistance (Multiple confluences)
Trading Strategy & Time Frame Analysis
Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H Charts)
Bullish Scenario (Probability: 60%)
Entry Zone: 97.40-97.60 (on pullback)
Stop Loss: 97.15 (below harmonic completion)
Target 1: 98.15 (Daily SMA 20)
Target 2: 98.60 (Gann 2x1 angle)
Target 3: 99.20 (Fibonacci resistance)
Risk-Reward: 1:2.5
Bearish Scenario (Probability: 40%)
Entry Zone: 98.40-98.60 (on failed breakout)
Stop Loss: 99.00 (above key resistance)
Target 1: 97.60 (immediate support)
Target 2: 96.80 (Harmonic target)
Target 3: 96.20 (Major support)
Risk-Reward: 1:2.8
Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly Charts)
Primary Long Setup:
Accumulation Zone: 96.50-97.50
Confirmation: Break above 98.80 with volume
Swing Target 1: 100.20 (SMA 200)
Swing Target 2: 102.50 (61.8% retracement)
Ultimate Target: 105.00 (2025 high retest)
Stop Loss: Below 96.20
Position Sizing: 2% risk per trade
Time Horizon: 4-8 weeks
Alternative Short Setup:
Entry Condition: Failure at 99.50 resistance
Confirmation: Break below 97.00 support
Target 1: 95.50 (2024 low)
Target 2: 93.80 (Extended projection)
Stop Loss: Above 100.00
Time Horizon: 6-10 weeks
Weekly Trading Plan (September 2-6, 2025)
Monday-Tuesday: Consolidation Expected
Range: 97.20-98.40
Strategy: Range trading, fade extremes
Key Events: Watch for volume expansion
Wednesday-Thursday: Potential Breakout
Catalyst: Economic data releases
Scenarios: Break above 98.60 (bullish) or below 97.00 (bearish)
Strategy: Breakout trading with confirmation
Friday: Trend Continuation
Focus: Weekly close positioning
Strategy: Hold winners, cut losers
Risk Management: Reduce position sizes before weekend
Risk Management Framework
Position Sizing Rules:
Intraday: Maximum 1% risk per trade
Swing: Maximum 2% risk per trade
Portfolio: Total DXY exposure not exceeding 5%
Stop Loss Guidelines:
Intraday: 25-30 pips maximum
Swing: 80-120 pips based on volatility
Time-based: Exit if no progress in 5 trading days
Profit Taking Strategy:
Scale out: 50% at first target, 30% at second, 20% runner
Trailing stops: Implement after 1:1 risk-reward achieved
Weekend rule: Close 70% of intraday positions before Friday close
Market Psychology & Sentiment
Current Sentiment Indicators:
COT Data: Non-commercial traders reducing bearish bets
Options Flow: Put-call ratio normalizing from extreme levels
Technical Sentiment: Oversold conditions with emerging reversal signals
Psychological Levels:
98.00: Round number resistance (psychological barrier)
100.00: Major psychological milestone
95.00: Critical psychological support
External Factors & Market Context
Geopolitical Considerations:
- Federal Reserve policy stance monitoring required
- Global economic data impacts (ECB, BOJ decisions)
- Geopolitical tensions affecting safe-haven demand
Economic Calendar Watch:
- NFP data (First Friday of month)
- Fed speakers and policy minutes
- Inflation data releases
- Global PMI readings
Advanced Pattern Alerts
Bull Trap Warning:
Setup: False break above 99.00 followed by immediate reversal
Confirmation: Heavy volume on break, light volume on decline
Response: Wait for 4H close below 98.20 before shorting
Bear Trap Alert:
Setup: False break below 96.80 with quick recovery
Confirmation: Immediate buying pressure and volume surge
Response: Long entry on return above 97.20 with tight stops
Technology Integration
Automated Alerts Setup:
1. Price Alerts: 96.80, 97.50, 98.60, 99.20
2. RSI Alerts: <30 (oversold), >70 (overbought)
3. Volume Alerts: 150% above 20-day average
4. Pattern Alerts: Harmonic completion, Elliott Wave targets
Trading Platform Integration:
TradingView: Custom indicator stack with all mentioned tools
MT4/MT5: Expert Advisor for automated entries
Risk Management: Position sizing calculators
Conclusion & Forecast Summary
The DXY Dollar Index stands at a critical technical juncture with multiple analytical frameworks suggesting a potential reversal from current levels. The convergence of Elliott Wave completion zones, harmonic pattern targets, and Wyckoff accumulation signals creates a compelling risk-reward setup for both intraday and swing traders.
Primary Scenario (65% probability): Consolidation between 96.80-98.60 followed by breakout to 100.20+ levels over the next 4-6 weeks.
Alternative Scenario (35% probability): Failed recovery leading to extended decline toward 95.50-94.00 zone.
Trading Bias: Cautiously bullish with defensive positioning until confirmation above 98.80 resistance cluster.
Key Success Factors:
- Strict adherence to risk management protocols
- Multiple timeframe confirmation before major position increases
- Continuous monitoring of Federal Reserve policy developments
- Adaptation to changing market structure and volatility conditions
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*This analysis incorporates advanced technical methodologies including Elliott Wave Theory, Harmonic Patterns, Wyckoff Analysis, Gann Theory, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, combined with traditional indicators and market structure analysis. All price targets and support/resistance levels are derived from mathematical relationships and historical price behavior patterns.*
Risk Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders should conduct their own analysis and consider their risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
DXY Possible sell on pullback!Back to back 3 weekly pin bar on DXY with series of lower high's putting pressure on the weekly support level. From the Monthly, it is a long term bear market, after the previous monthly pullback, price started to continue to drop which signals potential new impulse on the monthly. As the monthly close, the price is on the intraday support with potential for initial bounce. As weekly market is creating series of higher low, there is a possibility of 50% pullback and liquidity grab to potentially break the weekly support.
DXYSuccess in the FX, indices, and gold markets comes from discipline, not luck — I win by combining deep market analysis with strict risk management, keeping emotions out of trading, and focusing on long-term consistency rather than quick gains. Every trade is based on research, patience, and clear strategy, allowing me to grow steadily while protecting capital.